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Saturday 10/28/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.
- Thread starter Pesos
- Start date
Dr Bob
Georgia Tech @ Clemson
Clemson has defensive lineman that can get in the backfield quickly, which can cause problems for option teams. The Tigers have allowed just 31 total points to Georgia Tech the last two years but the Yellow Jackets have a pretty good defensive this season, so they’re capable of hanging close in a game that will be shortened by an offense that eats up the clock – I project just 129 total plays.
Duke @ Virginia Tech
Duke’s offense has struggled all season and this is a bad match up for the Blue Devils against an aggressive Virginia Tech defense that plays tight coverage close to the line of scrimmage and dares teams to try to beat them over the top in one-on-one matchups. The Hokies only allow 45.3% completions but they give up 14.2 yards per completion, which his high. However, Duke quarterback Daniel Jones is completing just 54.5% of his passes Blue Devils average just 10.5 yards per completion so it’s not likely that the Blue Devils can take advantage of the Hokies’ tendency to give up big pass plays. The only teams to score more than 10 points against Virginia Tech were West Virginia (24), East Carolina (17) and Clemson (31) and all of those teams have quarterbacks that can connect with receivers down the field. The other 4 teams that the Hokies have faced have combined for a TOTAL of 17 points (4.3 per game) and Duke more resembles that group offensively. My math model favors Virginia Tech by 19 points and I like the matchup.
No Carolina St. @ Notre Dame
NC State has played their best in big games with straight up wins in their only two games as an underdog this season (FSU and Louisville) while going 1-4 ATS when favored. However, the line on this game is dead on according to my math model and Notre Dame applies to a 151-74-7 ATS situation. I’ll pass.
UCLA @ Washington
Washington had an extra week to get over their upset loss at Arizona State and that bye week should have the Huskies refocused on winning the Pac-12. The Huskies’ balanced attack should score around their average of 38 points against a mediocre UCLA defense (their 6.4 yppl allowed has come against teams that would average 6.2 yppl against an average defense) and U-Dub’s dominating defense (1.9 yppl better than average) is better than a good UCLA attack that is 1.0 yppl better than average. The number is high but my math model favors Washington to cover and the Huskies would be worth nibbling on if the line gets down to -17 points.
TCU @ Iowa St.
Iowa State is 3-0 with wins at Oklahoma and at Texas Tech since their change at quarterback and this is a dangerous spot for unbeaten TCU, as the Cyclones apply to a 95-33-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. My math model also leans with the dog here, as the math favors TCU by just 5 ½ points. ISU is worth a bar bet at +7 or more.
Penn St. @ Ohio St.
I wish I had an opinion on this game but I really don’t have one. These teams are equally good defensively, with Penn State at 1.5 yards per play better than average (allowed 3.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) and Ohio State also at 1.5 yppl better than average (4.4 yppl against teams that would average 5.9 yppl) but the Buckeyes have actually been better offensively.
Penn State’s 507 yards at 8.4 yards per play against a very good Michigan defense last week is incredibly impressive but the Nittany lions have also struggled at time this season and they averaged just 4.9 yppl in the two games prior to last week against Indiana and Northwestern. Overall, Penn State’s offense has been 1.2 yppl better than average (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) while an improving Ohio State attack has been 1.6 yppl better than average with J.T. Barrett in the game (7.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Barrett has thrown 21 touchdowns against just 1 interception and he’s gained more confidence in his young receivers, which he didn’t have when they lost to Oklahoma early in the season.
My math model actually only favors Ohio State by 6 points but Penn State applies to an 11-44 ATS situation that plays against unbeaten teams (7-0 or better) on the road against a good team with revenge. I’ll pass on this game.
Georgia Tech @ Clemson
Clemson has defensive lineman that can get in the backfield quickly, which can cause problems for option teams. The Tigers have allowed just 31 total points to Georgia Tech the last two years but the Yellow Jackets have a pretty good defensive this season, so they’re capable of hanging close in a game that will be shortened by an offense that eats up the clock – I project just 129 total plays.
Duke @ Virginia Tech
Duke’s offense has struggled all season and this is a bad match up for the Blue Devils against an aggressive Virginia Tech defense that plays tight coverage close to the line of scrimmage and dares teams to try to beat them over the top in one-on-one matchups. The Hokies only allow 45.3% completions but they give up 14.2 yards per completion, which his high. However, Duke quarterback Daniel Jones is completing just 54.5% of his passes Blue Devils average just 10.5 yards per completion so it’s not likely that the Blue Devils can take advantage of the Hokies’ tendency to give up big pass plays. The only teams to score more than 10 points against Virginia Tech were West Virginia (24), East Carolina (17) and Clemson (31) and all of those teams have quarterbacks that can connect with receivers down the field. The other 4 teams that the Hokies have faced have combined for a TOTAL of 17 points (4.3 per game) and Duke more resembles that group offensively. My math model favors Virginia Tech by 19 points and I like the matchup.
No Carolina St. @ Notre Dame
NC State has played their best in big games with straight up wins in their only two games as an underdog this season (FSU and Louisville) while going 1-4 ATS when favored. However, the line on this game is dead on according to my math model and Notre Dame applies to a 151-74-7 ATS situation. I’ll pass.
UCLA @ Washington
Washington had an extra week to get over their upset loss at Arizona State and that bye week should have the Huskies refocused on winning the Pac-12. The Huskies’ balanced attack should score around their average of 38 points against a mediocre UCLA defense (their 6.4 yppl allowed has come against teams that would average 6.2 yppl against an average defense) and U-Dub’s dominating defense (1.9 yppl better than average) is better than a good UCLA attack that is 1.0 yppl better than average. The number is high but my math model favors Washington to cover and the Huskies would be worth nibbling on if the line gets down to -17 points.
TCU @ Iowa St.
Iowa State is 3-0 with wins at Oklahoma and at Texas Tech since their change at quarterback and this is a dangerous spot for unbeaten TCU, as the Cyclones apply to a 95-33-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. My math model also leans with the dog here, as the math favors TCU by just 5 ½ points. ISU is worth a bar bet at +7 or more.
Penn St. @ Ohio St.
I wish I had an opinion on this game but I really don’t have one. These teams are equally good defensively, with Penn State at 1.5 yards per play better than average (allowed 3.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) and Ohio State also at 1.5 yppl better than average (4.4 yppl against teams that would average 5.9 yppl) but the Buckeyes have actually been better offensively.
Penn State’s 507 yards at 8.4 yards per play against a very good Michigan defense last week is incredibly impressive but the Nittany lions have also struggled at time this season and they averaged just 4.9 yppl in the two games prior to last week against Indiana and Northwestern. Overall, Penn State’s offense has been 1.2 yppl better than average (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) while an improving Ohio State attack has been 1.6 yppl better than average with J.T. Barrett in the game (7.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Barrett has thrown 21 touchdowns against just 1 interception and he’s gained more confidence in his young receivers, which he didn’t have when they lost to Oklahoma early in the season.
My math model actually only favors Ohio State by 6 points but Penn State applies to an 11-44 ATS situation that plays against unbeaten teams (7-0 or better) on the road against a good team with revenge. I’ll pass on this game.
