Saturday 1/5/2019 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc

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RICKY TRAN
NBA | Jan 05, 2019
Hornets vs. Nuggets
Nuggets-9½

Ricky's 1* Bonus Play on the Denver Nuggets.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant.

- Revenge. Charlotte is 18-19 and Denver is 25-11. The Hornets though have won four of the last five in this series, including a 113-107 home win in the first matchup back on December 7th.

Key Trends:

- Denver is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 following an ATS win.

- The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest.

- Charlotte is only 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing on two days rest.

- The Hornets are a poor 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the Western Conference.

The verdict: Denver’s won four straight and it faces a banged up Charlotte team that’s off a 38 point home loss to the Mavericks. In my professional opinion, this one has blowout written all over it.

 

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ROB VINCILETTI
NBA | Jan 05, 2019
Hornets vs. Nuggets
Nuggets-9½ -110

The NBA Comp Play is on Denver at 5:00 eastern. The home team has covered the last 4 in this series and the winning team is on a 28-0 spread run. Denver has covered 9 of 11 off a spread win and 4 of 5 with 1 day of rest. They are on a 7-2 spread run. Charlotte was drilled by 38 at home last out and rested road dogs that scored 90 or less at home and allowed 120 or more have failed to cover 85% long term vs a team like Denver that scored 110 or more on the road last out. Charlotte has failed to cover 4 of 5 with 2 days rest, 5 of 6 on the road and 19 of 25 off a loss by 10 or more. Play on The Nuggets in this one.

 

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ROSS BENJAMIN
NCAA-B | Jan 05, 2019
The Citadel vs. Furman
The Citadel+11 -105

 

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Furbookie

nhl tampa bay lightning/san jose sharks ‑115

 

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Tommy King Wins

NBA SACRAMENTO KINGS +7.5

 

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Line Mover Sports

NCAA Basketball TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS ‑11.5

 

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The Oracle

NFL SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +2

 

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Team Underground

NFL HOUSTON TEXANS ‑1.5

 

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Saturday, January 5, 2019

NFC – Seattle at Dallas – 8:15 p.m. (FOX)

Opening Line (12/30/18): Dallas -3, 41 ½

Seattle Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS
Dallas Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Seahawks and Cowboys hooked up at CenturyLink Field in Week 3 as Seattle took care of Dallas, 24-13 as one-point favorites. It was Seattle's first win of the season following an 0-2 start as Russell Wilson threw two touchdown passes for the Seahawks. Seattle jumped out to a 24-6 lead before Dallas scored its only touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

The Cowboys have lost each of the last three matchups with the Seahawks since 2015, while these teams last met in the playoffs in the famous Tony Romo fumble on the snap of the potential game-winning field goal in a 21-20 loss in the 2006 Wild Card round.

Playoff Notes: The Seahawks are back in the playoffs for the sixth time in the last seven seasons after missing the postseason in 2017. Seattle owns a perfect 3-0 record in its previous three Wild Card contests since 2012, while not losing in its first playoff game during this stretch.

Dallas is making its third playoff appearance since 2014, as the Cowboys were knocked out in the divisional playoffs by the Packers in the final seconds in 2016. In its previous appearance in the Wild Card round in 2014, the Cowboys edged past the Lions, 24-20, but failed to cash as six-point favorites.

Total Notes: After starting the season with a 5-2 mark to the 'under,' the Cowboys finished with 'overs' in five of the final nine contests. Dallas hit the 'over' in five of eight games at AT&T Stadium, while going 4-2 to the 'over' as a home favorite.

The Seahawks were also a strong 'under' team to start the season by cashing in six of the first eight games. However, Seattle closed with 'overs' in seven of the last eight contests, including 'overs' in its final three road affairs.

 

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Saturday, January 5, 2019

AFC – Indianapolis at Houston– 4:35 p.m. (ESPN)

Opening Line (12/30/18): Houston -2, 47 ½

Indianapolis Road Record: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
Houston Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS

Head-to-Head: The visitor won and covered both games in the regular season but the first encounter from Indianapolis in Week 4 could’ve and probably should’ve been a tie. Colts head coach Frank Reich decided to go for a first down in overtime and the club missed, which allowed Houston to win 37-34 in the extra session. That victory helped the Texans run off nine straight wins but sure enough, Indy snapped that winning streak and got revenge in Week 14 with a 24-21 road win over Houston.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck owns a 6-4 career record versus Houston which includes a 3-2 mark on the road. The last four meetings at Houston were decided by five points or less.

Playoff Notes: The Colts haven’t been in the playoffs since the 2014 regular season. That season, they defeated the Bengals in the Wild Card round at home before upsetting Denver on the road in the Divisional Playoffs. Unfortunately, the club was blasted 45-7 by the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Indianapolis is 3-3 with Luck in the playoffs, 2-1 in Wild Card games and 1-3 overall on the road.

Houston went 1-1 in last year’s postseason, defeating a short-handed Oakland squad 27-14 at home in the Wild Card before losing 34-16 at Foxboro in the Divisional round. Head coach Bill O’Brien is 1-2 all-time in the playoffs. Houston as a franchise is 3-4 overall, 3-1 at home.

Total Notes: The Texans saw the ‘under’ go 9-7 on the season and 5-3 at home. The defense surrendered 15.3 points per game in their final four at NRG Stadium, which led to a 3-1 ‘under’ record.
Indianapolis saw its total results go 8-8 this season, 4-4 both home and away. The Colts offense was a tad shakier on the road (24.2 PPG) but they posted 28 and 33 points in their last two games, which led to ‘over’ tickets.

Including a split in this year’s regular season meetings, the ‘under’ has gone 6-2 in the past eight encounters between the pair.

 

[bmd1803]

NFL
Long Sheet

Wildcard Round

Saturday, January 5

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INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 6) at HOUSTON (11 - 5) - 1/5/2019, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-3 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (10 - 6) at DALLAS (10 - 6) - 1/5/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 68-46 ATS (+17.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[bmd1803]

NFL

Wildcard Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 5

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 12 games on the road
Indianapolis is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 14 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 7-12-2 ATS in its last 21 games
Houston is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games at home
Houston is 3-8-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 14 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Dallas's last 25 games
Dallas is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games at home
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle

 

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NFL
Dunkel

Wildcard Round


Saturday January 5

Indianapolis @ Houston

Game 101-102
January 5, 2019 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
139.556
Houston
132.938
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 6 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+2); Under

Seattle @ Dallas

Game 103-104
January 5, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
136.197
Dallas
139.080
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 3
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 1
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-1); Over

 

[bmd1803]

By: Brandon DuBreuil

The first Wild Card game on Saturday sees Houston hosting Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 47. The one thing that really jumps out at this matchup is that it features two very good run defenses. Houston is ranked No. 1 in rushing DVOA and Indy comes in at No. 5 when using the same metric. The Texans allow just 82.7 rushing yards per game and the Colts 101.6.

Then there’s the offenses. Houston’s run game has disappeared with just 137 rushing yards on its last 60 carries from running backs. Indianapolis has Marlon Mack, who is coming off a very nice 119-yard performance on Sunday, but he posted just 33 rushing yards on 14 carries the last time these two teams played on Dec. 9. Lamar Miller posted 33 yards on 14 carries in that game that ended 24-21 even though there were 751 yards of total offense.

The earlier matchup between these two division rivals ended 37-34 in a game featured 944 yards of total offense. Both teams have franchise players at quarterback and they will be the ones deciding this game as both teams will likely abandon the run game early. Take the Over 47 before the total grows.

 

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NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on cover %):

1. Bears 12-4 ATS
2. Seahawks 9-5-2 ATS
t3. Saints 10-6 ATS
t3. Browns 10-6 ATS
5. Chiefs 9-6-1 ATS
t6. 6 teams tied at 9-7 ATS (Chargers, Pats, Cowboys, Bengals, Washington, Lions)

 

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NFL's Top OVER Teams (based on Over %):

1. Chiefs 10-5-1
2. Jets 10-6
t3. Falcons 9-7
t3. Giants 9-7
t3. 49ers 9-7
t3. Seahawks 9-7
t3. Buccaneers 9-7
8. Bengals 8-6-2

 

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NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

1. Broncos 12-3-1
2. Patriots 11-5
t3. Lions 10-6
t3. Jaguars 10-6
t3. Vikings 10-6
t4. 8 teams tied at 7-9 (Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys, Texans,Saints, Eagles, Redskins)

 

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Indianapolis at Houston (ESPN, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Bookmaker opened this total at 47 and the number has been pushed up to 48 ½ as of Thursday morning and a couple Las Vegas books have gone to 49. While it’s not rare to see a divisional matchup in the Wild Card round, it doesn’t happen often. Going back to 2004, there have been 10 instances and the ‘under’ has gone 5-4-1 in those contests.

This series has watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 in the last five games between the pair and that includes a 1-1 mark this season. The visitor won both games this regular season and the first encounter from Indianapolis could’ve and probably should’ve been a tie. Colts head coach Frank Reich decided to go for a first down in overtime on his side of the field and the club missed, which allowed Houston to win 37-34 in the extra session. The rematch in Houston watched the Colts avenge that loss with a 24-21 win in Week 14.

Indianapolis outgained Houston in total yards (436-315) in the road win and they also put up more yards (478-466) at home in the Week 4 setback. Looking at the numbers and the eyeball test, it’s clear that the Colts have the better quarterback on the field in Andrew Luck. It’s also clear that the Texans QB Deshaun Watson has taken a beating from Indy, getting sacked 12 times in the two meetings this season.

Watson will be making his first playoff start on Saturday, fortunately for him it’s at home. Luck owns a 3-3 all-time record in the playoffs and he’s 1-3 on the road, with the lone upset coming in 2014 at Denver (24-13). In four road postseason starts, the Colts have been held to 15.5 points per game and the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in those contests.

Houston (15.3 PPG) has been very solid defensively at home, and that’s produced a 5-3 ‘under’ mark at NRG Stadium. The franchise has gone 3-4 all-time in the playoffs, 3-1 at home. In those four home games, we’ve seen averaged combined score of 36 PPG

 

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Seattle at Dallas (FOX, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Although not a divisional game, the primetime contest on Saturday is also a rematch from this year’s regular season and the early action is buying the high side. Bookmaker sent out 41 ½ and the numbers is up to 43 as of Thursday. The pair met in Week 3 from Seattle and the Seahawks captured a 24-13 win over the Cowboys and the ‘under’ (40) was in control for most of the game.

The game was scoreless after the first quarter before Seattle built a 17-3 lead at halftime. Neither the Seahawks (295 yards) or Cowboys (303 yards) could do much offensively and Dallas certainly didn’t help its cause with three turnovers.

A lot has changed since that meeting and that’s part of the reason the total has been pushed up for the second encounter. In the second-half of the season, Seattle found its groove offensively (30 PPG) behind the top-ranked rushing offense (160 YPG) and that production helped the ‘over’ go 7-1.

Dallas hasn’t been as potent offensively, but we’ve seen some sparks from the club since it acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper from Oakland. The Cowboys averaged 22.1 PPG with him in the lineup and that led to a 7-2 record. Without, the unit averaged 18.3 PPG and went 3-4. We’ve definitely seen some clunkers from the Dallas offense this season, in particular a recent shutout loss at Indianapolis in Week 15.

QB Dak Prescott takes a lot of criticism in Dallas and deservingly but the key to the offense is running back Ezekiel Elliot. The club is 6-1 this season when he gets 20-plus carries and the lone loss came by three points in overtime. In those games, the ‘Boys have averaged 25.3 PPG and the ‘over’ went 5-2.

Defensively, the Cowboys own the better defense on paper (329 YPG, 20.2 PPG) but their current form is a tad alarming. While I won’t put too much stock into the meaningless shootout at the Giants last week, it should be noted that Dallas has allowed 26 PPG and 398 YPG in its last three games overall.

Prescott has only played in one postseason game and he was productive (302 yards, 3 TDs) but Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay proved to be too much in their 34-31 win in the 2016-17 Divisional Playoff matchup.

While Dak lacks playoff experience, the same can’t be said for Seattle QB Russell Wilson. The Seahawks are 8-4 in the playoffs with him under center which includes a respectable 3-2 mark on the road. The ‘over’ has gone 7-5 in those games while Seattle has averaged 25.3 PPG.

 

[bmd1803]

DAVE COKIN

Event: (759) North Dakota at (760) Denver
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: January 5, 2019 3PM EST
Play: North Dakota 5.0 (-108)

Bottom of the Summit barrel here with a pair of bad teams. I can at least see some improvement due for North Dakota as Marlon Stewart is back running the point after missing the first seven games for the Hawks. Denver is terrible. The program has gotten progressively worse under Rodney Billups. This is pretty much just a numbers play for me as I made the Pioneers only -1 and really don't see them being worthy of spotting this many against anyone in the Summit, including the Hawks. Value play on North Dakota