Saturday 1/30/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 1/30 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 3 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 5 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 9 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 75 - 257 / $423.30 BEST BETS: 9 - 19 / $33.90

Best Bet: STITCH IN TIME (1st)

Spot Play: SANTANNA STAR (2nd)


Race 1

(6) STITCH IN TIME chased in a very fast mile last time out and now gets to drop to the basement condition. This looks like his week. (2) P L HOUDINI gets his nose on the gate this week, which is a huge deal for a horse with breaking issues. The speed is there. (7) HILL I AM looked sharp in his second qualifier but I'm going to wait for an easier spot or a better post.

Race 2

(6) SANTANA STAR raced evenly in a quick mile behind others which would clearly be favored in this spot. Four-year-old should be tighter in his second start after a month on the shelf. (8) MISSILE J showed something with a much more professional effort in his second career start. If he had an inside post I'd use him on top. (3) HONEY I'M HOME had some stretch traffic in that qualifier and wasn't exactly asked for top speed.

Race 3

(4) WINDSUN GALLIANO comes off a win and gets the weak call against a field that hardly inspires confidence. (7) LUKAS HALL drops down for a barn that is good on that angle. (10) SHARP EDGE should be good to get a piece of the pie.

Race 4

(7) BOOGIEWOOGIEBRIAN hails from a barn that is capable of bringing in a sneaky horse and this guy does return here at a reduced level; worth a shot in a blank field. (1) ADDWATER draws inside this week and may be handled more aggressively. (6) PEDRO'S DREAM could be interesting if hustled to the front.

Race 5

(5) UF FAST FEELIN was used hard last time and paid the price. Now he drops to the bottom claiming level and appears the clear choice. (4) SHAVING MUG picked up some confidence in Freehold and has had past success here. (7) AMPED UP is another dropping down; using underneath.

Race 6

(2) MONTERA raced okay last time and picks up Campbell while facing a blank field. (5) UF LARRY ALLTHEWAY never got into the race last time. He is better than that. (9) MAGICAL TELF N hasn't won in a while but seems to be racing well enough to get into the exotics.

Race 7

(5) THAT'S MY OPINION responded very nicely to the change in tactics last time and we all know he is fast enough to handle tougher foes. (9) HOPE FOR BADLANDS comes off a race you can completely toss. Tonight he faces a softer group and should improve accordingly. (2) MOONLIGHT RANSOM comes off a win versus lesser and drew well this week. He can make some noise in here.

Race 8

(5) VICE CONSUL N put in a credible effort in his first stateside attempt and can build off that effort against an evenly-matched field. (3) STARSKY'S DREAM N was just okay after a layoff but continues to lure Tetrick off other contenders. I'm guessing we'll see something good from him soon. (1) PANSFORMATIVE is too sharp to ignore.

Race 9

(6) SWEET BEACH drops out of the Open into a class where he proved victorious back in December. (2) REAL NICE is razor sharp and with enough class to keep it going for a while. (9) KINGOFTHEJUNGLE & (5) SHOOTER'S DREAM are the other two exiting Open company; either is capable of winning.

Race 10

(4) GOLD ROCKS gets post and class relief tonight and has a big chance. (2) SO TAKE THAT is another dropping down the class ladder; wakes up? (3) ESCAPE THE NEWS is a veteran that can step up at any time.

Race 11

(7) COBALT MAN gets some needed class relief. This isn't the easiest NW7500 around but he has a big shot. (1) DULL ROAR raced well against better when last at the Meadowlands; worth using. (2) FRATERNITY is so sharp. Others may be a touch faster, but with possible cold temperatures that advantage can be negated. (8) MUDSLIDE is capable given the right trip.

Race 12

(3) BENJAMINBANNEKER N found a different gear and closed well once his earplugs were pulled last time. He takes a meaningful drop in class and can get the job done if the pace is fast enough for his rally. (7) INTHEBLINKOFANEYE is plenty fast and should take them a long way. (4) AROCKIN HANOVER couldn't be any sharper but this field is much better than what he has been facing. (2) CASTLE FLIGHT is down in class and capable of stepping up.

Race 13

(6) CASHENDASH HANOVER comes off an impressive win at Dover and looks ready to handle the Meadowlands for a Davis barn that is 4 for 8 this meet. (4) OUREA NOURRIR has been chasing another sharp Dylan Davis trainee in Dinner At The Met. If the pace is quick he'll pounce late. (1) ALL WEEK is sharp, has early speed and an inside post.

Race 14

(3) VICTORY AHEAD faces a much easier field this time around and should bring a top effort. (1) EIGHT TEN EOM has been racing well; main danger. (7) GIANT SLAYER has some early speed in his arsenal; drops. (8) SUITS gets a new driver.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 1/30 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 25 - 69 / $166.50

BEST BETS: 4 - 6 / $14.60

Best Bet: SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP (12th)

Spot Play: PHIL YOUR BOOTS (8th)


Race 1

(4) RU READY TO ROCK gets post relief after a needed first seasonal start; Godinez trainee was Kakaley's choice and could be on the move early. (2) TAURANGA took advantage of a good setup to upset versus lesser last out; tough to justify the low morning line here but he is in with a good chance. (1) RIVER RUN FOR RYAN had good finishing pace in last and he draws well again.

Race 2

(2) YOU'RE MAJESTIC ships in from The Meadows, joins the O'Sullivan barn and has amassed a nice bankroll in her young career; take a long look from this spot. (6) WATKINS may need some help from this spot but he's been good in his last two. (1) OUTBURST gets some needed class relief.

Race 3

(1) BLATANTLY BEST has faced better with some success in the past and he lands the rail in a race with many suspect contenders. (7) CARTOON DADDY was Bartlett's choice but he needs to overcome the post. (3) MAJOR BUBBLES N makes his U.S. debut off an even qualifier; consider underneath and tab for future efforts.

Race 4

(7) CYCLONE KIWI N was second best to a tough one last out and the Bamond trainee looms the one to beat here despite the outside post. (4) JENERAL PATTON paced a big back half en route to victory last out. (3) OUR WALDEN BURY N can save ground and shake free with pace.

Race 5

(4) ONE THROUGH TEN usually flashes good speed but doesn't always finish; maybe the fresh hands of Brennan can shake him up. (3) PASS THEM BY N is capable of powering past these if in the mood. (1) ONEDIN MACH N was Dube's choice and he returns locally with the best post.

Race 6

(7) RED HOT HERBIE and (8) NOT AFRAID have both been solid in their 2016 starts but the nod goes to 'Herbie' with the post and tactical advantage. (5) MAJOR ATHENS ships in and joins the Milici barn; he faces tougher but is worth a look underneath.

Race 7

(6) SNAP TO IT A gets some needed post relief and needs a trip but is worth considering if the price is right. (2) VILLAGE BEAT also drops and gets needed post relief. (7) TWIN B HOLLISTER finished very strongly last out but he loses Bartlett tonight to the top choice.

Race 8

(5) PHIL YOUR BOOTS never got involved last out from the outside post; with this better starting spot he should revert to aggressive tactics. (6) MELMERBY BEACH was very good in defeat last out and has been a solid performer since the Annunziata purchase. (4) HUGH HEFNER N has looked good since arriving in the U.S.

Race 9

(1) FORTY FIVE RED will be looking to go coast to coast from this spot and he'll probably be favored to do so. (3) SOHO JACKMAN A closed well last out and always gives an honest effort. (5) SUPREME MACH N loses Dube tonight but he's got ability and could be considered for a share.

Race 10

(2) BJ'S GUY makes his second return start off a needed tightener and the veteran can carry his speed a long way from this spot. (4) ROLAND N ROCK couldn't hack it uncovered last out and faded; he can be on the lead or stalking from the pocket tonight. (3) SHADY CITY is always capable of grinding this type down if close enough.

Race 11

(5) CROSBYS CLAM BAKE put in a stellar effort in defeat last out and may just be a smooth trip away from posting a mild upset. (3) MONEY MAVEN is up in class again but is perfect since arriving locally for Julie Miller. (1) CLEMENTINE DREAM gets a free ride at this level off a win and draws best; can't fault anyone for backing her.

Race 12

(1) SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP went down the road impressively versus the same type and the Takter trainee looms a very short price in the finale. (2) DRUNKEN DESIRE A gets both class and post relief tonight. (3) CAROL'S COMET woke up with a better effort last out upon returning to this level.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (3rd) May Be a Diamond, 6-1
(6th) Dighton, 5-1

Delta Downs (3rd) Fab Five Grands, 7-2
(7th) Snowy Girl, 9-2

Fair Grounds (4th) Grateful Life, 4-1
(8th) Pretty Suspect, 8-1

Golden Gate Fields (4th) Runfasterelse, 7-2
(8th) Zarqa Star, 7-2

Gulfstream Park (6th) Sawyer, 5-1
(10th) Ami's Mesa, 8-1

Laurel (3rd) Plunder, 9-2
(7th) I O Ines, 8-1

Mahoning Valley (5th) Run Dan Run, 6-1
(8th) Playing With Fire, 6-1

Oaklawn Park (1st) Viva Outlaw, 3-1
(6th) Kiss, 6-1

Penn National (2nd) Gone Mountain, 4-1
(8th) Bemois, 3-1

Sam Houston (5th) Bling's Ace, 5-1
(10th) C C's Song, 6-1

Santa Anita (7th) Velvet Mesquite, 7-2
(9th) Poshsky, 9-2

Tampa Bay Downs (3rd) Awfully Sinful, 7-2
(10th) All Call, 4-1

Turf Paradise (6th) Elusive Moment, 4-1
(8th) Miss Murder, 3-1

Turfway Park (1st) Necessary Party, 6-1
(8th) Northern Ranger, 8-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's six-pack

How different college hoop conferences rank in statistical categories..........

-- Best 3-point shooting leagues: 1) Atlantic Sun 38.6% 2) Big Sky 3) Summit

-- Foul shooting: 1) Summit 74.3% 2) Big East 3) WCC 4) Atlantic 14

-- Tempo: 1) Southland (72.3) 2) Horizon 3) Atlantic Sun 4) SEC

-- Home W-L: 1) SEC 40-14 2) Southern 3) Big X 4) Pac-12

-- Close games: 1) SWAC 2) Big West 3) Southern 4) Big South

-- Turnover %: 1) NEC (20.6%) 2) MEAC 3) Ivy 4) MVC 5) Southland

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Saturday

525 UAB @ 526 MARSHALL 12:00 PM

Take: 525 UAB +2

If you’re making out a list of surprise teams to date this season, Marshall probably should be included in that rundown. The Thundering Herd limped out of the starting blocks with six straight losses against pretty good competition. But since that rough beginning, Marshall has done well, and they now find themselves in a tie for the top spot in CUSA.

Today’s opponent for the Herd is the other first-place team, and UAB being in contention for the league’s top spot is no surprise. The Blazers were considered the consensus team to beat prior to the season, and they haven’t disappointed.

I guess one can make a case that UAB’s 17-4 record is not quite as gaudy as it appears. It’s not like this team faced much of a challenge in the non-conference portion of the campaign. But the fact remains the Blazers have been taking care of business all season, and I expect that to be the case again today.

As for the numbers, the head to head categorical comparisons favor UAB. In fairness, those edges are helped by the easier non-league slate faced by UAB as opposed to the caliber of competition Marshall challenged. Nevertheless, while Marshall probably has the better overall offense, the defensive advantage for the Blazers seems fairly clear.

I also see the big game atmosphere being a part of the mix today. There’s no doubt Marshall will be excited about this game and they fans should be totally revved up for their most important home game in at least a few years. But the team that’s more used to the spotlight is unquestionably UAB. Several of the Blazers who contributed greatly in their stirring run through the CUSA Tournament plus the opening round NCAA upset of Iowa State are still on hand, and that confidence of knowing how to get it done when it matters could be vital.

I would think this is going to be a terrific game, and I’ll be surprised if there’s anything resembling a lopsided result here. But I do feel as though UAB is the more proven entity and I like the matchup from a statistical standpoint. That’s enough to get me on UAB side today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp NBA Pick, Saturday, Jan. 30, 2016 8:05 PM EST

(509) WASHINGTON WIZARDS VS (510) HOUSTON ROCKETS

Take: (509) WASHINGTON WIZARDS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, January 30, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Washington Wizards and the Rockets from Houston. The Washington Wizards are rested with a strong offense, and the Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Washington has a winning record on the road. Houston is home but a bad defensive team, No. 27 in the NBA in points allowed, No. 26 in field goal shooting defense. The Rockets are 5-14 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference. Houston is in the second of a back to back spot, at Oklahoma City last night. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS playing on no days rest, plus 1-5 ATS at home games vs. a team with a winning road record. And when these teams clash the road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings and the Wizards are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Houston. Play the Washington!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play: SAT: Colo State + 3 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ray Monohan

Kings vs Grizzlies

Saturday 5* NBA ATS *FREE* Play Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

The Grizzlies take on the Kings on Saturday and have value here as Sacramento is reeling.

The Kings have dropped 3 straight after rattling off 5 straight wins as they’ve completely lost it defensively. Sacramento has allowed well above 100 points in each loss and this is not a good spot for them.

Look for the Grizzlies to use Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol to slow down DeMarcus Cousins, which will leave the Kings with absolutely no answer offensively here. Memphis should be able to use their depth and contributions from the bench to take down the Kings Saturday.

MEM are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games, and are 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Sacramento.

Back Memphis ATS.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Kings vs Grizzlies

Bonus Play Memphis Grizzlies

I'm laying the points with the Grizzlies on Saturday. Sacramento appeared to have turned its season around with a five-game winning streak but then came the double overtime loss at home against Charlotte on Monday and the Kings have yet to recover. They lost the following night 112-97 at Portland and then again 114-105 at New Orleans on Thursday. This will be the fourth game in six days for the Kings and third straight road contest. DeMarcus Cousins and Ben McLemore had 26 points apiece against the Pelicans but the Kings couldn't contain Ryan Anderson who scored 36 points. Memphis has won six of its last seven games and blew out Milwaukee 103-83 on Thursday. Jeff Green came off the bench to score 21 points and the Grizzlies held the Bucks to 36.7 percent from the field. Sacramento hasn't won in Memphis in nearly seven years and lost 103-89 to the Grizzlies earlier this season. Also, the Kings have missed Rudy Gay (eye injury). Gay may play tonight, but we'll back Memphis whether he plays or not. I'm recommending a play on the Grizzlies to cover the small number on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones

Providence vs Georgetown

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Georgetown -2

The Georgetown Hoyas (13-8) are finally starting to play up to their potential. They knocked off Xavier on the road and Creighton at home, and played in tight losses to Villanova (by 5) and UConn (by 6) in their last four games. They are now 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.

But the Hoyas need to keep adding signature wins to their resume, and they have another great opportunity to do that today at home against Providence. While I like this Friars team, I believe they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as only 2-point road dogs.

That respect has come from an upset win at Villanova on Sunday in overtime. But the Friars promptly laid an egg in their next game in a 7-point home loss to Xavier. Yet they're still getting treated like the team that beat Villanova from oddsmakers as only 2-point dogs here, when they should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 to 6-point dogs.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 6-2 SU in the last eight meetings. Georgetown is 9-2 SU in its last 11 home meetings with Providence. The Hoyas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet Georgetown Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Lundin

Pistons vs Raptors

5* NBA Free Pick Toronto Raptors

This looks like a very rough spot for the Detroit Pistons. They suffered a 114-106 loss at home against the Cavs last night and are 2-6 ATS in their last eight playing on back-to-back nights. They'll face a white hot Toronto Raptors team coming off 10 consecutive wins and All-Star guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have been terrific during the winning streak averaging 24 and 22.3 points respectively. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and off a 103-93 victory over the Knicks here at Air Canada Centre Thursday. They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven playing on one days rest and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine at home after a win as a home favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Nover

Virginia vs Louisville

Bonus Play Virginia

When two very good teams meet, especially two that rank among the top 11 defensively, taking points isn't a bad way to go. That's especially the case here getting this many points with 11th-ranked Virginia against 16th-rated Louisville. It's the first time the Cavaliers are an underdog in 44 games, The last time the Cavaliers were a 'dog was last season against VCU on the road and they beat the Rams, 74-57.
OK, that was last season when the Cavaliers had the most efficient defense in the country. Virginia's defense isn't as stifling this season. But it's still very strong ranking 11th in the nation surrendering fewer than 62 points a game while also ranking No. 1 in defensive rebounding. The Cavaliers make up for their slight defensive decline with a very efficient offense. Virginia rates in the top 20 in field goal percentage and top 10 in turnover percentage. The Cavaliers commit the fewest turnovers per game in the Atlantic Coast Conference at 9.3. Louisville turns the ball over more than 10 of the 15 teams in the ACC.
Virginia has stepped up when asked going 3-0 versus ranked opponents. The Cavaliers held 15th-ranked Miami to 58 points in an eight-point home victory five games ago. The Hurricanes average more than 79 points on the season.
Current form and contrast in styles are factors, too, why Virginia should cover if not win straight-up. Sparked by a hot Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia has won three in a row shooting 52.7 percent from the floor during this span. Brogdon is averaging 23 points during the win streak. By contrast, Louisville hasn't been sharp defensively beating Virginia Tech, 91-83, and Georgia Tech, 75-71, during its past two games. The Cardinals are shooting only 44.7 percent from the field during their last eight games. Their season shooting percentage is 49.1. Louisville has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games.
Virginia's offense is predicated on patience working to get the best shot. That helps make the Cavaliers very tough in this point spread range as they are built more for covering as a 'dog than as chalk. The teams split last season with Virginia beating the the Cavaliers, 52-47, at home while losing at Louisville, 59-57. The Cardinals were a 2 1/2-point home 'dog in that game. So you can see the line adjustment from a year ago, which I believe is overcompensated way too much. Only once in their four losses have the Cavaliers lost by more than five points. Their average losing margin is by 4.5 points.
The Cardinals run more and rely on offensive rebounding. One of their keys is 6-foot-10 center Chinau Onuaku, who has to deal with Virginia's talented and tall frontline. Onuaku has had problems avoiding foul trouble and also has been sick this week. Note, too, that the Cardinals have a huge home game on deck when they host No. 2 ranked North Carolina on Monday.
Going back the past four seasons, the Cardinals have covered only 25 percent of the time as a single-digit home favorite averaging 64 points during these games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Andre Ramirez

Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan

150 DIMES FREE HIGH ROLLER GAME Western Michigan

Western Michigan is 3-0 at home against Eastern Michigan. Western Michigan has the edge in size, and can bully the inside in rebounds. Eastern Michigan is 5-8 ATS, while Eastern Michigan is 6-4 ATS when going head to head. I like Western Michigan by 8 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Art Aronson

Warriors vs 76ers

1* Bonus Play Philadelphia 76ers

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

For this particular selection, we're keeping it simple:

Letdown/look-ahead spot: The defending champs come into this one at 42-4 overall and having won five straight, including massive victories at Cleveland, at Chicago and then at home over the Pacers, Spurs and Mavericks. With a game in New York tomorrow night, it's obviously not too hard to imagine the Warriors coming into this one a bit complacent in facing the lowly 7-40 Philadelphia 76ers. And it almost also assuredly means that the Golden State starters are going to get some extra time off, so look for the home side to make a serious push in the second half.

Under the radar improvement: With a 4-17 home record, it's a little funny to say that the 76ers are actually looking like they're finally starting to play a little better, but with two wins in their last four games, that is in fact the case for Philadelphia (the 76ers are actually 6-4 ATS in their last ten games for bettors).

The bottom line: There definitely seem to be a lot of great situational factors working in favor of the home side in this particular matchup and when combined with what we feel to be an extremely healthy spread, we'll indeed recommend a second look at PHILADELPHIA tonight.

AAA Sports

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

New Mexico vs Boise State

Play - New Mexico

Edges - Lobos: 8-2 SU and 7-1 ATS versus .646 or greater opposition this season. Broncos: 0-5 ATS as favorites before facing Utah State; and 2-4 ATS after facing UNLV. With the visiting team 11-4 ATS in Boise State games this season, we recommend a 1* play on double revenging New Mexico. Thank you and good luck as always.