Saturday 1/30/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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NBA

Saturday's hot teams
-- Warriors won/covered last five games (14-7-1AF). 76ers split last six games, are 5-3 vs spread in last eight.
-- Toronto won its last ten games (6-1 last 7HF).
-- Nuggets split last four games, covered five of last six (9-4 last 13HF).
-- Pelicans won three of last four games (4-1 last five HF).
-- Memphis won six of its last seven games (7-2-1 last 10HF).
-- Spurs won 14 of last 15 games (8-3 last 11AF). Cleveland won 13 of last 16 games (0-0HU).

Cold teams
-- Detroit is 4-6 in its last ten games (3-1 last 4AU).
-- Indiana lost six of its last eight games (10-7HF).
-- Brooklyn lost 11 of its last 13 games (0-3 last 3AU).
-- Washington won five of its last six games (8-3 last 11AU). Rockets are 3-4 in last seven games (8-4 last 12HF).
-- Sacramento lost its last three games (7-3 last 10AU).

Series records
-- 76ers lost last four games with Golden State (1-3 vs spread).
-- Raptors won five of last seven games with Detroit.
-- Nuggets won eight of last nine games with Indiana.
-- Nets lost their last three games with New Orleans.
-- Rockets won four of last five games with Washington.
-- Grizzlies won nine of last ten games with Sacramento.
-- Spurs won nine of last ten games with Cleveland; they lost here in OT last year.

Totals
-- Nine of last eleven Golden State games went over.
-- Five of last seven Detroit games went over total.
-- Eight of last nine Denver games went over total.
-- Last six New Orleans games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Washington games stayed under.
-- Eight of last nine Memphis games went over total.
-- Last four San Antonio games went over the total.

Back/backs
-- Detroit is 2-6 in last eight games if they played night before.
-- Brooklyn is 4-3 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Houston is 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games if it played night before.
-- Cleveland is 3-4-1 vs spread if it played night before.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Raptors extend streak'

The Toronto Raptors playing efficiently at both ends of the floor netting 105.1 points/game while giving up 92.6 per/contest have won a franchise-best ten straight and have covered the point spread in eight of those games. Saturday, Toronto will complete its seven game home stand hosting the Detroit Pistions and there is no reason the win streak can’t stretch to eleven games.

Home court advantage will play a significant role in Toronto winning this contest. Raptors have enjoyed home cooking of late, winning six consecutive (5-1 ATS) outscoring visitors by 13.8 points/game and thirteen of the past fifteen (8-7 ATS) in front of the friendly crowd by a margin of 8.5 points/game.

The most compelling numbers in the Toronto's favor is on the defensive end. The Raptors as a team have certainly bought into coach Dwane Casey's defensive mantra. Toronto has won twenty-two consecutive games (16-6 ATS) when allowing the opponent 100 or less points.

A telling basketball betting stats considering Piston haven't been a peg to hang your hat on when away from Auburn Hills. In the last twenty-one on enemy hardwood the Pistons are 7-14 SU/ATS dropping just 97.6 points/game and enter the contest without rest a situation that has seen the team post a 3-6 SU/ATS record netting 98.2 points/game. Evidence is the key in making any case, and the numbers above clearly illustrate that Toronto is the right choice. As always best of luck.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College basketball betting TV guide: Must-watch, must-wager games
By STEVE MERRIL

College basketball is in full swing with conference play shaping the field for the NCAA tournament. Steve Merril has scoured the schedule for the must-watch, must-wager games for each day on the college hoops calendar so that you don’t miss any of the action.

Saturday - Oklahoma at LSU

Where to watch: ESPN

This is a strange game for Oklahoma as they are playing an out of conference road game in the middle of their Big 12 season. The Sooners will host Texas Tech on Tuesday night, so they’ll likely come into this game off a win. This game is much more important for LSU as a win would definitely boost their resume for March. The Tigers will be primed for a big effort while this is somewhat of a meaningless non-conference game for the Sooners.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's NCAAB Top 25 betting cheat sheet

It's the bye week before the Super Bowl and with no football on the schedule, college basketball is taking full advantage with plenty of marquee matchups this Saturday. To help you handicap all the best games we break down all the Top 25 teams in action in our betting cheat sheet.

No. 9 West Virginia at Florida (-1.5, OFF)

* The Mountaineers' pressure defense - they lead the nation in turnovers forced (19.8 per game) and steals (10.8) led by four-headed backcourt monster - starters Jevon Carter and Dexter Miles Jr. and talented reserves Jaysean Paige and Tarik Phillip - have combined for 136 steals, that lead to easy baskets on the other end.

* The Gators are coming off a 60-59 loss at Vanderbilt in which they managed only 19 first-half points while shooting a woeful 21.2 percent. Freshman guard KeVaughn Allen made it interesting, pouring in 11 points in the final 32 seconds, but it wasn't enough as the Gators' three-game SEC winning streak ended.

TRENDS:

* West Virginia is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in West Virginia's last six games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Florida's last six home games.

No. 12 Virginia at No. 14 Louisville (-6, OFF)

* The Cavaliers are the conference's best three-point team, shooting a conference-high 39.9 percent beyond the arc - good for 19th in the country - and commit a league-low 9.3 turnovers - tied for the best mark in the country.

* Meanwhile, Louisville went a season-best 12-of-18 beyond the arc in Wednesday's 91-83 victory at Virginia Tech, using its best 3-point shooting effort since Dec. 27, 2010, to overcome a rare poor effort from the nation's fifth-ranked scoring defense. "We had to win this game on offense because we were in such serious foul trouble. We did a great job making the extra pass, passing and shooting," Cardinals coach Rick Pitino told reporters.

TRENDS:

* Virginia is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.
* Louisville is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a straight up win.
* Over is 4-1 in Virginia's last five games following a straight up win.
* Over is 6-1 in Louisville's last seven games following a straight up win.

No. 8 Xavier at DePaul (+10, OFF)

* The Musketeers shot 50.8 percent from the field and put the clamps on No. 10 Providence for a 75-68 victory on Tuesday – their third consecutive triumph away from home. Sophomore guard Trevon Bluiett continues to lead the offense, averaging 15.4 points and draining 39.3 percent from 3-point range.

* Myke Henry, a 6-6 forward who averages 14.3 points and 6.3 rebounds, has scored in double figures 19 of his last 22 contests and is shooting 54.9 percent from the field this season. Billy Garrett Jr. is the only other double-figure scorer (13.5) while Tommy Hamilton IV (9.2 points, 6.3 rebounds) has made 11-of-18 from the field over the past three outings.

TRENDS:

* Xavier is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games versus a team with a losing home record.
* DePaul is 1-4 ATS in its last five Saturday games.
* Under is 4-1 Xavier's last five road games.
* Under is 5-1 in DePaul's last six games overall.

No. 16 Iowa State at No. 5 Texas A&M (-4.5, OFF)

* Iowa State has won four straight contests after a 1-3 start in the Big 12, including a 13-point win over No. 3 Kansas on Monday, and the Aggies come in off their first loss in 11 games. The Cyclones are led by a deep, productive offense that tops the Big 12 in field-goal percentage (50.3) and stands second in scoring (84.4).

* The Aggies still lead the SEC at 7-1, but must recover from a season-high 21 turnovers in the 74-71 loss at Arkansas on Wednesday. They lead the SEC in assists per game (18.6) and are second in assist-turnover ratio (1.48) despite their rough outing with the ball at Arkansas.

TRENDS:

* Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in Texas A&M's last five games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Iowa State's last four games overall.

Minnesota at No. 17 Indiana (-19.5, OFF)

* Indiana entered the week as one of the nation's hottest teams before having its 12-game winning streak snapped by Wisconsin in overtime on Tuesday. Indiana is among the nation's leaders in points per game (85.8), field-goal percentage (51.9) and 3-point shooting (44.4 percent), but Minnesota limited it to 70 points on 41.3 percent shooting - including 32 percent from beyond the arc in their first meeting.

* The Gophers are last in the conference and have dropped 13 of 14, with their last victory coming on Dec. 16 against Chicago State. Minnesota has lost to three ranked Big Ten teams - Indiana, No. 11 Michigan State and No. 21 Purdue - by a total of nine points, but they all occurred at home.

TRENDS:

* Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Indiana is 5-1 ATS in their last six Saturday games.
* Over is 4-0 in Minnesota's last four road games.
* Over is 6-0 in Indiana's last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

No. 13 Miami at North Carolina State (+5, OFF)

* The 13th-ranked Hurricanes are riding a three-game ACC winning streak while the Wolfpack have only one ACC victory and are winless at home in league play. Miami is coming an impressive 80-69 victory over No. 20 Duke in which the Hurricanes shot 50.8 percent from the field thanks to their unselfish play.

* While the Wolfpack has struggled, it certainly hasn't been energetic guard Anthony "Cat" Barber's fault as the junior leads the ACC in scoring (22.8) while dishing out 4.7 assists per game.

TRENDS:

* Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.
* North Carolina State is 1-6 ATS in its last road home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Miami's last eight overall.
* Over is 4-0 in North Carolina State's last four home games.

Boston College at No. 1 North Carolina (-27, OFF)

* Boston College is the only winless team in the conference and play the Tar Heels twice in a span of 11 days, as they host the Tar Heels on Feb. 9. They played their closest ACC game in a 72-62 loss at home against Florida State on Tuesday.

* The Tar Heels have won 11 straight and their first seven in league play - all by an average of 11.1 points - behind the conference's top offense, despite the fact Marcus Paige is mired in an alarming slump that has seen him miss all 16 of his 3-point attempts over the last three games, which comes after he hit at least one 3-pointer in a school-record 41 consecutive contests.

TRENDS:

* Boston College is 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.
* North Carolina is 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 10-2 in Boston College's last 12 games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in North Carolina.

Nebraska at No. 21 Purdue (-11, OFF)

* The Cornhuskers have shown dramatic offensive improvement in the past month and are a confident bunch, having gone on the road and defeated Illinois and No. 11 Michigan State before laying an egg at home against Michigan. Nebraska's one-two scoring punch of Andrew White (16.9 points) and Shavon Shields (15.8) might be able to take advantage of the Boilermakers, who could be looking ahead to their next two opponents: No. 7 Maryland and the Spartans.

* The last time Purdue played, the Boilermakers were without star freshman forward Caleb Swanigan and needed Vince Edwards' 24 points and eight rebounds to avoid what would have been an embarrassing loss to Minnesota. Swanigan, who averages 10.1 points and 8.9 rebounds, remains a question mark with a lower leg injury.

TRENDS:

* Nebraska is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.
* Purdue is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a straight up win.
* Over is 8-1 in Nebraska's last nine games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 4-0 in Purdue's last four games following a straight up win.

No. 2 Oklahoma at Louisiana State (+4.5, OFF)

* Sooners senior Buddy Hield has been the best guard in the country and the Sooners have lost only twice - both agianst top 20 opponenets while posting victories against Memphis, Wisconsin, Villanova, Iowa State, and West Virginia, among others. Their most recent outing featured a 24-point rout of Texas Tech as Hield scored 30 points to raise his scoring average to 25.9.

* Freshman sensation Ben Simmons averages 19.8 points, 12.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists, although he was held without an assist for the first time this season in Tuesday's four-point win over Georgia.

TRENDS:

* Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS in their last six versus SEC.
* LSU is 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Oklahoma's last five games following a ATS win.
* Under is 6-1 in LSU's last seven games following a straight up win.

Georgia at No. 18 Baylor (-11.5, OFF)

* J.J. Frazier has scored 26 points in each of his past two games and teams with Kenny Gaines to form a potent 3-point shooting duo, with Frazier hitting 41.1 percent from long range and Gaines shooting 40.4 percent.

* Baylor leads the nation at 20.3 assists per game, with point guard Lester Medford averaging 7.1 per contest (seventh nationally). The Bears have won eight of their past 10 games and had their 15-game homecourt winning streak snapped in last Saturday’s 82-72 loss to the Sooners.

TRENDS:

* Georgia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Baylor is 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
* Over is 5-1 in Georgia's last six versus Big 12.
* Over is 6-1 in Baylor's last seven games versus a team with a winning % above .600.

Alabama at No. 22 South Carolina (-7, OFF)

* The Crimson Tide spoiled No. 22 South Carolina’s 15-0 start with a 73-50 home rout on Jan. 13, but they’ve lost three of four since. Five of their eight losses have come by 10 points or fewer - including each of the last three.

* South Carolina never was in the first meeting, as Alabama raced out to an early lead and was 13-of-28 from 3-point range while holding the Gamecocks to 35.8 percent shooting overall and 3-of-18 from beyond the arc.

TRENDS:

* Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
* South Carolina is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games.
* Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in Alabama's last six versus a team with a winning straight up record.

No. 19 Kentucky at No. 3 Kansas (-5, OFF)

* In case its 2-3 record over the last five games doesn't provide enough motivation, most of the key contributors from Kansas' upperclass-laden roster this year logged significant minutes when Kentucky routed the Jayhawks 72-40 in the Champions Classic in Indianapolis last season. The 32-point margin of defeat was the largest suffered by Kansas since Feb. 7, 2000, and gave the Wildcats their third straight win in the series.

* The Jayhawks are coming off an 85-72 loss at Iowa State on Monday, but they enter this contest with a 34-game winning streak in Allen Fieldhouse, where Kentucky will attempt to increase its 22-6 advantage in the all-time series. The Wildcats, who are 2-3 in true road games this season, have won three in a row after pounding Missouri 88-54 on Wednesday.

TRENDS:

* Kentucky is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning straight up record.
* Kansas is 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Kentucky's last seven versus Big 12.
* Under is 5-1 in Kansas' last six overall.

No. 10 Providence at Georgetown (-2, OFF)

* The 10th-ranked Friars, who play five of their next seven on the road, fell for the third time in four home games with a 75-68 setback against No. 8 Xavier on Tuesday, sinking into a tie for fourth place in the Big East.

* The Hoyas were headed toward a home loss of their own on the very same night before rallying to top Creighton 74-73. D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera capped a 19-point effort with the key free throws in the closing seconds as Georgetown moved into a tie with Xavier for second place in the league.

TRENDS:

* Providence is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a ATS loss.
* Georgetown is 4-1 ATS in their last five versus Big East.
* Over is 4-1 in Providence's last five road games.
* Over is 7-1 in Georgetown's last eight home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Oregon State at No. 15 Arizona (-13.5, OFF)

* Oregon State has lost four of its last five games and needs a win to avoid falling out of contention in the wide-open Pac-12 race. Freshman guard Stephen Thompson Jr. scored a team-high 14 points against Arizona State, but the Beavers fell into a tie for ninth in the Pac-12 after failing to build on their 15-point win over USC.

* Arizona is deep in unchartered waters after losing four of its last seven contests, including watching its 49-game home winning streak come to an end with Thursday’s loss to Oregon. The Wildcats clearly miss junior forward Elliott Pitts (personal reasons) and freshman guard Allonzo Trier, who averages nearly 15 points per game but remains out due to a broken hand.

TRENDS:

* Oregon State is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games.
* Arizona is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
* Over is 9-1 in Oregon State's last 10 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 5-0 in Arizona's last five home games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Top 25 Trends

Saturday, Jan. 30
Matchup Records Skinny Projection

West Virginia
Overall: 17-3 SU, 11-6 ATS
Big 12: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS
Totals: 7-10 O/U

Florida
Overall: 13-7 SU, 11-6-1 ATS
SEC: 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS
Totals: 9-9 O/U

(9) West Virginia at Florida (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
West Virginia has bounced back from consecutive losses to Oklahoma and Texas by beating Texas Tech and Kansas State in the last two contests. The Mountaineers have done a great job covering numbers of late, posting a 5-1 ATS record since starting 0-2 ATS in Big 12 play. Florida rallied late in Tuesday’s loss at Vanderbilt, managing a cover as 4 ½-point underdogs in a 60-59 setback. The Gators have won four straight games at the O’Connell Center, while going 5-1 ATS the past six games overall.

West Virginia 70
Florida 66


Virginia
Overall: 16-4 SU, 7-11 ATS
ACC: 5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS
Totals: 10-8 O/U

Louisville
Overall: 17-3 SU, 8-8 ATS
ACC: 6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS
Totals: 8-7 O/U

(11) Virginia at (16) Louisville (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Virginia rallied late to stun Wake Forest on Tuesday, 72-71 on a buzzer-beating three-pointer. The Cavaliers failed to cash as 7 ½-point road favorites, the fourth straight ATS loss and sixth non-cover in the past seven games. Louisville has also struggling to cash tickets recently, falling to 2-7 ATS the last nine games in spite of winning at Virginia Tech on Wednesday, 91-83. The Cardinals have dominated in the past two home contests, wiping out Florida State and Pittsburgh by double-digits.

Virginia 63
Louisville 65


Xavier
Overall: 18-2 SU, 13-7 ATS
Big East: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS
Totals: 11-9 O/U

DePaul
Overall: 7-12 SU, 7-11 ATS
Big East: 1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS
Totals: 7-11 O/U

(7) Xavier at DePaul (CBSSN, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Since getting upset by Georgetown at home, Xavier has bounced back with consecutive wins over Seton Hall and Providence. The Musketeers have won three of four road games in Big East action, while going for the season sweep of DePaul after routing the Blue Demons at home earlier this month, 84-64. DePaul has slumped to a 1-7 start in Big East action, while going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS at home against conference foes.

Xavier 79
DePaul 63


Iowa State
Overall: 16-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS
Big 12: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Totals: 7-10 O/U

Texas A&M
Overall: 17-2 SU, 7-5-2 ATS
SEC: 7-0 SU, 3-3-1 ATS
Totals: 6-8 O/U

(14) Iowa State at (5) Texas A&M (ESPN, 2:00 p.m. ET)
These two old Big 12 rivals meet for the first time since 2012, as the Aggies are coming off their first SEC loss following a 7-0 start. Texas A&M was tripped up at Arkansas, 74-71, while cashing the ‘under’ in five straight games. Iowa State has won and covered four games in a row, including home triumphs over Kansas and Oklahoma. The Cyclones have cashed in both road underdog opportunities this season, including an 81-79 victory at Cincinnati as five-point ‘dogs in December.

Iowa State 81
Texas A&M 77


Minnesota
Overall: 6-15 SU, 6-13 ATS
Big 10: 0-9 SU, 4-5 ATS
Totals: 12-7 O/U

Indiana
Overall: 17-4 SU, 11-10 ATS
Big 10: 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS
Totals: 11-10 O/U

Minnesota at (19) Indiana (BTN, 2:15 p.m. ET)
The Golden Gophers are one of two Big 10 squads that has yet to win a conference game (Rutgers the other). Minnesota covered as 14-point home underdogs in a 68-64 setback to Purdue on Wednesday to improve to 3-1 ATS the last four games. Indiana suffered its first conference loss following a 7-0 start in Tuesday’s overtime defeat at Wisconsin, 82-79. The Hoosiers own a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record at home inside the conference, as Indiana goes for the season sweep of Minnesota after winning in Minneapolis earlier this month, 70-63 as 10 ½-point favorites.

Minnesota 60
Indiana 78


Miami, FL
Overall: 16-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS
ACC: 5-2 SU, 3-3-1 ATS
Totals: 11-6-1 O/U

North Carolina State
Overall: 11-10 SU, 8-10 ATS
ACC: 1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS
Totals: 9-9 O/U

(15) Miami, FL at North Carolina State (ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
The Hurricanes face their third straight team from North Carolina after beating Wake Forest and Duke at home. Miami has won only once in three ACC road opportunities with the two losses coming at Clemson and Virginia. The Wolfpack have struggled in conference play at 1-6, coming off Wednesday’s high-scoring defeat to Georgia Tech. N.C. State is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS at home against ACC foes, while the Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in Raleigh.

Miami, FL 67
North Carolina State 63


Boston College
Overall: 7-13 SU, 4-10-1 ATS
ACC: 0-7 SU, 1-5-1 ATS
Totals: 4-11 O/U

North Carolina
Overall: 18-2 SU, 8-11-1 ATS
ACC: 7-0 SU, 2-5 ATS
Totals: 13-7 O/U

Boston College at (2) North Carolina (ESPN2, 4:00 p.m. ET)
It’s the haves and the have-nots hooking up in Chapel Hill. North Carolina hasn’t lost an ACC game yet, while Boston College has yet to crack the win column against conference foes. The Tar Heels own a perfect 7-0 record in ACC play, but haven’t covered in each of their past three wins against N.C. State, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech as double-digit favorites. It’s been an ugly start for BC in conference action, going 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS inside the league with all three road losses coming by 20 points or more. Since 2011, the Eagles have lost seven straight meetings with the Tar Heels, including three losses by 18 points or more.

Boston College 59
North Carolina 85


Nebraska
Overall: 12-9 SU, 10-6 ATS
Big 10: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
Totals: 12-3 O/U

Purdue
Overall: 18-4 SU, 11-7 ATS
Big 10: 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS
Totals: 8-10 O/U

Nebraska at (21) Purdue (BTN, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Nebraska had its four-game winning streak snapped in a home loss to Michigan last Saturday. The Huskers have covered five of their last six contests, while winning its past three road games at Rutgers, Illinois, and Michigan State. Purdue has failed to cash in its last three trips to the court, in spite of victories over Minnesota and Ohio State. In all three home Big 10 wins, the Boilermakers have won by double-digits, while beating the Huskers at home last season, 66-54 as 7 ½-point favorites.

Nebraska 66
Purdue 71


Oklahoma
Overall: 17-2 SU, 9-8 ATS
Big 12: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS
Totals: 11-6 O/U

LSU
Overall: 13-7 SU, 5-12 ATS
SEC: 6-2 SU, 2-6 ATS
Totals: 7-10 O/U

(1) Oklahoma at LSU (ESPN, 5:00 p.m. ET)
In a battle of two Player of the Year candidates, the top-ranked Sooners hope to avoid their third loss this season. Buddy Hield leads Oklahoma off back-to-back wins over Baylor and Texas Tech, but the Sooners are 3-7 ATS the last 10 games. Ben Simmons and LSU have struggled to cover numbers of late, going 0-6 ATS the past six contests, including a non-cover in Tuesday’s 89-85 victory over Georgia as eight-point favorites. The Tigers are listed as a home underdog for the second time this season, as LSU knocked off Kentucky in early January, 85-67.

Oklahoma 81
LSU 74


Georgia
Overall: 11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS
SEC: 4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS
Totals: 10-8 O/U

Baylor
Overall: 16-4 SU, 5-8-1 ATS
Big 12: 6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS
Totals: 8-6 O/U

Georgia at (17) Baylor (ESPN2, 6:00 p.m. ET)
Georgia has been an ATS covering machine lately by posting a 6-1 ATS mark the last seven games. The Bulldogs rallied late to cash as road underdogs at LSU on Tuesday, the third straight cover away from Athens. UGA has eclipsed the ‘over’ in seven of the last nine games, including each of the past three times as a road underdog. Baylor came back to shock Oklahoma State on Wednesday, 69-65 for its third straight road win. The Bears have failed to cash in their last two home games, which includes a loss to Oklahoma.

Georgia 67
Baylor 73


Kentucky
Overall: 16-4 SU, 9-11 ATS
SEC: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS
Totals: 10-10 O/U

Kansas
Overall: 16-4 SU, 10-8 ATS
Big 12: 5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS
Totals: 7-11 O/U

(20) Kentucky at (4) Kansas (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Kansas hasn’t lost back-to-back games this season, while alternating wins and losses the past six contests. The Jayhawks were tripped up at Iowa State on Monday, 85-72, falling to 0-5 ATS the last five games. Kansas is unbeaten at home this season at 11-0, but hasn’t covered in its last three wins at Allen Fieldhouse. Kentucky is rolling of late by winning three straight games by double-digits, but the Wildcats are 2-4 in their last six contests away from Rupp Arena. The Wildcats destroyed the Jayhawks in their previous meeting last season, 72-40 as seven-point favorites in Chicago.

Kentucky 77
Kansas 68


Memphis
Overall: 13-7 SU, 7-10 ATS
AAC: 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS
Totals: 10-7 O/U

SMU
Overall: 18-1 SU, 6-9 ATS
AAC: 7-1 SU, 3-5 ATS
Totals: 9-6 O/U

Memphis at (13) SMU (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Memphis snapped a two-game losing streak with a 97-86 victory at Central Florida on Tuesday to pick up their third straight road cover. All three of Memphis’ losses in AAC play have come by four points or less, including away ATS wins at UConn and Cincinnati. SMU is fresh off its first loss of the season last Sunday at Temple, dropping to 2-5 ATS the last seven contests. All four times SMU won at home in AAC play, the Mustangs didn’t bring in the money, including a pair of wins by four points or less.

Memphis 70
SMU 75


Providence
Overall: 17-4 SU, 12-8 ATS
Big East: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Totals: 11-9 O/U

Georgetown
Overall: 13-8 SU, 11-8 ATS
Big East: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
Totals: 9-10 O/U

(10) Providence at Georgetown (FS1, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Providence couldn’t capitalize off its overtime upset of Villanova, as the Friars lost at home to Xavier on Tuesday, 75-68. The Friars have fared well on the highway in Big East play with a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark, including victories over Creighton and Butler. Georgetown is fresh off a miraculous comeback victory over Creighton, erasing an 11-point deficit in the final 90 seconds of a 74-73 triumph. The Hoyas began Big East play at 6-1, but haven’t cashed in the last two contests.

Providence 67
Georgetown 64


Oregon State
Overall: 12-6 SU, 9-8 ATS
Pac-12: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS
Totals: 11-6 O/U

Arizona
Overall: 16-4 SU, 11-9 ATS
Pac-12: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Totals: 14-6 O/U

Oregon State at (18) Arizona (Pac-12, 9:30 p.m. ET)
Oregon State has lost nine straight Pac-12 road games since last season, including an 0-3 mark this season. The Beavers look to bounce back after getting rolled at Arizona State on Thursday, 86-68 as five-point underdogs, while OSU tries to upset Arizona for the second straight season. The Wildcats own a surprising 4-4 record in Pac-12 play after losing to Oregon on Thursday, its first home loss in their last 50 games at the McKale Center. Arizona has cashed the ‘over’ in nine of the last 10 games, including five straight ‘overs’ in Tucson.

Oregon State 71
Arizona 85

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards


**West Virginia at Florida**

-- Florida (13-7 straight up, 11-6-1 against the spread) and West Virginia will collide in the inaugural SEC/Big 12 Challenge on Saturday in Gainesville. Tip-off at the sold-our O-Dome is scheduled for noon Eastern on ESPN.

-- Mike White’s team is No. 26 in the RPI Rankings thanks to the nation’s fourth-toughest non-conference scheduled and the country’s ninth-toughest overall slate. UF is just 1-5 against the Top 50, but it has a 5-7 mark against the Top 100 and zero deplorable losses. The Gators’ best wins include triumphs over Saint Joseph’s, Georgia, Auburn and LSU. They beat Phil Martelli’s squad on a neutral court and have a road win at Ole Miss. However, UF still needs to capture another win of merit on the road. Those chances will come in pending games at Kentucky, at Georgia, at South Carolina and at LSU.

-- Florida has won nine of its 10 home games in Gainesville, going 5-2 ATS.

-- UF saw its three-game winning streak snapped in Tuesday’s 60-59 loss at Vanderbilt, but it hooked up its betting backers as a 4.5-point underdog. The Gators covered the number for the fifth time in six games. KeVaughn Allen and Kasey Hill scored 16 points apiece in the losing effort. Dorian Finney-Smith finished with 12 points and 14 rebounds. Allen, the true freshman guard out of Little Rock, scored 14 of his 16 points in the last two minutes of the game. UF was an abysmal 7-of-33 from the field in the first half, including 0-for-10 from long distance.

-- UF forward Justin Leon sustained a concussion three minutes into the first half at Vanderbilt. Leon, who had been averaging 10.5 points per game in the six previous contests, had recently become a starter. His status for WVU as of Friday afternoon was ‘questionable.’ Leon had 14 points and nine boards to spark his team to a 68-62 home win over LSU a few weeks ago. Leon, who initially signed with White at La. Tech, has been a pleasant surprise. He leads UF in 3-point shooting percentage, draining 45.5 percent of his launches from beyond the arc. He’s made 56.5 percent of his attempts from downtown in SEC play. Leon’s absence was key against Vandy, as the Commodores won most of the 50/50 battles for loose balls. Leon not only produces numbers, but he’s a blue-collar player that makes hustle plays galore. Facing a scrappy team coached by Bob Huggins, Leon’s presence (or absence) will be crucial, worth at least a point or two in the line in my opinion.

-- West Virginia (17-3 SU, 11-6 ATS) is No. 18 in the RPI Rankings, producing a 4-3 record against the Top and a 6-3 mark versus the Top 100. The Mountaineers have just three defeats – vs. Texas, at Oklahoma and vs. Virginia on a neutral court. They owns quality scalps over Kansas State (twice), Texas Tech, San Diego State and Kansas.

-- These teams have a pair of common foes. Both have beaten Richmond and Oklahoma State

-- Since losing back-to-back games to OU and UT, WVU has won consecutive contests at Texas Tech (80-76) and vs. Kansas State (70-55). Jonathan Holton led the way against the Wildcats with 14 points and 11 rebounds. Jaysean Paige contributed 12 points, five boards and four steals for the winners.

-- Following his weekly radio show Thursday night, Huggins announced that Holton has been suspended indefinitely (at least three games) and will miss Saturday’s game. Holton averages 9.7 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game. He shoots at a team-best 54.0 percent clip from the field.

-- Paige leads the Mountaineers in scoring with a 13.6 points-per-game average. Junior forward Devin Williams is averaging 13.1 points and 8.2 RPG, while sophomore guard Jevon Carter is averaging 11.0 PPG and has a 64/29 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Carter also has a team-best 37 steals.

-- WVU has won four of its five road games, going 3-2 ATS.

-- These schools haven’t met since playing a home-and-home series in 2002 and 2003. In 2002, WVU upset the Gators 68-66 as a 17-point road underdog. Then in Morgantown the next year, UF exacted revenge in a 70-57 triumph as an 11.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Matt Walsh and David Lee scored 17 and 15 points, respectively, as UF overcame a six-point halftime deficit.

-- The ‘over’ is 7-3 in UF’s last 10 games. Totals have been an overall wash (9-9) for the Gators, but they have seen the ‘over’ hit at a 5-3 clip in their eight lined home games.

-- The ‘under’ is 10-7 overall for WVU, but the ‘over’ has cashed at a 4-1 clip in the Mountaineers’ five true road assignments.

**Virginia at Louisville**

-- If Virginia wants to stay in the mix for the ACC regular-season title, it is crucial that the Cavaliers go into the KFC Yum! Center and beat Louisville on Saturday afternoon. The Cavs are 5-3 in ACC play, while U of L is 6-1. The Cardinals trail North Carolina and its 7-0 league ledger by one game going into this weekend.

-- Louisville (17-3 SU, 8-8 ATS) is undefeated in 13 home games with a 6-3 spread record.

-- Rick Pitino’s squad has won four in a row since suffering its lone ACC setback at Clemson, 66-62. However, the Cardinals have failed to cover the spread in back-to-back games. They are off a 91-83 win Wednesday night at Va. Tech as 10-point road favorites. Damion Lee was sensational in Blacksburg, needing only eight shots to score a game-high 29 points. Lee, the transfer from Drexel, drilled 6-of-7 shots from 3-point land and converted 11-of-12 attempts at the charity stripe. He also dished out six assists and pulled down five rebounds. Trey Lewis, another transfer from Cleveland State, poured in 22 points on 4-of-7 shooting from downtown.

-- Lee paces U of L in scoring (17.2 PPG), steals (1.6 SPG) and free-throw percentage (87.0%). Lewis is averaging 12.7 PPG. Sophomore center Chinanu Onuaku is averaging 10.6 points and 9.0 rebounds per game. Onuaku has a team-best 40 blocked shots.

-- Louisville is No. 16 in the RPI Rankings, compiling a 2-2 record against the Top 50 and a 6-3 mark against the Top 100. The Cards’ best wins came at home vs. Pitt and FSU. They have lost at Michigan State, at Kentucky and at Clemson by 10 combined points.

-- Virginia (16-4 SU, 7-11 ATS) is No. 11 in the RPI, going 7-2 versus the Top 50 and 9-3 against the Top 100. The Cavs have great wins over Villanova, Miami and West Va., in addition to quality scalps over the likes of Syracuse, California, Notre Dame, Clemson and William & Mary. They also have a road win at Ohio State

-- UVA hasn’t lost at home but has dropped four of its six road games. Even worse, the Cavs are 0-6 ATS on the road this year.

-- Tony Bennett’s team has won three in a row but is mired in a money-burning 2-8 ATS slide. UVA was fortunate to pull out a remarkable comeback win at Wake Forest on Tuesday night in Winston Salem. The Cavs trailed by as many as 13 in the second half and they were down 10 with 1:20 remaining. Trailing by four, Malcolm Brogdon hit a deep trey with 4.5 seconds remaining. After fouling, Wake Forest made one of two free throws. Then UVA advanced the ball and after taking a pass in the corner with just one tick left, Darius Thompson launched a game-winning 3-ball that kissed home off the glass at the buzzer. Thompson, a sophomore transfer from Tennessee, had not taken a shot the entire game until burying the game winner.

-- Brogdon scored a game-high 28 points at Wake ForeState Anthony Gill added 17 points before fouling out.

-- Brogdon averages a team-best 17.6 PPG. The senior guard from Norcross, just outside of Atlanta, has a 58/30 assists-to-turnovers ratio and collects 4.5 RPG. Gill scores at a 15.0 PPG clip and grabs 6.0 RPG. The senior forward is making 60.1 percent of his attempts from the floor. Junior guard London Perrantes (11.7 PPG) has a 79/35 assists-to-turnovers ratio and a team-high 20 steals. Perrantes is hitting 52.7 percent of his shots from 3-point range.

-- UVA leads the nation in keeping opponents off the boards, allowing foes just 25.2 RPG. The Cavs are 11th in the country in scoring defense, giving up only 61.9 PPG. They are 10th in the nation in field-goal percentage, connecting on 49.6 percent of their shot attempts. They are 19th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage and free-throw percentage, making 39.7 percent and 75.0 percent, respectively.

-- The ‘over’ is 10-8 overall for UVA, 3-3 in its road outings.

-- The ‘over’ is 8-7-1 overall for U of L, but the ‘under’ has posted a 5-3-1 record in its home outings. The Cards have seen the ‘over’ hit in three consecutive contests.

-- CBS will have the broadcast at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Iowa State at Texas A&M**

-- Texas A&M (17-3 SU, 7-6-2 ATS) is unbeaten in 12 home games with a 4-2 spread record. The Aggies are No. 14 in the RPI, posting a 4-1 record against the Top 50 and a 9-3 ledger versus the Top 100. They own quality wins over the likes of Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Florida and Gonzaga.

-- Billy Kennedy’s team saw its 10-game winning streak snapped Wednesday at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, where Arkansas captured a 74-71 win as a 3.5-point home underdog. In the losing effort, Danuel House knocked down 4-of-5 shots from 3-point range en route to scoring a game-high 24 points. House also had six rebounds and three steals. Tyler Davis finished with 14 points and eight boards.

-- Texas A&M is unbeaten this year in three games against Big 12 opponents.

-- Jalen Jones is the catalyst for A&M, averaging team-highs in scoring (17.0 PPG) and rebounding (7.0 RPG). House is scoring at a 15.7 PPG clip, while Davis averages 11.3 PPG and 5.9 RPG. Davis has a team-best 21 blocked shots.

-- Iowa State (16-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) has won three of its five road games while posting a 4-1 spread record.

-- Steve Prohm’s squad has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including Monday’s 85-72 win over Kansas as a 1.5-point home favorite. The Cyclones trailed by seven at intermission and didn’t take their first lead until the final nine minutes of the second half. They scored 11 straight at one point to take the lead for good.

-- Monte Morris was the catalyst against KU, scoring 21 points and dishing out nine assists without committing a turnover. Georges Niang scored 19 points, grabbed six rebounds and handed out three assists. Abel Nader drained all three of his shots from long distance, finishing with 17 points, four steals, three boards and three assists compared to just one turnover. Matt Thomas added 13 points, four steals and six rebounds.

-- Morris leads the Big 12 in assists (7.0 APG), steals (2.0 SPG) and assists-to-turnovers ratio (139/29!). The Flint, MI., product was tabbed as last week’s Big 12 Player of the Week. Morris averages 15.4 PPG and is shooting at an incredible percentage (53.9%) from the field for a guard.

-- Niang, the versatile 6’8” forward who can play inside and out, is averaging a team-best 19.2 PPG. The senior averages 6.4 RPG and has 64 assists, 17 steals and 13 blocked shots through 20 games.

-- Iowa State has six players scoring in double figures, including Nader and his 12.9 PPG average. Senior center Jameel McKay is averaging 12.8 points and 9.0 rebounds per conteState McKay has a team-high 32 rejections.

-- Iowa State is No. 10 in the RPI, producing a 4-3 record vs. the Top 25, a 6-3 mark against the Top 50 and an 8-3 ledger in the Top 100. The Cyclones have one bad loss to No. Iowa on a neutral court. Yes, the Panthers also beat North Carolina, but they have struggled mightily since those two upset victories and are just No. 150 in the RPI.

-- Iowa State’s best wins have come at home vs. Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa and Texas Tech. The Cyclones have neutral-court scalps of Colorado, Va. Tech and Illinois. They have quality road wins at Cincinnati and at Kansas State

-- The ‘under’ is 10-7 overall for the Cyclones, but the ‘over’ is 3-2 in their five road contests. They have seen the ‘under’ cash in four straight outings.

-- The ‘under’ is 9-6 overall for the Aggies, 4-3 in their home games. They have seen the ‘under’ cash in five consecutive games.

-- Tip-off is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting Jan. 30 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

Interesting decision by ESPN, the Big 12 and the SEC to stage their annual Big 12/SEC Challenge entirely this Saturday -- every game televised on some member of the ESPN family -- instead of in December with all the other nonconference events. I actually like the idea of breaking up the monotony of conference play with a one-day Challenge, and it certainly will get more publicity now, with no football at all on Saturday, then it does in December with the NFL and NCAA football still going. If the ratings are really good, we might see other such events also moved after football season.

No. 14 Iowa State at No. 5 Texas A&M (-3.5)

This Challenge game tips at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN. I won't often say I told you so because I certainly get my share of these predictions wrong, but I called Arkansas' home upset of Texas A&M on Wednesday even though the Razorbacks were on a three-game losing streak. The Aggies are a fine team, I'm sure, but they aren't as good as their now 17-3 record. The SEC simply stinks again. A&M was a 3-point favorite in Fayetteville but lost 74-71 to see its 10-game winning streak end. DJ Hogg missed a 3-point attempt at the buzzer. So now all three losses have been to unranked clubs. The Aggies turned it over a season-high 21 times and shot just 39.6 percent against that Arkansas pressure defense. The only Aggie to make better than half his shots was Danuel House, who had 24 points. A&M had beaten that same team by 23 in College Station earlier in the season.

I'm a huge Iowa State guy this season and the Cyclones have been kryptonite against Top-25 teams in 2015-16. The Cyclones (16-4) already have beaten No. 22 Cincinnati, No. 1 Oklahoma and Iowa when unranked but with the Hawkeyes now in the Top 5. On Monday, ISU beat No. 4 Kansas 85-72 in Ames for its fourth straight victory. The Cyclones trailed by seven at the half. Monte Morris finished with 21 points and Georges Niang 19, with 15 after intermission. The 13-point win was the largest by the Cyclones in the series since 1985. ISU is 14-0 this season when holding opponents under 80 points.

Key trends: ISU is 7-1-1 against the spread in its past nine road games. The Cyclones have covered 10 of their past 13 on Saturday. They are 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight nonconference games. A&M is 8-3-2 ATS in its past 13 after an ATS loss. It is 2-5-1 ATS in its past eight vs. the Big 12.

I'm leaning: First meeting between schools since A&M left the Big 12. Tough call here. I have no doubt ISU is better, but the Aggies are unbeaten at home. Might the Cyclones be a bit flat off the Kansas win? Plus they have another huge conference game Tuesday vs. No. 9 West Virginia. I'll still take Iowa State.

Boston College at No. 2 North Carolina (-26.5)

This ACC matchup is at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2. Why am I previewing what might be the biggest mismatch of all the games on Saturday? This looks to be a potentially huge look-ahead game for the Tar Heels as they visit surging No. 16 Louisville on Monday night. Might the Heels (18-2, 7-0) also be a tad rusty? They haven't played since Sunday's 75-70 escape at Virginia Tech, the Heels' 11th straight win. Brice Johnson, who has to be the ACC Player of the Year, had 19 points and 17 rebounds. It was Roy Williams' 350th win at the school, becoming the first coach to win 350 at two Division I schools. Johnson was named the ACC Player of the Week on Monday for the third time this season, and the Heels did rise to No. 1 in the USA Today poll.

Boston College (7-13, 0-7) is pretty terrible as you can see. The Eagles lost their seventh straight Tuesday at home vs. Florida State, 72-62. The Noles scored 13 unanswered points -- five to close the first half and eight to open the second -- to take command with a 45-32 lead. Eli Carter had 16 points and eight assists for BC and he could start for any ACC team but that's about all the Eagles have. Boston College has lost seven straight in the series, last by 18 in the 2015 ACC Tournament. It was only by 11 in Chapel Hill last season. The last time BC faced a No. 1 team it upset unbeaten Syracuse in February 2014.

Key trends: Heels are 2-6 ATS in their past eight conference games. They are 6-15 ATS in their past 21 vs. teams with a winning percentage below .400. The Eagles have covered four of their past five in Chapel Hill.

I'm leaning: BC obviously won't win, but I'll take all those points.

No. 20 Kentucky at No. 4 Kansas (-5)

The marquee Challenge matchup is at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN between the two winningest programs in NCAA history. Back when the season started this looked like a potential No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup -- both were No. 1 at one point -- but the blue-blood programs have mildly disappointed with matching 16-4 records. I still expect deep runs this March from the Wildcats and Jayhawks because they are so talented; there will be several future NBA players on the Allen Fieldhouse court. Coaches John Calipari and Bill Self are hoping their five-star freshmen will jell with the veterans over the next month-plus before postseason play begins.

Kentucky appears to be playing better right now as it has won three straight in blowout fashion since being stunned at Auburn. All four of UK's losses have come away from Rupp Arena, where the Cats never lose. Kansas has lost three of its past five overall and was dominated in the second half in Monday night's loss at Iowa State. The Jayhawks too often settle for jump shots. KU has won 34 straight games at home but is 6-22 all-time vs. Kentucky. They last played Nov. 18, 2014, in the Champions Classic in Indianapolis with No. 1 Kentucky stomping No. 5 Kansas 72-40. UCLA and Vandy are common opponents this season. Kansas beat both in Maui. Kentucky lost by 10 at the Bruins but waxed the Commodores in Lexington.

Key trends: Kentucky is 4-10-1 ATS in its past 15 road games. It is 2-7 ATS in its past nine nonconference games. KU is 4-0 ATS in its past four out of conference. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings.

I'm leaning: I'd go the home team in this rivalry in any pretty much any situation. So Kansas it is.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Saturday's games..........

West Virginia forces turnovers 27.2% of time, #1 in country; their three losses are Virginia-Oklahoma-Texas, with loss to Sooners only true road game of the three. Mountaineers are 4-1 in true road games; shortest trip they have in Big X is 700 miles. Florida is 9-1 at home, losing to Florida State; they're 4-0 at home in SEC since then. Gators are #60 in US as far as protecting ball-- they have #9 eFG% defense in country.

UAB-Marshall are tied atop C-USA; Blazers beat Marshall 68-62/72-54 in first two C-USA meetings. UAB lost first league game Thursday at WKU- they're 5-2 in true road games, also losing at Auburn. Marshall is 7-1 in league, with only loss at Charlotte; they're 4-0 at home in C-USA, with all four wins by 16+ points. C-USA home faves are 4-2 against the spread in games with spread of less than 5 points.

Home side won both Virginia-Louisville games LY, their first year in the ACC together- games were decided by total of 7 points. Virginia is 1-3 on ACC road, losing by 2-4-7 points with win at Wake Forest- they are 2-4 overall in true road games. Louisville won its last four games; they're 3-0 at home in ACC, winning by 8-18-19 points. Cardinals are 5-3 vs top 100 teams. ACC home favorites of less than 8 points are 7-6.

Home side won last five Washington-USC games; Huskies lost last two visits here, 71-60/70-55- they beat USC 87-85 at home Jan 3, after being down 66-44 with 13:36 left. Trojans turned ball over 21 times (-10) that game. Washington is 6-2 in Pac-12, with five wins by 4 or less points. USC is 3-0 at home in Pac-12, with win over Arizona; they allowed 85+ points in all three Pac-12 losses. Pac-12 home faves of 3+ are 13-5.

LSU is 6-2 in SEC after going 7-5 out of conference; Tigers are #328 in experience- they're 11-1 at home, losing to Wake Forest, 1-2 vs top 50 teams, beating Kentucky. Oklahoma is 17-2, losing at Kansas/Iowa St. by total of 8 points; Sooners are 4-2 in true road games- they're making 46.7% of 3's, best in country. Big X teams are 5-4 vs SEC so far this year, 2-2-1 against the spread as an underdog.

Purdue is 5-2 in Big 14 games with Nebraska, winning all three played at home by 18-6-12 points. Boilers won four of its last five games; they're 3-1 at home in Big 14, winning by 17-17-11 points, losing only to Iowa. Nebraska won four of last five games, winning last thee on road, with a win at Michigan State; three of Huskers' four conference losses were at home. Big 14 double digit home favorites are 9-7 vs spread.

St Joe's won six of last seven games with Rhode Island; they beat URI 72-67 at home Jan 10. Hawks are 4-2 in last six visits here, but lost by 10 at URI LY. Rams are 4-0 at home in A-14 (0-3 on road), winning all four games by 11+ points- they're 2-7 vs top 100 teams, with best win over #87 Richmond. A-14 home favorites of 5 or less points are 6-4 vs spread. St Joe's won its last six games and 13 of last 14.

Kentucky is 2-3 in true road games, winning at Alabama/Arkansas, with losses losses by 10-18-5 points at UCLA-LSU-Auburn- they're #7 in country, rebounding 39.8% of own misses. Kansas is 2-3 in its last five games, with all three losses on road- Self is 200-9 at home, winning all 10 this year- they're 2-3 vs top 25 teams. Jayhawks are shooting 42.3% on arc (#6)- they allowed 85-86 points in last two losses.

San Diego State won its last six games with UNLV, winning last three in Vegas by 9-7-2 points; Aztecs are 8-0 in MW after 7-6 pre-conference mark. Three of their four MW road wins are by exactly 3 points. UNLV is 4-1 since changing coaches, losing by hoop in Reno last week; they've lost at home to Arizona St/Fresno this year. Rebels are 13-1 when they score 73+ points, 0-7 if they score less. Mountain West home favorites of 5 or less points are 1-5 vs spread.

SMU won three of last four games with Memphis, winning by 15-13 in last two played here; Mustangs were off for six days since first loss at Temple Sunday. SMU is 4-0 at home in AAC, beating Cincinnati and Houston by 2-4 points. Memphis is 4-4 in its last eight games;, losing three of last four on road, with only win at UCF. AAC home favorites of less than 8 points are 2-8 against the spread.

Providence is 3-3 in last six games after a 14-1 start; they're 3-0 on road in Big East, with wins at Creighton, Butler, Villanova. Friars won three of last four games with Georgetown; after losing eight in row to Hoyas before that. LY's 74-71 win here was Friars' first in last seven visits to Georgetown. Hoyas split last four games; they're 3-1 at home in league games. Big East home favorites of less than 5 points are 5-3 vs spread.

Pepperdine (+3) held BYU to 36% from floor LW in 71-65 home win vs BYU, its third straight series win- they upset Cougars LY as underdogs of 15-21 points. Waves won four games in row, with wins at USF-USD; they're 12-3 in last 15 games after a 2-4 start. BYU won its three WCC home games, by 26-10-25 points; they're 9-0 at home this season. WCC home favorites of 6+ points are 6-9 against spread.

Belmont won five of six OVC games with Tennessee Tech, winning two of three here (wins by 31-6 points). Bruins won last nine games after its 7-6 start; they're 4-0 on OVC road, with wins by 10-8-10-9. Tech is 4-0 at home in OVC, scoring 88 ppg; they're 7-2 overall in OVC. OVC home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread. Tech doesn't force lot of turnovers, so not defend the 3 very well, could be problem vs Belmont (#5 eFG% in US).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Basketball Betting:

Kentucky Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks January 30, 7:00 EST

We are used to seeing a slate of conference games at this time of the year, but the schedule maker sometimes throws us a bit of a January curveball, and that is what we get this Saturday, January 30. One of the most intriguing games on the schedule sees the Kentucky Wildcats facing the Kansas Jayhawks in a battle of ranked opponents that usually has a feel of March Madness match up.

How to bet Kentucky Wildcats Vs Kansas Jayhawks

This has all the makings of the best match-up of the weekend, as it’s a battle of the giants. Both of these programs have a rich basketball history, and you can bet that pride will be on the line in this one. These are a pair of teams that are pretty tough to separate, so it’s really going to be interesting to see how the odds shape up for this one.

Why bet on the Kentucky Wildcats

The Kentucky Wildcats (16-4, 6-2) have their eyes set on the top spot in the SEC, where they trail the Texas A&M Aggies by a single game. While they will be well aware that this game will be one of their toughest of the season so far, they are coming in on a 3-game win streak where they have looked very impressive indeed. The Wildcats have played 2 previous games against ranked opponents this season, and they managed to come away with a win on both. Kentucky have had their issues on the road this season, but 2 road wins in their last 3 suggests that they might be able to handle what is reading to be a boisterous Allen Fieldhouse. The Wildcats are averaging 77.9 PPG, and have seen that number start to creep up in recent games. Defensively, they are giving up 66.4 PPG.

Why bet on the Kansas Jayhawks

It has been a tough stretch of games for the Kansas Jayhawks (16-4, 5-3) who have lost 3 of their last 5 games. A pair of those wins came against ranked opponents, which has to be a disappointment for a Kansas team that had been disposing of ranked teams with stunning regularity earlier in the season. It sometimes takes a big win to break out of this type of slump, and a victory over Kentucky would certainly fit into that category. The problem that the Jayhawks have been facing of late is some lackluster play on the defensive side of the court, as the 85 and 86 points that they gave up in losses to Iowa State and Oklahoma State, respectively, are well above their 69.3 PPG season average. If they can defend better in their own end, there is no reason they can’t win this one. Offensively, the Jayhawks are averaging 83.7 PPG.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I personally cannot wait for this game, as I think it has the potential to be the most exciting match-up of the weekend. I expect a close one, and think we might even be looking at a buzzer beater for the win. I’m giving the slight edge to Kentucky here.

Kentucky Wildcats 75 Kansas Jayhawks 74

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Basketball Betting:

Virginia at Louisville January 30, 1:00 EST

Saturday is always a great day to place a few wagers and watch some sports on TV, but it gets even better when you have a great match-up to play on. There is indeed a great ACC game to pay attention to on Saturday when Louisville hosts Virginia.

How to Bet Virginia Cavaliers Vs Louisville Cardinals

One of the toughest challenges for any NCAA basketball bettor is trying to figure out who will come out on top when a couple of teams ranked in the top 20 go head to head. It’s even harder to predict when they are also conference foes, but that is all just part of the fun. It’s going to be interesting to see how the bookies have this one.

Why Bet on the Virginia Cavaliers

After a bit of a sticky start to conference play, it looks as though the Virginia Cavaliers (16-4, 5-3) are finally comfortable in the ACC. The rough start they made has seen them drop to #11 in the rankings, but a 3-game win streak and a victory over ranked Louisville would certainly help their chances of getting back into the top 10. The strange thing about the record that Virginia have compiled this season is that all of their losses have come against unranked opponents. They are a perfect 3-0 against ranked teams, although all 3 of those wins came on home court. The Cavaliers broke out of their 3-game losing skid on the road with a win over Wake Forest earlier this week, and they have a good shot of making it 2 in a row on Saturday. The Cavaliers are averaging 72.9 PPG, and are giving up just 61.9 PPG this season.

Why Bet on the Louisville Cardinals

The Cardinals (17-3, 6-1) are on a bit of a roll at the moment, and have now won 4 straight games heading into this one. That streak began with a 59-41 win over a ranked Pittsburgh team, and it seems to have infused this group with some much-needed confidence. The Cardinals have won 13-straight home games this season, and have won 13 of their last 15 overall. Louisville is ranked #16 right now, but you have to think that a victory over another ranked opponent would have them continue their upward trajectory. That is sometimes the only motivation that a team needs when heading into a big game. The Cardinals are averaging 80.9 PPG, and are giving up just 60.0 PPG.

Expert Betting Pick and Final Score Prediction

As good as both of these team are defensively, the chances of us seeing a shootout here are pretty much slim to none. For me, the edge has to go to the Cardinals, simply because they have been so dominant on home court all season long.

Virginia Cavaliers 64 Louisville Cardinals 70

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We have a pair of Road to the Kentucky Derby points races on tap this afternoon, the $350,000 Holy Bull (G2) at Gulfstream Park and the $250,000 Withers (G3) at Aqueduct and we will see the early Derby favorite in action.

Mohaymen is the 6-5 morning line favorite in the Holy Bull and is the early betting favorite for the Run for the Roses.

The two Derby preps are not the best wagering races, but we have plenty of other outstanding betting action, with a 12-race card on tap at Gulfstream Park and a 10-race card and good weather on tap at Aqueduct after last weekend was wiped out by a blizzard.

The co-feature at the Big A is the $150,000 Toboggan (G3) at six furlongs on the main track and it drew a solid field 10 sprinters including Green Gratto, who comes into the race razor sharp.

Trained by little known Gaston Grant, the six-year-old won the Fall Highweight Handicap (G3) on Nov. 26 at 24-1 and showed that win was not a fluke by winning the Gravesand last out on Dec. 26 with a Beyer Speed Figure of 107.

Among his foes is Dads Caps, who won the Carter Handicap (G1) in each of the past two years. The Rudy Rodriguez trainee makes his first start since a third in the True North (G2) last June.

Rodriguez has been on fire at the inner meeting, winning at a 30% clip.

The supporting stakes at Gulfstream Park are the $200,000 Forward Gal (G2), $150,000 Swale (G3), $100,000 Sweetest Chant (G3) and $100,000 Kitten’s Joy.


Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 OClm $35,000N1X (12:05 ET)
#1 Lillie's Answer 8-1
#3 Al Khazaaliya 3-1
#4 Viva Bertha 4-1
#5 Spring Spirit 6-1

Analysis: Lillie's Answer made a good late rally to finish third last out at Tampa Bay Downs in her first go against winners. She broke her maiden in her debut two back at Suffolk over good ground. She was only beaten a neck for the place spot last out and the Clement trainee still looks as if she has some upside. She has a solid pedigree, by Kitten's Joy out of an Empire Maker mare.

Al Khazaaliya came off nearly a year on the bench with a solid effort in a head loss here at this level. The filly was off last and made a strong late rally to just miss. Pletcher hits at a 22% clip with runners making their second start off a +180-day layoff. She is a half to a couple of stakes winners, top earner Onlyforyou ($308,100).

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,4,5
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,4,5 / 1,3,4,5,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 9 The Toboggan G3 (4:20 ET)
#10 Green Gratto 2-1
#4 Dads Caps 5-2
#6 Heaven's Runway 10-1
#9 Fabulous Kid 6-1

Analysis: Green Gratto is coming off a career top speed fig winning the Gravesand last out on the inner track. The six-year-old went gate to wire over a racing strip that was more favorable to outside stalkers and closers that day. He owns solid pace profile throughout and is a four-time winner on the inner. He can't regress much off his last effort but not expecting him to.

Dads Caps is making his first start since running third in the True North (G2) last June. The winner of that race was Rock Fall, who won the Vanderbilt (G1) and Vosburgh (G1) before getting fatally injured in a workout. The RRod trainee was second in this race in the last two years and he could make it a hat trick here. He has a couple of bullet works on the morning tab and hard to knock anything this barn has been sending out at the meet, hitting at a 30% clip overall.

Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 4,10 / 4,6,9,10
TRI: 4,10 / 4,6,9,10 / 2,4,6,9,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 11 The Holy Bull G2 (5:05 ET)
#2 Mohaymen 6-5
#4 Conquest Big E 7-2
#5 Greenpointcrusader 8-5
#3 Fellowship 20-1

Analysis: Mohaymen is perfect in three starts, all in New York, taking the Nashua (G2) and Remsen (G2) in his last two starts. The runner up in the Remsen was Flexibility, who came back to win the Jerome (G3) in his next outing on Jan. 2 while sixth place finisher Ravenheart came back to win the Maryland Juvenile Futurity against state breds in his next outing on Dec. 26 at Laurel Park. Our top pick was a $2.2 million Keeneland purchase and he still appears to have a ton of upside. He is by Tapit out of the stakes winner Justwhistledixie ($449,427) who has dropped two other winners including stakes winner New Year’s Day ($1.1 million). The distance is an issue and he has put in four works at Palm Meadows. The only real knock is going to be the puny price.

Conquest Big E was eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), beaten 4 ¾ lengths for the top spot. He returned a month later to beat Alw-1 optional claimers in a good looking effort in the slop at Churchill Downs. There is not much early speed in here and the Mark Casse trainee may inherit the early lead. He has been working sharply at Palm Meadows for a barn that is 18% winners with runners coming back off a 61`-180-day layoff. He is a half to stakes winner Aquapazza ($131,571).

Greenpointcrusader was the beaten favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his last start. He was off near the back, raced very wide and checked in seventh. He was an impressive winner of the Champagne (G1) two back at Belmont Park in the slop in his stakes debut. He returns here for the Dominic Schettino barn that is 10% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. The $575,000 Keeneland purchase has a nice pedigree, by Bernardini out of a Cryptoclearance mare that has dropped five other stakes winners led by Justin Phillip ($1.29 million). The 8-5 morning line seems light and this guy might be one to look at second off the bench.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 6-5 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,5
TRI: no play

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #1 Lillie’s Answer 8-1
R2: #E7 Zo Zo Striking 15-1
R3: #5 Ballet Diva 15-1
R7: #3 Town Classic 10-1
R9: #11 Doctor Mounty 8-1
R10: #1 Module 8-1
R10: #7 Spinamiss 8-1
R11: #3 Fellowship 20-1
R12: #6 What Power 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Post: 1:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$6200 - CLAIM HANDICAP $6000 - $8000 W/A MORNING LINE: 6-4-3-5 D.PALONE - #1 OR 4 #1 MEDOLAND JATE - SCRATCHED JUDGES


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 MYSTERY ISLAND 5/2


# 1 MR ERV 8/1


# 4 SINK THE MCBISMARK 7/2


MYSTERY ISLAND looks competitive to best this race. Cannot put a finger on it, but give the nod to this gelding for a wager. Many selectors know speed is is key. This fine animal has credentials with a 86 avg stat. Could dominate this bunch, just look at the TrackMaster speed fig - 88 - from his last effort. MR ERV - A really good class horse should not be be passed over. With an avg class figure of 83 all signs say this is the one to beat. With Merriman in the sulky, watch out for this horse to get the win. SINK THE MCBISMARK - With a nice 79 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this race. Tough to pass on this gelding with experienced Palone in the sulky. Major player for the top prize.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Miami Valley

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 7:25 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 86 - Purse:$11000 - HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $12,500 W/ALLOWANCES NO. 10 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 KIASMA 5/1


# 10 COMMUNICATOR 6/1


# 1 AMERICAN GENERAL 10/1


We've got a feeling KIASMA is going to get the victory. Should be considered for this race if only for the respectable speed figure achieved in the last race. A really strong win percent has been achieved by contenders coming from the 5 hole. COMMUNICATOR - Feel the need for speed, this interesting entrant has been turning in some amazing speed ratings averaging around 88. The 88 average class figure may give this gelding a distinct edge in the pack. AMERICAN GENERAL - The group knows that speed is very important in harness racing. This fine animal will unlock our way to a nice win. Could beat this bunch, just look at the TrackMaster Speed Rating - 87 - from his most recent outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 11 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $350000 Class Rating: 106

LAMBHOLM SOUTH HOLY BULL S. - GRADE 2 THREE YEAR OLDS. FREE NOMINATION BY SUNDAY, JANUARY 17. $3,500 TO ENTER AND $1,500 TO START, WITH ALL STARTERS TO RECEIVE A $1,500 REBATE IN ADDITION TO THE PURSE. $350,000 GUARANTEED. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 62% OF THE REMAINING PURSE SHALL BE PAID TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10%


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 MOHAYMEN 6/5


# 5 GREENPOINTCRUSADER 8/5


# 4 CONQUEST BIG E 7/2


MOHAYMEN is my choice. Has performed solidly recently in route races, posting a nifty 102 avg Equibase Speed Fig. This choice will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. Looks strong versus this group and will most likely be one of the front-runners. GREENPOINTCRUSADER - Is a very strong contender based on figures recorded recently under today's conditions. Schettino has shown excellent profits (+29 ROI ) with horses in dirt route events. CONQUEST BIG E - Has been running soundly in races of this distance, going 2 / 4 under similar conditions. Garnered a quite good speed fig last time out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $31000 Class Rating: 70

FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000, FOR EACH $5,000 TO $40,000 1 LB.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 8 CASINO FEVER 5/2


# 2 HERUNBRIDLEDPOWER 3/1


# 6 BISHOPS OF COMPTON 8/1


I favor CASINO FEVER here. Could provide positive profits based on solid recent speed figures with an average of 66. Bettors ought to feel comfortable with this pick given Pedroza's recent profits at the window. Will most likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the halfway point of the competition. HERUNBRIDLEDPOWER - Has run solidly when racing a dirt sprint race. Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the recipe to a turn around. BISHOPS OF COMPTON - Had one of the strongest speed figures of this group in her last race. Shows evidence of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 59 Equibase speed fig which is one of the top in this field.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Sam Houston - Race #3 - Post: 6:02pm - SO - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 DENALI THUNDER (ML=8/1)
#2 TRIUMPH AND SONG (ML=3/1)
#4 ONE TRUE SUN (ML=5/1)


DENALI THUNDER - This front-runner should benefit from this shorter distance. Lets try to beat the favorites with this gelding. Just missed last out, but ran a respectable race. TRIUMPH AND SONG - That 86 fig this gelding recorded in his last clash tells me he's a key player today. Sophisticated horseplayers will tell you that this horse has strong pace. Earnings per start is something that I believe can be a key selection factor. This mount is ranked at the top in this field. ONE TRUE SUN - This one could be an overlay in this event at odds of 5/1. Finished fourth in last race at Sam Houston but was close at the finish. Sub-par effort in the last race at Sam Houston was due to the off-going (he ran fourth). Have to do better in today's race under better track conditions.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 PURE PEGASUS (ML=4/1), #7 LINCOLN LAW (ML=6/1), #1 JOEDINI (ML=6/1),

PURE PEGASUS - Will be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed fig. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list. LINCOLN LAW - Doubtful for this thoroughbred to make a winning move with no success lately in a sprint event. This thoroughbred just hasn't looked ready recently. Mediocre speed rating last time around the track at Sam Houston at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this mount will improve too much in today's event. JOEDINI - Will be hard for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued equines list.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - ONE TRUE SUN - A tried and true angle. Take a sprinter in the third and fourth start after a freshening. That's the time when they peak.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 DENALI THUNDER is the play if we get odds of 7/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Laurel - Race #4 - Post: 1:55pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 PRO DADDY (ML=7/2)


PRO DADDY - The Jan 11th clash at Laurel was at a class level of (83). Dropping down in the class scale significantly, so he should be in a good spot to win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MR. DO (ML=9/2), #5 HENRY HAYES (ML=5/1), #9 MR. AL (ML=6/1),

MR. DO - Will be tough for this entrant to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list. HENRY HAYES - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint races in order to wager on him. This colt finished off the board on January 9th and wasn't close to winning in the last race either. MR. AL - This mount hasn't been close at the finish of late. Speed figures tell a narrative of deteriorating form.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - PRO DADDY - My historical data says it usually takes a horse at least two races after a layoff to get back into condition. That's just what we have here, so I have lofty expectations for this horse.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #1 PRO DADDY to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #4 - AQUEDUCT - 1:50 PM EASTERN POST


The Withers Stakes

8½ FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK GRADE III THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES $250,000.00 PURSE

#2 FLEXIBILITY
#7 SUNNY RIDGE
#5 VORTICITY
#4 KING KRANZ

The Withers is named for David Dunham Withers, a New Yorker who made his fortune in the South, returning to New York at the outset of the Civil War in 186l. He became a member of the American Jockey Club and was one of the founding fathers of Jerome Park. The event was inaugurated in 1874, and Withers won it with his own horse, King Eric, in 1890. Here in the 136th running of this graded stakes test, #2 FLEXIBILITY is the overall speed leader in this field racing at, or about, 8½ furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of his four career starts to date, winning twice in this recent streak of racing consistency to begin his young career. Jockey Irad Ortiz has been in irons on two previous occasions, scoring with a win and a place finish, and is back today for his 3rd ride, gunning for a 2nd "Circle Trip!"

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawthorne Harness: Saturday 1/30 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Best Bet (3 - 6 / $13.60): BETORLUCKYTHANGOOD (1st)

Spot Play: TWINKLE LIKE ASTAR (4th)


Race 1

(9) BETORLUCKYTHANGOOD homebred gelding raced gamely last start and has room to improve. (1) FAVORITE DUNE gets the best post in a wide open and evenly matched race. (6) SHADY'S DREAM BOY also has room to improve third start back off a layoff; threat.

Race 2

(3) YES WE DID should offer a nice price in a field with few contenders. The pacing mare has always been a threat at this level. (8) KESONS AVAIA ten-year-old mare raced big last week against a better field. The pacer makes her first start in a new barn and might be the horse to beat. (7) INTERNAL CHECK was the driver's choice but has burned cash in two straight; command a price.

Race 3

(10) KRUSTY THE CLOWN well bred gelding has two wins in four starts on the year and should offer a big price for capable connections. (2) B R FLYING DALI pacing stallion is sharp and will look to make it four wins in five starts. (4) MAJOR WAY is a definite candidate to hit the ticket but might be best used underneath.

Race 4

(10) TWINKLE LIKE ASTAR was shuffled back last start as the driver elected to sit in bet down at 2-1 before coming with a big rally late. The price could be right this week to pull an upset with a trouble-free trip. (4) SPLENDID PARTY five-year-old stallion was an easy winner a few days ago and might have more to offer. (6) LET'S NOT DWELL probably needed a start last out. The well bred 4-year-old gets a big morning line and has an excuse last week hooking wheels.

Race 5

In a tough race to gauge, (1) WINNING DREAM owns a win in this class and should be in line for a nice ground saving trip up close. (5) FOX VALLEY GEORGE pacer has a history of being camera shy but fits at this level even off the suspect lines. (8) BIG BRAD is another horse who's had trouble finding the winners circle in the last two years. The pacer looks to offer another short price and rarely gets the job done; use underneath.

Race 6

(4) SOMESTARSOMEWHERE wasn't able to get involved last week against tougher. The pacer is capable of pacing a big mile at anytime. (3) A COOL CARD hasn't been as sharp since the new meet but is more than capable. (6) SILVER DEVIL was the driver's choice of three and should improve third start back off a long layoff.

Race 7

(8) ONTARIO SUCCESS could get a better setup this week offering a little more value; versatile. (3) ICE SCRAPER takes a big step up this week but was tremendous last week; fires early. (7) JONES BEACH pacer wired this same group last week going a big effort. It might not be as easy this week if challenged early; driver's choice.

Race 8

(2) VANCE BAYAMA faces much easier this week and could be sitting on a big effort for a former top trainer. (7) MY BUDDY NINKSTER Indiana bred has also been facing tougher and is very consistent. (3) SUNSET DREAMER former four claimer is in career form and would be going for four straight if not for being DQ'd a few back; fires late.

Race 9

(6) PREEMPTIVE BID dropped and popped last week and might be able to handle the class hike with a good setup. (8) COLE HEAT pacer was very sharp late last year but has been lacking pop late so far. A class drop might be just what the pacer needs to find his form. (2) A STITCH IN TIME gets sent out for a barn that has some nice recent winners; threat.

Race 10

(5) MAJOR BLUE COAT will offer a big price for capable connections. (6) FIRSTCLASSALLTHWAY takes a significant drop down and will be used aggressively. (8) MAJOR MONET does his best racing upfront and could be dangerous with a smooth trip; fires early.

Race 11

(8) AMERICAN PAPARAZZI faces easier and was the driver's choice. (4) GRAVELSINMYTRAVEL had nice late pace last week after being shuffled back to nearly last. (3) KELLY D pacer is due for some racing luck and can hit the ticket at a price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 1/30 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 4,7/2,4,9/4,5,7/2,5,6,8/1,6 = $28.80

EARLY PICK 4: 2,5,6,8/1,6/4,8,9/2,5,9 = $72

LATE PICK 4: 2,5,9/2,6/2,7,8/3 = $18

MEET STATS: 212 - 666 / $1134.20 BEST BETS: 34 - 61 / $115.80

SPOT PLAYS: 16 - 61 / $183.80

Best Bet: AVATARTIST (10th)

Spot Play: BRINGHOME THEBLUE (4th)


Race 1

(4) WITCH DALI returns from a break and goes for the top trainer here. She looks ready to roll based on the wicked late speed displayed in her qualifier. (7) ONE HOT MAJORETTE has been one of the hottest horses on the grounds the past few weeks and can't be dismissed here. (3) TOTAL LEE lost her cover when the eventual winner cleared past the 1/2 last week but she kept coming. She needs a trip but can win this if she gets it.

Race 2

(4) MY KID SISTER raced in this lowest conditioned class for the 2nd time straight last week and made a threatening move into the stretch but couldn't sustain it. She looks like one of few contenders here. (9) SANTO DOMINGO was a closing 2nd last time in this class and will likely offer some value starting from an outer slot here. (2) TWIGGYS TWICK figures here based on recent form, but notice she manages to finish 3rd in exactly 1/3 of her starts.

Race 3

(7) UF BETTORS HANOVER was beaten by one that took advantage of a perfect trip last week. The short field plays into his hand here and he will be coming late. (5) IDOLE DUHARAS took advantage of a great trip to beat the choice but also figures to get a good trip here up near the front. (4) TRACK MASTER D ships back to the big track and fits well here in for a tag.

Race 4

(2) BRINGHOME THEBLUE had lots of company looking for the lead early last time and couldn't get his preferred trip. He should get better position at the start here which makes him very tough. (8) LEGION OF BOOM was a powerful winner vs. lesser but the slowing pace helped. Most of these don't look that much tougher, though. (6) MACH CODE had an excellent comeback try off the shelf last week and better positioning here would make him a threat to win this.

Race 5

(1) MOHAWK WARRIOR continues to roll through these conditioned races and will be tough to beat here. (6) MACHAL JORDAN drops a couple of classes which is when he usually does his best work; beware. (9) COOL ROCK is in top form but will likely be trying to pass them all late. He isn't impossible but needs some luck.

Race 6

(4) GIRL DRAMA drops down to the class where she does her best work and should rolling up late here; top call. (9) BROADWAY PRINCE also drops to the lowest level and should show much more here. (8) UTOPIA raced decently last time chasing a loose leader and is another that rates highly here.

Race 7

(5) ER QUINN showed rapid improvement in two starts for owner/trainer Weller since a private sale in November, taking a new life's mark last week vs. lesser. Catch him while he's hot. (9) TOWER OF POWER lost all hope at the start in the Snowshoe series final. The class drop here makes him a big threat. (2) KING OF DELIGHT showed good speed most of the way last week and is another in with a shot here.

Race 8

(6) NICKLE BAG looked like his old self last week, powering up late in an impressive effort. He will have a strong pace to chase here, too; call to repeat. (2) RISE UP NOW had a rough first-over trip in the same dash and faded late. He is more dangerous closing late and will likely revert to that style here. (7) PRESCOTTS HOPE continues to race well but will likely have some early company looking for the front here.

Race 9

(7) CAJON LIGHTNING missed four weeks prior to last week's late fade. Returning in 7 days here should make all the difference for him. (2) DIGGIN IN was an unlucky loser, beat by one that sat a covered third the entire trip and came out very late in the stretch. He continues to be a threat. (8) PROVEN DESIRE closed powerfully late last week and trainer Brealey goes to his main driver here; consider.

Race 10

(3) AVATARTIST drops a few levels here and is sharp and ready to beat a group like this; coast-to-coast. (6) TENDTOWIN was a good 2nd last time he raced in this class three weeks ago and should offer some value in the exotics. (5) BIG CITY JEWEL also steps down in class and will be coming late. (7) THE BIG YEAR beat easier powerfully but may find the class-droppers a bit too tough here. (4) SOUTHWIND AMAZON is usually around at the finish at this level and should be used in lower rungs of exotic wagers.