Jeff Benton
For Saturday, we’ll take a shot with the Tigers and All-Star right-hander Justin Verlander in an afternoon affair in the Bronx against the Yankees and CC Sabathia.
Verlander ended a sensational first half of the season with an impressive 10-1 win over the Indians on Sunday, pitching seven scoreless innings while allowing just five hits and striking out eight. The veteran right-hander has won consecutive starts, punching out 19 in 13 innings, and he’s now 10-4 with a 3.38 ERA overall. One of those 10 wins came against Sabathia and the Yankees back on April 27 in Motown, with Verlander handcuffing the Bronx Bombers as he pitched seven scoreless frames and notched nine Ks while giving up seven hits and no walks.
Verlander is now 3-1 in five career regular-season starts against the Yankees, plus he guided Detroit to a playoff victory over New York back in 2006. Even more impressive, he’s faced Sabathia five times in his career (including CC’s days with Cleveland), and he’s 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA. On the other hand, Sabathia is 2-3 with a 6.21 ERA in those five head-to-head matchups with Verlander, and he’s 3-6 with a 5.16 ERA in his last 10 starts against the Tigers since 2006!
Sabathia is coming off that 5-4 loss at the Angels six days ago (costing me my biggest play of the MLB season), and he gave up all five runs on nine hits and three walks in 6 2/3 innings, dropping to 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA in his last three trips to the hill. He’s also struggled in new Yankee Stadium this year, going 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA in eight starts, five of which New York has lost.
Another point about Sabathia that must be made: At 300 pounds, he’s not exactly svelte, and judging by his stats in day games this year (0-3, 5.70 ERA in eight starts, with the Yanks going 1-7), the lefty clearly struggles with stamina when pitching under the hot sun. In fact, Sabathia averages less than six innings in day games while averaging more than 7 1/3 innings in night games. That’s telling!
So to get a pitcher as good as Verlander at this kind of a plus price against a portly pitcher like Sabathia who obviously can’t stand the heat and humidity of day games (and obviously doesn’t like facing Detroit) is good enough value for me. Ride the road pup here.
(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)
4♦ DETROIT
For Saturday, we’ll take a shot with the Tigers and All-Star right-hander Justin Verlander in an afternoon affair in the Bronx against the Yankees and CC Sabathia.
Verlander ended a sensational first half of the season with an impressive 10-1 win over the Indians on Sunday, pitching seven scoreless innings while allowing just five hits and striking out eight. The veteran right-hander has won consecutive starts, punching out 19 in 13 innings, and he’s now 10-4 with a 3.38 ERA overall. One of those 10 wins came against Sabathia and the Yankees back on April 27 in Motown, with Verlander handcuffing the Bronx Bombers as he pitched seven scoreless frames and notched nine Ks while giving up seven hits and no walks.
Verlander is now 3-1 in five career regular-season starts against the Yankees, plus he guided Detroit to a playoff victory over New York back in 2006. Even more impressive, he’s faced Sabathia five times in his career (including CC’s days with Cleveland), and he’s 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA. On the other hand, Sabathia is 2-3 with a 6.21 ERA in those five head-to-head matchups with Verlander, and he’s 3-6 with a 5.16 ERA in his last 10 starts against the Tigers since 2006!
Sabathia is coming off that 5-4 loss at the Angels six days ago (costing me my biggest play of the MLB season), and he gave up all five runs on nine hits and three walks in 6 2/3 innings, dropping to 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA in his last three trips to the hill. He’s also struggled in new Yankee Stadium this year, going 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA in eight starts, five of which New York has lost.
Another point about Sabathia that must be made: At 300 pounds, he’s not exactly svelte, and judging by his stats in day games this year (0-3, 5.70 ERA in eight starts, with the Yanks going 1-7), the lefty clearly struggles with stamina when pitching under the hot sun. In fact, Sabathia averages less than six innings in day games while averaging more than 7 1/3 innings in night games. That’s telling!
So to get a pitcher as good as Verlander at this kind of a plus price against a portly pitcher like Sabathia who obviously can’t stand the heat and humidity of day games (and obviously doesn’t like facing Detroit) is good enough value for me. Ride the road pup here.
(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)
4♦ DETROIT
Matt Rivers
Astros plus 135 on Thursday!
Rays on Friday!
For Saturday take the Brewers.
Manny Parra certainly has not been good this season and it led to the demotion but his first start back up was great last week and when push comes to shove the Brewers are far superior to the Reds.
Aaron Harang is a professional hurler who at anytime can look very good. The guy has had his issues at times though this season including that last outing at CitiField against the Mets where he lasted a whole three innings. I like the tall junkballer, I really do, but he has not won a game since May 25th and in this spot against bashers in Braun and Fielder along with other solid players like Cameron, Hardy and Hart I can't help but go against Harang and back the visiting Brew Crew.
Parra is a talented lefty who has been disappointing for sure but the upside is there and against a fairly weak weak Cincinnati lineup I expect Parra to once again look pretty good. With Jay Bruce out there really is not much more on the Reds besides Joey Votto. Brandon Phillips can be good but all in all we are looking at Votto and not much else at all.
If the bad and non confident Parra shows up then we certainly could be in some trouble here. But Milwaukee is clearly the superior club of these two and with te Reds reeling offense I think we'll see the quality Parra start and pick up the win!
2♦ Brewers (out of 5♦)
Astros plus 135 on Thursday!
Rays on Friday!
For Saturday take the Brewers.
Manny Parra certainly has not been good this season and it led to the demotion but his first start back up was great last week and when push comes to shove the Brewers are far superior to the Reds.
Aaron Harang is a professional hurler who at anytime can look very good. The guy has had his issues at times though this season including that last outing at CitiField against the Mets where he lasted a whole three innings. I like the tall junkballer, I really do, but he has not won a game since May 25th and in this spot against bashers in Braun and Fielder along with other solid players like Cameron, Hardy and Hart I can't help but go against Harang and back the visiting Brew Crew.
Parra is a talented lefty who has been disappointing for sure but the upside is there and against a fairly weak weak Cincinnati lineup I expect Parra to once again look pretty good. With Jay Bruce out there really is not much more on the Reds besides Joey Votto. Brandon Phillips can be good but all in all we are looking at Votto and not much else at all.
If the bad and non confident Parra shows up then we certainly could be in some trouble here. But Milwaukee is clearly the superior club of these two and with te Reds reeling offense I think we'll see the quality Parra start and pick up the win!
2♦ Brewers (out of 5♦)
Jake Timlin
Battle of a pair of aces in St. Louis today look low as runs will be at a premium.
Helping to keep the Diamondbacks off the scoreboard will be Wainwright and his 1.39 ERA over his last four starts that has lead to four start games landing under the posted price.
Countering for Arizona is Haren who has been one of the toughest pitchers to score on this season given his 2.01 season ERA and even lower ERA of 0.77 over his last three starts.
Simple, with both pitchers fully rested thanks to the break I expect for pitching to lead the way for a low score game today at Busch Stadium.
2♦ St. Louis & Arizona UNDER the Total
(Based on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)
Battle of a pair of aces in St. Louis today look low as runs will be at a premium.
Helping to keep the Diamondbacks off the scoreboard will be Wainwright and his 1.39 ERA over his last four starts that has lead to four start games landing under the posted price.
Countering for Arizona is Haren who has been one of the toughest pitchers to score on this season given his 2.01 season ERA and even lower ERA of 0.77 over his last three starts.
Simple, with both pitchers fully rested thanks to the break I expect for pitching to lead the way for a low score game today at Busch Stadium.
2♦ St. Louis & Arizona UNDER the Total
(Based on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)
By Sports Gambling Hotline, Featured Handicapper
Friday night comp play winner on Philadelphia to make it 4 straight comp play winners!
Going right back to the well on Saturday with the Phils once again.
Philly has now won their last 7, and 11 of their last 12. They have been getting solid pitching, and timely hitting, and that is a winning formula, as the Phillies are seriously threatening to put the NL East on-ice in the early goings of the second half of the season.
The Phillies are now 6-2 in the season series against their division rival, and 8-2 overall their last 10 versus the Marlins.
Josh Johnson has become the Florida "ace", but the Marlins have now lost 6 of their last 9, and they are facing the resurgent Joe Blanton who is a solid 2-1 his last 3 starts, with an ERA in that span of just 1.83.
All the value tonight rests with the red-hot visitor.
Play on Philly.
5♦ PHILADELPHIA
Friday night comp play winner on Philadelphia to make it 4 straight comp play winners!
Going right back to the well on Saturday with the Phils once again.
Philly has now won their last 7, and 11 of their last 12. They have been getting solid pitching, and timely hitting, and that is a winning formula, as the Phillies are seriously threatening to put the NL East on-ice in the early goings of the second half of the season.
The Phillies are now 6-2 in the season series against their division rival, and 8-2 overall their last 10 versus the Marlins.
Josh Johnson has become the Florida "ace", but the Marlins have now lost 6 of their last 9, and they are facing the resurgent Joe Blanton who is a solid 2-1 his last 3 starts, with an ERA in that span of just 1.83.
All the value tonight rests with the red-hot visitor.
Play on Philly.
5♦ PHILADELPHIA
#1 Sports
Tampa Bay Rays + 120
Mike Wynn
Arizona w/Haren +105 Over St Louis
Platinum Plays
SEATTLE MARINERS + 100 OVER the Cleveland Indians
Totals4U
Minnesota/Texas under 10 1/2
Big Time
MINNESOTA / TEXAS OVER 10
Computer Sports
METS/BRAVES UNDER 7.5
Nevada Sharpshooter
Rays +120 over Royals MLB
Dr. Vegas
Pittsburgh -110 over San Francisco
TV Hotline
KC -130 over Tampa Bay
Harry Doyle Sports
Rangers - 120
High Stakes Syndicate
Colorado Rockies pick 'em
Trace Adams
San Diego Padres
Tampa Bay Rays + 120
Mike Wynn
Arizona w/Haren +105 Over St Louis
Platinum Plays
SEATTLE MARINERS + 100 OVER the Cleveland Indians
Totals4U
Minnesota/Texas under 10 1/2
Big Time
MINNESOTA / TEXAS OVER 10
Computer Sports
METS/BRAVES UNDER 7.5
Nevada Sharpshooter
Rays +120 over Royals MLB
Dr. Vegas
Pittsburgh -110 over San Francisco
TV Hotline
KC -130 over Tampa Bay
Harry Doyle Sports
Rangers - 120
High Stakes Syndicate
Colorado Rockies pick 'em
Trace Adams
San Diego Padres
Matt Fargo
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: New York Mets
The Mets have to break this streak and what better way to do so than with their ace. The Mets are a good candidate to break out in the second half and it will all start with pitching as the offense has been held in check. Johan Santana gets the ball today as he looks to snap the current two-game losing streak in this set. He closed the first half with two straight quality outings and he faces a team he has had great success against despite not getting the wins. Since coming over to the Mets, he has faced Atlanta four times and all four games have been quality starts, posting a 1.98 ERA. He goes up against Kenshin Kawakami who has been solid but inconsistent at times this season. Only seven of his 16 starts this season have been quality outings and pitching in the daylight has not been kind to him. In four early starts, he has a 5.96 ERA and 1.41 WHIP and that ERA is close to two and a half runs more than it is in his 12 nighttime starts. The Mets are 21-6 in Santanas last 27 starts following a quality outing in his last start while the Braves are 1-5 in Kawakamis last six starts following a quality outing in his last start. The Mets need a boost and this is the game that is happens.
3* New York Mets
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: New York Mets
The Mets have to break this streak and what better way to do so than with their ace. The Mets are a good candidate to break out in the second half and it will all start with pitching as the offense has been held in check. Johan Santana gets the ball today as he looks to snap the current two-game losing streak in this set. He closed the first half with two straight quality outings and he faces a team he has had great success against despite not getting the wins. Since coming over to the Mets, he has faced Atlanta four times and all four games have been quality starts, posting a 1.98 ERA. He goes up against Kenshin Kawakami who has been solid but inconsistent at times this season. Only seven of his 16 starts this season have been quality outings and pitching in the daylight has not been kind to him. In four early starts, he has a 5.96 ERA and 1.41 WHIP and that ERA is close to two and a half runs more than it is in his 12 nighttime starts. The Mets are 21-6 in Santanas last 27 starts following a quality outing in his last start while the Braves are 1-5 in Kawakamis last six starts following a quality outing in his last start. The Mets need a boost and this is the game that is happens.
3* New York Mets
Spartan
For today free I'm heading west to the Angels as they turn to Jered Weaver to rebound against Oakland. Weaver, 10-3, 3.22 could have easily been tabbed an All Star with the year he has produced. I feel he is the right guy at the right time to get it done for Mike Scioscia and the Angels. He gets a good draw here against the A's Vin Mazzaro 2-5, 3.59. Mazzaro has better stuff than his record indicates but he has lost his last 5 decisions and his bad luck held out here in my opinion with this matchup against Jered.
I feel the price is reasonable at -125 and am taking the Angels to strike back tonight
For today free I'm heading west to the Angels as they turn to Jered Weaver to rebound against Oakland. Weaver, 10-3, 3.22 could have easily been tabbed an All Star with the year he has produced. I feel he is the right guy at the right time to get it done for Mike Scioscia and the Angels. He gets a good draw here against the A's Vin Mazzaro 2-5, 3.59. Mazzaro has better stuff than his record indicates but he has lost his last 5 decisions and his bad luck held out here in my opinion with this matchup against Jered.
I feel the price is reasonable at -125 and am taking the Angels to strike back tonight
Chris Jordan
Colorado -105 at SAN DIEGO
Doesn’t seem too long ago the Rockies were doormats in the National League. Ten games below .500 and bye-bye Clint Hurdle. Less than two months later – 50 days to be exact – the Rockies are eight games above .500 and are looking like a serious threat as a postseason contender, just two years after appearing in the World Series.
Let’s forget about the NL West race for a moment, and just talk Wild Card, because the Rockies trail the Dodgers by seven games in the division. However, if San Francisco loses to Pittsburgh tonight, and Colorado beats San Diego for the eighth time this season, the Rockies take a one-half game lead over the Giants in the Wild-Card race.
No problem, as I’ll bank on Jason Hammel to do his job once again. Over his last 10 starts, Colorado has won nine of these games. I know he closed the first half of the season with a pair of rough outings, but let me alert you to the fact in eight starts from May 24 - July 1 Hammel went 5-1 with a 3.47 ERA.
He should have his way against a lineup that is batting a major league-worst .232. San Diego had three hits in last night’s 5-3 loss and dropped to a major league-worst 11-29 since the beginning of June.
All Rockies tonight.
1♦ ROCKIES
Colorado -105 at SAN DIEGO
Doesn’t seem too long ago the Rockies were doormats in the National League. Ten games below .500 and bye-bye Clint Hurdle. Less than two months later – 50 days to be exact – the Rockies are eight games above .500 and are looking like a serious threat as a postseason contender, just two years after appearing in the World Series.
Let’s forget about the NL West race for a moment, and just talk Wild Card, because the Rockies trail the Dodgers by seven games in the division. However, if San Francisco loses to Pittsburgh tonight, and Colorado beats San Diego for the eighth time this season, the Rockies take a one-half game lead over the Giants in the Wild-Card race.
No problem, as I’ll bank on Jason Hammel to do his job once again. Over his last 10 starts, Colorado has won nine of these games. I know he closed the first half of the season with a pair of rough outings, but let me alert you to the fact in eight starts from May 24 - July 1 Hammel went 5-1 with a 3.47 ERA.
He should have his way against a lineup that is batting a major league-worst .232. San Diego had three hits in last night’s 5-3 loss and dropped to a major league-worst 11-29 since the beginning of June.
All Rockies tonight.
1♦ ROCKIES
Drew Gordon
Minnesota at TEXAS -125
Now on a 26-16 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Phillies over the Marlins 6-5 Friday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Minnesota/Texas match up...
Good spot for the Rangers to get back on track, as they've lost 4 of their last 5 games, including yesterday's 5-3 loss to the Twins. Why is this a good spot? Well, it starts with the pitching match up, which clearly favors the Rangers...
Scott Feldman gets the nod for Texas, and there's a couple things I like about the Rangers righty: A. He's 3-0 with a strong 2.89 ERA over his last 3 starts, including back-to-back home wins against two top-tier offenses in the Rays and Angels. And B. His 3-1 record and 3.63 ERA in Arlington are no accident, as he's been at his best in front of the home fans. True, he's got poor career numbers against the Twins, but you can say the same about Minny's starter.
Speaking of the Twins starter, Scott Baker will be opposing Feldman in this one, and that's good news as far as I'm concerned. Yes, Baker has pitched well on the road of late, but overall he's looked anything but good, posting a disgusting 6.91 ERA over his last 3 starts. What's worse is his numbers vs the Rangers are pathetic, going 0-2 with a 7.47 ERA in 3 career starts!
Finally, I told you with my paid play winner on the Twins last night, that the Rangers would have trouble with the lefty Perkins, and I was dead-on. Fast forward to tonight's match up, and no such issue arises... Not only have the Rangers crushed Baker in the past, but they're also hitting righties much better of late, batting .258 against them over their last 10 (compared to just .233 vs lefties). In the end, look for the Rangers to snap their slide behind Feldman Saturday night at home!
Take Texas behind Feldman over Minnesota and Baker in this MLB match up.
2♦ TEXAS
Minnesota at TEXAS -125
Now on a 26-16 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Phillies over the Marlins 6-5 Friday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Minnesota/Texas match up...
Good spot for the Rangers to get back on track, as they've lost 4 of their last 5 games, including yesterday's 5-3 loss to the Twins. Why is this a good spot? Well, it starts with the pitching match up, which clearly favors the Rangers...
Scott Feldman gets the nod for Texas, and there's a couple things I like about the Rangers righty: A. He's 3-0 with a strong 2.89 ERA over his last 3 starts, including back-to-back home wins against two top-tier offenses in the Rays and Angels. And B. His 3-1 record and 3.63 ERA in Arlington are no accident, as he's been at his best in front of the home fans. True, he's got poor career numbers against the Twins, but you can say the same about Minny's starter.
Speaking of the Twins starter, Scott Baker will be opposing Feldman in this one, and that's good news as far as I'm concerned. Yes, Baker has pitched well on the road of late, but overall he's looked anything but good, posting a disgusting 6.91 ERA over his last 3 starts. What's worse is his numbers vs the Rangers are pathetic, going 0-2 with a 7.47 ERA in 3 career starts!
Finally, I told you with my paid play winner on the Twins last night, that the Rangers would have trouble with the lefty Perkins, and I was dead-on. Fast forward to tonight's match up, and no such issue arises... Not only have the Rangers crushed Baker in the past, but they're also hitting righties much better of late, batting .258 against them over their last 10 (compared to just .233 vs lefties). In the end, look for the Rangers to snap their slide behind Feldman Saturday night at home!
Take Texas behind Feldman over Minnesota and Baker in this MLB match up.
2♦ TEXAS
Bobby Maxwell
Minnesota at TEXAS -120
Tonight's FREE winner comes from Arlington as we go with the Rangers at home against the Twins.
The Rangers are in need of a big pitching performance from righty Scott Feldman (8-2, 3.83 ERA) today as they've dropped three in a row and find themselves 2 1/2 behind the Angels in the A.L. West standings. I expect Feldman to step up and deliver like the ace he's becoming right before our eyes.
Feldman is 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three outings and 3-1 in front of the home fans this season. The Rangers have won his last four starts and last time out he held the Mariners to two runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings of a 6-4 Texas victory. He's gone at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts, giving the Rangers just what they need tonight.
On the mound for the Twins is Scott Baker (7-7, 5.42) who has a 6.91 ERA in his last three outings and a 5.01 ERA on the road. On Sunday, the White Sox got him for five runs in 6.1 innings but the offense bailed him out with a 13-7 victory. He's allowed 10 runs in his last 9.1 innings and just hasn't looked good lately.
Minnesota is 0-6 when Baker starts as an underdog while the Rangers are 5-2 in Feldman's last seven at home. Texas is also on runs of 5-1 at home, 4-0 in the second game of a series and 20-8 at home against teams with losing road records.
I love Feldman and his tenacity. Play the Rangers in this one.
2♦ TEXAS
Minnesota at TEXAS -120
Tonight's FREE winner comes from Arlington as we go with the Rangers at home against the Twins.
The Rangers are in need of a big pitching performance from righty Scott Feldman (8-2, 3.83 ERA) today as they've dropped three in a row and find themselves 2 1/2 behind the Angels in the A.L. West standings. I expect Feldman to step up and deliver like the ace he's becoming right before our eyes.
Feldman is 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three outings and 3-1 in front of the home fans this season. The Rangers have won his last four starts and last time out he held the Mariners to two runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings of a 6-4 Texas victory. He's gone at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts, giving the Rangers just what they need tonight.
On the mound for the Twins is Scott Baker (7-7, 5.42) who has a 6.91 ERA in his last three outings and a 5.01 ERA on the road. On Sunday, the White Sox got him for five runs in 6.1 innings but the offense bailed him out with a 13-7 victory. He's allowed 10 runs in his last 9.1 innings and just hasn't looked good lately.
Minnesota is 0-6 when Baker starts as an underdog while the Rangers are 5-2 in Feldman's last seven at home. Texas is also on runs of 5-1 at home, 4-0 in the second game of a series and 20-8 at home against teams with losing road records.
I love Feldman and his tenacity. Play the Rangers in this one.
2♦ TEXAS
LT Profits Sports Group
Clayton Kershaw has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball over his last six starts, and he has a 1.85 ERA at home for the whole season. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line.
Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers has been almost unhittable over his last six starts, and while Mike Hampton is a Comeback Player of the Year candidate for the Houston Astros, he showed in his last start that he is capable of imploding at any time.
Kershaw has allowed a grand total of three runs on only 19 hits in 35.2 innings in those six starts, including four scoreless outings! Believe it or not, he has actually been better over his last three outings, where he allowed one run and six hits in 17 innings with 16 strikeouts. Kershaw has been excellent at home all year, where he has a deceptive 2-2 record with a sparkling 1.85 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in nine starts.
Now Hampton was on a nice roll entering his last start, but he was then promptly roughed up for five runs and nine hits in just 3.2 innings by the lowly Washington Nationals of all clubs. Yes, he had allowed three runs or less in five straight starts prior to that outings, but that last start has us a bit concerned, and he will need to be on top of his game to match Kershaw in his raging current form.
While Hampton is better than his last start, we still expect the Dodgers to scratch out enough runs off of him here for a Run Line victory.
Free Pick: Dodgers -1½ (+115)
Clayton Kershaw has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball over his last six starts, and he has a 1.85 ERA at home for the whole season. Take the Dodgers on the Run Line.
Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers has been almost unhittable over his last six starts, and while Mike Hampton is a Comeback Player of the Year candidate for the Houston Astros, he showed in his last start that he is capable of imploding at any time.
Kershaw has allowed a grand total of three runs on only 19 hits in 35.2 innings in those six starts, including four scoreless outings! Believe it or not, he has actually been better over his last three outings, where he allowed one run and six hits in 17 innings with 16 strikeouts. Kershaw has been excellent at home all year, where he has a deceptive 2-2 record with a sparkling 1.85 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in nine starts.
Now Hampton was on a nice roll entering his last start, but he was then promptly roughed up for five runs and nine hits in just 3.2 innings by the lowly Washington Nationals of all clubs. Yes, he had allowed three runs or less in five straight starts prior to that outings, but that last start has us a bit concerned, and he will need to be on top of his game to match Kershaw in his raging current form.
While Hampton is better than his last start, we still expect the Dodgers to scratch out enough runs off of him here for a Run Line victory.
Free Pick: Dodgers -1½ (+115)
Joe Freda
Huge purses for both thoroughbreds and harness racing are on the Saturday schedule, with El Crespo the pick to take the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs.
Two of the racing world’s biggest money events for three-year olds in both thoroughbred and harness racing come on Saturday with the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs in the afternoon and the Meadowlands Pace in New Jersey under the lights in the evening. Although the summer racing season has its marquee events coming up like the Travers Stakes and Haskell Invitational, today’s rich events are not to be overshadowed and will have lots of betting on them from around the globe.
The Virginia Derby – The Turf’s Top Four
Colonial Downs in Virginia has remained a big draw year after year for racing enthusiasts liking their action on the turf. With a purse of $750,000, the Virginia Derby is drawing in comers from all over as a field of 9 three-year olds will be turfing it up for 1-1/4 miles on Saturday afternoon. Although the morning line favorite for this race, Nicanor, has been scratched, there are four other top contenders which are sure to look attractive – but which ones are for real?
The new favorite and horse to beat for today’s race will be Battle of Hastings ridden by Tyler Baze, who has been aboard for five straight mounts and was victorious in three of them. Most recently, Battle of Hastings won the Colonial Turf Cup last month and came out on top by a head in his own battle against another Virginia Derby competitor, Straight Story, as the two hit the wire together.
By adding 1/16 of a mile more in distance from that race, the rematch between these two will be interesting to see who has enough left in the tank for that last closing kick. Battle of Hasting’s speed figures have been off the chart, and Baze has been able to guide him into the winner’s circle even with having to go wide – showing that a #9 post today will not even be a problem. However, it is the low odds here that will make me pass in taking him and I advise looking elsewhere for the best value.
Hold Me Back is another contender I am avoiding due to an underlay in the morning line odds. Although you could see quite a price difference on all of today’s entries with Nicanor being scratched, a morning line of only 5-1 for Hold Me Back makes me feel up front that the odds will not be high enough to consider him. Trainer Bill Mott who is always worthy of respect may not be picking his spot here as carefully as he should be. Hold Me Back has actually not raced since the Kentucky Derby last month where jockey Kent Desormeaux faded early on him to finish a disappointing 12th place. Although this horse has proven in the past that he can go long distances like 1-1/8 miles, he has not had a single race on turf ever and although horses are born to run on grass, that switch along with this being the fifth different track in his five most recent starts could make this a tough return.
Now on to two contenders that I feel have more value and are worth some consideration for your betting dollars – El Crespo and Florentino. Both are listed in the morning line at 6-1 odds but could go off much higher so keep an eye out and take advantage of a nice overlay on these two.
Right behind Florentino in the Jefferson Cup last month at Churchill Downs was El Crespo as they both went 1-1/8 miles on the turf finishing first and second, respectively. I look for them to both finish a crisp 1-2 again today but with El Crespo getting the win this time.
El Crespo has not been in the winner’s circle since four starts ago when scoring a victory at Gulfstream Partk on the turf there going 1-1/8 miles. He has hit the board in all five lifetime starts on turf and despite losing to Florentino at Churchill Downs, achieving a 106 speed figure was El Crespo’s best ever – even with the turf a bit wet that day. Also like Florentino, El Crespo never came in the money when racing on dirt and someone casually looking at the past performances may not remember to throw out those outings as they mean nothing here.
Aboard El Crespo, jockey Julien Leparoux has had a good meet at Colonial Downs with the four mounts he has had resulting in two wins. With the long 1-1/4 mile distance, it is always an edge to have a jockey in the saddle that has had success at a turf-specialty track like this one. I look for Leparoux to stay near the lead with El Crespo most of the way and use that last 1/8 of a mile to close for the win.
Florentino keeps jockey Alan Garcia aboard today for his fifth straight start and is looking to follow up the win in Kentucky last month with another here. All five of Florentino’s starts this year have come on the grass and was the betting favorite for only one of his three wins from those five. This proves that he has been overlooked by the betting public and will again not go off as the favorite today.
In his last four starts, Florentino has seen the speed figure from each race improve each time and that especially says a lot when done over three different tracks at various distances. I feel Florentino will again try to go for an early lead here today and stay on or near the front. Although there is clearly better competition in this race compared to anyone faced before, I feel trainer Kiraran McLaughlin has a good chance entering Florentino here for the big payday – and hopefully a payday at the betting windows for us gamblers also. 2009 is the year Florentino has found his calling on turf and should be one to watch from here after including him in your top two for the Virginia Derby.
The Meadowlands Pace - Chalk city in East Rutherford
If the Virginia Derby is not enough action for you on Saturday, one of harness racing’s biggest nights of the year takes the dark stage at the Meadowlands Racetrack with 10 three-year old pacers battling it out for $1,000,000. Having grown up in New Jersey, I have attended my share of Meadowlands Pace nights and the crowd is always full of money as they enjoy their time at the Big M.
It is hard to go against the Meadowlands Pace favorite, Well Said, as driver Ron Pierce will be going for his fourth straight win with this pacer. Well Said finished ahead of Meadowlands Pace second choice Art Colony in last week’s Pace elimination race and another million dollar race, the North America Cup, two weeks before that. Not much value in the race as Well Said listed at 6-5 in the morning line will be sure to go off at under even money. But if you like the chalk, by all means unload here.
The only longshot that I feel is worth a small investment in the Pace is Vintage Master. Despite only having one win in 22 lifetime starts, the win came at the Big M only two weeks ago and you never know if that will finally mean something here. Furthermore, he was placed third in last week’s elimination right behind Well Said and Art Colony. The closing kick was there in that one for Vintage Master with the final quarter mile being paced in 26 and 4/5 seconds – making it even faster than the top two finishers closed. So at some high odds, Vintage Master is worth a few bucks at the betting windows or possibly using in exotics for tonight’s race.
Have a great Saturday and check back here next week as we will be heading out west and looking at the first weekend of the popular Del Mar meet on Saturday and Sunday. Where the turf meets the surf – and where tourist betting action can help fill your wallet!
Huge purses for both thoroughbreds and harness racing are on the Saturday schedule, with El Crespo the pick to take the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs.
Two of the racing world’s biggest money events for three-year olds in both thoroughbred and harness racing come on Saturday with the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs in the afternoon and the Meadowlands Pace in New Jersey under the lights in the evening. Although the summer racing season has its marquee events coming up like the Travers Stakes and Haskell Invitational, today’s rich events are not to be overshadowed and will have lots of betting on them from around the globe.
The Virginia Derby – The Turf’s Top Four
Colonial Downs in Virginia has remained a big draw year after year for racing enthusiasts liking their action on the turf. With a purse of $750,000, the Virginia Derby is drawing in comers from all over as a field of 9 three-year olds will be turfing it up for 1-1/4 miles on Saturday afternoon. Although the morning line favorite for this race, Nicanor, has been scratched, there are four other top contenders which are sure to look attractive – but which ones are for real?
The new favorite and horse to beat for today’s race will be Battle of Hastings ridden by Tyler Baze, who has been aboard for five straight mounts and was victorious in three of them. Most recently, Battle of Hastings won the Colonial Turf Cup last month and came out on top by a head in his own battle against another Virginia Derby competitor, Straight Story, as the two hit the wire together.
By adding 1/16 of a mile more in distance from that race, the rematch between these two will be interesting to see who has enough left in the tank for that last closing kick. Battle of Hasting’s speed figures have been off the chart, and Baze has been able to guide him into the winner’s circle even with having to go wide – showing that a #9 post today will not even be a problem. However, it is the low odds here that will make me pass in taking him and I advise looking elsewhere for the best value.
Hold Me Back is another contender I am avoiding due to an underlay in the morning line odds. Although you could see quite a price difference on all of today’s entries with Nicanor being scratched, a morning line of only 5-1 for Hold Me Back makes me feel up front that the odds will not be high enough to consider him. Trainer Bill Mott who is always worthy of respect may not be picking his spot here as carefully as he should be. Hold Me Back has actually not raced since the Kentucky Derby last month where jockey Kent Desormeaux faded early on him to finish a disappointing 12th place. Although this horse has proven in the past that he can go long distances like 1-1/8 miles, he has not had a single race on turf ever and although horses are born to run on grass, that switch along with this being the fifth different track in his five most recent starts could make this a tough return.
Now on to two contenders that I feel have more value and are worth some consideration for your betting dollars – El Crespo and Florentino. Both are listed in the morning line at 6-1 odds but could go off much higher so keep an eye out and take advantage of a nice overlay on these two.
Right behind Florentino in the Jefferson Cup last month at Churchill Downs was El Crespo as they both went 1-1/8 miles on the turf finishing first and second, respectively. I look for them to both finish a crisp 1-2 again today but with El Crespo getting the win this time.
El Crespo has not been in the winner’s circle since four starts ago when scoring a victory at Gulfstream Partk on the turf there going 1-1/8 miles. He has hit the board in all five lifetime starts on turf and despite losing to Florentino at Churchill Downs, achieving a 106 speed figure was El Crespo’s best ever – even with the turf a bit wet that day. Also like Florentino, El Crespo never came in the money when racing on dirt and someone casually looking at the past performances may not remember to throw out those outings as they mean nothing here.
Aboard El Crespo, jockey Julien Leparoux has had a good meet at Colonial Downs with the four mounts he has had resulting in two wins. With the long 1-1/4 mile distance, it is always an edge to have a jockey in the saddle that has had success at a turf-specialty track like this one. I look for Leparoux to stay near the lead with El Crespo most of the way and use that last 1/8 of a mile to close for the win.
Florentino keeps jockey Alan Garcia aboard today for his fifth straight start and is looking to follow up the win in Kentucky last month with another here. All five of Florentino’s starts this year have come on the grass and was the betting favorite for only one of his three wins from those five. This proves that he has been overlooked by the betting public and will again not go off as the favorite today.
In his last four starts, Florentino has seen the speed figure from each race improve each time and that especially says a lot when done over three different tracks at various distances. I feel Florentino will again try to go for an early lead here today and stay on or near the front. Although there is clearly better competition in this race compared to anyone faced before, I feel trainer Kiraran McLaughlin has a good chance entering Florentino here for the big payday – and hopefully a payday at the betting windows for us gamblers also. 2009 is the year Florentino has found his calling on turf and should be one to watch from here after including him in your top two for the Virginia Derby.
The Meadowlands Pace - Chalk city in East Rutherford
If the Virginia Derby is not enough action for you on Saturday, one of harness racing’s biggest nights of the year takes the dark stage at the Meadowlands Racetrack with 10 three-year old pacers battling it out for $1,000,000. Having grown up in New Jersey, I have attended my share of Meadowlands Pace nights and the crowd is always full of money as they enjoy their time at the Big M.
It is hard to go against the Meadowlands Pace favorite, Well Said, as driver Ron Pierce will be going for his fourth straight win with this pacer. Well Said finished ahead of Meadowlands Pace second choice Art Colony in last week’s Pace elimination race and another million dollar race, the North America Cup, two weeks before that. Not much value in the race as Well Said listed at 6-5 in the morning line will be sure to go off at under even money. But if you like the chalk, by all means unload here.
The only longshot that I feel is worth a small investment in the Pace is Vintage Master. Despite only having one win in 22 lifetime starts, the win came at the Big M only two weeks ago and you never know if that will finally mean something here. Furthermore, he was placed third in last week’s elimination right behind Well Said and Art Colony. The closing kick was there in that one for Vintage Master with the final quarter mile being paced in 26 and 4/5 seconds – making it even faster than the top two finishers closed. So at some high odds, Vintage Master is worth a few bucks at the betting windows or possibly using in exotics for tonight’s race.
Have a great Saturday and check back here next week as we will be heading out west and looking at the first weekend of the popular Del Mar meet on Saturday and Sunday. Where the turf meets the surf – and where tourist betting action can help fill your wallet!
Big Al McMordie
It's the top pitching matchup of the day as Justin Verlander matches tosses with C.C. Sabathia. Take the Tigers on Saturday on the road at the New York Yankees.
Our Saturday afternoon MLB selection is on the Detroit Tigers on the road in the Bronx over the New York Yankees.
While the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays will likely slug it out in the second half in what should be a very competitive AL Eastern Division, the Tigers would seem to be the obvious cream of the AL Central crop at this point and may be in a position – injuries permitting – to coast to a pennant in the next three months. They almost certainly will have the best hitting in their division, and if their young pitchers can come through in the second half, then they could be very tough for anyone in their division to catch.
Justin Verlander will obviously be looked upon to be the leader of this young staff, and since he did not pitch in the All-Star game the Tigers have moved him up to Saturday instead of Sunday, producing perhaps the best pitching matchup of the weekend when he leads the Tigers into Yankee stadium to face C.C. Sabathia.
While Verlander's month of July has been pretty good so far (2-1 with a 3.32 ERA in three starts this month), Sabathia's has not as the big lefthander has gone 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA in three starts. Perhaps the biggest contrast between these two that could potentially have a huge impact in this contest is their performance to date in day games. Verlander is 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA in seven daytime starts while Sabathia is 0-3 with a 5.67 ERA in the same number of afternoon outings. Take the Tigers.
Free Pick: Tigers
It's the top pitching matchup of the day as Justin Verlander matches tosses with C.C. Sabathia. Take the Tigers on Saturday on the road at the New York Yankees.
Our Saturday afternoon MLB selection is on the Detroit Tigers on the road in the Bronx over the New York Yankees.
While the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays will likely slug it out in the second half in what should be a very competitive AL Eastern Division, the Tigers would seem to be the obvious cream of the AL Central crop at this point and may be in a position – injuries permitting – to coast to a pennant in the next three months. They almost certainly will have the best hitting in their division, and if their young pitchers can come through in the second half, then they could be very tough for anyone in their division to catch.
Justin Verlander will obviously be looked upon to be the leader of this young staff, and since he did not pitch in the All-Star game the Tigers have moved him up to Saturday instead of Sunday, producing perhaps the best pitching matchup of the weekend when he leads the Tigers into Yankee stadium to face C.C. Sabathia.
While Verlander's month of July has been pretty good so far (2-1 with a 3.32 ERA in three starts this month), Sabathia's has not as the big lefthander has gone 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA in three starts. Perhaps the biggest contrast between these two that could potentially have a huge impact in this contest is their performance to date in day games. Verlander is 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA in seven daytime starts while Sabathia is 0-3 with a 5.67 ERA in the same number of afternoon outings. Take the Tigers.
Free Pick: Tigers
