Saturday 07/18/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday 07/18/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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FYI, let's limit the comps to the first 2 pages, I need this thread to be utilized for chatter and what games members would like to pick up or split. Service thread getting way to much chatter. Ty.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trend Report

Saturday, July 18

3:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Montreal is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
Montreal is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Montreal
Saskatchewan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal

6:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. HAMILTON
Winnipeg is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Hamilton is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Canadian Bacon: Week 3 CFL predictions

Saturday, July 18

Montreal Alouettes (2-0) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (2-0) +4.5, 57.5

The only two unbeaten teams left in the CFL face each other Saturday afternoon in Regina. The Roughriders won their first two against the Lions and the Argonauts, but neither opponent has legitimate Grey Cup hopes for 2009.

The Als, on the other hand, rolled over the two West foes who are considered real contenders. Montreal showed it still has one of the deadliest offenses in the CFL and a much more efficient defence than last season. Running back Wes Cates, who missed the Riders’ first two games recovering from offseason shoulder injury, will probably be in the lineup. Hugh Charles filled in admirably in his absence, but Saskatchewan is a better team when Cates is on the backfield.

The Roughriders are always tough to beat in Regina, but I think Montreal is good enough to win and cover the number.

Pick: Montreal


Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-1) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-1) +1, 54

A Winnipeg scout was ejected on Tuesday after being caught taking notes during Hamilton’s practice. The news has created a Spygate-like controversy north of the border. But honestly, who wants to spy on the Ticats?

This will be a running back showdown between Winnipeg’s Fred Reid and CFL Offensive player of the week DeAndra’ Cobb. The Tiger-Cats will have more difficulty stopping Reid than Winnipeg will against Cobb. MLB Barrin Simpson and LB Siddeeq Shabazz have been impressive and Winnipeg’s defense already has eight takeaways after two games.

Pick: Winnipeg

Last week: 1-3

Season: 3-5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bets

Detroit Shock at Phoenix Mercury (-4, 172.5)

Phoenix will have to find a way to keep the temperature rising without suspended All-Star Diana Taurasi.

Taurasi, the league’s leading scorer at nearly 21 points per game, will serve the first of a two-game ban handed down by the team following her being charged with extreme DUI. That means the short-handed Mercury must find a way to beat the defending champs without their star.

But Detroit has looked nothing like a champion this season. The Shock are a woeful 4-7 and just 2-4 on the road despite winning their past two in an opponents’ gym.

"Coming into this year, if you look at us, we lost Elaine Powell, we lost Cheryl Ford, and we lost Plenette Pierson,” Shock coach Rick Mahorn told the Detroit Free Press. “You had three veterans you could rely on, day in and day out. Losing them, you're trying to get back into a groove."

Pick: Under 172.5


New York Liberty at Washington Mystics (-5, 142.5)

The Mystics fully understand what it will take to separate themselves from the rest of the pack that is tied for second in the Eastern Conference: defense.

"Something we said at the beginning of the season was that we wanted to be known as the best defensive team in the league," Mystics guard Lindsey Harding told the Washington Post. "It's just a matter of having that focus, that emphasis on one more stop. That's been all we've needed in some of these games, just one more stop, so we've really been focusing on just making the next stop."

Washington, however, has struggled to routinely make those stops, a big reason the team is fighting to stay around .500. The Mystics enter the game with just the eighth-ranked defense in the WNBA, allowing more than 77 points per game.

But if they Mystics want to improve on that number, they will eagerly welcome the Liberty. New York is horrendous on offense, as it ranks 13th in the league by averaging a wretched, 70.4 points per game.

Pick: Mystics -5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians

Let us take a second to introduce you to the team with the best record in one-run games in the American League: Seattle.

The Mariners have been amazing in close games this season, going 21-13 in contests decided by the slimmest of margins. The reason? The team’s pitching has been consitent all season. Seattle’s 3.72 ERA is the third-lowest in the majors and opponents are hitting just .245 against them. And when the Mariners have a late lead, you can lock it up. The team is tied for the major-league lead with 28 saves.

Cleveland, however, is just 12-12 in one-run games and has the worst pitching staff in the majors. Its 5.35 ERA is by far the poorest mark in the bigs. The Indians may have a slight edge in offense, but have a huge disadvantage in pitching and it won’t be enough as this team starts to pack it in during the dog days of summer.

Pick: Mariners


San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates (-109, 9)

So what do you get when you combine one of the best road-pitching teams in the majors and one of the best home-pitching teams in the majors with two mediocre offenses? Very few runs.

The pitching matchup of the Giants' Barry Zito against the Pirates' Charlie Morton might scare off some bettors, but in this case the stats don’t lie.

The Giants over/under record on the road this season is 17-22-3 and the team has gone under the total in six of its past 10 away games. On the other hand, the Pirates over/under record at home is 14-24-1. The under also has hit in eight of the Bucs past 10 home games.

Zito and Morton should be just good enough to stifle the opposing lineup and keep this one below the total.

Pick: Under 9

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Dan Haren (Arizona Diamondbacks)

Haren was even more dominant in his most recent start. If that’s possible.

The 28-year-old right-hander was nearly unhittable in his most recent outing, an 8-0 win against the Marlins in which he yielded just four hits, struck out 10 batters, walked one in the complete-game shutout. This season, Haren ranks in the Top 10 in the National League in wins, strikeouts, innings pitched, ERA, complete games and WHIP (walks + hits over innings pitched).

In nine starts since May 23, Haren (9-5, 2.01 ERA) has yielded no more than two earned runs in any outing and has lasted at least seven innings in all but one appearance.

"That sets off the fire alarms around here when he walks a guy," Arizona manager A.J. Hinch told the Associated Press.

Josh Johnson (Florida Marlins)

The 25-year-old right-hander has emerged as a legitimate Cy Young contender. Johnson (8-2, 2.74 ERA) also ranks in the Top 10 in the NL in virtually every statistical category as he has been the most consistent pitcher on the Senior Circuit this year.

Johnson has allowed more than three earned runs only once in 19 starts this year and has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 12 outings.

In his most recent start, Johnson allowed only one earned run on seven hits in 6 2-3 innings as he struck out seven in an 8-1 win over the Diamondbacks.


Slumping

Scott Kazmir (Tampa Bay Rays)

It’s been the unlucky sevens that Kazmir has had to worry about. After allowing seven runs in consecutive starts in May before a stint on the DL sidelined him for June, Kazmir appeared to slowly be regaining his form. He allowed just three earned runs in 10 innings in consecutive starts.

But then came the debacle on July 8 against Toronto. Kazmir was slammed for seven runs on nine hits in 6 1-3 innings as he gave up a pair of long balls.

If Kazmir can’t regain his form, the Rays have a huge hole in their rotation.

"It felt like I pitched way better than that," Kazmir, who hasn’t won since May 9, told the Associated Press. "It seems like I haven't gotten one break the whole year. I'm due."

Jason Hammel (Colorado Rockies)

Hammel’s 5-4 record and 4.43 ERA seem harmless enough. But he has been playing with fire and putting runners on base at an alarming rate.

In his past two starts, he’s allowed nine earned runs on 19 hits in just 8 2-3 innings. In his most recent outing against Atlanta, he last just three innings as he gave up five runs on nine hits.

Hammel’s 1.46 WHIP is the stat people should be looking at. The Rockies offense won’t be able to bail him out all season.

 

[goldencontender]

Saturday run line comp play-GC-

On Saturday the Bonus Play is on the LA-DODGERS--Run line at -1.5 .Rotation number 916 at 10:10 eastern.Not to worry.Giving a Bonus Play at -180 is like giving snow in the winter.However on the run line theres excellent value here.The Dodgers are now off 2 straight home losses to the Astros.Tonight they qualify in a solid system that has cashed 12 straight times.We play on home favorites of -140 or higher with a total of 8 or less if they come in off a home favored loss of 5 or more runs,scored 4 or less runs,had 4 or more hits and tonights opponent is off a road dog win having scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits.This system wins by an average 7-3 score.As a side bar the Dodgers are 9-0 off back to back losses.They have won every game by 2 or more runs.Hence the run line play.Houston is 1-4 this year off 3 straight wins.The Dodgers have a red hot C.Kershaw pitching and he has been awesome over his last 3 starts with a 0.53 era.At home this year LA has cashed 6 of his 9 starts and he has a solid 1.85 era.Houston counters with M.Hampton and they are just 5-10 in his starts this year.Hampton catches the Dodgers at the wrong time here tonight.For the late phone card I have 2 tremendous plays.A 24-2 totals system that has done serious damage.Plus a 100% Double system slammer.Friday the 5 unit revenge game cashed easily on the Reds.Take the Dodgers on the run line bol.GC-

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB WRITE-UP

Saturday, July 18

Hot Pitchers
-- Kawakami is 2-0, 3.72 in his last four starts. Santana is 1-1, 1.29 in his last couple starts, but Mets lost his last four road outings.
-- Wells is 4-1, 2.94 in his last five starts.
-- Blanton is 2-0, 0.61 in two starts this month. Johnson has a 2.70 RA in his last five starts.
-- Former Cardinal Haren is 6-1, 1.75 in his last nine starts. Wainwright is 2-0, 1.07 in his last three starts.
-- Hammel is 4-1, 2.0 in his last five road starts.
-- Hampton is 1-1, 2.50 in his last three road starts. Dodgers won last six Kershaw starts (4-0, 0.76).

-- Rzepzynski has a 3.00 RA in his first two big league starts.
-- Washburn is 3-1, 2.17 in his last four starts, but Mariners lost his last six road outings.
-- Baker is 2-0, 3.00 in his last three road starts. Rangers won Feldman's last four starts (3-0, 3.65), scoring 29 runs.

Cold Pitchers
-- Morton is 1-2, 4.50 in his last four starts. Zito is 2-3, 7.09 in his last six starts.
-- Nationals lost last three Zimmermann starts (0-1, 5.51).
-- Harang is 0-3, 6.51 in his last five starts. Parra is 0-2, 16.62 in his last three road starts.
-- Correia is 1-2, 7.02 in his last three starts.

-- Penny is 0-1, 3.97 in his last four starts.
-- Detroit lost last three Verlander road starts (0-2, 7.05). Sabathia is 1-2, 5.59 in his last three outings.
-- Weaver has a 7.28 RA in his last five starts. Oakland lost Mazzaro's last six starts (0-5, 5.29). A's scored total of six runs in those starts.
-- Buehrle has a 6.38 RA in his last four starts.
-- Guthrie is 2-4, 6.69 in his last seven starts.
-- Ohka is 0-3, 7.40 in four starts this season.
-- Greinke is 2-4, 5.16 in his last eight starts. Kazmir is 1-4, 9.84 in his last eight starts.

Hot Teams
-- Cubs won four of their last five games.
-- Braves won their last six home games.
-- Phillies won 11 of their last 12 games. Marlins won ten of their last thirteen home games, but lost last two.
-- Arizona won seven of its last ten games. Cardinals won nine of 13.
-- Rockies are 29-9 in their last 38 games, 15-4 in last 19 on road.
-- Astros won eight of their last ten games.

-- Red Sox won six of their last seven games.
-- Bronx Bombers won six of last eight home games.
-- Twins won six of their last eight road games. Rangers won five of their last six home games.
-- Orioles won four of their last six games. White Sox won seven of their last nine home games.
-- Angels won eight of their last twelve games. A's won three of their last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Pirates lost seven of their last nine games. Giants lost their last three road games, scoring total of four runs.
-- Reds lost seven of their last ten games. Brewers lost nine of last 13.
-- Mets lost nine of their last eleven road games.
-- Padres lost twelve of their last fourteen games.
-- Dodgers scored one run in losing their last two games.

-- Mariners are 15-23 in their last 38 road games. Indians lost six of last nine games.
-- Blue Jays lost five of their last six home games.
-- Tigers lost 11 of their last 15 road games.
-- Royals lost ten of their last thirteen home games. Rays lost 14 of last 21 road games.

Totals
-- Under is 13-4-1 in Cubs' last eighteen road games.
-- Eight of last nine games at PNC Park stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Cincinnati home games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last ten Arizona road games stayed under the total.
-- Last six games at Petco Park went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine games at Dodger Stadium stayed under the total.

-- Under is 19-6-2 in Seattle's last 27 road games.
-- Six of last eight Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last nine Detroit road games stayed under the total.
-- Last seven Minnesota road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Royals' last eight home games.
-- Six of last seven White Sox games went over the total.
-- 13 of Oakland's last 17 home games stayed under the total.

Umpires
-- NY-Atl-- Favorites won nine of last eleven Iassogna games.
-- SF-Pitt-- Under is 14-6-1 in Hoye's last 21 games behind plate.
-- Chi-Wsh-- Home team is 3-0 in Reyburn games (under 2-0-1).
-- Mil-Cin-- 10 of last 12 Runge games stayed under the total.
-- Phil-Fla-- Nine of last 12 Kellogg games stayed under the total.
-- Az-StL-- Both Tiller games this season stayed under the total.
-- Col-SD-- Seven of last nine Gibson games went over the total.
-- Hst-LA-- Favorites won eight of last ten Dimuro games.

-- Bos-Tor-- Favorites won five of last six Diaz games.
-- Det-NY-- Four of last five Davidson games stayed under the total.
-- Blt-Chi-- Eight of last twelve Reynolds games went over the total.
-- LA-A's-- Road team won seven of last eight Guccione games.
-- Sea-Clev-- Seven of last nine Demuth games stayed under the total.
-- TB-KC-- Underdog is 5-4 in Schrieber's last nine games behind dish.
-- Min-Tex-- Underdog won five of last six O'Nora games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trend Report

1:05 PM
DETROIT vs. NY YANKEES
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
NY Yankees are 15-8 SU in their last 23 games when playing at home against Detroit
NY Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Detroit

1:07 PM
BOSTON vs. TORONTO
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Boston

4:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Chi White Sox are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing Baltimore

4:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. OAKLAND
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Angels's last 10 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Angels

4:10 PM
NY METS vs. ATLANTA
NY Mets are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
NY Mets are 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games

7:05 PM
CHI CUBS vs. WASHINGTON
Chi Cubs are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 11 games when playing Chi Cubs

7:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. PITTSBURGH
San Francisco is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

7:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. CLEVELAND
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

7:10 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CINCINNATI
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Milwaukee is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee

7:10 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. FLORIDA
Philadelphia is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Florida
Florida is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

7:10 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games at home
Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

7:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
Arizona is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Arizona is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
St. Louis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona

8:05 PM
MINNESOTA vs. TEXAS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing Texas
Texas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Texas is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing Minnesota

10:05 PM
COLORADO vs. SAN DIEGO
Colorado is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 12 of San Diego's last 18 games when playing Colorado

10:10 PM
HOUSTON vs. LA DODGERS
Houston is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
LA Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Houston
LA Dodgers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Harvey

Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals u8.0 (-110)
Sat Jul 18 '09 7:05p

The Cubs needed a two-run double from pitcher Carlos Zambrano to beat the Nationals on Friday. That gives you an idea how they’re struggling at the plate. The Nationals despite a decent team batting average of .262 have struggled lately to get runners across the dish. Put that combination together and you’ve got the makings of a nice UNDER play in the nation’s capital.

The Cubs are banged up. Alfonso Soriano who was showing signs of breaking out a season long slump will miss today’s game with a swollen finger. Chicago is already without Geovany Soto who was also starting to heat up before he went on the DL.

Even the healthy Cubbies are struggling at the plate. Leadoff hitter Kos Fukodome is hitting just .255. Free agent bust Milton Bradley has a .239 BA. Backup catcher Koy Hill is batting just .208. Outside of Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs don’t have much else to offer offensively. As a team the Cubs are hitting .247 the second lowest average in the NL. The Cubs average just 4.14 runs per game, 26th in MLB.

Washington is in a 1 for 23 rut with runners in scoring position in the last three games, including an 0-for-8 performance Friday. The Nats rank 20th in baseball in runs scored with 4.31 per game.

The starting pitchers for tonight’s tilt are solid if not spectacular. Rookie Jordan Zimmerman will look for his fourth win of the year and at the same time given interim manager Jim Riggleman his first victory. Zimmermann,has a 2.70 ERA in his last seven games and three quality starts in his last four outings.

Fellow rookie Randy Wells goes for the Cubs. He’s 4-4 with a 2.72 ERA and was moved up one day to start in place of Ted Lilly. Wells will be after his fifth win in six outings.

If I didn’t make a compelling enough case to go low tonight consider these trends:
The UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight series meetngs in Washington and nine of the last 11 meetings have played to the low side. In addition the Cubs are 21-6 to the UNDER in their last 27 road games. Chicago is 49-36 to the UNDER this season while Washington is 47-39.

Playing total’s have been a risky proposistion for yours truly but given the way these two teams are struggling at the plate right now, a slugfest is definitely out of the question.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vernon Croy

MLB | Jul 18
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins
+111 at JAMAICA > 11h.
Take the Minnesota Twins on the Moneyline, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and we are getting great value again with the better overall team Saturday night. The Texas Rangers have now dropped 4 of their last 5 games and they were hitting just .229 as a team over their last 7 games before last night's loss against the Twins. The Twins are now 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog and they are 5-1 in Scott Baker's (7-7, 5.42 ERA) last 6 games against a team with a winning record. The Rangers are just 1-5 in Scott Feldman's (8-2, 3.83 ERA) last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and they are now just 1-5 in their last 6 games against an AL Central division opponent. Take the Minnesota Twins as my MLB Bonus Play for Saturday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Craig Trapp

MLB | Jul 18
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
-1½+115 at JAMAICA > 13h.

LAD -1.5 (+127): The Dodgers have had a rough start to the second half of the season as HOU has beat them 2 games in a row. Don't fear Dodger backers as they have there hottest pitcher going today, Clayton Kershaw. He has been super hot, in fact the LAD have not lost when he has been on the mound in his last 6 starts. In that span Kershaw is 4-0 with only 3 earned runs in 35 innings. WOW!!! On the other side HOU will turn to Mike Hampton who has been up and down all year. Bad news for Astro backers Hampton has been not good in his last 4 going 1-2 with a 5 plus ERA! Can't imagine that LAD won't break out the big bats and score 5 plus runs on a pitcher that can give up some huge innings! Not a close one here, LAD in a romp! SCORE: LAD 7 - HOU 1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Robbie Gainous

MLB | Jul 18
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Colorado Rockies
-109 at JAMAICA > 13h.
Game Three of the four-game series between the host San Diego Padres and the visiting Colorado Rockies is set for Saturday night at Petco Park with the first pitch scheduled for 10:05PM EST. Colorado is 25-22 W/L (+9.2) on the road this season and 107-78 W/L (+24.1) on the road during the second half of the season the last three years. The Rockies are 35-27 W/L (+9.0) when facing right-handed starters this season averaging 5.0 runs per game against them. They are also 12-4 W/L (+9.7) on the road versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs per game during the second half of the season and 11-3 W/L (+9.2) after having won at least six of their last eight games overall. Colorado will send Jason Hammel to the bump with his 5-4 W/L record and ERA of 4.43 on the season and the Rockies are 10-5 W/L this season when he starts the game. Hammel has been solid on the highway posting a record of 4-2 W/L with an ERA of 2.14. San Diego is 23-21 W/L (+1.2) at home this season scoring 3.7 runs per game against right-handed starters. They are 18-34 (-15.0) when facing a righty and 21-42 W/L (-19.5) versus a starter who gives up less than 1.75 walks per start the last two seasons. The Padres will hand the ball to Kevin Correia with his 6-7 W/L record and ERA of 4.59 this year. When he takes the bump at home he is only 3-3 W/L with an ERA of 4.68. We note that San Diego is ranked 30th in hitting with a batting average of .234. San Diego only averages 3.8 runs per game overall while the Rockies come in ranked 19th in hitting with a batting average of .259 scoring 5.1 runs per game. The overall pitching numbers favor the Rockies as well with the Padres ranked 27th in pitching with an ERA of 4.74 opponents have a batting average of .262 and OBP of .334 against them. Colorado is ranked 16th in pitching with an ERA of 4.32 opponents have a batting average of .268 and an OBP of .331 when facing them. We expect the better team to get the win here as the Rockies grab game three on Saturday night at Petco Park over the host Padres.

Graded Selection: 2* Colorado Rockies 2 San Diego Padres 0

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

SATURDAY CUBS -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(907) MILWAUKEE BREWERS
(908) CINCINNATI REDS
Take "(907) MILWAUKEE BREWERS"

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

(909) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
(910) FLORIDA MARLINS
Take "(909) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES"

The Phillies look like the defending champs now, pulling away in the NL East. One factor has been the return of All-Star Raul Ibanez, who hit two home runs in the first game after the break, giving him 24 this season. Starter Joe Blanton has been red-hot, at 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA his last three starts and this is a great pitcher's park. He is 3-0 lifetime against Florida. Play the Phillies.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Sports Investing Professional

Todays Play(s) - There are 2 worthy games on Saturday.
First...the Dodgers. I'm pretty sure everyone and their mother
is going to have the Dodgers tonight but with good reason...
Kershaw has been real good as of late and LA is one of the top
home teams in MLB.


Our second play is down in Texas. The Rangers are one of the
best home teams and Minnesota is one of the bottom on the road.
A good pitching matchup and a nice price certainly makes the
Rangers worth an investment.


MLB - LA Dodgers -180 [LISTED} Hampton / Kershaw....900.00 / 500.00


MLB - Texas Rangers -125 [LISTED} Baker / Feldman....625.00 / 500.00

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TV Hotline
KC -130 over Tampa Bay

Nevada Sharpshooter
Rays +120 over Royals MLB

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gold Cup soccer: Saturday's quarterfinal analysis and predictions
By SHAWN YOUNG
When it comes to numbers, Shawn Young knows what he's talking about. He's a former oddsmaker of European soccer (among other sports) and has his masters in mathematics.


The Gold Cup begins its quarterfinal round with a doubleheader at The Linc in Philadelphia Saturday. Canada will play Honduras and the USA will face Panama. The winners have a semifinal showdown in Chicago Thursday.

If a game is tied at the end of regulation, the match will proceed to extra time and, if necessary, a penalty shootout. Most books grade soccer bets on regulation time only, unless the line offered specifically says “Includes Extra Time/Penalties” or “To Advance”. Make sure you know what you’ve got.

Philly weather Saturday offers mid 70s temperatures with a chance of thundershowers.

HONDURAS (pick -120) vs. CANADA (2.5 goals under -150)

Recent results: Honduras won 2-1 away on September 6. Honduras won 3-1 at home on October 11.

Honduras played a bad second half against the USA but otherwise they looked pretty good in the group stage. Canada has played three tight games and has not looked out of place. This quarterfinal will be the toughest to call.

Honduras is the play here and we’re a little bit lucky to be able to lay only -120 given that Honduras have beaten Canada twice in the last year. Canada never gets results in Central America but the home choke in September is a significant tell. That Canadian team had Radzinski and de Rosario - this one doesn’t.

To “to advance” play on Honduras at the same price would be even stronger if you can find it because Canada’s goalkeeping is shaky. If all you see is Honduras on three-way-odds, you need +175 to have an edge. There’s no value in the total.

prediction: Honduras 2, Canada 0

USA (-1.5, flat) vs. PANAMA (2.5 goals over -125)

The USA struggled to convert chances in a 2-2 draw against Haiti last Saturday but was still the class of their preliminary group. Panama, the Central American champions, improved steadily game to game.

The recent game that could point us in the right direction here is Panama’s ill-tempered 1-1 draw with Mexico. Panama did not panic when they went 1-0 down and did not panic when they had to play the last 15 minutes with 10 men. Panama needed a draw against more skilled opposition and they fought to make sure they got it.

Asking the Panamanians for a draw here on American soil is perhaps too much, but we’re going to bet them anyway and ask them to keep it close. The +1.5 is a little too much and 1-0 or 2-1 to the USA are both very likely results. If your book is dealing Panama +1, you need +175 to bet and +200 to get excited. Panama +0.5 gets interesting around +300. Once again, we don’t see an edge in the total.

prediction: USA 2, Panama 1.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals Jul 18, 2009 7:10PM

PICK: Kansas City Royals

REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Kansas City w/Greinke vs Kazmir
Note:When the Royals send Zach Greinke to the mound against Scott Kazmir and the Rays in Game Two of their three game series they will do so knowing they have come up winners in 7 of Greinke's 11 home starts this season. Our history book reminds us that the home team in Greinke's team starts agasint Tampa Bay is 4-0 in his career. Meanwhile, Kazmir is 1-2 with a 7.07 ERA in his career team starts at Royals Stadium. Interestingly, Kazmir has not lasted more than 6 innings in any of his last 16 road starts. With Greinke in commanding KW form at home this season (13 walks-to-82 strikeouts), look for Kansas City to have its way here tonight.

1-unit play on Kansas City with Greinke vs Kazmir.