RX Forum Bettors Thread

[cloverleaf]

First CFB Coaches Poll (2018)

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State*
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Washington
7. Wisconsin
8. Miami
9. Penn State
10. Auburn
11. Notre Dame
12. Michigan State
13. Stanford
14. Michigan
15. USC
16. TCU
17. Virginia Tech
18. Mississippi State
19. Florida State
20. West Virginia
21. Texas
22. Boise State
23. UCF
24. LSU
25. Oklahoma State

Alabama received 61 of 65 first place votes.

 

[The Pooh]

This just shows you how stupid these polls are. They have Ohio State at #3. Enough said about that joke. They have Georgia at #4, knowing full well that Georgia will lose to Alabama in the Playoffs, and will lose at least one regular season game on the road. They have Wisconsin at #7, even though Wisky loses 8 starters from last years defense, and have already lost 2 starters from this year's defense. They have Penn State at #9, even though Penn State HOSTS Wisconsin. It goes on and on.

I believe that Penn State will end up being the Big 10 Champ, but will NOT make the playoff. I have Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and Washington in the playoffs as of now.

 

[cloverleaf]

Dabo Swinney (Clemson): "We have the most experienced returning team since I have been at Clemson,
with 61 letterman and 17 starters back. With that type of experience, I am most excited to see the com-
petition we will have at each position. So I am excited for the very beginning of practice in August."

Kirk Herbstreit (ESPN): "I'm most looking forward to see how dominate Alabama will be with Tua Tagovailoa
at quarterback. Bama has never had this kind of quarterback, and along with their typical outstanding play
on defense and special teams will make this Bama team maybe the best Nick Saban has had yet!"

James Franklin (Penn State) "We have a lot more questions this year than we had in the last two years, so
for me, it's to get to training camp to resolve some of those questions at defensive tackle and linebacker. I
feel pretty good about the other positions. We do have more questions after having 6 guys drafted and 15
guys in training camps."

Tom Luginbill (ESPN): "The Big Ten East division. It's going to be a bloodbath, a battle of attrition. I think
there could be three CFP contenders in Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. Add to the mix a pesky team
in East Lancing and I don't know how anyone comes out unscathed. It's the best division of power five con-
ferences."

Brian Kelly (Notre Dame): "The success of quarterback Brandon Wimbush and defensive coordinator Clark
Lea stand out to me. Brandon has made great strides in all facets of the game and will benefit greatly from
a second year in the offense. Clark is very clear in communication with our guys. He built an immediate
culture of peer accountability within the unit that helps build pride in how they, each player does his job."

Lane Kiffin (FAU): "I'm eager to see our guys with a whole different set of challenges now that they've put
themselves on the map. There were no expectations at all a year ago, so that's easier. It's a lot harder once
there are expectations, and other teams spend the offseason studying us so they will have a better feel for
going against us. That's why it's always harder to stay on top than to get on top."

Urban Meyer (Ohio State): 'What a frecken mess I've gotten myself into!'

 

[cloverleaf]

Today's Amazing Stat:

The Northern Illinois Huskies are 13-2 against the spread in Weekday Road games. They
will travel to Akron (Nov. 1) for a Thursday night game this season.

GL

 

[cloverleaf]

CFB Quick-hits:

Alabama: Coming off their fifth title in nine seasons, the Crimson Tide have more questions than
usual with an unsettled quarterback situation, major losses on defense and changes at offensive
and defensive coordinators. Still, this is a team full of talented players, and Nick Saban knows how
to navigate this type of challenge.

Auburn: The only team to beat Alabama last year, the Tigers start this season focused on repeating
as SEC West champs. Quarterback Jarrett Stidham looks to be more comfortable in his second turn
as the starter. The success of the season likely comes down to November trips to Georgia and Alabama.

Ohio State: On the field, the Buckeyes have enough talent to repeat as Big Ten champions with RB
J.K. Dobbins and DL Nick Bosa among their standouts. The big elephant in the room is the off field
situation with Urban Meyer.

Washington: The Huskies have quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin returning
to its offense as they bid to win the Pac-12 Conference and make the playoffs for the second time in
three seasons. The opener against Auburn (Atlanta) should tell a lot about whether they're a contender
or just the best team out west.

Clemson: If defense wins championships, then the Tigers are well positioned to make their fourth con-
secutive playoff appearance. Christian Wilkins heads a dominate defensive line. Quarterback Kelly Bryant
led Clemson to 12 wins in his first year as a starter, but his job status is tenuous with 5-star incoming
freshman Trevor Lawrence in the mix.

Oklahoma: Replacing Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield isn't the team's biggest concern. Kyler Murray
should be fine at quarterback with running back Rodney Anderson and a talented group of wide receivers as
support. The defense, last seen being torched by Georgia in the Rose Bowl, has to improve!

Wisconsin: Known more for being vanilla on offense and stingy on defense, the Badgers may flip the script
this season. Backed by one of the nations top offensive lines and running back Jonathan Taylor, they should
be explosive. Another unbeaten regular season is possible if the defense can overcome some key losses.

 

[cloverleaf]

Today's Amazing Stat:

The Navy Midshipmen are 13-0 against the spread after winning their previous game straight up
as Dogs then playing a team with a losing record.

GL

 

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SEC Team's Bowl Record During CFB Playoff Era:

Alabama (5-2, 2 NC)
Arkansas (2-1)
Auburn (1-3)
Florida (2-1)
Georgia (4-1)
Kentucky (0-2)
LSU (2-2)
Miss State (3-1)
Ole Miss (1-1)
Missouri (1-1)
South Carolina (2-1)
Tennessee (3-0)
Texas A&M (1-3)
Vanderbilt (0-1)
Total (27-20)

With the four team playoffs taking the spotlight, the other 400 bowl games have lost their luster. For
an example, I had no ideal Tennessee had won three bowl games during the playoff era and I pride
myself on keeping up with SEC football. (Too many damn bowl games...my view and I'm sticking with
it.)

 

[CoachCB]

Add on LSU. I think that bettors can make good money on selected LSU games. Fading LSU +1 @ Florida and LSU -3 vs Miss. State look like solid wagers to me. Alabama -14 and Georgia -10, both at LSU may be a few too many points to give. All of these lines are the current lines at the Westgate Superbook.

I'd hold off on betting Florida until you see who the QB is and how the offense overall performs. I think Franks wins the starting job....and the kid just doesn't have "it". I think he'll get benched and you'll eventually see Emory Jones (true freshman), or possibly Kyle Trask (2-star QB who has no business on an athletic scholarship at a P5 football program). The D will be stout/good (not great). If the OL improves and QB play improves UF could be an 8 win team that doesn't get blown out (close games). But until I see it w/ my own two eyes, I'm not putting a penny on UF football.

 

[cloverleaf]

I'd hold off on betting Florida until you see who the QB is and how the offense overall performs. I think Franks wins the starting job....and the kid just doesn't have "it". I think he'll get benched and you'll eventually see Emory Jones (true freshman), or possibly Kyle Trask (2-star QB who has no business on an athletic scholarship at a P5 football program). The D will be stout/good (not great). If the OL improves and QB play improves UF could be an 8 win team that doesn't get blown out (close games). But until I see it w/ my own two eyes, I'm not putting a penny on UF football.

Coach, I'm hearing from a couple of Gator loyalist that Mullen really likes Kyle Trask, the big sophomore from Texas.
He's 6-5, 240 and Mullen likes his willingness to run the ball. He also said Trask knows what he's being ask to do and
his willingness to do it. While Trask's short passes probably satisfy most Gator fans, it is the kind of play Mullen has
talked about repeatedly in evaluating the QB position. Mullen has stated that the QB who makes the "unspectacular"
plays most consistently will win the starting job. Just another QB battle in the SEC...…….

 

[CoachCB]

Coach, I'm hearing from a couple of Gator loyalist that Mullen really likes Kyle Trask, the big sophomore from Texas.
He's 6-5, 240 and Mullen likes his willingness to run the ball. He also said Trask knows what he's being ask to do and
his willingness to do it. While Trask's short passes probably satisfy most Gator fans, it is the kind of play Mullen has
talked about repeatedly in evaluating the QB position. Mullen has stated that the QB who makes the "unspectacular"
plays most consistently will win the starting job. Just another QB battle in the SEC...…….

He said Trask had the "best play" of the 1st practice. Trask looked like Trash in the spring. He's a 2-star QB that DID NOT START ON HIS HS FOOTBALL TEAM! Let that sink in. He hasn't started a football game since either junior HS or pop warner! If he does win the job he'll simply be a place holder for a lousy season ahead, waiting for Emory Jones (or commit) Jalon Jones to emerge. I think he could be serviceable, but I wouldn't expect much more than 150 ypg passing - and that's not going to get UF to more than 6 or 7 wins.

 

[The Pooh]

Dan Mullen knows that if Florida cannot get it done offensively this season, they are in for some lean years. They have 10 starters returning including all 5 OL starters from last season. They will lose at least two of those starters after this season. It sounds as if Florida and Mullen are going to look for some kind of ball control offense, highlighted by a solid ground attack. If it works, Florida can win 8 games. If it does not work, oh well...

 

[CoachCB]

Dan Mullen knows that if Florida cannot get it done offensively this season, they are in for some lean years. They have 10 starters returning including all 5 OL starters from last season. They will lose at least two of those starters after this season. It sounds as if Florida and Mullen are going to look for some kind of ball control offense, highlighted by a solid ground attack. If it works, Florida can win 8 games. If it does not work, oh well...

This is Florida's easiest schedule in my lifetime (nearly 50 years). The only games they'll be underdogs in (at this point) are Miss State, UGA and FSU.

The 10 returning starters on offense include 5 OL's who were horrible last year (led the NCAA in sacks allowed) and a QB that is borderline retarded...or uncoachable, at a minimum (Franks). The RB's are very good and w/ the 2 transfers being eligible at WR that group is all of a sudden well above average....but the problem is QB and OL, two unknowns.

There's talent on the team, but they went 4-7 last year. That doesn't just wash away w/ one off-season. This group was coached by one of the sorriest pieces of shit to ever walk a college football sideline, so I'm hoping Mullen and his MSU staff can turn it around quickly.

But since this is a betting forum, I'd advise to not bet on UF (or against) until you see what they look like in week 5 at Miss State.

 

[cloverleaf]

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys have won ten games for the third consecutive season, but
they haven't captured a Big 12 Conference championship since 2011, settling for second
place three times (2013, 2015, 2016). Oklahoma State capped a nice offensive season last
year averaging 45 points per game and 569 yards per game. They became the first team in
Big-12 history to field a 4,000 yard passer (Mason Rudolph), a 1,000 yard rusher (Justin Hill),
and two 1,000 yard receivers (James Washington and Marcell Ateman). Hill is the sole hold-
over from last season and the top returning rusher in the Big-12 after collecting 1,467 yards
and 15 touchdowns. Replacing more than 50 percent of their offensive production is a top
priority but seven starters return to help the cause. The offensive line returns players with just
47 career combined starts and will be one of the least experienced O-lines in the conference.
Patience may be required as a new quarterback and receivers get acclimated to their new jobs.
On defense, new coordinator (Duke) Jim Knowles will implement a 4-2-5 scheme with hopes
of improving a pass defense that ranked 117th in the nation last year. Nine starters return on
the defensive side of the ball including All-Big 12 defensive end Jordan Brailford. Reaching a
fourth straight 10 win season may prove difficult but the Cowboys should prove formidable as
the season progresses.

Missouri St.....South Alabama.....Boise St.....Texas Tech.....@Kansas.....Iowa State.....@ Kansas
State.....Texas.....@Baylor.....@Oklahoma.....West Virginia.....@TCU

Sidenote: Oklahoma State is 14-1-2 against the spread as Road Favorites of 1-11 points after
winning their last two games straight up.

 

[cloverleaf]

Today's Amazing Stat:

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are 19-3 against the spread before playing Texas Tech. Boise
State (Sept. 15th) fits the situation this season.

GL

 

[cloverleaf]

SEC Stadium Capacity 2018

102,733.....Texas A&M.....Kyle Field
102,455.....Tennessee.....Neyland Stadium
102,321.....LSU.....Tiger Stadium
101,821.....Alabama.....Bryant-Denny Stadium
.92,746.....Georgia.....Sanford Stadium
.88,548.....Florida.....Ben Hill Stadium
.87,451.....Auburn.....Jordan-Hare Stadium
.80,250.....South Carolina.....Williams-Bryce Stadium
.76,212.....Arkansas.....Razonback Stadium
.64,038.....Ole Miss.....Vaugh-Hemingway Stadium
.61,337.....Mississippi State.....Davis Wade Stadium
.61,000.....Kentucky.....Kroger Field
.61,000.....Missouri*…..Memorial Stadium
.45,550.....Vanderbilt.....Vanderbilt Stadium

*Missouri normally seats 71,168 but while under renovation, the number drops to 61,000.
*In less than a month, these stadiums will be rocking with CFB fans.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Opening Week:

Ole Miss/Texas Tech = High Scoring Game
LSU/Miami = Low Scoring Game
Auburn/Washington = Best Opening Game

CFB is just around the corner RXers.

 

[pathologist]

This is Florida's easiest schedule in my lifetime (nearly 50 years). The only games they'll be underdogs in (at this point) are Miss State, UGA and FSU.

The 10 returning starters on offense include 5 OL's who were horrible last year (led the NCAA in sacks allowed) and a QB that is borderline retarded...or uncoachable, at a minimum (Franks). The RB's are very good and w/ the 2 transfers being eligible at WR that group is all of a sudden well above average....but the problem is QB and OL, two unknowns.

There's talent on the team, but they went 4-7 last year. That doesn't just wash away w/ one off-season. This group was coached by one of the sorriest pieces of shit to ever walk a college football sideline, so I'm hoping Mullen and his MSU staff can turn it around quickly.

But since this is a betting forum, I'd advise to not bet on UF (or against) until you see what they look like in week 5 at Miss State.

I agree with the QB assessment, Franks is a pile of shit

 

[The Pooh]

Whoever starts for Florida will be subject to a very quick hook from Mullen. If Mullen gives up the ridiculous notion of bringing the Tebow era back, and sticks to a ball control style of offense, he can have success. This RB's are good, and the line can at least block for them. If he tries to get fancy and tries to score a lot of points to please the Alumni, both he and the Alumni will be very disappointed in 2018.

 

[cloverleaf]

Quick-Hits

Nick Saban: St. Nick is 12-0 against former assistants outscoring their teams 453-134
in the process. He will meet Jimbo Fisher on September 22 and Jeremy Pruitt, October
20th. Probably a rematch with Kirby Smart in SEC title game.

Urban Meyer: Ohio State announced Meyer's investigation would end in 14 days. The
president and trustees would then make a decision on his future with the school. I don't
believe they will fire Meyer.

Florida State: Longtime Seminoles defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews has joined
the staff as special assistant to the head coach.

Texas A&M: New strength coach Jerry Schmidt will earn $600,000 per year on a three
year contract. He has spent the previous 19 seasons with Oklahoma.

Washington: The Huskies are 22-5 over the past two seasons and have 17 starters back
this year including quarterback Jake Browning (9,104 career passing yards) and running
back Myles Gaskin (1,380 yards, 21 TDs 2017).

Northwestern: The Wildcats' schedule is brutal this season. They get both Michigan and
Michigan State from the East and also play Notre Dame and Duke in non-conference play.

Pittsburgh: Another touch schedule. In September along, the Panthers play Penn State,
Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Central Florida. Notre Dame is also on the slate. Road
trips to Virginia and Wake Forest are not guaranteed wins.

UCLA: The quarterback who best fits Chip Kelly's system is a true freshman who started
just one season in high school.

Oregon: The Ducks have a really good quarterback and a friendly schedule for new coach
Mario Cristobal (former Alabama assistant).

Kentucky: Depth in the trenches on both sides might come back to haunt the Wildcats this
season.

Michigan State: The Spartans get Ohio State and Michigan at home, don't have a non-conference
heavy, and no Wisconsin from the West Division. Nineteen starters back off a 10-3 season doesn't
hurt either.

Florida: Dan Mullen is the right man for the job in Gainesville, but an immediate turnaround isn't
likely in his first year.

Texas A&M: Some holes on defense...lost production from receivers corps...Clemson and Alabama
in the first 4 weeks...questions and lack of depth in the secondary...new punter. Other than that...

Missouri: Swapped offensive coordinator Josh Heupel (Central Florida HC) for former Tennessee head
coach Derek Dooley.

Ole Miss: The Rebels will be able to score points consistently, they also will give up a lot of points
consistently.

ACC: Twelve of the leagues fourteen teams are projected to reach at least six wins this season.

Louisville: New quarterback Jawon Pass is promising, but the Cardinals will have to improve
on defense to have a good season. Alabama will beat the dog out of them opening week.

Florida State: The Seminoles have the No. 1 schedule difficulty per Phil Steele and the No. 2
per ESPN.

Tennessee: The Vols have road games against Alabama, Auburn and Georgia. That's 0-3. To
get to seven wins, Tennessee would need to go 4-2 or better against West Virginia, Florida,
South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt. Ain't going to happen.

 

[cloverleaf]

Today's Amazing Stat:

The Western Michigan Broncos are 2-16 against the spread playing at home off back-to-back
losses.

GL

 

[cloverleaf]

Texas: A school once known for producing punishing running backs has only had one player
reach the 1000-yard mark in the past decade. The Longhorns' ground game has become anemic,
including last season when the team averaged a paltry 3.5 yards per carry. Daniel Young is the
top returning tailback with 363 rushing yards. Texas was forced to use eight different starting
lineups with the offensive line due to injuries and just plain ineffectiveness. The group was under-
whelming by all accounts, allowing 34 sacks. A trio of starters return to a lineup eager to prove
itself in 2018. Seven starters return on a defense that shaved more than ten points and eighty
yards per game off what the defense allowed from 2016-2017. The Horns were a more aggressive
unit under defensive coordinator Todd Orlando, going from 20 turnovers gained to 26 in one season.
Texas returns a Big 12 best 13 senior starters, making it one of the most experienced teams heading
into the upcoming season. The Longhorns face another difficult schedule, but improvements on the
offensive side of the ball could translate into a return to national prominence.

@Maryland.....Tulsa.....Southern Cal.....TCU.....@Kansas State.....Oklahoma.....Baylor.....@Oklahoma
State.....West Virginia.....@Texas Tech.....Iowa State.....Kansas

Sidenote: Texas head coach Tom Herman is 9-1 against the spread in his career as an underdog.