I believe if your going to play favorites that you HAVE TO play them on the runline. You still have to pick winners, but the RL adds value to the bet. I have seen a few very smart cappers say they like the runlines, but rarely see any of them actually play them all the time. I think it is the only way to play favorites and I’m going to prove it in this thread. I’m not saying just RL when the favorite is –150 or higher. It actually seems that favorites of –200 or more rarely cover the runline, but I haven’t backtracked this. I don’t like to play favorites of –200 in any kind of way (parlay, RL, or whatever). If there is no value in playing on the moneyline, than there is also no value in parlaying them. I’m saying to play the RL every time you bet on a favorite. I don’t think you should split the bet with half on the RL and half on the ML. If the RL is the best bet than that is were all the money should be placed. I don’t have the RL odds on all of the games this month so I will track it here for the next two weeks to show that it is the better play. If you risk the same amount on the RL that you would have on the ML the payoff is approximately twice as much every time both bets win. It may suck to lose a few bets by ½ a run, but how bad does it suck when a –160 chalk goes down in flames.
Here is a game I played last night that is a good example. I played Cincinnati. I risked $450 to win $300. If I had risked that on the RL, I could have won twice that much. By playing the RL you can also reduce the amount you risk to win the same amount if you so choose.
From June 1<sup>st</sup> through June 12<sup>th</sup> the favorites have won 102 of 184 games for 55.5% win rate (not great to be laying a lot of juice with that kind of win rate). This doesn’t matter because I’m not suggesting play every favorite on the RL, just whenever you do play a favorite don’t bet the ML. Of the 102 games that the favorite did win 78 also covered the –1 ½ RL for a 76.5% cover rate. I saw on another sight that favorites covered in the 70-75% range last year so this small sample of this year seems to be pretty close. Also, favorites in the –110 to –150 range covered just as much and sometimes more than favorites in the –160 to –200 or more range.
So, since I don’t have the RL odds for June 1<sup>st</sup> to June 12<sup>th</sup> I will estimate what I expect to see over the next few weeks as I track the real odds. If you would have bet to win $100 on just the 102 favorites that did actually win from the beginning of the month the results would be +$10,200 since they all obviously won. Now, lets say that all RL bets pay twice as much as a ML bet when you risk the same amount (you will see from today’s odds below that this is true). There were 78 RL winning bets that would have paid twice as much as the ML bets for $15,600. 24 RL bets would have lost on the RL that the ML actually won. Let’s just assume the average risk amount was $150 (probably high but we will see in the next few weeks). That means 24 RL bets would have lost $3600. That still leaves a Profit of $12,000 for the RL bets instead of the $10,200 from the ML bets.
Time to see what the next 2 weeks will prove. I will use RX opening line odds for ease of testing, but these are 20 cent lines, which are usually higher against the favorite so better odds can actually be had.
Here is a game I played last night that is a good example. I played Cincinnati. I risked $450 to win $300. If I had risked that on the RL, I could have won twice that much. By playing the RL you can also reduce the amount you risk to win the same amount if you so choose.
From June 1<sup>st</sup> through June 12<sup>th</sup> the favorites have won 102 of 184 games for 55.5% win rate (not great to be laying a lot of juice with that kind of win rate). This doesn’t matter because I’m not suggesting play every favorite on the RL, just whenever you do play a favorite don’t bet the ML. Of the 102 games that the favorite did win 78 also covered the –1 ½ RL for a 76.5% cover rate. I saw on another sight that favorites covered in the 70-75% range last year so this small sample of this year seems to be pretty close. Also, favorites in the –110 to –150 range covered just as much and sometimes more than favorites in the –160 to –200 or more range.
So, since I don’t have the RL odds for June 1<sup>st</sup> to June 12<sup>th</sup> I will estimate what I expect to see over the next few weeks as I track the real odds. If you would have bet to win $100 on just the 102 favorites that did actually win from the beginning of the month the results would be +$10,200 since they all obviously won. Now, lets say that all RL bets pay twice as much as a ML bet when you risk the same amount (you will see from today’s odds below that this is true). There were 78 RL winning bets that would have paid twice as much as the ML bets for $15,600. 24 RL bets would have lost on the RL that the ML actually won. Let’s just assume the average risk amount was $150 (probably high but we will see in the next few weeks). That means 24 RL bets would have lost $3600. That still leaves a Profit of $12,000 for the RL bets instead of the $10,200 from the ML bets.
Time to see what the next 2 weeks will prove. I will use RX opening line odds for ease of testing, but these are 20 cent lines, which are usually higher against the favorite so better odds can actually be had.