Runline Versus Moneyline. The Best Bet?

[ViewtheFuture]

Thanks Occam. I wish I could see the actual money results. Just looking at the percentages it shows Road favorites cover more often and also lose outright more often so they should certainly be considered for a RL bet.

Over the 20,000 games studied by the site provided by OccamsRazor:
Home Favorites covered the RL in 68% of the games that they won.
Road Favorites covered the RL in 79% of the games that they won.

 

[FairWarning]

Thanks Occam. I wish I could see the actual money results. Just looking at the percentages it shows Road favorites cover more often and also lose outright more often so they should certainly be considered for a RL bet.

Over the 20,000 games studied by the site provided by OccamsRazor:
Home Favorites covered the RL in 68% of the games that they won.
Road Favorites covered the RL in 79% of the games that they won.

The road favorites RL makes sense since they get to bat 9 innings. You win a little less $$ since the price is adjusted, but I feel is worth it.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

I agree with taking RL, but I only take RL with teams that score on a consistent basis. I have no problem taking a Red Sox, Cubs, or Phillies RL, but rarely do it with the Royals, Nationals, etc.

Parlays and RL have kept me in the profit column this year so far.

 

[ViewtheFuture]

June 15th Odds

6/15/08​

Philadelphia –145 (Risk 145 to win 100)
RL +115 (Risk 145 to win 165)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 87 to win 100)
Cleveland –165 (Risk 165 to Win 100)
RL +130 (Risk 165 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 77 to win 100)
Toronto –120 (Risk 120 to win 100)
RL +175 (Risk 120 to win 210)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 57 to win 100)
NY Mets –160 (Maine/Millwood) (Risk 160 to win 100)
RL +135 (Risk 160 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 74 to win 100)
NY Mets –155 (Martinez/Gabbard) (Risk 155 to win 100)
RL +140 (Risk 155 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 71 to win 100)
Boston –165 (Risk 165 to win 100)
RL –105 (Risk 165 to win 160)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 105 to win 100)
Baltimore –135 (Risk 135 to win 100)
RL +160 (Risk 135 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 63 to win 100)
Tampa Bay –155 (Risk 155 to win 100)
RL +140 (Risk 155 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 71 to win 100)
Chicago WhiteSox –155 (Risk 155 to win 100)
RL +135 (Risk 155 to win 210)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 74 to win 100)
Milwaukee –140 (Risk 140 to win 100)
RL +155 (Risk 140 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 65 to win 100)
NY Yankees –135 (Risk 135 to win 100)
RL +125 (Risk 135 to win 170)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 80 to win 100)
Oakland –120 (Risk 120 to win 100)
RL +140 (Risk 120 to win 170)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 71 to win 100)
Arizona –145 (Risk 145 to win 100)
RL +150 (Risk 145 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 67 to win 100)
Seattle –135 (Risk 135 to win 100)
RL +160 (Risk 135 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 63 to win 100)
LA Angels –135 (Risk 135 to win 100)
RL +160 (Risk 135 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 63 to win 100)

 

[ViewtheFuture]

So far after all of today's games except Angels/Braves, the RL shows an ROI of 1.64%. The RL Alternate risk to win (1 Unit) shows and ROI of 2.59%. The ML bets show an ROI of -4.2%. The RL shows to be a better bet through the first few days, but those numbers could be scewed due to the fact that every favorite that won today also covered the RL.

 

[ViewtheFuture]

June 16th Odds

6/16/08​

Colorado –110 (Risk 110 to win 100)
RL +180 (Risk 110 to win 200)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 56 to win 100)
Philadelphia –170 (Risk 170 to win 100)
RL +125 (Risk 170 to win 215)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 80 to win 100)
LA Angels –150 (Risk 150 to win 100)
RL +145 (Risk 150 to win 220)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 69 to win 100)
Florida –115 (Risk 115 to win 100)
RL +140 (Risk 115 to win 160)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 71 to win 100)
San Francisco –115 (Risk 115 to win 100)
RL +180 (Risk 115 to win 205)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 56 to win 100)

 

[ViewtheFuture]

Missed Detroit Tigers game on 6/15/08

Updated records with the Angels covering the RL and noticed I missed the Detroit game today in which they did not cover, but did win on the moneyline.

Detroit –120 (Risk 120 to win 100)
RL +175 (Risk 120 to win 210)
RL Alternate Risk (Risk 57 to win 100)

Updated ROI's after 4 Days.
ML ROI = -0.12%
RL ROI = 4.38%
RL Alternate Risk = 5.06%

 

[ViewtheFuture]

Results after 5 days

After 5 days the RL continues to be the best bet, but favorites that have won have also covered the RL at about 2-3% higher than historical averages. Still need more games, but I'm already sold and only play RL's no matter if it is a -120 favorite or a -160 favorite due to the fact that I saw on another sight in all of last year games that large favorites did not cover at a higher rate than small favorites. Therefore I want to also play the small favorites on the RL to get the larger return.

Favorites have won 38 of 63 games for 60%.

Favorites have covered the RL in 29 of 38 games for 76%.

If you risked X to win $100 on the ML you would have risked $9000 to win $9030 for a profit of $30 and a Return on Investment of 0.33%.

If you risked the same X on the RL you would have risked $9000 to win $9683.90 for a profit of $683.90 and a Return on Investment of 7.6%.

If you risked $100 on the RL to win whatever the plus odds provide, you would have risked $6305 to win $7080 for a profit of $775 and a Return on Investment of 12.29%.

I don't know why risking a smaller amount on the RL produced a better ROI. I have re-checked my math 3 times so I know the numbers are correct, so I can only assume this is due to the fact that when the favorites lose there is not such a large risk.

 

[ViewtheFuture]

6/17/08 Odds

Cincinnati -115
RL +175
Baltimore -125
RL +160
NY Yankees -165
RL +125
Philadelphia -120
RL +165
Tampa Bay -140
RL +155
Atlanta -115
RL +140
Milwaukee -120
RL +170
Minnesota -120
RL +170
Chicago WhiteSox -170
RL +120
St. Louis -145
RL +145
Colorado -120
RL +165
Arizona -140
RL +155
LA Angels -125
RL +175
Seattle -145
RL +150
Detroit -115
RL +145

 

[ViewtheFuture]

Sorry I haven't updated the odds the last few days if anyone is interested in this study. I pull the odds from RX opening odds and can post them for the last few days if anyone wants them to check the results themselves.

The RL is still showing the greatest return on investment.

After 8 Days:
Favorites have won 64 of 104 games (62%)
Favorites have covered the RL in 47 of 64 wins (73%)

ML bets to win $100 on every bet had a risk of $14,570 and a return of $15,140 for a profit of $570 and an ROI of 3.91%.

RL bets risking the same amount as the ML bets had a risk of $14,570 and a return of $15,753.15 for a profit of $1,183.15 and an ROI of 8.12%.

Rl bets risking $100 on every game had a risk of $10,415 and a return of $11,560 for a profit of $1145 and an ROI of 10.99%.


As you can see from the data so far, the -1 1/2 RL is the best bet when betting favorites. Yes, you may have a few more loses, but those loses will be for less money and the wins will be for more money.

After looking back at the results I can also explain why the RL risking the same amount on every bet has the highest ROI. By risking different amounts on ML bets to win $100 you are basically making a larger investment on the really heavy favorites. I think everyone would agree this isn't a good strategy. One could say that instead of risking X to win $100 or whatever unit amount that we should actually risk 1 unit to win whatever so that when playing ML bets that we do not invest a higher % of our bankroll on heavy favorites. You should also notice the the profit is almost the same for both RL risk amounts. Notice the first RL calculation is using the same risk amount as it would have taken to win $100 if the bet was placed on the ML. So if the favorite was -160, it would have taken $160 to win $100 on the ML. Risking that same larger amount didn't produce a higher ROI because we were risking a larger amount on the heavy favorites that will break you when they take a few days off as was seen last weekend.

If anyone has any questions or would like to discuss their opinions, please feel free to do so.