Randizzle14's Bowl Game Discussion Thread.

[SonnyCrockett]

there or where?

 

[MMfan]

There.

Here it is if you want to cut an paste before they take it again

12/20
5* Colorado St +3 (-110) W
2* Memphis/South Florida under 56.5 (-105) W
1* Navy +1.5 1st half (-105) W
1* Navy/Wake Forest under 44 (-105) L

12/21
0.5* Southern Miss +4.5 (-110) W

12/23
2* TCU/Boise St under 46 (-105) W

12/24
3* Notre Dame +1.5 (-105) W

12/26
2* Florida Atlantic +7 (-105) W

12/27
5* Wisconsin/Florida St over 52.5 (-105) W
2* West Virginia pk (-105) W
0.5* California/Miami Fla under 49.5 (+102) W

12/28
1.5* Louisiana Tech pk (-106) W

12/29
0.5* Northwestern +13 (-110)

12/30
2* Nevada -1 (-110)

12/31
4* Houston -2.5 (-110)
4* Minnesota +10.5 (-108)
1* LSU +4 (-105)

1/1
5* Clemson/Nebraska over 55 (-110)
4* Cincinnati -1 (-110)
3* South Carolina +3.5 (-110)
2* USC -10 (-108)
0.5* Michigan St/Georgia under 54 (-101)

1/2
1* Kentucky +1.5 (-105)
1* Alabama -10 (-105)
0.5* Texas Tech -5 (-105)

1/8
3* Oklahoma/Florida under 72 (-105)

 

[Geek]

Dizz

Don't force them bro. Most can probably tell they aren't your top plays as they've mostly been 1 or 2 unit plays as compared to the 3,4,5 unit plays. No need to explain yourself, we'll know when it's a smaller play versus one you like by the units you put on it.

GL

 

[zeropointzero]

Was cashing Rut/ NC st middles and Mizzou at 12.5 was avaialble at Red Rock in LV 30 min prior to kickoff. Ended up at 14 to match the action being taken around town. His 12.5 is very much possible and didn't warrant the backlash.

People need to relax. Jealousy is not a good look and the guys coming into anybody's thread just to bash are being petty.

I passed on the 2 plays today because I thought O'Brien was too smart for Schiano and both NW and Mizzou are bet against teams. Neither game had the usual Randy analysis that I like seeing, so there was nothing to sway me from staying on sidelines.

Best of luck in rest of season Randy and everyone else.

 

[Geek]

There.

Here it is if you want to cut an paste before they take it again

12/20
5* Colorado St +3 (-110) W
2* Memphis/South Florida under 56.5 (-105) W
1* Navy +1.5 1st half (-105) W
1* Navy/Wake Forest under 44 (-105) L

12/21
0.5* Southern Miss +4.5 (-110) W

12/23
2* TCU/Boise St under 46 (-105) W

12/24
3* Notre Dame +1.5 (-105) W

12/26
2* Florida Atlantic +7 (-105) W

12/27
5* Wisconsin/Florida St over 52.5 (-105) W
2* West Virginia pk (-105) W
0.5* California/Miami Fla under 49.5 (+102) W

12/28
1.5* Louisiana Tech pk (-106) W

12/29
0.5* Northwestern +13 (-110)

12/30
2* Nevada -1 (-110)

12/31
4* Houston -2.5 (-110)
4* Minnesota +10.5 (-108)
1* LSU +4 (-105)

1/1
5* Clemson/Nebraska over 55 (-110)
4* Cincinnati -1 (-110)
3* South Carolina +3.5 (-110)
2* USC -10 (-108)
0.5* Michigan St/Georgia under 54 (-101)

1/2
1* Kentucky +1.5 (-105)
1* Alabama -10 (-105)
0.5* Texas Tech -5 (-105)

1/8
3* Oklahoma/Florida under 72 (-105)

Nice run, who's this?

 

[zeropointzero]

There.

Here it is if you want to cut an paste before they take it again

12/20
5* Colorado St +3 (-110) W
2* Memphis/South Florida under 56.5 (-105) W
1* Navy +1.5 1st half (-105) W
1* Navy/Wake Forest under 44 (-105) L

12/21
0.5* Southern Miss +4.5 (-110) W

12/23
2* TCU/Boise St under 46 (-105) W

12/24
3* Notre Dame +1.5 (-105) W

12/26
2* Florida Atlantic +7 (-105) W

12/27
5* Wisconsin/Florida St over 52.5 (-105) W
2* West Virginia pk (-105) W
0.5* California/Miami Fla under 49.5 (+102) W

12/28
1.5* Louisiana Tech pk (-106) W

12/29
0.5* Northwestern +13 (-110)

12/30
2* Nevada -1 (-110)

12/31
4* Houston -2.5 (-110)
4* Minnesota +10.5 (-108)
1* LSU +4 (-105)

1/1
5* Clemson/Nebraska over 55 (-110)
4* Cincinnati -1 (-110)
3* South Carolina +3.5 (-110)
2* USC -10 (-108)
0.5* Michigan St/Georgia under 54 (-101)

1/2
1* Kentucky +1.5 (-105)
1* Alabama -10 (-105)
0.5* Texas Tech -5 (-105)

1/8
3* Oklahoma/Florida under 72 (-105)

Is this from who I think? Can't post there because one of their pets owes me some cash. I had the audacity to pm him about payment and poof can no longer view forums. Oh well.

 

[Bdub24]

Well Randizzle, it looks like you're 3-4 this bowl season. I've personally played your Navy, Rutgers, FSU, and Mizzou picks. I liked all of these on my own and your picks just gave me confidence so I take full responsibility. I know you've gone 75% or whatever this year and that's better than me, but keep in mind I'm just trying to help:

I think you should look at the motivation factor a little differently in some of these lower bowl games. The big favorites are often disappointed to be in these no-name games while teams like Northwestern and NC State are coming in all jacked up ready to win their first bowl game in 50+ years. It was really evident in tonight's game. Missouri just did not look ready to play and Northwestern was fired up from whistle to whistle.

Very good points. Can't ever question Dizzle though. He won me so much during the regular season, Im not gonna sweat a bad day or 2.

In regards to the comments above, especially in the smaller games, I have found that over the years, if the line is 3 or less, take the favorite. If it is more than 3, take the Dog. More times than not, you will come out ahead. The results are not always as good with the bigger games, but normally produces more wins than loses regardless.

So far that trend is 10-4 this year (depending on where you get the lines)

Based on this Nevada, Rice, and OK St. would be the plays tomorrow. Hope to see Dizzle on some of these too.

 

[ThreeUnits]

Navy +3 (2 Units)(loss)
S. Florida -11 (2 Units) (WINNER)
Boise St. +3.5 (1 Unit) (WINNER)
Florida St. -5.5 (2 Units) (WINNER)
California -9.5 (2 Units) (loss)
Rutgers -6.5 (1 Unit)(loss)
Missouri -12.5 (2 Units) (loss)

3-4-0 -2.7 Units

No excuses. Just capped the games wrong today. Apparently I am forcing plays, and need to get back to basics and be more selective. The reason I thrive in Regular Season, is because I have the ability to select 5 to 7 games of 40+ games a week. I have 5-6 games I really like, and only 1 of them has been played. All the rest (including the games I won) I may have been forcing. I understand that by doing this I'm only hurting anyone following as opposed to helping which is my goal.

Good Luck to all of you guys in your selections throughout the bowl season. I will look at these games and learn from mistakes.

Randy

Remember that some of us are winning $ with your picks on ML and teaser wagers, so the Californiaq, Rutgers and Missouri bets weren't all that bad. Thanks Randy

 

[IrishTim]

BUT, it Rutgers didn't miss the extra point OR the FG that would have been a winner! Right?

OR if the NC State QB didn't get hurt and sit out the entire second half, Rutgers probably would have lost the game. I'm sure Randizzle didn't see that coming either.

 

[IrishTim]

Very good points. Can't ever question Dizzle though. He won me so much during the regular season, Im not gonna sweat a bad day or 2.

Neither am I, but I was just trying to give him something else to think about and perhaps incorporate into his handicapping. Good luck with the rest of the bowls, Randizz. Hope to see you pick up with college basketball and NBA once NCAA football is over.

In regards to the comments above, especially in the smaller games, I have found that over the years, if the line is 3 or less, take the favorite. If it is more than 3, take the Dog. More times than not, you will come out ahead. The results are not always as good with the bigger games, but normally produces more wins than loses regardless.

So far that trend is 10-4 this year (depending on where you get the lines)

Based on this Nevada, Rice, and OK St. would be the plays tomorrow. Hope to see Dizzle on some of these too.

Interesting theory. I'll keep it in mind.

 

[bookiebanger]

How do you classify games as major games.
BCS games? Games on New Years and after?

 

[lawnboy19]

Here it is if you want to cut an paste before they take it again

12/20
5* Colorado St +3 (-110) W
2* Memphis/South Florida under 56.5 (-105) W
1* Navy +1.5 1st half (-105) W
1* Navy/Wake Forest under 44 (-105) L

12/21
0.5* Southern Miss +4.5 (-110) W

12/23
2* TCU/Boise St under 46 (-105) W

12/24
3* Notre Dame +1.5 (-105) W

12/26
2* Florida Atlantic +7 (-105) W

12/27
5* Wisconsin/Florida St over 52.5 (-105) W
2* West Virginia pk (-105) W
0.5* California/Miami Fla under 49.5 (+102) W

12/28
1.5* Louisiana Tech pk (-106) W

12/29
0.5* Northwestern +13 (-110)

12/30
2* Nevada -1 (-110)

12/31
4* Houston -2.5 (-110)
4* Minnesota +10.5 (-108)
1* LSU +4 (-105)

1/1
5* Clemson/Nebraska over 55 (-110)
4* Cincinnati -1 (-110)
3* South Carolina +3.5 (-110)
2* USC -10 (-108)
0.5* Michigan St/Georgia under 54 (-101)

1/2
1* Kentucky +1.5 (-105)
1* Alabama -10 (-105)
0.5* Texas Tech -5 (-105)

1/8
3* Oklahoma/Florida under 72 (-105)

am i allowed to ask who's picks these are

 

[IrishTim]

How do you classify games as major games.
BCS games? Games on New Years and after?

You're right, there's no scientific method of classifying which games might be "major" games. But you can gather some information if you're willing to look hard enough. For instance, I'm sure you could gather from Missouri's websites, football fanblogs/forums, etc. that they were disappointed to be playing the the Alamo bowl considering their high hopes for the season, etc. While if you went to Northwestern's side, you'd see articles on the importance of this game for the football programs, what it would mean to the school in terms of credibility, how excited these players are to be in a bowl for the first time, and the like.

I would say that the major games are the ones where both teams are ranked fairly highly, excited to be there, and that it is a game with a fair amount of prestige.

For instance, I know USC and Penn State might be "disappointed" that they aren't playing for a national championship but they are still in the fucking Rose Bowl. This a game that both teams want to win badly. I don't think you'll find a motivational edge here. But tonight's game with Missouri clearly showed that the attitude a team brings to the game, especially after weeks of not playing, is a significant factor to consider in your handicapping of bowl games. Obviously motivation isn't everything -- you still need coaching, talent, execution, and some luck.

I think tomorrow night, Nevada has this motivational edge. You look at Maryland -- they beat #23 ranked (at the time) California, #20 Clemson, shut out #21 Wake Forest 26 to 0, and pulled out a tough win against#16 North Carolina. They beat 4 ranked teams, one on the road. They have to be thinking better than the Humanitarian Bowl. Then at home and senior night, they get embarrassed by Florida St. 37-3, which may have carried over to their loss to BC the last week of the season. It would be hard after such crashing disappointment for a lot of these Maryland players to get up for 3 weeks of practice to play in the Humanitarian Bowl. Most of them probably just want the season to end and move on. Instead they have to fly out to Idaho to face one of the top rushing attacks in the country.

In my estimation, motivation matters more for defense--which revolves around tackling--and I don't think Maryland's going to be inspired to fly around and stop Nevada's outstanding rushing game.

EDIT: Sorry Randizzle if it comes across as me trying to pass off my picks in your thread. I was trying to make a larger point about motivation in these bowl games and got a little carried out.

 

[doogieboy]

GL Dizz I was just researching this game and leaning hard to Nev. i had not really considered it before tonight.(I'm at work and bored)
GL tomorrow!!

 

[dirk777]

So funny that a few dogs start to cover and panic sets in. Dizzle's strategy hasn't changed. Pick 99% favorites and hope they cover. It's a shame FLA can't play and cover every day.

 

[howar054]

but his official play was at -6.5, i am still behind him but that is not true official plays are at the exact points given on the play

 

[Acasol]

wilheim;

attention all posters
notice to all visitors to this thread.
this thread is only for randizzle14 to post his plays in. Please post any remarks, questions or comments in the discussion thread right beside this thread.


http://64.40.117.4/showthread.php?t=631433


repeat violaters will be banned from this particular forum.


Thank you, wilheim.

 

[SonnyCrockett]

I don't get this? at most of the books where you can buy of points money line is same as -1.5 spread... so I took ml -130 rather than -1.5 -133 or -1 -140... is this usual?

GL guys!

 

[across777]

I dont agree. I feel the closing line is the most accurate and fair way to guage a win/loss against. Whats the sense of looking at a line when it first comes out. At times they change drastically. Again thats why I always wait till 5 to 10 minutes prior to the start of the game to make my play in any sport.

You're way off here. The standard on this (and EVERY other forum) is to use the posted line for record keeping. That only makes sense. Sometimes a line moves in your favor, sometimes not in your favor. Getting the right line is a big part of sports betting.

Randizzle posted -6.5, and 90% of his followers got that line or -7. That's great that you got -6, but why would you think it is appropriate for Randizzle to score Rutgers as a win when he lost his personal bet, and 90% of his followers did too? Listen, you're not going to win this discussion....like I said, this is a widely accepted practice for record keeping and its not going to change.

On a side note, your practice of always waiting until the last minute to make a bet is going to work against you just as much as in your favor, if not more. If you are following randizzle's picks, he plays a lot of favorites, and more often than not the line moves against a favorite.

 

[Geek]

I dont agree. I feel the closing line is the most accurate and fair way to guage a win/loss against. Whats the sense of looking at a line when it first comes out. At times they change drastically. Again thats why I always wait till 5 to 10 minutes prior to the start of the game to make my play in any sport.

Because THATS when you put in your bet and winning your bet is all that matters. Not records. If you can follow along with the same line, great, if not oh well, all your doing is following along.

All that matters is that IF YOU CASH your ticket.


:money8: