lol no, you're not dense. Definitely want to win Tenn tonight. You'll definitely see swings short-term. Losing a series is never a good thing, but it happens. To combat series losses, you should have the bankroll 4 times the amount of a series (1.1+2.2+...+13.3) x 4 or about 145 units. Any bet amount works for this system (a, 2a, 4a, 6a, 8a, 12a).
Losing tonight would make me 1-5 for the series, -23.7 units. Win tonight puts me at 2-4 for the last 6 games (only 33.3%) but +3.4 units.
Seems to me you're just adding variance on top of variance... not only do you have to pick winners at a good rate, you have to hope that it's the bigger plays that come in. If you don't have any more confidence in the 8 or 12 unit bet than the 1 or 2 unit bet, how do you know this won't happen routinely?
I'm not trying to bust your balls here, I promise. Just trying to understand this.
I'm not trying to bust your balls here, I promise. Just trying to understand this.
Let me try to show it like this. Out of 22 possible outcomes for a 6-game series, 1-5 and 0-6 streaks make up less than 33% of the possible outcomes. And as a regular bettor that does his homework on games, 0-6 losing streaks come along much less regularly than 1 in every 3 Series. Also,
such droughts are often followed up by winning streaks that will wipe out these losses and, even if they don’t, I have those 3 betting blocks I mentioned earlier held in reserve for exactly that reason.
Take a look at all of the possible winning outcomes for the 6-game series:
Series Record/My Net profit/Net profit if I made all $11 bets
(2-0)
W-W +30 + 20
(2-1)
W-L-W +28 +9
L-W-W +49 +9
(2-2)
W-L-L-W +4 -2
L-W-L-W +25 -2
L-L-W-W +67 -2
(2-3)
W-L-L-L-W -42 -13
L-W-L-L-W -13 -13
L-L-W-L-W +21 -13
L-L-L-W-W +63 -13
(2-4)
W-L-L-L-L-W -90 -24
L-W-L-L-L-W -69 -24
L-L-W-L-L-W -27 -24
L-L-L-W-L-W +15 -24
L-L-L-L-W-W +57 -24
As you see, there are only 15 possible winning series outcomes, and 10 of them (or 67%) make you money, as shown above. Also, in 11 of the 15 scenarios (or 73%), you’re as good or better off betting with my system than with straight $11 bets. Of the 12 unfortunate scenarios in which you post a .500 or losing record with 2 wins in my system, 7 of them (or 58%) still earn you profits. All 3 scenarios in which you achieve 2 wins and 2 losses net you a profit. Half of the scenarios in which you win 2 games and lose 3 still build on your Bankroll. 2 of the 5 scenarios in which you win 2 and lose 4 wagers
earn you as much as $57 in profit -- or as much as an $81 increase over traditional betting -- for picking just 33% winners.
*Made a mistake earlier, if Tenn covers I'm only +1.5 units for this series, not 3.4 as I stated earlier.
Hope this helps you understand. Let me know if you have more questions about it.
Quick breakdown after last 20 plays (7-13-0; -3.4 units; 35%)
Totals: 1-3 (0-2 overs, 1-1 unders)
Home Favorites: 1-3
Home Dogs: 1-3
Road Favorites: 0-2
Road Dogs: 4-2
YTD: 22-18-0 55% (+6.1 units)
Season breakdown
Totals: 5-3 (1-2 overs, 4-1 unders)
Home Favorites: 6-4
Home Dogs: 2-5
Road Favorites: 2-2
Road Dogs: 7-4
Last 20 games have been rough, thankfully weathering the storm only down 3.4 units while going 7-13.
Totals: 1-3 (0-2 overs, 1-1 unders)
Home Favorites: 1-3
Home Dogs: 1-3
Road Favorites: 0-2
Road Dogs: 4-2
YTD: 22-18-0 55% (+6.1 units)
Season breakdown
Totals: 5-3 (1-2 overs, 4-1 unders)
Home Favorites: 6-4
Home Dogs: 2-5
Road Favorites: 2-2
Road Dogs: 7-4
Last 20 games have been rough, thankfully weathering the storm only down 3.4 units while going 7-13.
