<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SportSavant:
thank you for the excellent feedback drunk...I am skeptical however...I do feel that the public has more sway even in non TV games than the sharp does...They may not be betting large amounts but more often than not they are betting on the same side...How about any given sunday in the NFL? are you suggesting that public betting doesnt move the line?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
My contention would be that, even if the public were able to lay significant enough action to move the line, it would present even more value to the sharps who would then up their bets and drive the line back to where it belongs. I think the key point is: squares are not paying attention to the number as much as the sharps. Give a square an extra half point, and he may like the play a little more, but he is not going to bet that much more money than he normally would - probably will bet exactly the same amount as he would have anyway.
Your average sharp, however, will tee off when a line is out of whack. And the sharps have the bankroll to support large action.
Of course, just my opinion...
thank you for the excellent feedback drunk...I am skeptical however...I do feel that the public has more sway even in non TV games than the sharp does...They may not be betting large amounts but more often than not they are betting on the same side...How about any given sunday in the NFL? are you suggesting that public betting doesnt move the line?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
My contention would be that, even if the public were able to lay significant enough action to move the line, it would present even more value to the sharps who would then up their bets and drive the line back to where it belongs. I think the key point is: squares are not paying attention to the number as much as the sharps. Give a square an extra half point, and he may like the play a little more, but he is not going to bet that much more money than he normally would - probably will bet exactly the same amount as he would have anyway.
Your average sharp, however, will tee off when a line is out of whack. And the sharps have the bankroll to support large action.
Of course, just my opinion...
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> regarding the "which line is the most accurate line" arguement, i'd have to agree with drunkguy <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
maybe it would be an interesting thread/poll to see what the actual concensus is at the rx?
Me personally If I was in your shoes I would be going for the middles...the edge of 1.5 to 2 points isn't enough of an edge for me to bet blindly into a game...the asssumption that the final # is the most accurate one is a dangerous one IMO...If you can bet one side online at reduced juice you are laughing...only need to hit one out of 20 to make money...think of how many games land so close to the number!!!
You may still have an advantage with your theory but there is no guarantee of hitting 60%...I would argue however that if you are getting at least a 2 point middle with one side at reduced juice your prospects of making coin in the long run are better this way...
I used to have a betting system in college hoops where the line can move significantly, especially on totals....I would watch the line movement, wait till the last minute...& if there were no injuries or suspensions that cauzed the movement I would bet against the line movement at the last second...
I didnt get rich of this system but I certainly didn't lose either...the linesmaker uses power ratings etc & then tries to use his own intuition as to what will make people bet evenly on both sides...
Perhaps the best advice is to bet into the bad line & then cover 50% at reduced juice...to me it is all about minimizing your exposure...To me betting into his 'bad' lines you could still go on a bad losing streak...middling this situation almost guarantees a profit over the long haul...IMHO.
Of course it also depends on what 300$ means to you...if you normally average much higher on a bet then maybe it doesnt mean much....
A final suggestion I would give is to track everything in a notebook...if you choose to bet only the weak side you should at least write down what you could have attempted with a middle....& check your records after a few months....
[This message was edited by SportSavant on February 09, 2004 at 12:50 PM.]
[This message was edited by SportSavant on February 09, 2004 at 12:51 PM.]
[This message was edited by SportSavant on February 09, 2004 at 12:54 PM.]
maybe it would be an interesting thread/poll to see what the actual concensus is at the rx?
Me personally If I was in your shoes I would be going for the middles...the edge of 1.5 to 2 points isn't enough of an edge for me to bet blindly into a game...the asssumption that the final # is the most accurate one is a dangerous one IMO...If you can bet one side online at reduced juice you are laughing...only need to hit one out of 20 to make money...think of how many games land so close to the number!!!
You may still have an advantage with your theory but there is no guarantee of hitting 60%...I would argue however that if you are getting at least a 2 point middle with one side at reduced juice your prospects of making coin in the long run are better this way...
I used to have a betting system in college hoops where the line can move significantly, especially on totals....I would watch the line movement, wait till the last minute...& if there were no injuries or suspensions that cauzed the movement I would bet against the line movement at the last second...
I didnt get rich of this system but I certainly didn't lose either...the linesmaker uses power ratings etc & then tries to use his own intuition as to what will make people bet evenly on both sides...
Perhaps the best advice is to bet into the bad line & then cover 50% at reduced juice...to me it is all about minimizing your exposure...To me betting into his 'bad' lines you could still go on a bad losing streak...middling this situation almost guarantees a profit over the long haul...IMHO.
Of course it also depends on what 300$ means to you...if you normally average much higher on a bet then maybe it doesnt mean much....
A final suggestion I would give is to track everything in a notebook...if you choose to bet only the weak side you should at least write down what you could have attempted with a middle....& check your records after a few months....
[This message was edited by SportSavant on February 09, 2004 at 12:50 PM.]
[This message was edited by SportSavant on February 09, 2004 at 12:51 PM.]
[This message was edited by SportSavant on February 09, 2004 at 12:54 PM.]
Pancho: I actually thought carefully about my answer for .005633 seconds before posting my reply, so your facetious comment is obviously incorrect in its assumption that my reply would HAVE to recommend middling. Phhhhbbbttt!!!
Blue: It's the reverse for me - middling removes a LOT of stress and when you hit one it usually makes up for all the recent losses, depending on what you paid for them, etc. When I watch games, I do so for enjoyment, and I only follow a game I wouldn't watch if it has a change of hitting the middle (or a side). THAT'S when you get your dose of stress/excitement, and your bankroll fluctuations are a lot less dramatic than betting SU. But to each his own - good luck
Blue: It's the reverse for me - middling removes a LOT of stress and when you hit one it usually makes up for all the recent losses, depending on what you paid for them, etc. When I watch games, I do so for enjoyment, and I only follow a game I wouldn't watch if it has a change of hitting the middle (or a side). THAT'S when you get your dose of stress/excitement, and your bankroll fluctuations are a lot less dramatic than betting SU. But to each his own - good luck
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> i understand that middling is the safest thing to do and may end up being more profitable. but, dammit, it just aint as much fun.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
having fun USUALLY costs you money: ie vacation, going out to dinner, the movies, new clothes, having sex with hookers etc etc....
being disciplined & working USUALLY makes you money...researching invesments, working at the office, speninding long hours on an invention or at the office etc.....
At the end of the day this comes to the core of a problem which 90% of gamblers have (MYSELF INCLUDED), discipline, "The need for action" overwhelmes us. I think it is only when you can treat your gambling completely as a business (& still have fun) that you will be fully succesfill...I hope to get there some day.
After all, a Playboy photogrepher has fun but I am sure he also worked hard to get there. & must continue to work hard in his day to day life.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
having fun USUALLY costs you money: ie vacation, going out to dinner, the movies, new clothes, having sex with hookers etc etc....
being disciplined & working USUALLY makes you money...researching invesments, working at the office, speninding long hours on an invention or at the office etc.....
At the end of the day this comes to the core of a problem which 90% of gamblers have (MYSELF INCLUDED), discipline, "The need for action" overwhelmes us. I think it is only when you can treat your gambling completely as a business (& still have fun) that you will be fully succesfill...I hope to get there some day.
After all, a Playboy photogrepher has fun but I am sure he also worked hard to get there. & must continue to work hard in his day to day life.
gambling is primarily entertainment for me. i see this as a way to have an advantage most don't have when betting basketball. middling is not gambling and is not that much fun to me. however, if i can't hit enough to make money betting the bad lines, i'll probably middle until he boots me. then i should have enough scratch to gamble once again
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Luca Brasi:
I think too if you middle the guy, you leave less of a trail. That way, you're not always bettings dogs or favs, overs or unders and it might take the guy longer to figure out whats going on. He'll know you are winning, but won't know why
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I think that unless he is a total square he is going to realize that he is always getting hit on the weak numbers. If a number has moved one way, you are always betting the old number. Not hard to figure out.
In fact, it is not going to matter if blue middles or not...it will look the same from the bookie's point of view either way (a max bet on the weak number). The bookie doesn't know if he is middling at other shops or just playing the side. The same "trail" is left regardless...
I think too if you middle the guy, you leave less of a trail. That way, you're not always bettings dogs or favs, overs or unders and it might take the guy longer to figure out whats going on. He'll know you are winning, but won't know why
I think that unless he is a total square he is going to realize that he is always getting hit on the weak numbers. If a number has moved one way, you are always betting the old number. Not hard to figure out.
In fact, it is not going to matter if blue middles or not...it will look the same from the bookie's point of view either way (a max bet on the weak number). The bookie doesn't know if he is middling at other shops or just playing the side. The same "trail" is left regardless...
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> In fact, it is not going to matter if blue middles or not...it will look the same from the bookie's point of view either way (a max bet on the weak number). <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
EXACTLY,I wasnt sure what he was taking about, he would have to be a total idiot...I mean if he has access to a computer after all...
In my case my local has no clue how to operate a computer but he only works from 6pm to 7pm so it is much harder to catch an "off line"...he also has access to a phone number where he can double check the lines...In my case he knows I only bang his weak numbers & he hates me for it but is too "proud" to cut me off. Is he ever an a hole however when I am up...& is so nice when i am down...point being...if your guy has enough cx's he may not care...this is why he caps you to 200$ 300$....it is a profitable business model...look at SIA...
EXACTLY,I wasnt sure what he was taking about, he would have to be a total idiot...I mean if he has access to a computer after all...
In my case my local has no clue how to operate a computer but he only works from 6pm to 7pm so it is much harder to catch an "off line"...he also has access to a phone number where he can double check the lines...In my case he knows I only bang his weak numbers & he hates me for it but is too "proud" to cut me off. Is he ever an a hole however when I am up...& is so nice when i am down...point being...if your guy has enough cx's he may not care...this is why he caps you to 200$ 300$....it is a profitable business model...look at SIA...
i honestly don't think he will catch on. i believe this because i don't think he checks the line moves later...he just gets his numbers off the website, writes them down on a sheet of paper, then takes bets, goes to sleep, wakes up the next morning and sees who won and who lost.
the other thing is, i am only up $700 in four weeks so, its not like i'm killing him. i have lost a lot more recently too so, i don't think i'll get the boot.
one last thing...i think i may be the only guy on a side sometimes (i happen to play cards with some of his other customers). which means, he likes me since i help to balance his action to a certain degree.
the other thing is, i am only up $700 in four weeks so, its not like i'm killing him. i have lost a lot more recently too so, i don't think i'll get the boot.
one last thing...i think i may be the only guy on a side sometimes (i happen to play cards with some of his other customers). which means, he likes me since i help to balance his action to a certain degree.
just play some games you like that his line is NOT off on...games you would normally play elsewhere
a less honorable way would be to figure out how much money you want to "give back" and lay it on a 4-teamer...either you give it back to him and you look like a fool, or he boots you, but you lay into him good...
a less honorable way would be to figure out how much money you want to "give back" and lay it on a 4-teamer...either you give it back to him and you look like a fool, or he boots you, but you lay into him good...
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Why don't you just middle them <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Simpleton always looking for the simple answer.
figure out which price has a higher expectation and bet. What do you think Walter's would do if presented with this opportunity? Think he would just middle them?
Simpleton always looking for the simple answer.
figure out which price has a higher expectation and bet. What do you think Walter's would do if presented with this opportunity? Think he would just middle them?
