question about betting into a line that is off significantly

blueedwards · Feb 8, 2004

i just hooked up with a local that gets his lines from a website around 10:30 a.m. then does not adjust them the whole day.

now, if i bet a game that tips at 6:00, this results in lines that are significantly different that the current lines at gametime. here is my question...do you bet a game that is "off" by 2 points or more no matter what?

i have done this pretty much ac**** the board so far with mixed results. i have taken teams i would normally not take. for example, today when the whole world had dayton -4, he had dayton -6.5. i called and took umass plus 6.5 and lost the bet. was it the smart thing to do taking umass? should i take this bet every time?

lander · Feb 8, 2004

Why don't you just middle them?

It would save you the stress of having to watch back and forth basketball games.

blueedwards · Feb 8, 2004

good point lander. i may end up doing that eventually. i guess my initial thought was that i could make more money by just hammering the "bad" line that i could middling...assuming that the closing line is the accurate line, in the end, i should end up winning big. right?

ballsofblue · Feb 8, 2004

no matter is you middle or just hit the line. remember to bleed him, don't get greedy. could be a steady source of extra income if you play it right

BillDozer · Feb 8, 2004

It depends which sport. In NBA I thnk you would whoop him long term.

If you play at bodog you could grab their line right before gametime at 10% bonus on every wager. You could do middle attempts for free.

brewster · Feb 8, 2004

Nice problem to have

Moon88 · Feb 8, 2004

i would agree with balls do not get greedy, also i agree with bill stick to the NBA where there is a 3 pt diff or higher you will be alright.......if he catches on he may cut you off so do not get greedy! i wish i had a sharp bookie like yours.....he must have alot of squares because he really does not know what he is doing one day he may get spanked

blueedwards · Feb 8, 2004

i have yet to see a line off by 3 points. also, my limit is pretty low with him so, i doubt he will ever cut me off.

Moon88 · Feb 8, 2004

blue rap game against orl a few days ago.... a couple mins before tip off game went rap-4.5 to 7 and even 8 TMAC last minute scratch

Moon88 · Feb 8, 2004

actually 2.5 and up is a great deal in the NBA

Moon88 · Feb 8, 2004

p.s keep an eye on circled games good night ....time for bed!

SportSavant · Feb 8, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> assuming that the closing line is the accurate line, <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

could just be that the public moved it...it is my beleif that in most cases it is the opening line that is most accurate...

drunkguy · Feb 8, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by SportSavant:

could just be that the public moved it...it is my beleif that in most cases it is the opening line that is most accurate...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

The opening line can never be the most "accurate". It only represents the opinion of a single party, the linesmaker. The closing line reflects everyone's opinions...sharps, squares, books, etc.

The "public" is rarely if ever responsible for major line moves for two reasons (1) the sharps as a whole are moving a lot more money on each game, and (2) sharp action is weighted more heavily in moving the line. Public action only has a chance to move the line in really major TV events like the superbowl when the books are looking at an unusually large handle.

Even if you make the assumption that the linesmaker is the smartest opinion (which I think is rarely if ever true), then that would make the opening line the LEAST accurate, as the linesmaker will be trying to bait the bettors into the wrong side, and there would be no reason to make an "accurate" line.

DarrylParsons · Feb 9, 2004

drunkguy,

Very good points

blue,

If you want to see what happens to people who continuously hit bad lines, go to wagerline and look up a guy named "ChopTime". Over 95% of his picks are nothing more than picking off bad lines. Sometimes he middles if there's a good opportunity, sometimes not, but it only depends on the prices available. If you check his picks at any point in time you'll see that he's got an average of 1.5-2 points better than anything available on the market. Oh, and of the 10,000+ handicappers there he's the all-time leader.

areeff · Feb 9, 2004

Just posts lines then cushions them with an extra point or two knowing this will make him hit 60% or so in the long run

GLJJNOVA · Feb 9, 2004

blue, I think there's alot on sparp money bet on B-ball. So I think the late lines are pretty sharp. The different lines will present middle chances and real value plays at times. Not a bad problem to have IMO.

Best Wishes
Gary

blueedwards · Feb 9, 2004

thanks for the input guys. i think i will continue to play into the bad lines for now and not try middling. my reason is that my limits are so low with the local that middling is not really worth it. if i can hit around 60% on the local lines, this should be a nice return. plus, its more like gambling than middling. i mean what fun is it if all i can lose is $20 or $30 on a game?

blueedwards · Feb 9, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by areeff:
sounds like he's one of those guys who...Just posts lines then cushions them with an extra point or two knowing this will make him hit 60% or so in the long run<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

i think he is just a lazy guy who has had success doing this in the past because most of his customers are squares who bet the favorite and the over religiously.

SportSavant · Feb 9, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> i mean what fun is it if all i can lose is $20 or $30 on a game? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

does this mean your limit is 200$ to 300$?

if you middle & lose you lose 10% so 30$ But if you win it is 600$?

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> The "public" is rarely if ever responsible for major line moves for two reasons (1) the sharps as a whole are moving a lot more money on each game, and (2) sharp action is weighted more heavily in moving the line. Public action only has a chance to move the line in really major TV events like the superbowl when the books are looking at an unusually large handle. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

thank you for the excellent feedback drunk...I am skeptical however...I do feel that the public has more sway even in non TV games than the sharp does...They may not be betting large amounts but more often than not they are betting on the same side...How about any given sunday in the NFL? are you suggesting that public betting doesnt move the line?

blueedwards · Feb 9, 2004

sport savant, yes my limit is $200 in college and $300 in the pros. and, while the propect of risking $30 to win $600 is appetizing, it doesn't happen enough. i'd just rather pick off the bad lines and win 60% if i can.

regarding the "which line is the most accurate line" arguement, i'd have to agree with drunkguy...when the sharps bet a basketabll game the line almost always moves.