Quacks 2016 pick thread

[Addicted2quack]

Welcome back guys, hope everyone had a blessed offseason. Less than two week till the season starts so I figured I'd get things going. I'm taking a new approach to things and only betting 3 or less plays per week and never wagering more than the same amount every time. I'll call everything 1 unit and list the odds from bet online. Not a big spender, but a huge football fans that likes action. Best of luck guys:

week 1 plays:

LSU/Wisconsin under 44.5(-110)
- there's more to this game than Fournettle. In fact the emphasis will be on defense and clock control, and while I think Fournettle will get his yards I don't think he's going to run all over the Badgers. The Badgers themselves have a plethora of good RB's too, so I don't expect a lot of passing from either team, especially from les miles who has a lot of pressure on him this year. 23-16 type of game, lots of Fgs and punts with both offenses keeping it tucked away on the ground.

kstate/Stanford -16(-110)
-both teams are trying to find QB's but the obvious storyline here is Stanford having one of the top players in the country. I like Snyder as a crafty coach to stay in games his team has no business being apart of, but kstate doesn't have a the players capable of bottling up mccaffrey. He's so incredibly versatile and electric I just can't help but to imagine he will have 100 yards rushing, 100 yards receiving and 3-4 tds when it's all said and done. K state will try to mill every possession and that's smart, but stanfords defense is going to eat up the one dimensional offense virtually every drive. This one should be ugly, and I could see it ending up 41-13.

s. Carolina/vandy under 42.5(-110)
- I saw a couple of other cappers point this game out and the more I looked at it the more i started to believe their point of views. It's just two completely inept offenses squaring up against good defenses... Who wins..... No clue, nor do I care, but it's hard to see this as anything more than a 23-10 finale.

Have a great first week gentleman, let's all keep it in the black

 

[Conan]

I like the Stanford pick but I have just one reservation about it.

That would be about the Cardinal breaking in a new QB.
I remember when Hogan first took over for Luck back when,
it took about 8 games before he got the hang of running the
offense. Perhaps the Stanford juggernaut won't score but
something in the 20s and the line is kinda big for that sort
of measly offensive output.

On the other hand, perhaps they won't need to throw but
10 passes all game and whup KSU handily with their star
studded rushing offense, albeit most of their OL is pretty
new as starters... not so inexperienced but still new.

 

[Addicted2quack]

I like the Stanford pick but I have just one reservation about it.

That would be about the Cardinal breaking in a new QB.
I remember when Hogan first took over for Luck back when,
it took about 8 games before he got the hang of running the
offense. Perhaps the Stanford juggernaut won't score but
something in the 20s and the line is kinda big for that sort
of measly offensive output.

On the other hand, perhaps they won't need to throw but
10 passes all game and whup KSU handily with their star
studded rushing offense, albeit most of their OL is pretty
new as starters... not so inexperienced but still new.

I took all all that into consideration as well and the thought almost made me back off the bet; then I realized that I've seen this Stanford team play a lot, and their style is physically grueling to keep up with... The game may not boast a lot of scoring but k state is in disarray all over from one position to the next and they have an unproven qb who was hurt all last year. Stanford may give up one or two scores but I just see such a massive talent discrepancy on paper and that demoralizing rushing attack from Stanford sets up such easy play action to big TEs and mccaffrey out of the backfield. I don't know if it will be a blow out, but I think it's a 3 score win. A 28-10 win wouldn't surprise me lol

 

[8ate]

under..gl

 

[Addicted2quack]

Thank 8ate

 

[Conan]

I took all all that into consideration as well and the thought almost made me back off the bet; then I realized that I've seen this Stanford team play a lot, and their style is physically grueling to keep up with... The game may not boast a lot of scoring but k state is in disarray all over from one position to the next and they have an unproven qb who was hurt all last year. Stanford may give up one or two scores but I just see such a massive talent discrepancy on paper and that demoralizing rushing attack from Stanford sets up such easy play action to big TEs and mccaffrey out of the backfield. I don't know if it will be a blow out, but I think it's a 3 score win. A 28-10 win wouldn't surprise me lol

Well I did say I liked the side, but I suppose there are few if any guarantees.
That information about KSU's players being in disarray is pretty good stuff.
Stanford also plays a time of possession style of a control game and that
might well tip the scales here.

 

[rolltide]

kstate/Stanford -16(-110)

pointed this out a few times before but if you play KState you want to play them early. Snyder of course loads up with JUCO kids and most years have a team with the fewest returning starters in the Big 12 (but actually not too bad for 2016) so usually come out crawling then go crazy ATS in mid season. Games 6-10 is when they heat up and last year's 1-4 ATS mark in those weeks was just the 2nd time since 1990 that they had a losing record, ATS, in weeks 6-10 ... they are 88-40-2 ATS in game number 6-10 since 1990

game 1 not so pretty though, just 4-9 ATS in last 13 years including close calls against Illinois State (won 24-23), UMass (21-17), Eastern Kentucky (won 10-7)

if you're gonna play 'em, play 'em early

 

[Addicted2quack]

Good stuff Conan and roll tide, thanks for the info

 

[Addicted2quack]

Adding another unit onto Stanford who is now -14 (-105)..... I said I wouldn't make more than 3 wagers per week but this is all to tempting considering the juice and the line dropping two points in my favor. I've always said once your in on a game, and the line shifts in your favor; don't buy out, buy in. Not a big spender anymore so my units are small and adding one isn't really much of anything but I just like Stanford by 3+ tds.

2 total units on Stanford; BOL everyone and let's enjoy a great week 1

 

[tmader7]

Quackster, welcome back! While you were vacationing, lol, some of us decided baseball couldn't make it without some RX'ers. Love that under play in the Dores home opener, I'm on it rather large for first week out the gate. GL my friend!

~T~

 

[Addicted2quack]

1 win out of the 4 wagers so far. Stanford tonight. Bol gentleman

1-0 on the season +1 unit

 

[indiana]

2/quack...........BOL with all your action this weekend............continued success with this season.............indy

 

[bigwang]

Good luck Quack.

What do you think of your Ducks? They are going to score a ton but like always, the defense is the question mark.

i have heavy chalk ml bet on Stan to close out a screw around 6 team parlay. Stan and Ind were the only plays over -110 so a decent payout. Banking on Mccaferry making enough plays on his own to win game no matter the new qb play.

 

[Addicted2quack]

Good luck Quack.

What do you think of your Ducks? They are going to score a ton but like always, the defense is the question mark.

i have heavy chalk ml bet on Stan to close out a screw around 6 team parlay. Stan and Ind were the only plays over -110 so a decent payout. Banking on Mccaferry making enough plays on his own to win game no matter the new qb play.

thanks BW;

in in all honesty I think the ducks are going to be one of the best offenses they've ever put on the field. Prukop is highly mobile and a feisty competitor, making that rushing attack more devastating and bringing it back to the Dennis Dixon and Mariota days with the offense incorporating more zone read concepts. The WRs are phenomenal and the TEs may be the best group in the country that no one talks about. My concern is that Oregon is starting 3 frosh on the O line, that's a little worrisome.

defensively the ducks are young again and while they are talented, they aren't that good. Multiple reports have Brady hoke blatantly saying they stink; this could be a ploy by him trying to make opposing teams think they're worse than they are, or it could be hoke telling the truth. I think it's the latter...... The only positive thing about the defense his year is that the secondary returns everyone, so while they aren't great yet, they are mostly sophomore or juniors with a year or more experience and they have depth. I'm hoping that allows them to quiet down most passing attacks. The 4-3 system will allow the front seven to just get down hill and that's all they can really do. There won't be a lot of fancy concepts, hoke knows that, and it's because they are thin at LB and young on the D line.

With that being said I bet Oregon finishes around 70th in total defense this year, as hoke will find a way to work with what he has and really keep Oregon in almost every ballgame. With the Oregon offense as good as it might be this season, oregons defense doesn't need to be a top 25 defense, just good enough to force one turnover a game and a few punts, and the ducks are liable to win almost every game on that schedule. I see a 9-3 season and a bowl win for 10-3 overrall. But if the offense doesn't click it's a 7-5 season at best, and that scares me because that's more likely than a 10 win season

 

[Addicted2quack]

"Interesting" Stanford game lol.... Sheeesh. Bad, bad play calling.

1-2 on the year -1.1 units.

pending lsu/Wisconsin under.

bol guys

 

[Lvtexholdm]

Agreed with poor coaching, especially the onside kick.

 

[Addicted2quack]

That Stanford game thru me off so I'm going to add a play or two for the action. So much for 3 plays a week this season. Hopefully I can clean it up after this opening week and narrow some selections.

however, I'm interested in this bowling green and Ohio state total at 66.5.... Here's my thought process; Ohio state is far more gifted obviously and their playmakers will undoubtedly show up, likely to the tune of 50 points, especially with a savvy qb like Barrett at the helm to lean on. With that being said Ohio state is last in returning starters in the country, that has to count for some discontinuity early on, in assuming on the defensive side more so. While bowling green lost Matt Johnson, Greene and most of their WR Corp, they also return their other great senior RB, the best O-line in any mid major conference and a proven qb who was backup and starter at one point in the senior knapke.... The total is 66.5 and I don't trust BGSI enough to hang with Ohio state at home for the spread, but I do trust them to score a little and push Ohio state. Both offenses will run tempo, BG more so than Ohio state. We all know tempo leads to a lot of higher scoring games for many reasons. I think Buckeyes win comfortably, but I think the total goes over by the 3rd quarter. 52-27 final and we see some early struggles from Ohio state trying to stop a flashy offense for four quarters

over 66.5 1 unit

 

[bigwang]

Thanks for the details on Ducks. Your thread will be a must read since I like betting West Coast games.

Stanford looked like they thought it was an exhibition. They did just enough to win. Came up empty off the 2 ints. Shaw easing qbs in but they have plenty of speed on outside once they open it up. Defense gave up yards but few points. 7 on the 2 minute drill.

Agree wth you on Ohio/BG ov. It shot up a decent amount since mid Aug. I played it the other day at 66 along with BG+28. Hopefully your final score is on point.

 

[Addicted2quack]

Ucla +3.5 (-103) 1 unit

 

[indiana]

A/2q.........lov the play.......BOL today...........indy