Preakness Talk

[Baldheadedprick]

Kaboom the (G) means they’ve gelded him since his last start

In this race if I play it I’d lean towards the 1-Forest Fire has a good speed number over a wet track & 6-Dream Baby Dream no such monsters in here like his Ark Derby field

 

[TheComputerGroup]

The weather for Pimlico is another 3 inches of rain from now thru Sunday.

 

[Kaboom]

Kaboom the (G) means they’ve gelded him since his last start

In this race if I play it I’d lean towards the 1-Forest Fire has a good speed number over a wet track & 6-Dream Baby Dream no such monsters in here like his Ark Derby field

Thanks for your input bro ... always appreciated ....

 

[Kaboom]

The weather for Pimlico is another 3 inches of rain from now thru Sunday.

Crazy weather ... wow ....

 

[Kaboom]

Great Race ... Not going to be greedy here but if Bravazo would have beat Justify ...much better payday ....even with the huge favorite Justify ...

Here is the final breakdown on a few things ....

							11/47 or 23 % Winners had Index over 1.00
							So 77% of Preakness Winners had below Index of 1.00
2018 Finish	Fem Fam	Contender	5th Gen	3rd Gen	Dosage	CD	Index
1st Place	1-h	Justify	Storm Bird	Hennessy	3	0.75	0.96
2nd Place	A-10	Bravazo	Nearctic	Blushing Groom	2.75	0.67	1.14
3rd Place	3-n	Tenfold	Native Dancer	Classy N Smart	3	0.69	0.83
4th Place	12-c	Good Magic	Native	Classy N Smart	3.4	0.82	0.61
5th Place	A-4	Lone Sailor	Boldnesian	Seattle Slew	2.71	0.65	0.9
6th Place	4-m	Sporting Chance	Intentionally	Seattle Song	2.2	0.63	0.95
7th Place	9	Diamond King	RAN	Gone West	2.6	0.67	0.78
Last 8th Place	1-c	Quip	Native Dancer	In Excess	3	0.88	1.04

Pedigree Chart I just started this year ...order of finish ... Percentage wise in Preakness only ... In the AGR Column ...I look for anything over 8 % Northern Dancer / 10 % Mr Prospector / 6 % Nearco ... also 3 % more of Teddy and Hyperion are key horses .... fyi

Justify 1st Place			Bravazo 2nd Place
Horse	AGR		Horse	AGR
MR PROSPECTOR	21.59%		NORTHERN DANCER	11.68%
NIJINSKY2	13.72%		NASRULLAH	8.36%
NORTHERN DANCER	10.84%		NEARCO	6.18%*
NATIVE DANCER	7.23%		TEDDY	3.52%*
NASRULLAH	7.86%*		POLYNESIAN	3.91%
NARRATE	11.05%
NEARCO	6.05%*
HAWAII	5.36%
MAHMOUD	3.13%
Tenfold 3rd Place			Good Magic 4th place
Horse	AGR		Horse	AGR
MR PROSPECTOR	19.22%		MR PROSPECTOR	22.13%
NORTHERN DANCER	12.64%		NORTHERN DANCER	15.64%
NATIVE DANCER	7.64%		RAISE A NATIVE	13.46%
NASRULLAH	8.65%*		NATIVE DANCER	9.64%
NEARCO	6.60%*		NEARCO	7.64%*
POLYNESIAN	5.13%*		NASRULLAH	9.48%
NASHUA	7.84%		POLYNESIAN	6.25%
NIJINSKY2	9.25%
Lone Sailor 5th
Horse	AGR		Sporting Chance 6th
SECRETARIAT	20.53%		Horse	AGR
MR PROSPECTOR	16.94%		NORTHERN DANCER	12.35%
BOLD RULER	16.46%		LYPHARD	12.24%
NASRULLAH	12.70%*		NASRULLAH	6.25%*
RAISE A NATIVE	11.90%		NEARCO	5.18%*
SOMETHINGROYAL	8.98%		MR PROSPECTOR	6.82%
NATIVE DANCER	9.50%
NEARCO	7.81%*
BROADWAY	7.69%
NORTHERN DANCER	10.02%
BUCKPASSER	8.03%
Diamond King 7th			Quip Last Place
Horse	AGR		Horse	AGR
MR PROSPECTOR	22.56%		RAISE A NATIVE	16.03%
RAISE A NATIVE	14.08%		NORTHERN DANCER	13.34%
NASRULLAH	10.35%		NATIVE DANCER	9.94%
NORTHERN DANCER	12.62%		NEARCO	8.17%*
NATIVE DANCER	8.98%*		NASRULLAH	9.89%*
NEARCO	7.81%*		POLYNESIAN	5.37%*

Justify 1st Place			Bravazo 2nd Place
Horse	AGR		Horse	AGR
MR PROSPECTOR	21.59%		NORTHERN DANCER	11.68%
NIJINSKY2	13.72%		NASRULLAH	8.36%
NORTHERN DANCER	10.84%		NEARCO	6.18%*
NATIVE DANCER	7.23%		TEDDY	3.52%*
NASRULLAH	7.86%*		POLYNESIAN	3.91%
NARRATE	11.05%
NEARCO	6.05%*
HAWAII	5.36%
MAHMOUD	3.13%
Tenfold 3rd Place			Good Magic 4th place
Horse	AGR		Horse	AGR
MR PROSPECTOR	19.22%		MR PROSPECTOR	22.13%
NORTHERN DANCER	12.64%		NORTHERN DANCER	15.64%
NATIVE DANCER	7.64%		RAISE A NATIVE	13.46%
NASRULLAH	8.65%*		NATIVE DANCER	9.64%
NEARCO	6.60%*		NEARCO	7.64%*
POLYNESIAN	5.13%*		NASRULLAH	9.48%
NASHUA	7.84%		POLYNESIAN	6.25%
NIJINSKY2	9.25%
Lone Sailor 5th
Horse	AGR		Sporting Chance 6th
SECRETARIAT	20.53%		Horse	AGR
MR PROSPECTOR	16.94%		NORTHERN DANCER	12.35%
BOLD RULER	16.46%		LYPHARD	12.24%
NASRULLAH	12.70%*		NASRULLAH	6.25%*
RAISE A NATIVE	11.90%		NEARCO	5.18%*
SOMETHINGROYAL	8.98%		MR PROSPECTOR	6.82%
NATIVE DANCER	9.50%
NEARCO	7.81%*
BROADWAY	7.69%
NORTHERN DANCER	10.02%
BUCKPASSER	8.03%
Diamond King 7th			Quip Last Place
Horse	AGR		Horse	AGR
MR PROSPECTOR	22.56%		RAISE A NATIVE	16.03%
RAISE A NATIVE	14.08%		NORTHERN DANCER	13.34%
NASRULLAH	10.35%		NATIVE DANCER	9.94%
NORTHERN DANCER	12.62%		NEARCO	8.17%*
NATIVE DANCER	8.98%*		NASRULLAH	9.89%*
NEARCO	7.81%*		POLYNESIAN	5.37%*

I'm just learning all this stuff guys , so limit the questions , if any .....just breaking down what I see from Previous Winners ....