Preakness Talk

[Kaboom]

Fem Fam	Poss Contender	5th Gen	3rd Gen	Dosage	CD	Index
1-n	Pony Up	Bold Ruler	Is it True	3	0.77	0.73

The Combination of Both First Line Horses in Both 5th Generation Bold Ruler and 3rd Generation Is it True has never been entered in the Preakness in last 47 years ...

The Exact Female Line Match of 1-n ...never won ...but 3 ...2nd place and ....2 .... 3rd place ... with 13 entries in last 47 years

1-n	2
1-n	2
1-n	2
1-n	3rd
1-n	3rd
1-n	6th
1-n	7th
1-n	6th
1-n	7th
1-n	7th
1-n	8th
1-n	9th
1-n	11th

For me .... 4th spot only ..but of course , your call ...

 

[Kaboom]

Fem Fam	Poss Contender	5th Gen	3rd Gen	Dosage	CD	Index
1-h	Givemeaminit	RAN	Fappiano	3.44	0.7	0.68

The Combination of Both First Line Horses in Both 5th Generation Raise a Native and Fappiano ...last 47 years ...best finish ... 2nd place ( 1 Time ) ...

2012 Bodemeister

RAN	Fappiano	2nd
RAN	Fappiano	5th
RAN	Fappiano	7th
RAN	Fappiano	9th
RAN	Fappiano	11th
RAN	Fappiano	11th

The Exact Female Line Match of 1-h ....2/5 entries last 47 years finished in 2nd place ...

1-h	2
1-h	2
1-h	8th
1-h	8th
1-h	11th

For me if using ...I have him in the 4th spot ...with a small maybe in 3rd spot too ...

 

[Prof_Factor]

Great stuff ...

 

[Baldheadedprick]

Kaboom once again you’ve outdone yourself

 

[Kaboom]

Great stuff ...

Thank you for the kudos and stopping in bro .... much appreciated ... GL this Sat !!!

 

[Kaboom]

Kaboom once again you’ve outdone yourself

Thanks brotha !!! Always appreciate guys stopping in to let me know they enjoy the stats .... keeps me posting ... GL Sat !!!

 

[Serbone]

Kaboom: Outstanding information, thank you for the hard work!

 

[Kaboom]

Kaboom: Outstanding information, thank you for the hard work!

Thank you Serbone !!!Let's hope someone can cash in ...Working on equivalents inside the pedigree right now ..past 5 winners of so have had 8% or more of Mr Prospector or Northern Dancer in pedigree ...I'm going to try an angle ,eventually adding those 2 Horses equivalent percentages to see if I can find something ...just a hobby ...Gl

on the Preakness.

 

[razorbackpicks]

Good luck this weekend!

 

[Kaboom]

Good luck this weekend!

Thanks Razor ...u too bro !!

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Youre like a mad scientist breaking everything down.....I feel like I need an MTI diploma to understand all the info, lol.......good stuff Kaboom!

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Youre like a mad scientist breaking everything down.....I feel like I need an MTI diploma to understand all the info, lol.......good stuff Kaboom!

MIT diploma****

 

[Kaboom]

Youre like a mad scientist breaking everything down.....I feel like I need an MTI diploma to understand all the info, lol.......good stuff Kaboom!

I just have fun with it all bro ... now that I'm retired ...this is my hobby , until College Football rolls around ....lol

I know some or may be all of it is a bit out there but you never know when you stumble on what I call ... a moneymaker ...lol ...

Thanks for the stop in bro ...and for the Diploma ....too funny ...

 

[Kaboom]

More than likely there is nothing here but I will post it up anyway in case you guys too understand it a bit and find it interesting ...

In the linebreeding of a pedigree ...

I focus in a few keys horses to have certain percentages which are key in previous first and 2nd place finishers in Preakness ...

These are the horses and percentages for I'm looking for inside these charts

Not many horses have Hyperion over 3 % ,but if you see I like it ... he's quality ....is what I heard ...just learning guys

1 ) Mr Prospector is a Key Horse to have in your pedigree for many of the previous Preakness 1st or 2nd place finishers 2010 - 2017 ...

Look for Mr Prospector 8 % or higher in the AGR column

2 ) Nearco ...preferably 6 % or Over

3 ) Northern Dancer 8 % or More

4 ) I really like seeing a horse with all 3 ( Mr Prospector / Nearco/ Northern Dancer ) of course with their preferred percentages ...

Noticed 2011 winner Shackleford did not have of these horses in his chart and won ...so beware , is all

Example

Cloud Computing

Horse	Inbreeding Stats	Crosses	Lines	Blood%	Influence	AGR
MR PROSPECTOR	4S x 6S x 5S	3	3 (3) (0)	10.94%	4x5	12.60%
SECRETARIAT	6s x 4d	2	2 (0) (2)	7.81%	5x5	10.85%
TURN-TO	7S x 7s x 7D x 7D x 6D x 5d	6	4 (2) (2)	7.81%	5x5	9.25%
NEARCO	8S x 8S x 7S x 9S x 9S x 9S x 9S x 9S x 9S x 8D x 9D x 8D x 7D x 9D x 8D x 7D x 7D	17	4 (4) (0)	6.64%	5x5	6.84%*
HAIL TO REASON	6S x 6d x 5D	3	3 (2) (1)	6.25%	5x5	9.53%
NASRULLAH	7S x 7s x 9S x 8S x 8S x 8S x 7D x 7d x 6D	9	5 (3) (2)	6.05%	5x6	7.96%

Here is the website I use ...http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?

If you want the chart though you have to invest $10 for the month to get this chart ....sorry .. I didn't realize you guys would have to pay for the chart ...Probably not worth it ....

I will post the contenders ..and you have my guidelines on the horses to look for .... if anyone suggest any other horses to look for inside the linebreeding chart ...please let me know ...

Contenders and my thoughts ....

Justify ...NOTICE HE HAS THE 3 HORSES I MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SAME CHART WITH THE PERCENTAGES WE ARE LOOKING FOR .... Really like Mr Prospector % !!!! Using in first 2 spots

Horse	Inbreeding Stats	Crosses	Lines	Blood%	Influence	AGR
MR PROSPECTOR	5s x 3s x 6d x 5d	4	4(0)(4)	20.31%	3x4	21.59%
NIJINSKY2	7s x 4s x 7d x 5D	4	3 (1) (2)	10.94%	4x5	13.72%
NORTHERN DANCER	6S x 8S x 5S x 6D x 8D x 6D	6	3(3)(0)	8.59%	5x5	10.84%
NATIVE DANCER	8s x 7S x 5S x 7s x 8d x 8D x 7D x 8d	8	2(1)(1)	7.03%	5x5	7.23%
NASRULLAH	8S x 8S x 9S x 6S x 7D x 9D x 9D x 9d x 8D x 8D x 9D x 7D x 8d x 8D	14	6 (4) (2)	6.45%	5x5	7.86%*
NARRATE	5s x 5d	2	2 (0) (2)	6.25%	5x5	11.05%
NEARCO	8S x 9S x 9S x 8S x 9S x 7S x 7S x 8D x 8D x 9D x 9D x 8D x 8D x 9D x 9D x 9d	16	5(4)(1)	5.47%	5x6	6.05%*
HAWAII	5s x 6d	2	2 (0) (2)	4.69%	5x6	5.36%
MAHMOUD	9s x 8S x 8s x 9s x 9s x 8s x 8s x 9d x 7D x 9D x 9d x 9d x 8d	13	7 (2) (5)	4.10%	6x6	3.13%

Good Magic ....Love this horse , myself ... only horse with a shot at beating Justify ....only my opinion ...this horse has all 3 horses inside the chart like Justify !!!! ... The other horse I'm using in the first 2 spots

Horse	Inbreeding Stats	Crosses	Lines	Blood%	Influence	AGR
MR PROSPECTOR	3S x 4D	2	2 (2) (0)	18.75%	3x4	22.13%
NORTHERN DANCER	5S x 4D x 5D	3	3 (3) (0)	12.50%	4x4	15.64%
RAISE A NATIVE	4S x 6D x 5D	3	2 (2) (0)	10.94%	4x5	13.46%
NATIVE DANCER	5S x 7s x 6d x 7D x 6D x 7d	6	2 (1) (1)	8.59%	5x5	9.64%
NEARCO	7S x 8S x 8S x 7S x 9S x 9S x 6D x 9D x 9D x 9D x 9D x 8D x 8D x 7D x 9D x 8D	16	3 (3) (0)	7.23%	5x5	7.64%*
NASRULLAH	6S x 7S x 8S x 8D x 8d x 8D x 7D x 7d x 8D x 7D	10	8 (6) (2)	6.64%	5x5	9.48%

Quip ... I will use in the 3rd and 4 spots in my gimmicks ....

Horse	Inbreeding Stats	Crosses	Lines	Blood%	Influence	AGR
RAISE A NATIVE	4S x 6d x 4d	3	3 (1) (2)	14.06%	4x4	16.03%
NORTHERN DANCER	4S x 6D x 6D	3	3 (3) (0)	9.38%	4x5	13.34%
NATIVE DANCER	5S x 6s x 8d x 7D x 8d x 5D	6	2 (1) (1)	9.38%	4x5	9.94%
NEARCO	7S x 7S x 6S x 8S x 8S x 9D x 8D x 8D x 9D x 8D x 9D x 8D x 9D x 8D x 7D	15	4 (4) (0)	7.42%	5x5	8.17%*
NASRULLAH	6S x 6s x 8D x 8D x 7D x 8d x 9D x 9d x 7D x 8d	10	8 (4) (4)	6.64%	5x5	9.89%*

Bravazo ... using in 3rd and 4th spots ...love seeing this horse with Teddy at 4% in his chart ... a very good horse

Horse	Inbreeding Stats	Crosses	Lines	Blood%	Influence	AGR
NORTHERN DANCER	4S x 5D	2	2(2)(0)	9.38%	4x5	11.68%
NASRULLAH	5S x 7S x 8D x 8d x 6D	5	4 (3) (1)	6.25%	5x5	8.36%
NEARCO	6S x 6S x 8S x 7D x 9D x 9D x 7D	7	2(2)(0)	5.47%	5x6	6.18%*
TEDDY	9S x 8s x 9s x 8S x 8S x 9S x 9D x 9d x 9D x 9d x 9d x 9D x 9d x 9D x 9D x 8D x 9D	17	8(4)(4)	4.10%	6x6	3.52%*

Sporting Chance ... Trainer Lukas always capable of huge upsets ... just don't think that will happen here ...but he does have some horses in his chart I like so I will use him in the 3rd and 4th spots .... he is a bit short on Nearco Percentage of 6 % or more which I prefer ....

NORTHERN DANCER	5S x 5S x 7D x 5D	4	3(3)(0)	10.16%	4x5	12.35%
LYPHARD	4s x 6d	2	2 (0) (2)	7.81%	5x5	12.24%
NASRULLAH	8S x 8s x 9D x 7D x 8D x 8D x 8D x 7D x 9D x 9D x 7D	11	6 (5) (1)	4.88%	5x6	6.25%*
NEARCO	7S x 9S x 9S x 7S x 8D x 9D x 9D x 9D x 9D x 8D x 7D x 8D	12	2 (2) (0)	4.69%	5x6	5.18%*
MR PROSPECTOR	6D x 5D	2	2 (2) (0)	4.69%	5x6	6.82%
NATIVE DANCER	7s x 7s x 8D x 9d x 7D x 7D x 7d	7	3 (2) (1)	4.49%	6x6	5.98%*
MAHMOUD	6S x 8s x 7S x 8s x 7s x 8d	6	4(2)(2)	4.30%	6x6	5.04%

Diamond King .... Using in 3rd and 4th Spots .... may use in 2nd spot as well in a few tickets ...lol ... really like his pedigree , but is he good enough to compete here ... way up in class ...

Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR MR PROSPECTOR 4S x 4d x 4D 3 3(2)(1) 18.75% 3x4 22.56% RAISE A NATIVE 5S x 5S x 5D x 5D 4 2 (2) (0) 12.50% 4x4 14.08% NASRULLAH 7S x 7S x 7s x 7S x 7S x 7S x 8D x 8d x 7D x 7D x 7D x 8d x 8D 13 6 (4) (2) 8.59% 5x5 10.35% NORTHERN DANCER 5S x 6S x 7D x 5d 4 3(2)(1) 8.59% 5x5 12.62% NATIVE DANCER 6S x 7s x 8s x 6S x 6D x 9d x 6D x 7d 8 2 (1) (1) 8.40% 5x5 8.98%* NEARCO 8S x 8S x 7S x 9S x 8S x 8S x 8S x 8S x 8S x 9D x 9D x 8D x 8D x 9D x 8D x 7D x 9D x 7D x 9D x 9d x 9D x 9d 22 6(4)(2) 8.01% 5x5 7.81%* SECRETARIAT 5s x 5d 2 2 (0) (2) 6.25% 5x5 10.91% NEARCTIC 6S x 7S x 8D x 6D x 6D 5 2 (2) (0) 5.86% 5x6 8.84% NASHUA 6s x 6d x 6d x 7D 4 2 (1) (1) 5.47% 5x6 9.33% BOLD RULER 6S x 6S x 7D x 6D 4 3 (3) (0) 5.47% 5x6 9.85% PRINCEQUILLO 7s x 8s x 7S x 8s x 8D x 7d x 9d x 8d x 7D 9 6 (3) (3) 4.88% 5x6 4.98%* NIJINSKY2 5S x 6D 2 2 (2) (0) 4.69% 5x6 10.34% POLYNESIAN 7S x 8S x 9S x 7S x 8d x 7D x 7D x 8D 8 2 (1) (1) 4.49% 6x6 4.59%* SOMETHINGROYAL 6S x 7S x 6D x 8D 4 2 (2) (0) 4.30% 6x6 5.71% HYPERION 9S x 8s x 9S x 9s x 8S x 9S x 8S x 9S x 8S x 8D x 8d x 9D x 8d 13 6(5)(1) 3.91% 6x6 3.61%*

Lone Sailor ... 3rd and 4th spots

Horse	Inbreeding Stats	Crosses	Lines	Blood%	Influence	AGR
SECRETARIAT	4s x 5s x 5d x 5d	4	4 (0) (4)	15.63%	4x4	20.53%
MR PROSPECTOR	4S x 4D	2	2 (2) (0)	12.50%	4x4	16.94%
BOLD RULER	6S x 5S x 6S x 6D x 5D x 6D	6	3 (3) (0)	12.50%	4x4	16.46%
NASRULLAH	7S x 7s x 6S x 7S x 9S x 7S x 9S x 7D x 7D x 6D x 8D x 7D x 7D x 6D	14	7 (6) (1)	11.72%	4x5	12.70%*
RAISE A NATIVE	5S x 5D x 5D	3	2 (2) (0)	9.38%	4x5	11.90%
SOMETHINGROYAL	5S x 7S x 6S x 6D x 6D	5	2 (2) (0)	8.59%	5x5	8.98%
NATIVE DANCER	6S x 7s x 6D x 6D x 7d x 6D	6	3 (2) (1)	7.81%	5x5	9.50%
NEARCO	8S x 9S x 8S x 7S x 9S x 8S x 7S x 8S x 8D x 8D x 7D x 9D x 7D x 8D x 8D x 7D	16	3(3)(0)	7.62%	5x5	7.81%*
BROADWAY	5s x 5D	2	2 (1) (1)	6.25%	5x5	7.69%
NORTHERN DANCER	5S x 5D	2	2(2)(0)	6.25%	5x5	10.02%

Telekinesis ....I really like seeing a horse with all 3 ( Mr Prospector / Nearco/ Northern Dancer ) of course with their preferred percentages ... Just does not have the class ... using in 3rd and 4th spots Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR MR PROSPECTOR 5s x 4D x 5D 3 3(2)(1) 12.50% 4x4 14.50% RAISE A NATIVE 6S x 5D x 6D x 7D 4 2 (2) (0) 7.03% 5x5 8.59% INTENTIONALLY 5S x 5D 2 2 (2) (0) 6.25% 5x5 6.54% NORTHERN DANCER 5S x 5d 2 2(1)(1) 6.25% 5x5 9.79% NATIVE DANCER 7s x 7S x 6D x 7d x 7D x 8D x 8d x 7d 8 3 (1) (2) 6.25% 5x5 6.64% NEARCO 7S x 7S x 9S x 9S x 8D x 9D x 8d x 9D x 9D x 8D x 8d x 9D x 9D x 9D x 7D 15 6(4)(2) 5.47% 5x6 5.66%*

Tenfold ... exactly like Telekinesis above ...just does have the class ...but have to use in 3rd and 4th spots

Horse	Inbreeding Stats	Crosses	Lines	Blood%	Influence	AGR
MR PROSPECTOR	3S x 5d x 6D	3	3(2)(1)	17.19%	4x4	19.22%
NORTHERN DANCER	5S x 8D x 6D x 6D x 5D	5	4(4)(0)	9.77%	4x5	12.64%
NATIVE DANCER	5S x 7s x 7D x 8D x 8d x 8d x 7d	7	2 (1) (1)	6.64%	5x5	7.64%
NASRULLAH	6S x 7S x 8S x 9D x 9d x 8D x 8D x 9D x 9D x 8D x 8D x 9D x 9D x 8d x 8D	15	8 (6) (2)	6.25%	5x5	8.65%*
NEARCO	7S x 8S x 8S x 7S x 9S x 9S x 9D x 9D x 8D x 8D x 9D x 9D x 7D x 9D x 9D	15	3(3)(0)	5.47%	5x6	6.60%*

Pony Up ....4th spot only ...if that ?

Horse	Inbreeding Stats	Crosses	Lines	Blood%	Influence	AGR
SECRETARIAT	4s x 4d	2	2 (0) (2)	12.50%	4x4	18.07%
BOLD RULER	5S x 5S x 6D x 5D	4	3 (3) (0)	10.94%	4x5	14.27%
BUCKPASSER	5d x 4d	2	2 (0) (2)	9.38%	4x5	10.07%
NASRULLAH	6S x 7S x 8s x 6S x 7D x 7d x 6D x 6D	8	4 (3) (1)	8.98%	5x5	11.30%
SOMETHINGROYAL	5S x 5D x 7D x 6D	4	2 (2) (0)	8.59%	5x5	9.38%
NEARCO	7S x 8S x 9S x 7S x 9S x 8S x 7S x 8D x 9D x 8D x 7D x 9D x 7D x 8D x 8D	15	4(4)(0)	7.03%	5x5	7.91%*

Givemeaminit ....probably use like Pony Up in the 4th spot if that ...but ...just for my notes ... Shackleford won the Preakness with Dr Fager over 10 % in the AGR Column .... Preaknness not known for long shots though ....

Horse	Inbreeding Stats	Crosses	Lines	Blood%	Influence	AGR
RAISE A NATIVE	5S x 6S x 4D	3	3 (3) (0)	10.94%	4x5	12.68%
DR FAGER	5s x 4s	2	2(0)(2)	9.38%	4x5	10.14%
NATIVE DANCER	6S x 7S x 8s x 6S x 5D x 7d	6	3 (2) (1)	8.20%	5x5	8.30%
NEARCO	8S x 6S x 8S x 8S x 7D x 7D x 8D x 7D x 7D	9	3(3)(0)	6.25%	5x5	6.25%
ROUND TABLE	5D x 5D	2	2 (2) (0)	6.25%	5x5	7.81%

Guys ... just using this as a tool , is all ...by far not a say all ....

Use it or not ...just sharing a different angle ....

 

[G.MONEY]

Great Reading and thank you for posting this

 

[Kaboom]

Great Reading and thank you for posting this

From Chg Burbs too bro ...glad u enjoy the read !

 

[Kaboom]

Over the past 41 years, the best post positions in the Preakness have been the eight post with eight winners and the three and seven posts with six winners each. Since 1986, we have seen just four winners that have broken from the 10 post and outward. From Odds Shark

 

[Kaboom]

Preakness Stakes 143​

Post	Horse	Trainer/Jockey	Odds
1.	Quip	Brisset/Geroux	12-1
2.	Lone Sailor	Amoss/Ortiz Jr.	15-1
3.	Sporting Chance	Lukas/Contreras	30-1
4.	Diamond King	Servis/Castellano	30-1
5.	Good Magic	Brown/Ortiz	3-1
6.	Tenfold	Asmussen/Santana Jr.	20-1
7.	Justify	Baffert/Smith	1-2
8.	Bravazo	Lukas/Saez	20-1

 

[Kaboom]

From HRN

Beyer Speed Figures

Horse	Last Start	Two Back	Three Back
Bravazo	91	64	93
Diamond King	84	82	79
Good Magic	99	95	89
Justify	103	107	101
Lone Sailor	89	95	78
Quip	92	94	68
Sporting Chance	77	91	89
Tenfold	92	86	87

Brisnet Speed Ratings

Horse	Last Start	Two Back	Three Back
Bravazo	93	76	98
Diamond King	95	93	91
Good Magic	99	98	99
Justify	102	114	104
Lone Sailor	92	100	83
Quip	95	98	84
Sporting Chance	79	95	93
Tenfold	94	93	92

TimeformUS Speed Figures

Horse	Last Start	Two Back	Three Back
Bravazo	117	94	110
Diamond King	108	108	113
Good Magic	124	121	113
Justify	127	131	122
Lone Sailor	115	113	96
Quip	111	111	95
Sporting Chance	105	117	111
Tenfold	108	111	108

 

[Kaboom]

Posted this on another forum

More for the action ...money wise the pic 3 will pay squat ...but I'm bored with the Preakness now ...so why not ...Feel Justify should win handily ... but who doesn't feel that way ? I feel u might see another scratch in the Preakness before the race due to weather ...

Sat Race 12 ..Sir Barton at Pimlico ...
From: cubs.fan

May-16


Horses shipping in after a Keeneland prep have done very well in the Preakness since they switched to dirt.



Pony Up .. raced 3rd closing at same distance with Grade 3 ...now the drop in class ...prep race at Keenland
If Baffert has Ax Man ready ( which I paper he does ) ...that 101 Beyer vs 54 K Maiden Special Weight , is very solid ... Unraced as a 2year old ....

Prince Lucky ... New Trainer / Jockey and won over the track ....not sure what the G means before the L ( Lasix ) ??? anyone ???
G L 116 ...

Title Ready ...another horse to consider , but that post may hurt ? Has the class to compete here ... Asmussen horse ...

Not complete tosses yet ...Forest Fire ... won on a muddy track at Laurel vs cheaper

Dream baby Dream ....has some class but lost to Title Ready

Takedown has a win over the track vs cheaper ...

So far ...may change ... looking at

Exacta ....2,8 / 1,2,6,8,9,10,11

Tri 2,8,/ 1,2,6,8,9,10,11 / 1,2,6,8,9,10,11 ....if not too costly ...lol

Super 2,8,/ 1,2,6,8,9,10,11 / 1,2,6,8,9,10,11 / all....if not too costly ...lol

Anyone interested in talking about this race ...pipe in ....never would advise a tail ,,,just posting for the hell of it ...