PoliticoPundit 2010 MLB Angles Thread #1

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Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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Time to haul out some data for potential use during these final ten weeks of MLB

Angles listed by #, with the initials of the creator (Barman or ScottL) noted

This thread concept started last year and proved to be hunky dory fun

If anyone wishes to "add an angle", please provide some accurate backing and I'll periodically update the Master List

Angles which take a turn reverting to center will be noted as such

RED FONT posts will be used to bring attention to an Angle which is in play on a given day.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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#1 - (July 22) Rays entered 2010 with a record of 30-2 in Game #2 of a Home Series if they did not win Game #1 by at least 4 Runs.

This season they are 8-3 in same role, for a current run of 38-5

SL

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#2 - (July 22) NYMets are 9-5 Home off a Home game if they've lost at least 2 straight, going back to July 8, 2009. On that day they were 12-1 in same role for a currently combined 21-6

SL

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#3 - (July 22) LAAngels entered season 53-14 After 2+Losses.

Started this season with a tough 2-7 in same role, thanks largely to a seven game loss streak on the road. But they've since rallied back with a 10-2 in this spot for 12-8 ytd and 65-23 overall.

SL

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#4 - (July 22) SFGiants are 3-121 since 8/06/08 after tallying 8+ runs in consecutive games.

SL

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#5 - (July 22) WashingtonNats playing Away After Scoring 5+ in previous (any) game are a meager 5-12 this season. Toss out a season ending 3-0 last October (meaningless series at ATL) and they're 10-25 in same role last season. Combined 13-34 remains.

Bar

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#6 - (July 22) CLEIndians this season are 5-12 playing Away After AwayWin. Last season 8-21 in same role for a combined 13-33 current run

Bar

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#7 - (July 22) FLMarlins Florida since beginning of 2009 are 9-32 in Game 1 Home when graded at -1.5

Take it back through 2008 when they were 8-17 in this role and that's a 17-49 current run

#7b - (June 17) FLMarlins are 7-9 SU in Game 1 Homes this season. Add in the five consecutive ending last season in same role and they're on a wimpy 7-14

Bar

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#8 - (July 22) BALOrioles this season playing Away After Scoring 6+ in an Away game are 5-5, built mainly on three they pulled in Texas last week.

They were 7-15 last season in same role and back to June 2008 they've got a 16-34 current run

Bar

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#9 - (July 22) CHWhitesox this season playing Home After Allowing 6+ in a home game are 8-4.

Last season in same role they were 21-8. Roll back further into May 2008 with a 15-6 mark and they've got a 44-18 current run

Bar

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#10 - (July 22) TBRays are just 9-8 since beginning of 2008 season when playing Home After an AwayWin. This number a bit notable since most Rays home games have them lined pretty solid chalk.

Bar

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#11 - (July 22) COL Rockies After a RoadWin are 8-12 vs the posted Total. Last season in same spot they were 10-26-1, for an 18-38-1 run.

Bar


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Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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Angles 3 and 5 are in play this evening at 8:05pm EDT

Current lines

ANA (playing After 2+ losses) +182 at Texas
MIL (fading Was) -139

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Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory
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so what's the play?
 

Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory
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Yankees scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 1st. When big chalk takes a 4-0 lead, they win something like almost always.

take the Yankees
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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2TeamParlay

HALO +182 at LittleRangers
BREW -139 vs Nat

Lay 10
Pays 38.49
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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#12 - CHW since May 15 are 15-6 After any loss.

#12b - CHW since Apr 20 are 10-1 After 2+ losses


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#12 in play this evening at Oakland with CHW +131
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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ADDING

HOSE +131 at Athletic $10
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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July 23 summary

2-1 (+3.10)
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Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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NOTE - Angle #4 should read "...Giants are 3-12..." (not 3-121)
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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For Saturday, July 24

Angles 3 and 5 are again in play

Play Angels and fade Nats
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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2TeamParlay

HALO +113 at LittleRangers
BREW -129 vs Nat

Lay 8
Pays 22.25
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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Straights

REDBIRD +122 at Bear $5

Modest angle with Cubs on a desultory 4-18 run After Any Win

BRAVE -108 at Fish $4

The ATL is on a 19-7 run After Any Loss
 

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Just checked in for the first time in a couple days. Good idea Bar. Note that Angel Angle is better off EXACTLY 2 Losses [now 46-14] than 2+ Losses [63-24 but only 11-10 this year due to a horrid streak].

Today:


Kendrick was sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley and immediately called back up to start today when Moyer was injured. Unfortunately for Kyle, Manuel put him in a day game where he's a horrid 1-10, as opposed to pitching him at night when he's 32-13. PHI is 17-27 in Game #2 of a Home Series off a Win. COL is 21-10 in Game 2 of a Series, and 11-0 when Ubaldo starts after they lose.

LAD is 32-10 at Home if below 500 in their previous 5 Games. Mets have lost their last 11 not started by Santana, so hopefully they will not change their Evil Ways baby!

I fortunately laid off OAK last night due to a HOT Buerhle and they lost. But OAK has now won their last 15 Home Series before a Road Trip. Their record in these Games is 43-19. CSOX are 4-23 on the AL Road after a Win over an AL Team.

In tonight's NL ATL is 8-0 this year when Medlen throws at Night and ATL is 9-1 in Game #2 of a Series after allowing 6+ Runs. Sanchez for FLA was the starter vs Ubaldo when Street blew the game earlier this week. Make up time! WASH is 27-83 in Game #2 of a Road Series including 16-59 off a Loss since 2006. I didn't cap the AL night games yet.
 

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CLE has won 18 straight Home Games vs TB since 2005.

SEA is my Fruitcake Play of the Day since there are so many in this forum. Fight in the dugout last night between SEA manager and player. There is an unwritten rule in MLB that when the manager is involved in an altercation with a player or GM it indicates the team has bottomed out and therefore must now for no reason whatsoever win 14 of its next 15 Games :)
 

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Overnight Bite for Sunday, July 25

2TeamParlay

CHW +130 at Athletic (Angle #12 + Oakland is 1-8 in the nine starts by D Braden since his Perfecto in early May)
STL -116 vs Bear (Fading Cubs on what will become Angle #13 if they fall....aka "Cubs After Any Win")

Lay 8
Pays 26.26
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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REMINDER that the prevalent notion with any listed "Angle" is that it purports at least a modicum of extra value which should then be weighed against the actual game price in play.

ie....If it looks strong, but still costs -180, it may not be a good investment.

But if it looks strong and can be played out at -120 or better, than it's likely worth at least an extra look
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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July 24 summary

3-1 (+21.25)

MTD 5-2 (+24.35)
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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ADDING for Sunday, July 25

REDLEG -1.5 (+140) at Astro $5
SNAKE +137 vs Giant $5

Giants essentially in same spot as Angle 3, in that they've notched 17 in past two games and we gotta figure that Lincecum is overpriced
Reds are 9-9 in past 18 vs LH starters with all nine wins by 2+ runs and that includes a healthy pasting of WandRod and the Astros.
Most recently, they're 6-2 in same role
 

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