Carolina has beaten the 1 seed and the 3 seed. Pit beat beat the 5seed and 2nd seed. Carolina has beaten the tougher teams. When Boston beat Montreal 4-0, and Carl beat NJ in 7 games , little would give a chance that Carl beat the Bruins. This team so far seems destined to reach the Cup, they stole gm 7 against NJ trailing 3-2 with 90 seconds left and won in regulation time. Then they take a fresh Boston team 7 games and win in it overtime.
Pit beat Phil in 6 and Was in 7. Both Phil and Was were not reguarded as good defensive teams. Pitts power play was good in both these series , otherwise they lose. The Pens will likely get more powerplay chances since the NHL would want Pitt in the final for better tv ratings. Pit won two games against Washington on fluke goals where they were directed off Cap defencemen into the net.
These teams played 4 times this year both teams won twice. But Carolina won the last two when both teams were on hot streaks.
This is a tough series to pick. It could go down right to the wire, game 7 to be decieded. Pitt has the better offence but Carolina has the better goalie and defence. Gonchar is hurting for Pittsburgh defence. If he,s not 100 percent , this is a huge advantage for Carl. The last two times Carl reach the semifinals, they won and went on too the Stanley Cup.Once winning the Cup and losing once to Detroit. Many of these players on this current team played then.
I don,t expect this will be a high scoring games like when Pit played Phi and Was. My lean is Carl in 7 . But the better play would be Carl +1.5 games in this series.