Oz's NCAAB thread...

[OzCap]

Boring title...

Those that know me from my statf0x (is that a swear word here?) days (about 10 years ago) and some other smaller forums will vouch for me, but I have been capping and doing stats analysis for about 15 years now, I am not going to brag about huge %'s and units, but my methods are typically profitable and I will only post the better ones here, so good luck to all... My better sports are Aussie Rules, College BBall, Baseball and NFL.

Without any further ado...

My lines are typically 5Dimes/Pinny/Bookmaker - so mainstream lines. My units are 0.5% of bankroll (so a 200 unit bankroll) and I put my money where my mouth is...

1 Unit on Pepperdine (-1.5) @ $1.952
1.25 Unit on Wake Forest UNDER (156.5) @ $1.952

Will start tracking after results are in.

Good luck
Oz

 

[Eccocide]

Welcome Oz! What does your unit size per play range from? Thx.

 

[OzCap]

Min 0.25 units - Max 5 Units. Typically 0.5-2.5 (about 85% of my bets sit in that range)

 

[Eccocide]

Tnx Oz. GL Tonight and throughout the season!

 

[indiana]

O/cap...........welcome to the RX..........sure you will enjoy...........good luck with all your plays............indy

 

[OzCap]

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut...

1 Unit on Pepperdine (-1.5) @ $1.952 - WIN
1.25 Unit on Wake Forest UNDER (156.5) @ $1.952 - WIN

2-0 and +2.14 units.

Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
2-0 (100.0%)
+2.14 units (2.25 units wagered; 95.2% ROI; 1.07% ROC)

 

[OzCap]

So far I only see one game I like, Drexel with points over Miami. I am going to put 1.5 units on DREXEL plus points, but I am going to patient with placing my wager. I see value in anything above 8 points, but remember that Miami is a very public supported team/school and they are the favourite so there will be a lot of backing for them (currently receiving about 75% of the bets) so the line will continue to drift their way (I already watched it move a half point overnight). If they continue to hit Miami that line might move up further (which benefits the Drexel side of course), until such time as the books are not comfortable or some sharp money hits it on the Drexel side.

Why so picky? Well, an extra 0.5-1.5 points amounts to 1-2% improved return long term so it is worth being patient when you can.

In a nut shell...I am putting half down now and will put the other half down if the line moves back to 9 or closer to game time if it continues to drift in my favor.

0.75 Units on DREXEL (+9.5) @ $1.952
0.75 Units on DREXEL (??) @ $

Hope all that waffling makes sense.

Good luck
Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
2-0 (100.0%)
+2.14 units (2.25 units wagered; 95.2% ROI; 1.07% ROC)[/QUOTE]

 

[Eccocide]

Good calls yesterday oz

 

[OzCap]

Ok, not going to get greedy, going to take the other half of my bet now...

0.75 Units on DREXEL (+9.5) @ $1.952
0.75 Units on DREXEL (+10.5) @ $1.952

Anyone jumping in now will get all of it at a significantly better line.

Good luck
Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
2-0 (100.0%)
+2.14 units (2.25 units wagered; 95.2% ROI; 1.07% ROC)

 

[OzCap]

0.75 Units on DREXEL (+9.5) @ $1.952
0.75 Units on DREXEL (+10.5) @ $1.952 - LOSS

Oh....I forgot to mention that was the HALFTIME line...(kidding). Drexel was awful. 0-1 and -1.5 units.

Good luck
Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
2-1 (66.7%)
+0.64 units (3.75 units wagered; 17.1% ROI; 0.32% ROC)

 

[OzCap]

One more play:

0.75 Units on TEXAS/IOWA UNDER (148) @ $1.952

Good luck
Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
2-1 (66.7%)
+0.64 units (3.75 units wagered; 17.1% ROI; 0.32% ROC)

 

[OzCap]

0.75 Units on TEXAS/IOWA UNDER (148) @ $1.952 - WIN

Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
3-1 (75.0%)
+1.35 units (4.5 units wagered; 30.1% ROI; 0.68% ROC)

 

[oatiko]

nice job bro. keep it up!

 

[OzCap]

Lots of plays today, but need to get them in a few at a time...

0.5 Units S CAROLINA/CHARLOTTE UNDER (136) @ $1.952

GL!
Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
3-1 (75.0%)
+1.35 units (4.5 units wagered; 30.1% ROI; 0.68% ROC)

 

[OzCap]

Lots of plays today, but need to get them in a few at a time...

0.5 Units S CAROLINA/CHARLOTTE UNDER (136) @ $1.952


Adding (spread plays):
1.25 Units on YOUNGSTOWN STATE (+10) @ $1.98
1.25 Units on ORAL ROBERTS (-2) @ $1.952
1.25 Units on IDAHO STATE (+13) @ $1.971
1 Unit on KANSAS STATE (-2) @ $1.952

Will probably have a play late today with the Pitt game (midnight tip-off in Hawaii, just want to watch the line moves through the day, so far I have already missed 1.5 points by waking up late... )

GL!
Oz

--------------
YTD (2014)
--------------
3-1 (75.0%)
+1.35 units (4.5 units wagered; 30.1% ROI; 0.68% ROC)

 

[Eccocide]

GL Oz!

 

[Eccocide]

I'm going to come along for the ride with you...when does Aussie rules football run? Lol

 

[OzCap]

Lol...you got a few months, will roll around in April.

Hope it is a good ride for you, sometimes the laws of small numbers can make you look like a genius or a completely idiot

 

[Eccocide]

Lol okay cool, I'll put it on my calendar. I'm sure the ride will be fine....bumps are expected on the way to any destination!!

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight my friend!!!!