Right now without digging deep into matchups I'd say yes but think it will be much closer than this game. Ultimately I think atl defense too small and dal will be able to repeatedly do what Seattle did on their opening drive where they bled the clock and scored a td. Atl didn't even finish their 1st possession until the 2nd qrtr, unlike sea I think Dallas is capable of doing that all game and really taking the air out of the ball. IMO the atl offense much tougher to deal with than a jordyless packers so while I think Dallas can control possession much the same in both games I think atl offense more capable of matching dal scores even with limited possessions. Not sure I'd be thrilled laying more than a fg in that one.
I think atl presents a few more challenges than pack so I'm not as confident but do lean Dallas to win as well.
Thanks man, for whatever reason feels like I have had a really good grasp of things for a big part of this season. Trying to enjoy and capitalize as much as possible seeing how I know that never last in this sport. Lol..
kc-1 (1x)...obviously I'm looking for middle here needing pit+7.5 to cash teaser but make no mistake I like the chiefs, the teaser was just playing the number not my lean on the game, I don't think there much chance kc wins by more than a td so I could sit back and collect on what's a really high percentage play imo. I'm not in play it safe mode, I'm in push for as much profit as I can get mode so gonna try and pick up a unit from each team in this one as I think this the only competitive game this weekend (if line ever flips to pit being favs there decent chance I add another play and tease kc with the over)..
could a case be made steelers the better team? Sure it could as no denying they have the 3 best offensive players that will be in this game. That said kc a well rounded, well coached group with plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball. While Alex smith will never be mistaken for the hall of famer Big Ben is he has played some of his best football in the playoffs where he has a 11 to 1 td/Int ratio and sports a 99 passer rating in his postseason career. For my money I think Andy Reid the better coach and his impact is never greater than when his team has a extra week to prepare, Reid is something crazy like 19-2 including 3-0 in playoffs with the extra week! I give kc a little more than the standard 3 for homefield at arrowhead which a extreamly tough place to play and it not like Big Ben and co are known for their stellar road play.
IMO getting kc in this spot laying less than a fg is pretty generous and only possible because much like the pack the Steelers are the public darlings on a "hot streak", pit winning streak even less impressive than gb's when you look at list of bums they been beating. I must have missed the memo that says teams on winning streaks never lose. I believe this thinking stems from a stretch of NFC wild card teams that were hot coming in making it all the way but in reality that hasn't been the norm over the years as teams coming into the playoffs on long win streaks don't fair any better than teams who struggle down the stretch.
could a case be made steelers the better team? Sure it could as no denying they have the 3 best offensive players that will be in this game. That said kc a well rounded, well coached group with plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball. While Alex smith will never be mistaken for the hall of famer Big Ben is he has played some of his best football in the playoffs where he has a 11 to 1 td/Int ratio and sports a 99 passer rating in his postseason career. For my money I think Andy Reid the better coach and his impact is never greater than when his team has a extra week to prepare, Reid is something crazy like 19-2 including 3-0 in playoffs with the extra week! I give kc a little more than the standard 3 for homefield at arrowhead which a extreamly tough place to play and it not like Big Ben and co are known for their stellar road play.
IMO getting kc in this spot laying less than a fg is pretty generous and only possible because much like the pack the Steelers are the public darlings on a "hot streak", pit winning streak even less impressive than gb's when you look at list of bums they been beating. I must have missed the memo that says teams on winning streaks never lose. I believe this thinking stems from a stretch of NFC wild card teams that were hot coming in making it all the way but in reality that hasn't been the norm over the years as teams coming into the playoffs on long win streaks don't fair any better than teams who struggle down the stretch.
Don't get me wrong much like anything else the fact Reid's teams have been stellar off a bye his whole career doesn't exactly mean they can beat the Steelers today. I do think it speaks to how good a coach Reid is even tho the general consensus typically doesn't look at him in a very favorable light.
Glad you suggested this! As I mentioned I'm far from a expert at predicting line movement, I set my number and play when I see value, get myself into trouble sometimes trying to hold out for a better line. Luckily I'm big on knowing my weaknesses so when I had chance to grab kc-1 I took it assuming there was a good chance you had better idea where line would go than I did! Thanks to your post I got kc at least a point better than I would have otherwise!
There no way kc is taking on bunch of "public" money right? Majority love steelers pretty much every week and rarely trust kc, I don't believe for one second chiefs the popular side. Both dogs today will be the overwhelmingly popular sides, folks can't get enough of these "hot" teams with the big name qbs. Personally square/sharp stuff doesn't mean anything to me as I think the last 15 years or so the line has blurred as everyone has gotten access to all this junk and now you see tons of wanna be sharps taking bad plays just for sake of trying to be "sharp"! lol.. cap them and Bet them how I roll, leave all that line movement and sharp square crap to others 
Im all for the you can never have too much info or angles and while I still notice it all I don't think it any more than white noise now days, it sometimes still a battle for me to ignore as all of us who been around a decade or more been programmed at least to a extent to notice such things and not wanting to be on the "square" side. I do think it been at least a decade since those theories were relevant in NFL. Think some of the principles still held true for another 5 years or so after w less wagered sports like college hoops. IMO now it all pretty much just noise as once everyone figures things out then they not things any longer!!
