Took little bit of a slide the last 2 weeks of regular season but still finished up 29-20 +12.65u on posted plays which not to shabby. Most years I fare pretty well in the playoffs so figured I would just keep the entire post season in one thread. I havnt been posting my teasers up to this point as I like to just track my straight up ats record however I think they a valuable weapon in the NFL and even more so in playoff time as lines get incredibly tight so I will start posting them. I will start posting plays as I make them just wanted to start the thread. Here's to everyone sticking it to the man this postseason :toast:
Texans-3.5 (1x)... I'll admit laying the hook feels a little scary w Brock Asswiler as your starting qb but I don't buy points as I'm a firm believer long run the juice not worth the squeeze so I will live or die on the spread they offering me.
Hou flat out dominated this game in Mexico City with Brock at qb, the glaring change is obviously when hou dominated that game they did so against raiders MVP qb who pulled that Carr magic and turned what should have been a raider loss into one of many improbable victories. Forget the fact raiders have no chance for those kind of 4th qrtr heroics and let's focus on the fact in that game Hou defense had to account for a very good oak passing attack and still held the raiders to 30 rushing yards on 20 attempts! Now this very good Texan d can stack the box so how much success will this oak run game have without a passing threat? A game carr played Texans held a 22-16 1st down advantage, out rushed oak by damn near 100 yards, ran 72 plays to 51 for oak, while holding the ball for more than 37 minutes, and had 5 red zone trips. Oh did I mention raiders are also down their starting tackle so their rookie qb making his 1st start will have clowny breathing down his backside all game?
Brock getting a second lease on life and call me crazy but against this raider defense I think he just might hold his own. Miller rested and ready to once again run all over this porous oak run defense so the more experienced qb will also have the benefit of the stronger rushing attack, playing at home where despite his many struggles lead his team to a 7-1 record. Raiders had their chance to prove to us last week with a 1st round bye on the line that they had some heart and were gonna fight without their leader and what did they do? They got embarrassed and lost their was to be replacement qb. Great season raiders, it's a shame how it ended with your leaders broken leg, but stick a fork in them until next season they done. 22-13 Texans
2 team 6 point teaser (2x)
oak/hou under 43
seattle-2
Expect both teams in Houston to have ultra conservative game plans with a ton of rushing attempts in a game both coaches be thrilled to shorten. As long as we can avoid multiple defensive and special teams tds I don't foresee this game reaching 40. 20 points will be enough to win and I can't imagine both teams hit that number..
even this lessor version of the seachickens seems like the no-brainer of the playoffs to win a game. I mean what's to say? Lions record vs winning teams in staffords career is something like 5-48 (give or take), lions havnt won outside all season, poor record in cold. Oh and they taking this sparkling resume to the toughest place to play in the NFL against a team who doesn't lose at home!! I'll pay to see them beat me and this won't be my only Seattle play of some type. I don't think Seattle long lived for this postseason but they got a great draw here against a lions team who not even capable of exploiting sea bad oline as they among worst in the league getting after the qb..
Hou flat out dominated this game in Mexico City with Brock at qb, the glaring change is obviously when hou dominated that game they did so against raiders MVP qb who pulled that Carr magic and turned what should have been a raider loss into one of many improbable victories. Forget the fact raiders have no chance for those kind of 4th qrtr heroics and let's focus on the fact in that game Hou defense had to account for a very good oak passing attack and still held the raiders to 30 rushing yards on 20 attempts! Now this very good Texan d can stack the box so how much success will this oak run game have without a passing threat? A game carr played Texans held a 22-16 1st down advantage, out rushed oak by damn near 100 yards, ran 72 plays to 51 for oak, while holding the ball for more than 37 minutes, and had 5 red zone trips. Oh did I mention raiders are also down their starting tackle so their rookie qb making his 1st start will have clowny breathing down his backside all game?
Brock getting a second lease on life and call me crazy but against this raider defense I think he just might hold his own. Miller rested and ready to once again run all over this porous oak run defense so the more experienced qb will also have the benefit of the stronger rushing attack, playing at home where despite his many struggles lead his team to a 7-1 record. Raiders had their chance to prove to us last week with a 1st round bye on the line that they had some heart and were gonna fight without their leader and what did they do? They got embarrassed and lost their was to be replacement qb. Great season raiders, it's a shame how it ended with your leaders broken leg, but stick a fork in them until next season they done. 22-13 Texans
2 team 6 point teaser (2x)
oak/hou under 43
seattle-2
Expect both teams in Houston to have ultra conservative game plans with a ton of rushing attempts in a game both coaches be thrilled to shorten. As long as we can avoid multiple defensive and special teams tds I don't foresee this game reaching 40. 20 points will be enough to win and I can't imagine both teams hit that number..
even this lessor version of the seachickens seems like the no-brainer of the playoffs to win a game. I mean what's to say? Lions record vs winning teams in staffords career is something like 5-48 (give or take), lions havnt won outside all season, poor record in cold. Oh and they taking this sparkling resume to the toughest place to play in the NFL against a team who doesn't lose at home!! I'll pay to see them beat me and this won't be my only Seattle play of some type. I don't think Seattle long lived for this postseason but they got a great draw here against a lions team who not even capable of exploiting sea bad oline as they among worst in the league getting after the qb..
1 straight, 1 teaser, 1 parlay to start the playoffs 3-0 +400. Happy as can be but sadly nowhere to go but down now, lol. Or maybe we can keep the good times rolling!
Strange weekend to kick things off I honestly don't think we see one upset, fish the only dog I like with the points but seriously doubt they win, I have that pit by 7...
I think folks fooling themselves pretending this gmen team is similar to the crappiest teams to ever win the SB squads, this one is even a bigger fraud who bottom 3rd in sack percentage! They just had the good fortune of building their record off the weak, don't let yourself be told playing in the overhyped east means something, look at the times gmen reeled off win streaks and tell me who they played? Much like I said with Houston today how I'd tip my cap if some rookie qb in his 1st start beat me, if this nyg group of pretenders goes to Lambeau and beats a red hot discount double bitch (as you can see I'm not a Rodgers fan I just respect talent) then I'll happily pay to see it and tip my cap. So only question left is how I go about playing those games and to take a look at the totals which I will do sometime well before kick..
Strange weekend to kick things off I honestly don't think we see one upset, fish the only dog I like with the points but seriously doubt they win, I have that pit by 7...
I think folks fooling themselves pretending this gmen team is similar to the crappiest teams to ever win the SB squads, this one is even a bigger fraud who bottom 3rd in sack percentage! They just had the good fortune of building their record off the weak, don't let yourself be told playing in the overhyped east means something, look at the times gmen reeled off win streaks and tell me who they played? Much like I said with Houston today how I'd tip my cap if some rookie qb in his 1st start beat me, if this nyg group of pretenders goes to Lambeau and beats a red hot discount double bitch (as you can see I'm not a Rodgers fan I just respect talent) then I'll happily pay to see it and tip my cap. So only question left is how I go about playing those games and to take a look at the totals which I will do sometime well before kick..
Mia+13 (1.5x)...maybe the points are bait and I'm a sucker. Or maybe Steelers are once again getting far too much respect, after all we hear every year how they SB contenders and I sure don't recall seeing them even sniffing the big game recently. Maybe phins again being undervalued w Matt Moore at the helm as they have been since he took over (last week against pats notwithstanding), I continue to say this wasn't a downgrade tannehill may have more upside but right this minute I think Moore brings just as much to this team. After all the fish only converted 36.9% of their 3rd downs on the season but the last 3 weeks that number up to 47%! 22.7 ppg on the season but that number 27 ppg the last 3 weeks. Maybe I wasn't so wrong about there not being a drop off when Moore took over! Maybe ya recall when I said Moore threw a better deep ball and was willing to take shots? Fish 11 yards per completion on the season, that number up 2 yards per the last 3 weeks! Is this line really this high if tannehill was playing?
Hardest part of this game to factor is the weather imo. This will be the 1st subfreezing temps fish will have played in this year and it gonna be really cold w a nasty wind chill. I believe when they played in buf and ny temps were mid 30s but they fared just fine in those games. I'll be 1st to admit this a whole different ball park of cold and it basically impossible to know how they handle it. At the same time these temps and more importantly wind don't lend themselves to a game Mia gonna get blown out of, sets up as a old school slugfest with these very good rushing attacks taking aim at two suspect rush defenses..
i keep reading how ajayi won't run all over steelers like last meeting but I havnt heard one compelling case why this weak run defense will all a sudden stop phins excellent rushing attack? Was it the weak Ravens run offense going for 120 2 weeks ago, or the vaunted browns rushing for over 2 bills last week the signs of Steelers improvements ppl needed to see? Does the fact steelers bottom half 3rd down defense has allowed a even higher conversion rate the last month speak to how they gonna keep phins from movin the chains? Hate to go back to this saying but if steelers can all a sudden flip a switch and stop this Mia rushing attack I'll tip my cap cause I don't buy it..
im not here to say the good times on the ground will be all phins to enjoy. The fish sport a rather pathetic run defense themselves and I fully expect Bell to do a ton of work in this one. Hell the game sets up for a slugfest featuring a couple awesome backs and good olines churning out yards on the ground. This type of game is not conducive to cover this kind of huge number. Even in ideal weather conditions I'm willing to give Steelers offense the proper respect and say the could very well put up 31-34 points against Mia. That output means I just need fish right around 20 to have incredibly high chance to cover! What about either of these teams says Miami can't put up 20 in this game? Call me crazy but imho this line should be way closer to 7 so obviously I see lots of value in this number.
Hardest part of this game to factor is the weather imo. This will be the 1st subfreezing temps fish will have played in this year and it gonna be really cold w a nasty wind chill. I believe when they played in buf and ny temps were mid 30s but they fared just fine in those games. I'll be 1st to admit this a whole different ball park of cold and it basically impossible to know how they handle it. At the same time these temps and more importantly wind don't lend themselves to a game Mia gonna get blown out of, sets up as a old school slugfest with these very good rushing attacks taking aim at two suspect rush defenses..
i keep reading how ajayi won't run all over steelers like last meeting but I havnt heard one compelling case why this weak run defense will all a sudden stop phins excellent rushing attack? Was it the weak Ravens run offense going for 120 2 weeks ago, or the vaunted browns rushing for over 2 bills last week the signs of Steelers improvements ppl needed to see? Does the fact steelers bottom half 3rd down defense has allowed a even higher conversion rate the last month speak to how they gonna keep phins from movin the chains? Hate to go back to this saying but if steelers can all a sudden flip a switch and stop this Mia rushing attack I'll tip my cap cause I don't buy it..
im not here to say the good times on the ground will be all phins to enjoy. The fish sport a rather pathetic run defense themselves and I fully expect Bell to do a ton of work in this one. Hell the game sets up for a slugfest featuring a couple awesome backs and good olines churning out yards on the ground. This type of game is not conducive to cover this kind of huge number. Even in ideal weather conditions I'm willing to give Steelers offense the proper respect and say the could very well put up 31-34 points against Mia. That output means I just need fish right around 20 to have incredibly high chance to cover! What about either of these teams says Miami can't put up 20 in this game? Call me crazy but imho this line should be way closer to 7 so obviously I see lots of value in this number.
I forgot to even mention the coaching advantage phins enjoy as I think gase is on his way to becoming talked about in the upper echelon of coaches, do I even have to mention what a horrific in game tactician Tomlin is? As Steelers great terry bradshaw says he more Pom pom waver than great coach 
Your opinion means jack shit to me, which all that garbage you spewing is opinion. Steelers conveniently improved when they got to the charmin soft part of their schedule nothing more. If you think playing browns twice constitutes becoming a top defense you know less bout this shit than it initially appears when I see your crap post.
i hardly even brought up the 1st meeting as any type of factor so try reading whatever you feel like commenting on 1st., clown..
Hahahaha overthinker. I'm a big fan brotha haha. Great writeups. Very much appreciated. I'm on miami and green bay myself. People gave me shit in other posts when I said the Packers would win by double digits. I see a 27-13 type of ball game. Will post my reasoning in a few. Best of luck!
Appreciate the kind words my man. I tend to agree with you bout pack, I havnt bought this nyg team all season and still don't. They nowhere near the team that won sb's like ppl want to believe. Those teams got after the qb, this gmen team has one of lowest sack percentages in the playoffs! Don't care how solid your secondary is if Rodgers has all day you know what time it is.. the nyg offense or lack there of is astonishing to me, I know Eli a scrub and this coach no better but how can they be this bad with those allotment of weapons? I also think they have had a run game sitting on their bench all year in Perkins who they have finally started using (just more examples of macadoo's incompetence). I have gb ml in a parlay I didn't post and think your double digit prediction will be closer than anyone calling for nyg to win.
Yea absolutely, think I dedicated paragraph to that being my biggest concern. As mentioned they played well in their 2 coldest games this season to this point but those were much milder than today.. w the heated fields, benches, technology I tend to think this less of a factor than it used to be but can still be a issue.. from my experience in miserable cold it mostly a test of will power and resolve so hopefully phins are mentally tough enough for the challenge. Gl to you as well!!
