Odds to win the Super Bowl

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By Doug Upstone of 3DailyWinners

Monday morning ventured over to one of my favorite sportsbooks and viewed what are potentially the best futures bets to make for picking the Super Bowl winner. Came to two conclusion, Buy or Save for Super Bowl props.

Though New England and Atlanta were clearly the class of the NFL, both have flaws that can be exploited by the right opponent. Last season New Orleans and Indianapolis were far ahead of the field in terms of how they played and talent. Though the Patriots Tom Brady and the Falcons Matt Ryan have impeccable home records, last year was the first time since 1993 that both top seeds made it to the Super Bowl. Are they a bad bet, no, just consider other possibilities.

AFC

New England +125 –The best quarterback is matched with the best coach in the NFL and this twosome had created enough mayhem; the All-State guy would be envious. Brady is 27-1 at Foxboro in last 28 starts and has stepped up as more a leader this year, because talent-wise, there is at least three teams that have better personnel. As bad as the Patriots defense looked most of the season, they have allowed 54 points (5 ½ games) since the second half of Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit. - BUY

Pittsburgh +600 – The Steelers offense finally showed life the final two weeks of the regular season against mediocre competition, but at least Ben Roethlisberger and teammates awoke from slumber. The defense will be there, which is a given, yet reservations come to the surface. The offensive line has been a mess all year, which is the main reason Pittsburgh average 4.1 yards per carry (18th). Big Ben has been under even greater duress dropping back to pass and could throw a pick or two or fumble. Another negative factor is the Steelers defense just doesn’t matchup with Patriots – SAVE for Super Bowl props

Indianapolis +2000 –Has any quarterback been asked to do more than Peyton Manning this year? Manning finally showed he was human, throwing a volume of interceptions, playing with receivers he hardly knew for a time. Take away Manning and the Colts defensive ends and roster comparison between Indy and Seattle becomes a lively debate. Nonetheless, the run defense has gotten better and their weaknesses are less likely to be exposed by either of the higher seeds making them a small play as long shot. -PLAY

Kansas City +4000 – The Chiefs have all the right ingredients to be surprise playoff team. They run the ball effectively; Matt Cassel protects the pigskin and has touchdown-machine receiver in Dwayne Bowe. The defense is better than average and the special teams have explosive element, but will coach Todd Haley let his ego overtake game? Charley Weis isn’t leaving K.C. barbeque because he likes Florida flounder. These Chiefs are not to be trusted yet. - SAVE for Super Bowl props

Baltimore +1400 – This was my Super Bowl pick back in August, but I’ve not seen Ravens team that deserves serious consideration all year despite 12-4 record. The defense isn’t as stellar as in seasons past, particularly at the cornerback position and the offensive game plans have been more conservative than Rush Limbaugh. If for some reason Baltimore became more aggressive on offense (throwing 50 yard bombs is not being aggressive, more wishful thinking in manner applied) in forcing the ball down the field with pass AND running the ball like they did against New Orleans, they would have real shot taking Lombardi trophy home. A leopard doesn’t change spots. - SAVE for Super Bowl props

N.Y. Jets +2800 – If this was a debate or trashing talking tournament, the Jets would be a bigger favorite than New England. Unfortunately this is about performance on the field and the Flyboys wish they could play as well as their lips move. - SAVE for Super Bowl props

NFC

Atlanta +550 –It’s hard to find fault with the Falcons. Matt Ryan is 20-2 at the Georgia Dome, coach Mike Smith never gives up on the running game and the defense showed late in the season they can play more than one style and be successful. Should Atlanta be playing in the Super Bowl, yes, but there is this nagging feeling they are like the Atlanta Braves from the 90’s, just not quite good enough. Still a worthy wager. - PLAY

Chicago +850 – The Bears epitomize the modern NFL. In yesteryear, you had to be solid on offense, defense and special teams. Today, if you are exceptional in two of three and at least ordinary in the other, you are division champion material. Chicago has tremendous defense and special teams; however the offense is a head-shaker. Can Jay Cutler and the offensive line really play three top notch games against quality opponents? SAVE for Super Bowl props

Philadelphia +1000 – In the later stages of November, the Eagles looked like legit Super Bowl material. Since that time Philadelphia has not, basically playing less than one quarter of memorable football the past three weeks. Michael Vick has slowed down as defenses are not breaking contain and the hits are piling up on his body. The defense doesn’t get to the quarterback without blitzing heavily and the Eagle stop troops have conceded 24 or more points in seven of last 10 games. - SAVE for Super Bowl props

Seattle +10000 – Really? Let’s handle it this way, since the playoff format was adjusted to 12 teams in 1990, there has been three teams that were double digit underdogs in the Wild Card round and all three were visiting teams. - SAVE for Super Bowl props

New Orleans + 900 –The Saints are not as good as last year, the running game is less effective and Drew Brees has not had the laser intensity of a season ago. However, New Orleans reminds me of Alabama in the Capital One Bowl, when this team decides to play, not sure who will knock them off. – PLAY

Green Bay +1100 – Only three teams in the playoffs were ranked in the Top 10 in points scored and allowed and the Packers were one of them. (Atlanta and New England were the others) Green Bay has the right elements to make a run, not unlike the New York Giants from a few years ago. The Packers have elite quarterback, stingy defense that can rush the passer and force turnovers and play well on the road. - PLAY
 

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