Not sure if the question was pose here or on social media about the significance of beating the line. Regardless I'll simply share as I find this information to be of value.
Every sharp bettor knows the importance of getting the best possible number. Long term, beating the line consistently will provide better results. For example, in the NFL you would prefer having +3.5 than +3. Why? its said the odds of NFL games landing at +3 is 16%. So long term winning results will be inevitable. CLV (closing line value) is determined by the number a game is played against the closing number. Naturally key numbers as the aforementioned 3 in football holds greater value than say 12. This is why you will hear people bragging about this sort of stuff.
In baseball, hockey, or soccer the importance lies on the profit earned and saved with money lines. The evidence lies again on the ability to beat the CLV (closing line value). For example, everybody can relate to having a -151 ticket when their friend or preferred capper has -143.
What people need to understand is a sharp bettor is determined by their ability to win and get good numbers.
Every sharp bettor knows the importance of getting the best possible number. Long term, beating the line consistently will provide better results. For example, in the NFL you would prefer having +3.5 than +3. Why? its said the odds of NFL games landing at +3 is 16%. So long term winning results will be inevitable. CLV (closing line value) is determined by the number a game is played against the closing number. Naturally key numbers as the aforementioned 3 in football holds greater value than say 12. This is why you will hear people bragging about this sort of stuff.
In baseball, hockey, or soccer the importance lies on the profit earned and saved with money lines. The evidence lies again on the ability to beat the CLV (closing line value). For example, everybody can relate to having a -151 ticket when their friend or preferred capper has -143.
What people need to understand is a sharp bettor is determined by their ability to win and get good numbers.
You want the "to Win" amount on the ML to equal the risk amount of the PL, so if they win by exactly one goal, you push.
An easy way to figure it out -1's is to use a parlay calculator. Google that.
Type the ML into the calculator, and then adjust the bet amount until the bet amount and payout add up to your unit amount. The payout amount on the ML will be the risk amount of the PL.
Most -1's will be plus value, but for the ones that end up minus odds, just adjust the bet amounts accordingly to the odds. For example, if your unit amount was $100 and you came up with $70/$30 ML/PL distribution and the odds came out to -122, just times the $70 and $30 amounts by 1.22 to get it to a "to win" 1 unit scenario, rather than a "risk" 1 unit scenario.
Does that all make sense?
Here is an online calculator. http://sportsobjective.com/wordpress/?page_id=3167
Look forward to following your post this year, gentlemen.
