The "revenge factor" is a popular NFL narrative, but statistics suggest the team that lost the first game wins the rematch approximately 41.5% of the time in regular season divisional matchups. The team that wins the initial contest is more likely to be the stronger team and typically wins the rematch as well, though at a lower percentage than their initial win rate might imply. * Overall Tendency: Teams that win a first game against a divisional opponent win the second game about 58.5% of the time.
* Statistical Significance: One analysis found that any "revenge" impact on the point spread was not statistically significant (about -1.28 points per game difference, which could be due to chance 42% of the time).
* Betting Angles: The "revenge factor" is often discussed in fantasy sports and betting as a potential narrative, but the general consensus among analysts is that the better team usually prevails again, making the "hard to beat a team twice" saying more of a fallacy than a reliable betting trend.
This used to be, much discussed. At the very least we need to do a deep dive, into the "revenge" stats in the 2025 NFL.
A look at the standings seems to support "haves" and "have nots," which might suggest against revenge being real.
BOL 2 all
* Statistical Significance: One analysis found that any "revenge" impact on the point spread was not statistically significant (about -1.28 points per game difference, which could be due to chance 42% of the time).
* Betting Angles: The "revenge factor" is often discussed in fantasy sports and betting as a potential narrative, but the general consensus among analysts is that the better team usually prevails again, making the "hard to beat a team twice" saying more of a fallacy than a reliable betting trend.
This used to be, much discussed. At the very least we need to do a deep dive, into the "revenge" stats in the 2025 NFL.
A look at the standings seems to support "haves" and "have nots," which might suggest against revenge being real.
BOL 2 all
The revenge angle can be overplayed, especially when applied to all matchups of that variety.
Context matters here, though.
The OP of this current slide mentioned that in Big Games, with many such eyeballs watching it, the Revenging Avenger in both NCAA & NFL has been so hot right now.
I, and apparently others, have noticed it as well.
Context matters here, though.
The OP of this current slide mentioned that in Big Games, with many such eyeballs watching it, the Revenging Avenger in both NCAA & NFL has been so hot right now.
I, and apparently others, have noticed it as well.
Not about I want revenge. Teams that are close to even and lose learn more about themselves and their weaknesses. Gives them a smarter approach and ability to adjust. Doesn't guarantee anything. Sometimes a team is far superior but if theya re on a similar close lever its a big learning experienceRevenge matters in some situations, but not in playoff or other high importance games.
Funny when somebody says a team, say Oregon, is pumped up by revenge. They are playing for the goddam National Championship, so they were not going to go 100% but with the revenge, now they will?
Recap
Football
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
Records
Last year records for reference - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-642#post-14682606
This year records through 12/31/2025 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-696#post-14763915
Horses
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
Football
Gridiron Gold Sheet -- NFL Week 18.pdf
drive.google.com
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College Bowls Issue 4.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook January 3-4.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook Midweek Alert January 3-4.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook 2005 College Bowl Guide #2.pdf
drive.google.com
Pointwise January 3 - The Bowls #3.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Plays January 3.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Sweep January 3.pdf
drive.google.com
Totals Tipsheet #18.pdf
drive.google.com
Wise Guys Report #18.pdf
drive.google.com
Last year records for reference - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-642#post-14682606
This year records through 12/31/2025 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-696#post-14763915
Horses
Daily Racing Form - Fair Grounds - Sunday, January 4.pdf
drive.google.com
Daily Racing Form - Gulfstream Park - Sunday, January 4.pdf
drive.google.com
Daily Racing Form - Oaklawn Park - Sunday, January 4.pdf
drive.google.com
Recap
Football
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
Records
Last year records for reference - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-642#post-14682606
This year records through 12/31/2025 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-696#post-14763915
Horses
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
Football
Gold Sheet - NFL Week 19.pdf
drive.google.com
Gridiron Gold Sheet -- NFL Week 18.pdf
drive.google.com
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College Bowls Issue 4.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook January 3-4.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook Midweek Alert January 3-4.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook 2005 College Bowl Guide #2.pdf
drive.google.com
Pointwise January 3 - The Bowls #3.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Plays January 3.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Sweep January 3.pdf
drive.google.com
Totals Tipsheet #18.pdf
drive.google.com
Wise Guys Report #18.pdf
drive.google.com
Last year records for reference - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-642#post-14682606
This year records through 12/31/2025 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-696#post-14763915
Horses
Daily Racing Form - Aqueduct - Sunday, January 4.pdf
drive.google.com
Daily Racing Form - Fair Grounds - Sunday, January 4.pdf
drive.google.com
Daily Racing Form - Gulfstream Park - Sunday, January 4.pdf
drive.google.com
Daily Racing Form - Oaklawn Park - Sunday, January 4.pdf
drive.google.com
Daily Racing Form - Tampa Bay Downs - Sunday, January 4.pdf
drive.google.com
Henie Race Reports ECHR -- Gulfstream Park - Sunday, January 4th.pdf
drive.google.com
Daily Racing Report - Turf Paradise - Tuesday, January 6.pdf
drive.google.com
Newsletter Tracking (through 1/5/2026)
The records here will reflect the lines listed in the newsletters at the time the plays were published. This is for the rated plays, the high-ranking plays, and any type of play worth tracking. There’s no reason to keep track of every bottom-tier or “recommended” play; it’s not worth the work.
Sometimes the newsletters will cheat a little by claiming a different common or later line if it turns a loss into a push or otherwise boosts their record. I’ll usually be able to note what happened to explain the discrepancy.
I’ll also highlight particularly good or bad weekends or short-term runs. I will not include picks from newsletter issues that we don’t get in time.
Starting to color-code the hottest and coldest records. Usually just anything hitting/missing around 70% or more with a reasonable sample.
Best & Worst
Gold Sheet NCAA Tech Plays (14-3-0)
Playbook Awesome Angle (15-5-1)
Power Sweep Tech Play of the Week (9-4-0)
Bondi 2* NFL (2-8-0)
Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA (32-32-2)
NFL (32-19-1) (3-1 this week)
Bondi Bulletin (3rd-straight week we didn't see this one)
2* NCAA (6-3-0)
1* NCAA (10-16-0)
2* NFL (2-8-0)
1* NFL (8-12-0)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
"Top" play (1-0-0)
5* (6-8-1)
4* (7-8-0)
3* (8-7-0)
Upset pick (11-9-0)
Betcha Didn't Know (10-12-0)
Awesome Angle (15-5-1)
Incredible Stat (7-7-0)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (7-11-0)
4* (9-9-0)
3* (10-7-1)
Pointwise NCAA
1* (21-11-0)
2* (8-13-0) (4-0 run)
3* (6-9-0)
4* (18-14-0)
5* (19-18-1)
Pointwise NFL
2* (3-3-0)
3* (13-17-0)
4* (10-9-0)
5* (16-18-1)
Power Sweep NCAA
4* (9-12-1) (current streak 6-1)
3* (13-23-1)
2* (26-19-1)
Underdog Play of the Week (6-8-0)
Tech Play of the Week (9-4-0)
Revenge Play of the Week (6-6-0)
Situational Play of the Week (6-3-0)
Series Play of the Week (4-3-1)
Power Sweep NFL
4* (7-10-1)
3* (10-8-0)
2* (9-9-0)
3* o/u play (8-10-0)
Power Rating POW (0-0-1)
Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (20-19-1)
NCAA 4* (53-44-1)
NFL 4* (7-10-1)
Red Sheet (nothing again this week; previous weeks' records from another contributor)
90* (0-0-0)
89* (2-6-0)
88* (3-8-1)
NFL 88* (4-0-0)
Sports Reporter (missed most of the season of this one)
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (6-6-0)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (3-3-0)
Winning Points
NCAA 4* (0-0-0)
NCAA 3* (0-0-0)
NFL 4* (0-0-0)
NFL 3* (0-0-0)
King’s Totals Tipsheet (0-5 overall this week)
10* GOY (0-0-0)
3* (9-11-0)
2* (17-17-0)
1* (0-0-0)
Team Total of the Week
2* (17-14-1)
1* (2-3-0)
Gold Sheet NCAA (didn't see Gold Sheet this week)
Key Releases (18-27-1)
Priority Picks (16-15-0)
Tech Plays (14-3-0)
Gold Sheet NFL
Key Releases (27-22-1)
Priority Picks (18-16-0)
Tech Plays (7-9-0)
Powers' Ratings NCAA
(no actual best bets in his newsletter again this year)
Top Computer Play (5-9-1)
Inside the Press Box NCAA
Phil's Best Bets (27-38-0)
Phil's FCS Best Bets (5-3-0)
Computer Best Bets (30-30-1)
Computer FCS Best Bets (4-0-0)
Inside the Press Box NFL (nothing this week)
Phil’s Best Bets (23-22-0)
Computer Best Bets (0-0-0)
Feel free to point out any typos or grading errors
The records here will reflect the lines listed in the newsletters at the time the plays were published. This is for the rated plays, the high-ranking plays, and any type of play worth tracking. There’s no reason to keep track of every bottom-tier or “recommended” play; it’s not worth the work.
Sometimes the newsletters will cheat a little by claiming a different common or later line if it turns a loss into a push or otherwise boosts their record. I’ll usually be able to note what happened to explain the discrepancy.
I’ll also highlight particularly good or bad weekends or short-term runs. I will not include picks from newsletter issues that we don’t get in time.
Starting to color-code the hottest and coldest records. Usually just anything hitting/missing around 70% or more with a reasonable sample.
Best & Worst
Gold Sheet NCAA Tech Plays (14-3-0)
Playbook Awesome Angle (15-5-1)
Power Sweep Tech Play of the Week (9-4-0)
Bondi 2* NFL (2-8-0)
Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA (32-32-2)
NFL (32-19-1) (3-1 this week)
Bondi Bulletin (3rd-straight week we didn't see this one)
2* NCAA (6-3-0)
1* NCAA (10-16-0)
2* NFL (2-8-0)
1* NFL (8-12-0)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
"Top" play (1-0-0)
5* (6-8-1)
4* (7-8-0)
3* (8-7-0)
Upset pick (11-9-0)
Betcha Didn't Know (10-12-0)
Awesome Angle (15-5-1)
Incredible Stat (7-7-0)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (7-11-0)
4* (9-9-0)
3* (10-7-1)
Pointwise NCAA
1* (21-11-0)
2* (8-13-0) (4-0 run)
3* (6-9-0)
4* (18-14-0)
5* (19-18-1)
Pointwise NFL
2* (3-3-0)
3* (13-17-0)
4* (10-9-0)
5* (16-18-1)
Power Sweep NCAA
4* (9-12-1) (current streak 6-1)
3* (13-23-1)
2* (26-19-1)
Underdog Play of the Week (6-8-0)
Tech Play of the Week (9-4-0)
Revenge Play of the Week (6-6-0)
Situational Play of the Week (6-3-0)
Series Play of the Week (4-3-1)
Power Sweep NFL
4* (7-10-1)
3* (10-8-0)
2* (9-9-0)
3* o/u play (8-10-0)
Power Rating POW (0-0-1)
Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (20-19-1)
NCAA 4* (53-44-1)
NFL 4* (7-10-1)
Red Sheet (nothing again this week; previous weeks' records from another contributor)
90* (0-0-0)
89* (2-6-0)
88* (3-8-1)
NFL 88* (4-0-0)
Sports Reporter (missed most of the season of this one)
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (6-6-0)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (3-3-0)
Winning Points
NCAA 4* (0-0-0)
NCAA 3* (0-0-0)
NFL 4* (0-0-0)
NFL 3* (0-0-0)
King’s Totals Tipsheet (0-5 overall this week)
10* GOY (0-0-0)
3* (9-11-0)
2* (17-17-0)
1* (0-0-0)
Team Total of the Week
2* (17-14-1)
1* (2-3-0)
Gold Sheet NCAA (didn't see Gold Sheet this week)
Key Releases (18-27-1)
Priority Picks (16-15-0)
Tech Plays (14-3-0)
Gold Sheet NFL
Key Releases (27-22-1)
Priority Picks (18-16-0)
Tech Plays (7-9-0)
Powers' Ratings NCAA
(no actual best bets in his newsletter again this year)
Top Computer Play (5-9-1)
Inside the Press Box NCAA
Phil's Best Bets (27-38-0)
Phil's FCS Best Bets (5-3-0)
Computer Best Bets (30-30-1)
Computer FCS Best Bets (4-0-0)
Inside the Press Box NFL (nothing this week)
Phil’s Best Bets (23-22-0)
Computer Best Bets (0-0-0)
Feel free to point out any typos or grading errors
Pointwise January 8-14.pdf
drive.google.com
Recap
Football
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
Records
Last year records for reference - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-642#post-14682606
This year records through 1/05/2026 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-698#post-14768479
Football
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox College Bowl Issue 5.pdf
drive.google.com
Pointwise January 8-14.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Plays January 10.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Sweep January 10.pdf
drive.google.com
Last year records for reference - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-642#post-14682606
This year records through 1/05/2026 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-698#post-14768479
