NFL Week 18 Betting Spots
Let Down Spots:- The Browns could be soft at Cincinnati after the big win against the Steelers.
- The Vikings could be softer against the Packers after the big Lions win.
- The Packers can’t improve their 7 seed and may just play a half or so.
- The Chargers may not care about their seed or upsetting Denver out of the one seed.
- The Bills could rest their guys and be happy with a seven seed if they lose to the Jets.
- Bears will try to win for 2 seed.
- Eagles will try to win for 2 seed.
- Colts will try to salvage their season and play spoiler against the Texans.
- The Titans will also try to spoil the 1 seed for the Jaguars.
- Miami can play spoiler and remove the Patriots from chances of 1 seed.
- If the Seahawks win (Saturday) , the Rams can get the coveted 5 seed in the NFC. If they lose, they are locked into the 6.
- Packers clearly looking to the Playoffs.
- Any wildcard team is in danger of not putting up a huge effort.
- The Falcons after Monday Night hosting the Saints.
- The Rams after Monday Night hosting the Cardinals.
- The Broncos after Christmas hosting the Chargers.
- The Chiefs after Christmas at the Raiders.
- The Vikings after Christmas hosting the Packers.
- The Lions after Christmas at the Bears.
- The Cowboys after Christmas at the Giants.
- The Commanders after Christmas at the Eagles.
- The Texans after Saturday Night hosting the Colts.
- The Ravens after Saturday Night at the Steelers.
FOOTBALL SELECTIONS from Joe Gavazzi
JoeGavazziSports.com
HOME TEAMS in caps
_______________________
Thursday, Jan 1st
ORANGE BOWL Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens, FL
3% Texas Tech (+2) Noon ET
What a way to kick off the New Year with 2 of the most exciting teams of the season facing off in the CFP. Oregon HC Lanning has far more experience than his counterpart HC McGuire thanks to his experience at Georgia and Oregon. He also has one of the best quarterbacks in the nation this year in Dante Moore who enters this game with a 28:8 ratio. Though we have NO defining “3D” or “4D” team in this matchup, it is of major concern that the Ducks allowed 509 yards in their Round #1 win over James Madison last week. Each team enters on lengthy winning streaks with matching 12-1 SU records. Tech, however, was where the money is with their 11-1 ATS mark. It is an amazingly improved defense that has led Tech to where they are today. But that’s what $28 million dollars of Permian Basin Oil and Gas money will do when you want to buy a CFB team in this day and age. It is reported that almost $10 million dollars of that money was spent on a defense that has been worth every penny allowing just 11 PPG. The only loss of the season for TTRR was when QB Morton (67% C, 22:11 ratio) was unavailable for the Arizona State game. Other than that, ALL VICTORIES WERE BY 22 OR MORE POINTS. “Guns up” Red Raiders as TTRR advances to the next round with this mini upset.
ROSE BOWL Rose Bowl Pasadena, CA
3% Indiana (-7) 4:00 PM ET
It has been a peripatetic Alabama team in the 2nd year of the HC DeBoer tenure. To wit there was the season opening loss to Florida State, a defeat at Oklahoma, an Iron Bowl escape against rival Auburn, and an embarrassing loss to Georgia in the SEC Title Game, 28-7. Last week, it appeared they had a negative carryover effect when they trailed Oklahoma 17-0 in their revenge game. They rallied to victory which allowed them to advance and face the #1 team in the nation. DeBoer does bring a nice pedigree to the sidelines with his 11-3 ATS dog log. It also must be respected that the Crimson Tide beat 4 ranked teams this season. If they do so today, it will be in large part because QB Simpson, with a 28:5 ratio, was able to overcome the Tide’s pathetic 104/3.3 run game. Indiana is led by HC Cignetti who has led the greatest turnaround of any program in recent memory. They capped off a 13-0 SU perfect season by defeating Ohio State for the BIG 10 Title. Main reason for this selection is their “4D” defensive advantage, some indicators by a wide margin. It is, however, never easy to play on a Heisman Trophy winning player such as QB Mendoza who has a 73% C and 38:7 ratio. Though the Hoosiers met every test, it should be noted that 3 of their 13 wins were by 6 or less points.
SUGAR BOWL Caesars Superdome New Orleans, LA
5% Georgia (-6.5) 8:00 PM ET
The Bulldogs have dominant edges in every defensive category making this one of the stronger “4D” plays of the Bowl Season. In addition, there is a clear edge on the sideline with post season veteran HC Smart against the Ole Miss Interim HC Golding. In the first meeting between these two, the Rebels led 35-26 before the Bulldogs used one of their patented 4th quarter rallies to emerge with a 43-35 victory. IT WAS THE ONLY LOSS FOR OLE MISS making this a legitimate revenge outing in the CFP rematch. Since entering as a starter in the early weeks of the season, Rebel’s QB Chambills has been phenomenal with a 67% C and 19:3 ratio. His counterpart is Georgia QB Stanton with a solid 24:7 ratio of his own. We are backing the Bulldogs with the meaningful advantage of the “4D System” and the notable coaching experience edge to outweigh the Ole Miss revenge motive. Regarding our coaching advantage in this matchup, I note that the Georgia defense has returned to its norm. In the last 6 games, since they played Ole Miss, the defense has allowed only 11.7 PPG. It is even better in the last 4 in which they have allowed an average of just 7 PPG,226 YPG, including just 32 RYPG. From a longer term perspective, consider Smarts record in Post Season play of 7-1 SU with wins of 19 PPG on average.
Next release: Friday, Jan 2nd by 11:00 AM ET
WONDER WHAT IT MEANS?
Abbreviations Legend
SU Straight Up CON Conference
ATS Against the Spread NC Non-conference
AFP Away from the Pointspread DIA-DIA Dogs In Action Do It Again
FCB Final Crushing Blow DDF Double Digit Favorite
HF Home Favorite LHG Last Home Game
HD Home Dog MNF Monday Night Football
RF Road Favorite MRT Most Recent Trend
RD Road Dog PF Points For
HC Head Coach PA Points Against
OL Offensive Line REV Revenge
RY Running Yards LSR Last Season Revenge
PY Passing Yards Vs Versus
TY Total Yards * New Coach, QB
LY Last Year ≥ Greater than or equal to
LT Lifetime ≤ Less than or equal to
RTF Recruit, Transfer and Frosh Rating KoT Keep on Trackin’
RPR Returning Production Rating 200 Club (see KoT)
EXP Experience Rating Double Rush (see KoT)
PR Power Rating SA SU/ATS
SUFL Straight up favorite off loss SUDW Straight up dog off win
Peter Principle – People rise to their level of incompetence WTF Wrong Team Favored
SOS Strength of Schedule (Sagarin)
JoeGavazziSports.com
HOME TEAMS in caps
_______________________
Thursday, Jan 1st
ORANGE BOWL Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens, FL
3% Texas Tech (+2) Noon ET
What a way to kick off the New Year with 2 of the most exciting teams of the season facing off in the CFP. Oregon HC Lanning has far more experience than his counterpart HC McGuire thanks to his experience at Georgia and Oregon. He also has one of the best quarterbacks in the nation this year in Dante Moore who enters this game with a 28:8 ratio. Though we have NO defining “3D” or “4D” team in this matchup, it is of major concern that the Ducks allowed 509 yards in their Round #1 win over James Madison last week. Each team enters on lengthy winning streaks with matching 12-1 SU records. Tech, however, was where the money is with their 11-1 ATS mark. It is an amazingly improved defense that has led Tech to where they are today. But that’s what $28 million dollars of Permian Basin Oil and Gas money will do when you want to buy a CFB team in this day and age. It is reported that almost $10 million dollars of that money was spent on a defense that has been worth every penny allowing just 11 PPG. The only loss of the season for TTRR was when QB Morton (67% C, 22:11 ratio) was unavailable for the Arizona State game. Other than that, ALL VICTORIES WERE BY 22 OR MORE POINTS. “Guns up” Red Raiders as TTRR advances to the next round with this mini upset.
ROSE BOWL Rose Bowl Pasadena, CA
3% Indiana (-7) 4:00 PM ET
It has been a peripatetic Alabama team in the 2nd year of the HC DeBoer tenure. To wit there was the season opening loss to Florida State, a defeat at Oklahoma, an Iron Bowl escape against rival Auburn, and an embarrassing loss to Georgia in the SEC Title Game, 28-7. Last week, it appeared they had a negative carryover effect when they trailed Oklahoma 17-0 in their revenge game. They rallied to victory which allowed them to advance and face the #1 team in the nation. DeBoer does bring a nice pedigree to the sidelines with his 11-3 ATS dog log. It also must be respected that the Crimson Tide beat 4 ranked teams this season. If they do so today, it will be in large part because QB Simpson, with a 28:5 ratio, was able to overcome the Tide’s pathetic 104/3.3 run game. Indiana is led by HC Cignetti who has led the greatest turnaround of any program in recent memory. They capped off a 13-0 SU perfect season by defeating Ohio State for the BIG 10 Title. Main reason for this selection is their “4D” defensive advantage, some indicators by a wide margin. It is, however, never easy to play on a Heisman Trophy winning player such as QB Mendoza who has a 73% C and 38:7 ratio. Though the Hoosiers met every test, it should be noted that 3 of their 13 wins were by 6 or less points.
SUGAR BOWL Caesars Superdome New Orleans, LA
5% Georgia (-6.5) 8:00 PM ET
The Bulldogs have dominant edges in every defensive category making this one of the stronger “4D” plays of the Bowl Season. In addition, there is a clear edge on the sideline with post season veteran HC Smart against the Ole Miss Interim HC Golding. In the first meeting between these two, the Rebels led 35-26 before the Bulldogs used one of their patented 4th quarter rallies to emerge with a 43-35 victory. IT WAS THE ONLY LOSS FOR OLE MISS making this a legitimate revenge outing in the CFP rematch. Since entering as a starter in the early weeks of the season, Rebel’s QB Chambills has been phenomenal with a 67% C and 19:3 ratio. His counterpart is Georgia QB Stanton with a solid 24:7 ratio of his own. We are backing the Bulldogs with the meaningful advantage of the “4D System” and the notable coaching experience edge to outweigh the Ole Miss revenge motive. Regarding our coaching advantage in this matchup, I note that the Georgia defense has returned to its norm. In the last 6 games, since they played Ole Miss, the defense has allowed only 11.7 PPG. It is even better in the last 4 in which they have allowed an average of just 7 PPG,226 YPG, including just 32 RYPG. From a longer term perspective, consider Smarts record in Post Season play of 7-1 SU with wins of 19 PPG on average.
Next release: Friday, Jan 2nd by 11:00 AM ET
WONDER WHAT IT MEANS?
Abbreviations Legend
SU Straight Up CON Conference
ATS Against the Spread NC Non-conference
AFP Away from the Pointspread DIA-DIA Dogs In Action Do It Again
FCB Final Crushing Blow DDF Double Digit Favorite
HF Home Favorite LHG Last Home Game
HD Home Dog MNF Monday Night Football
RF Road Favorite MRT Most Recent Trend
RD Road Dog PF Points For
HC Head Coach PA Points Against
OL Offensive Line REV Revenge
RY Running Yards LSR Last Season Revenge
PY Passing Yards Vs Versus
TY Total Yards * New Coach, QB
LY Last Year ≥ Greater than or equal to
LT Lifetime ≤ Less than or equal to
RTF Recruit, Transfer and Frosh Rating KoT Keep on Trackin’
RPR Returning Production Rating 200 Club (see KoT)
EXP Experience Rating Double Rush (see KoT)
PR Power Rating SA SU/ATS
SUFL Straight up favorite off loss SUDW Straight up dog off win
Peter Principle – People rise to their level of incompetence WTF Wrong Team Favored
SOS Strength of Schedule (Sagarin)
Games to win the division title
Panthers4/0 at Buccaneers*4/0Brad Allen
Saturday 4:30 p.m.
ABC ESPN ESPN+
*plus ATL loss
Ravens4/0 at Steelers4/0
Shawn Smith
8:20 p.m. GAME 272
NBC Peacock
Game to clinch a division title
Titans at Jaguars1/2/3/5/6/7Scott Novak
1 p.m.
Fox
Games involved in a division title
Colts at Texans3/5/6/7Land Clark
1 p.m.
CBS
Saints at Falcons*
Ron Torbert
1 p.m.
Fox
*Falcons win can cause a 3-way tie for the division that favors the Panthers.
Game to clinch the #1 seed
Chargers5/6/7 at Broncos1/2/3Clete Blakeman
4:25 p.m.
CBS
Games with #1 seed implications
Dolphins at Patriots1/2/3Clay Martin
4:25 p.m.
Fox
Jaguars can also earn the #1 seed
Games with only seeding order implications
Jets at Bills5/6/7Alan Eck
4:25 p.m.
CBS
Commanders at Eagles2/3
Shawn Hochuli
4:25 p.m.
CBS
Lions at Bears2/3
Brad Rogers
4:25 p.m.
Fox
Cardinals at Rams5/6
Carl Cheffers
4:25 p.m.
Fox
No playoff implications
Cowboys at GiantsAdrian Hill
1 p.m.
Fox
Packers7 at Vikings
John Hussey
1 p.m.
CBS
Browns at Bengals
Alex Kemp
1 p.m.
CBS
Chiefs at Raiders
Craig Wrolstad
4:25 p.m.
CBS
Recap
Football
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Records
Last year records for reference - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-642#post-14682606
This year records through 12/31/2025 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-696#post-14763915
Football
Gridiron Gold Sheet -- NFL Week 18.pdf
drive.google.com
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College Bowls Issue 4.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook January 3-4.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook Midweek Alert January 3-4.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook 2005 College Bowl Guide #2.pdf
drive.google.com
Pointwise January 3 - The Bowls #3.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Plays January 3.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Sweep January 3.pdf
drive.google.com
Totals Tipsheet #18.pdf
drive.google.com
Wise Guys Report #18.pdf
drive.google.com
Last year records for reference - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-642#post-14682606
This year records through 12/31/2025 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-696#post-14763915
Bowl Guide # 2
PLAY ON any greater than .666 military bowl
team off a win that scored fewer than 50 points
in its last game if its overall Yards Per Rush
is 4.0 or greater and they are facing a foe
that scored less than 40 points in its last game.
BOWL GUIDE 2 AWESOME ANGLE
Play ON: Navy Midshipmen (1/2/26)
PLAY ON any greater than .666 military bowl
team off a win that scored fewer than 50 points
in its last game if its overall Yards Per Rush
is 4.0 or greater and they are facing a foe
that scored less than 40 points in its last game.
BOWL GUIDE 2 AWESOME ANGLE
Play ON: Navy Midshipmen (1/2/26)
Henie Race Reports ECHR -- Gulfstream Park - Friday, January 2nd.pdf
drive.google.com
Henie Race Reports WCHR -- Santa Anita - Friday, January 2nd.pdf
drive.google.com
Premium Plus PP's - Aqueduct - Friday, January 2nd.pdf
drive.google.com
They are both on the 49ers today bigtime.WOW, crazy season with both M-Law and B-Lang killing it down the stretch
