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Steele mistake - (another big one)

Utah St / Wazzu - writeup says USU will win, but score prediction in bold says WASH ST 26-21. Great newsletter tho....

username_ · Dec 19, 2025

No Powers as of yet, but that's prolly no big deal.
Since the line is currently Oklahoma -2 & 42... let's just say Brad has it Oklahoma 22-20.
If not, I know I'm only 1 pt off on either side.

donsketch · Dec 19, 2025

Circa Football Invitational - BY ENTRY

Chris Macero (64 PTS - 1st) - (59-44-2)
Mon, Dec 22 - 49ers at Colts - OVER (46.5) * BEST BET
Sat, Dec 20 - James Madison at Oregon - UNDER (46)
Sat, Dec 20 - Miami FL (+3) at Texas A&M
Sat, Dec 20 - Packers at Bears - UNDER (46.5)
Sun, Dec 21 - Bengals at Dolphins - OVER (47.5)
Sun, Dec 21 - Falcons at Cardinals - OVER (48)
Wed, Dec 24 - California at Hawaii - OVER (53)

Scott Pritchard (63 PTS - 2nd) - (58-44-3)
Thu, Dec 25 - Cowboys at Commanders - UNDER (52.5) * BEST BET
Sat, Dec 20 - Miami FL at Texas A&M - UNDER (48)
Sun, Dec 21 - Jaguars (+3.5) at Broncos
Tue, Dec 23 - W Kentucky vs Southern Miss - OVER (57.5)
Sun, Dec 21 - Vikings at Giants - OVER (42.5)
Sun, Dec 21 - Giants (+3) vs Vikings
Mon, Dec 22 - Washington ST vs Utah ST - UNDER (50)

Chris Fallica (62 PTS - 3rd) - (57-45-3)
Sat, Dec 20 - James Madison at Oregon - UNDER (46) * BEST BET
Sat, Dec 20 - Commanders (+7) vs Eagles
Tue, Dec 23 - Ohio (+6.5) vs UNLV
Sat, Dec 20 - Miami FL at Texas A&M - OVER (48)
Sun, Dec 21 - Jaguars (+3.5) at Broncos
Sun, Dec 21 - Browns (+10.5) vs Bills
Tue, Dec 23 - Southern Miss (+2.5) vs W Kentucky

Jason Jarvis (62 PTS - 3rd) - (56-48-1)
Sun, Dec 21 - Giants (+3) vs Vikings * BEST BET
Sun, Dec 21 - Jaguars (+3.5) at Broncos
Sun, Dec 21 - Jets (+6.5) at Saints
Sun, Dec 21 - Ravens (-3) vs Patriots
Sun, Dec 21 - Cowboys (-2) vs Chargers
Mon, Dec 22 - Colts (+5.5) vs 49ers
Thu, Dec 25 - Chiefs (+6) vs Broncos

Chris Piper (61 PTS - 5th) - (57-48-0)
Mon, Dec 22 - 49ers at Colts - UNDER (46.5) * BEST BET
Mon, Dec 22 - 49ers (-5.5) at Colts
Thu, Dec 25 - Lions at Vikings - OVER (48.5)
Sat, Dec 20 - Oregon (-21) vs James Madison
Tue, Dec 23 - UNLV (-6.5) vs Ohio
Sun, Dec 21 - Raiders at Texans - UNDER (38)
Sun, Dec 21 - Texans (-14) vs Raiders

Kenny White (60.5 PTS - 6th) - (55-47-3)
Sat, Dec 20 - Montana at Montana ST - UNDER (54) * BEST BET
Sat, Dec 20 - Tulane (+17) at Ole Miss
Sat, Dec 20 - Montana ST (-6) vs Montana
Sat, Dec 20 - Villanova (+2) vs Illinois ST
Sat, Dec 20 - Illinois ST at Villanova - UNDER (52.5)
Sat, Dec 20 - James Madison (+21) at Oregon
Sat, Dec 20 - Texas A&M (-3) vs Miami FL

Meyer / Sack (60 PTS - 7th) - (54-50-1)
Sun, Dec 21 - Giants (+3) vs Vikings * BEST BET
Fri, Dec 19 - Alabama at Oklahoma - UNDER (41)
Sun, Dec 21 - Jaguars at Broncos - OVER (47)
Sun, Dec 21 - Cardinals (+3) vs Falcons
Sun, Dec 21 - Titans (+3) vs Chiefs
Sun, Dec 21 - Cowboys (-2) vs Chargers
Sun, Dec 21 - Buccaneers (-3) at Panthers

Matt Ste. Marie (60 PTS - 7th) - (55-49-1)
Thu, Dec 25 - Lions (-3.5) at Vikings * BEST BET
Sun, Dec 21 - Titans (+3) vs Chiefs
Sun, Dec 21 - Jaguars at Broncos - OVER (47)
Sun, Dec 21 - Panthers (+3) vs Buccaneers
Sun, Dec 21 - Falcons at Cardinals - OVER (48)
Sun, Dec 21 - Lions (-7) vs Steelers
Sun, Dec 21 - Broncos (-3.5) vs Jaguars

Mike North (59 PTS - 9th) - (56-48-1)
Sun, Dec 21 - Ravens (-3) vs Patriots * BEST BET
Sun, Dec 21 - Giants (+3) vs Vikings
Sun, Dec 21 - Jaguars (+3.5) at Broncos
Sun, Dec 21 - Cowboys (-2) vs Chargers
Sun, Dec 21 - Jets (+6.5) at Saints
Sat, Dec 20 - Packers (+2) at Bears
Sat, Dec 20 - Commanders (+7) vs Eagles

Frank Carulli (59 PTS - 9th) - (53-49-3)
Fri, Dec 19 - Oklahoma (-1) vs Alabama * BEST BET
Sat, Dec 20 - Ole Miss (-17) vs Tulane
Sun, Dec 21 - Bengals at Dolphins - OVER (47.5)
Sun, Dec 21 - Chargers (+2) at Cowboys
Fri, Dec 19 - Alabama at Oklahoma - OVER (41)
Sun, Dec 21 - Lions (-7) vs Steelers
Sun, Dec 21 - Giants (+3) vs Vikings

Betti / Curtis (58.5 PTS - 11th) - (54-50-1)
Wed, Dec 24 - Hawaii (PK) vs California * BEST BET
Thu, Dec 25 - Chiefs (+6) vs Broncos
Mon, Dec 22 - Colts (+5.5) vs 49ers
Sat, Dec 20 - James Madison at Oregon - OVER (46)
Sat, Dec 20 - Oregon (-21) vs James Madison
Sun, Dec 21 - Raiders at Texans - OVER (38)
Sun, Dec 21 - Texans (-14) vs Raiders

donsketch · Dec 19, 2025

Circa Football Invitational - BY GAME

CFB - Fri, Dec 19 at 8:10 PM ET - Alabama at Oklahoma
Frank Carulli : Oklahoma (-1) vs Alabama * BEST BET
Frank Carulli : Alabama at Oklahoma - OVER (41)
Meyer / Sack : Alabama at Oklahoma - UNDER (41)

CFB - Sat, Dec 20 at 12:00 PM ET - Miami FL at Texas A&M
Chris Macero : Miami FL (+3) at Texas A&M
Kenny White : Texas A&M (-3) vs Miami FL
Chris Fallica : Miami FL at Texas A&M - OVER (48)
Scott Pritchard : Miami FL at Texas A&M - UNDER (48)

CFB - Sat, Dec 20 at 3:30 PM ET - Tulane at Ole Miss
Frank Carulli : Ole Miss (-17) vs Tulane
Kenny White : Tulane (+17) at Ole Miss

CFB - Sat, Dec 20 at 4:00 PM ET - Montana at Montana ST
Kenny White : Montana ST (-6) vs Montana
Kenny White : Montana at Montana ST - UNDER (54) * BEST BET

NFL - Sat, Dec 20 at 5:00 PM ET - Eagles at Commanders
Mike North : Commanders (+7) vs Eagles
Chris Fallica : Commanders (+7) vs Eagles

CFB - Sat, Dec 20 at 7:30 PM ET - James Madison at Oregon
Kenny White : James Madison (+21) at Oregon
Betti / Curtis : Oregon (-21) vs James Madison
Chris Piper : Oregon (-21) vs James Madison
Betti / Curtis : James Madison at Oregon - OVER (46)
Chris Fallica : James Madison at Oregon - UNDER (46) * BEST BET
Chris Macero : James Madison at Oregon - UNDER (46)

CFB - Sat, Dec 20 at 7:30 PM ET - Illinois ST at Villanova
Kenny White : Villanova (+2) vs Illinois ST
Kenny White : Illinois ST at Villanova - UNDER (52.5)

NFL - Sat, Dec 20 at 8:20 PM ET - Packers at Bears
Mike North : Packers (+2) at Bears
Chris Macero : Packers at Bears - UNDER (46.5)

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 1:00 PM ET - Bengals at Dolphins
Chris Macero : Bengals at Dolphins - OVER (47.5)
Frank Carulli : Bengals at Dolphins - OVER (47.5)

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 1:00 PM ET - Bills at Browns
Chris Fallica : Browns (+10.5) vs Bills

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 1:00 PM ET - Chiefs at Titans
Matt Ste. Marie : Titans (+3) vs Chiefs
Meyer / Sack : Titans (+3) vs Chiefs

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 1:00 PM ET - Chargers at Cowboys
Meyer / Sack : Cowboys (-2) vs Chargers
Mike North : Cowboys (-2) vs Chargers
Jason Jarvis : Cowboys (-2) vs Chargers
Frank Carulli : Chargers (+2) at Cowboys

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 1:00 PM ET - Vikings at Giants
Mike North : Giants (+3) vs Vikings
Scott Pritchard : Giants (+3) vs Vikings
Frank Carulli : Giants (+3) vs Vikings
Meyer / Sack : Giants (+3) vs Vikings * BEST BET
Jason Jarvis : Giants (+3) vs Vikings * BEST BET
Scott Pritchard : Vikings at Giants - OVER (42.5)

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 1:00 PM ET - Buccaneers at Panthers
Matt Ste. Marie : Panthers (+3) vs Buccaneers
Meyer / Sack : Buccaneers (-3) at Panthers

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 1:00 PM ET - Jets at Saints
Jason Jarvis : Jets (+6.5) at Saints
Mike North : Jets (+6.5) at Saints

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 4:05 PM ET - Jaguars at Broncos
Matt Ste. Marie : Broncos (-3.5) vs Jaguars
Jason Jarvis : Jaguars (+3.5) at Broncos
Mike North : Jaguars (+3.5) at Broncos
Chris Fallica : Jaguars (+3.5) at Broncos
Scott Pritchard : Jaguars (+3.5) at Broncos
Meyer / Sack : Jaguars at Broncos - OVER (47)
Matt Ste. Marie : Jaguars at Broncos - OVER (47)

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 4:05 PM ET - Falcons at Cardinals
Meyer / Sack : Cardinals (+3) vs Falcons
Matt Ste. Marie : Falcons at Cardinals - OVER (48)
Chris Macero : Falcons at Cardinals - OVER (48)

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 4:25 PM ET - Raiders at Texans
Chris Piper : Texans (-14) vs Raiders
Betti / Curtis : Texans (-14) vs Raiders
Betti / Curtis : Raiders at Texans - OVER (38)
Chris Piper : Raiders at Texans - UNDER (38)

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 4:25 PM ET - Steelers at Lions
Matt Ste. Marie : Lions (-7) vs Steelers
Frank Carulli : Lions (-7) vs Steelers

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 8:20 PM ET - Patriots at Ravens
Jason Jarvis : Ravens (-3) vs Patriots
Mike North : Ravens (-3) vs Patriots * BEST BET

CFB - Mon, Dec 22 at 2:00 PM ET - Washington ST vs Utah ST
Scott Pritchard : Washington ST vs Utah ST - UNDER (50)

NFL - Mon, Dec 22 at 8:15 PM ET - 49ers at Colts
Jason Jarvis : Colts (+5.5) vs 49ers
Betti / Curtis : Colts (+5.5) vs 49ers
Chris Piper : 49ers (-5.5) at Colts
Chris Macero : 49ers at Colts - OVER (46.5) * BEST BET
Chris Piper : 49ers at Colts - UNDER (46.5) * BEST BET

CFB - Tue, Dec 23 at 5:30 PM ET - W Kentucky vs Southern Miss
Chris Fallica : Southern Miss (+2.5) vs W Kentucky
Scott Pritchard : W Kentucky vs Southern Miss - OVER (57.5)

CFB - Tue, Dec 23 at 9:00 PM ET - UNLV vs Ohio
Chris Fallica : Ohio (+6.5) vs UNLV
Chris Piper : UNLV (-6.5) vs Ohio

CFB - Wed, Dec 24 at 8:00 PM ET - California at Hawaii
Betti / Curtis : Hawaii (PK) vs California * BEST BET
Chris Macero : California at Hawaii - OVER (53)

NFL - Thu, Dec 25 at 1:00 PM ET - Cowboys at Commanders
Scott Pritchard : Cowboys at Commanders - UNDER (52.5) * BEST BET

NFL - Thu, Dec 25 at 4:30 PM ET - Lions at Vikings
Matt Ste. Marie : Lions (-3.5) at Vikings * BEST BET
Chris Piper : Lions at Vikings - OVER (48.5)

NFL - Thu, Dec 25 at 8:15 PM ET - Broncos at Chiefs
Betti / Curtis : Chiefs (+6) vs Broncos
Jason Jarvis : Chiefs (+6) vs Broncos

uscmd · Dec 19, 2025

thanks DonSketch. Much appreciated. BOL 2 you

BuzzKill · Dec 20, 2025

GRIDIRON GOLD SHEET BOWL ISSUE

Boise State vs Washington — Saturday 8:00 PM
Line: Washington −9.5 | Total: 48.5
This matchup presents a classic bowl dynamic where one team relies heavily on structure, discipline, and experience staying competitive, while the other brings a broader range of answers on both sides of the ball. Boise State has long been respected for its ability to punch above its weight class, particularly by controlling tempo, protecting the football, and forcing opponents to earn every point. That formula has allowed Boise to hang around in games where the raw talent gap is noticeable. However, this particular matchup places them against a Washington team uniquely suited to neutralize those strengths.
Defensively, Washington’s front is built to handle balanced offenses without compromising coverage integrity. Boise State’s offense functions best when it can establish the run early, remain ahead of the chains, and keep play-calling flexible. When Boise is forced into third-and-long situations, their efficiency drops significantly, especially against defenses that can generate pressure without committing extra rushers. Washington excels in exactly that area, consistently collapsing pockets with four-man pressure and limiting scrambling lanes. That forces Boise into lower-percentage throws and shorter completions, which makes sustained drives harder to maintain.
Washington’s offensive versatility is another major separator. They are comfortable playing at a controlled pace, but they also have the ability to attack vertically once defenses start creeping forward. Boise State’s secondary has shown vulnerability against layered route concepts and play-action looks, particularly when safeties are forced to make run-pass decisions. Washington doesn’t need to score quickly to be effective; they simply need to remain efficient and patient until coverage breaks down.
The bowl environment magnifies depth and in-game adaptability. Boise State can keep this matchup competitive early by limiting mistakes and shortening the game, but as the second half unfolds, Washington’s depth advantage becomes increasingly important. Fatigue tends to show first in the defensive front and secondary, and that’s where Washington is most capable of creating separation. This doesn’t project as a runaway from the opening kickoff, but it does set up as a steady, methodical pull-away scenario.
Laying less than double digits with the more complete team is justified here, especially when that team has multiple paths to scoring and is less dependent on game script to succeed.
TAKE: Washington −9.5

Troy vs Jacksonville State — Tuesday 9:00 PM
Line: Troy −3 | Total: 47.5
Jacksonville State’s season has been impressive, but this matchup represents a significant test in terms of defensive resistance and situational discipline. Troy has built its identity around controlling games defensively, limiting explosive plays, and forcing opponents into uncomfortable, methodical football. That style is particularly effective in bowl games, where unfamiliar opponents often struggle to adjust once initial scripted plays are exhausted.
Jacksonville State thrives on momentum and efficiency, especially when able to capitalize on defensive lapses or favorable field position. Against Troy, those opportunities are far less frequent. Troy’s defense is exceptionally sound in gap control and coverage responsibility, which reduces the likelihood of breakdowns that Jacksonville State has relied on to sustain drives. When Jacksonville is forced to string together long possessions, the margin for error narrows considerably.
Offensively, Troy is not built to overwhelm opponents with speed or volume, but they are very comfortable playing from a slight advantage. They understand how to shorten games, manage the clock, and avoid unnecessary risks. That is an important trait when laying a short number, because Troy doesn’t need to dominate statistically to cover. They simply need to remain patient and allow Jacksonville State to press.
Experience is another critical factor. Troy has repeatedly played games where execution in the fourth quarter determines the outcome. Jacksonville State, while talented, is still adjusting to that environment against teams that don’t beat themselves. Mistakes that were survivable earlier in the season are far more costly against a defense like Troy’s.
The spread reflects a competitive game, but Troy’s consistency on defense and comfort in close contests give them a meaningful edge. Winning by more than a field goal is a reasonable expectation given the matchup dynamics.
TAKE: Troy −3

Old Dominion vs South Florida — Wednesday 5:00 PM
Line: Old Dominion +5.5 | Total: 59.5
This is a matchup where the underdog profile is far more attractive than public perception suggests. South Florida brings athleticism and offensive upside, but their inconsistency has been a recurring issue, particularly when asked to sustain drives without relying on explosive plays. Old Dominion, on the other hand, is built to stay competitive by controlling tempo, limiting mistakes, and forcing opponents to execute patiently.
South Florida prefers to play fast and create scoring opportunities through chunk plays. When those plays are available, they can look dominant. When they are not, drives often stall due to penalties, negative plays, or red-zone inefficiency. Old Dominion’s defensive approach is designed to prevent exactly that type of volatility. They keep everything in front of them, limit explosive gains, and force offenses to convert multiple third downs to score.
Offensively, Old Dominion is comfortable playing a possession-based game. They don’t need to score frequently to remain competitive; they simply need to finish drives with points and avoid turnovers. That approach shortens the game and keeps margins tight, which is ideal when catching more than a field goal.
Bowl games often reward teams that stay composed and avoid self-inflicted damage. Old Dominion has consistently shown the ability to do that, even against more athletic opponents. South Florida’s tendency to swing between efficiency and frustration introduces unnecessary risk when laying points.
With multiple paths to covering—either by staying within one score or pulling an outright upset—Old Dominion offers strong value in this spot.
TAKE: Old Dominion +5.5

Delaware vs Louisiana — Wednesday 8:30 PM
Line: Delaware +3 | Total: 52.5
This matchup profiles as a stylistic clash where control, physicality, and patience should matter more than raw athletic burst. Delaware’s success has been rooted in its ability to dictate pace, shorten games, and force opponents into extended drives. That approach is especially valuable in a bowl setting, where unfamiliarity and preparation time can magnify execution gaps. Louisiana brings speed and playmaking potential, but that advantage diminishes when possessions are limited and mistakes become more costly.
Delaware’s offensive identity is built around staying on schedule and protecting the football. They are comfortable running the ball in neutral downs, accepting modest gains, and trusting their ability to convert manageable third downs. That patience can frustrate opponents who prefer faster tempo and quick strikes. Against Louisiana, that matters because the Ragin’ Cajuns have been far more comfortable when games open up and scoring swings come in bunches. When forced into grind-it-out situations, their margin for error narrows considerably.
Defensively, Delaware excels at assignment football. They rarely overpursue, they tackle well in space, and they make offenses earn yardage in small increments. That style limits explosive plays and puts pressure on red-zone efficiency. Louisiana has shown vulnerability when drives require precision, particularly when penalties or negative plays push them behind the chains. Delaware’s ability to avoid breakdowns increases the likelihood of stalled possessions and field-goal attempts rather than touchdowns.
From a game-flow perspective, this matchup is unlikely to produce a runaway on either side. Delaware’s approach naturally keeps scores tight, while Louisiana’s advantages are most pronounced in faster, higher-variance games. With the spread sitting inside a field goal, the value lies with the team better equipped to control tempo and reduce volatility. Delaware doesn’t need to win by margin to cash; they simply need to keep the game within one possession, which aligns perfectly with how they prefer to play.
Bowl games often reward teams that can remain disciplined for four quarters without chasing the game. Delaware’s profile fits that requirement well, making the underdog position attractive in what projects as a competitive, physical contest.
TAKE: Delaware +3

Missouri State vs Arkansas State — Thursday 9:00 PM
Line: Missouri State +1 | Total: 56
This matchup presents a near pick’em on the surface, but the underlying profiles of these teams suggest a clearer edge than the line implies. Missouri State’s strength lies in consistency. They are fundamentally sound, they protect the football, and they rarely allow games to spiral due to self-inflicted mistakes. Arkansas State, by contrast, has shown a wider range of outcomes, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, where breakdowns have led to extended drives and late-game swings.
Missouri State’s offense is not built around explosive plays, but that can be an advantage in bowl environments. They are comfortable sustaining drives, flipping field position, and taking points when available. That approach limits variance and puts pressure on opponents to execute cleanly over long stretches. Arkansas State has struggled when asked to defend patiently, especially against teams willing to stay balanced and avoid obvious passing situations.
Defensively, Missouri State’s discipline stands out. They play assignment football, limit missed tackles, and generally force offenses to earn yards incrementally. Arkansas State’s offense has shown flashes, but it has also been prone to inconsistency when drives require multiple successful plays in sequence. That creates opportunities for stalled possessions and momentum swings.
In games where the spread is effectively asking one team to win outright, trusting reliability becomes paramount. Missouri State has shown the ability to execute its game plan regardless of opponent or venue. Arkansas State’s volatility introduces risk, especially when laying points, even if that number is small.
The bowl setting further tilts this matchup toward the steadier team. Neutral-site games often punish teams that rely on emotion or momentum rather than structure. Missouri State’s calm, methodical approach positions them well to capitalize on mistakes and control key moments. With the line essentially asking Missouri State to win the game, backing the more consistent profile offers value.
TAKE: Missouri State +1

Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan — Friday 11:00 AM
Line: Western Michigan −3.5 | Total: 50
Kennesaw State’s season has been built on effort, structure, and maximizing limited resources, but this matchup asks them to solve problems they haven’t consistently faced. Western Michigan brings a higher level of speed and offensive flexibility, which becomes particularly challenging over four quarters when defensive adjustments are required. In a bowl setting, that versatility often separates teams that can adapt from those that must rely on a fixed identity.
Kennesaw State’s success has come from disciplined execution and limiting mistakes, but their margin for error is thin against opponents that can score in multiple ways. Western Michigan’s offense is capable of attacking both horizontally and vertically, forcing defenses to cover the entire field. That stretches Kennesaw State’s defensive structure and increases the likelihood of coverage mismatches as the game progresses.
Defensively, Western Michigan is better equipped to handle Kennesaw State’s approach. They have the size and speed to contain the run while still applying pressure on passing downs. If Kennesaw is forced into longer-yardage situations, sustaining drives becomes difficult. That plays into Western Michigan’s ability to flip field position and gradually take control.
Another key factor is second-half scoring potential. Western Michigan has shown the ability to adjust offensively once defensive tendencies are identified. As fatigue sets in, their speed advantage becomes more pronounced, leading to chunk plays and extended drives. Kennesaw State, meanwhile, has had difficulty responding when games shift away from their preferred tempo.
Laying a modest number here is justified because Western Michigan doesn’t need to dominate early. They simply need to remain patient, trust their offensive depth, and allow matchup advantages to surface over time. By the fourth quarter, those differences are likely to show on the scoreboard.
TAKE: Western Michigan −3.5

Memphis vs NC State — Friday 2:30 PM
Line: NC State −4 | Total: 58
This bowl matchup sets up as a contrast between offensive volatility and defensive structure, and that contrast is central to how the game is likely to unfold. Memphis brings athleticism and scoring upside, but they have also been inconsistent sustaining drives when opponents are able to control early downs. NC State, on the other hand, is built around discipline, balance, and minimizing mistakes—traits that tend to translate well in bowl environments.
Memphis is at its best when games become fast and loosely structured. Their offense thrives on tempo, space, and creating favorable matchups in the open field. However, when forced to operate methodically, their efficiency drops. NC State’s defensive approach is specifically designed to limit explosive plays and force opponents to earn yards incrementally. They play sound coverage, tackle well in space, and rarely overcommit, which reduces Memphis’ ability to generate quick scoring swings.
Offensively, NC State does not rely on overwhelming opponents with pace or volume. Instead, they focus on staying on schedule, controlling time of possession, and finishing drives with points. That style puts pressure on Memphis’ defense to remain disciplined for extended stretches, something they have struggled with throughout the season. Missed assignments and late-drive breakdowns have been recurring issues, particularly when facing balanced offenses.
The bowl setting further favors NC State’s profile. Extra preparation time benefits teams that emphasize structure and execution, and NC State has consistently shown the ability to adjust game plans effectively. Memphis’ reliance on rhythm makes them more susceptible to disruption, especially early in the game when scripted defensive looks can slow momentum.
Laying six points is reasonable given the matchup dynamics. NC State doesn’t need to dominate statistically to cover; they simply need to remain efficient and capitalize on Memphis’ defensive lapses. As the game progresses, NC State’s consistency and situational awareness should allow them to separate.
TAKE: NC State −4

Alabama vs Oklahoma — Friday 8:00 PM
Line: Oklahoma −1 | Total: 40
This matchup is defined by physicality, discipline, and the ability to win field-position battles. Both teams bring strong defensive identities, but Alabama’s depth and adaptability provide a subtle yet meaningful edge. Oklahoma has shown resilience and toughness, but they have also struggled to maintain offensive efficiency against elite defensive fronts.
Alabama’s defense excels at controlling the line of scrimmage and limiting explosive plays. They are particularly effective at forcing offenses into third-and-long situations, where pressure and coverage work in tandem. Oklahoma’s offense has been inconsistent when forced into obvious passing downs, especially against teams that can generate pressure without sacrificing coverage integrity.
Offensively, Alabama is comfortable playing a controlled game. They don’t need to score frequently to win; they simply need to avoid turnovers and capitalize on short fields. Oklahoma’s defense has played well at times, but depth issues tend to surface late in games, particularly against teams willing to stay patient and physical.
The low total reflects expectations of a tight, defensive contest, where every possession matters. In those scenarios, execution and composure are critical. Alabama’s experience in high-stakes environments gives them an advantage, especially in late-game situations where decision-making under pressure can determine the outcome.
With the line sitting near a pick’em, backing the team with greater defensive depth and bowl-game experience makes sense. Alabama’s ability to control tempo and win key moments positions them well to emerge with a narrow but decisive victory.
TAKE: Alabama +1

BuzzKill · Dec 20, 2025

GRIDIRON GOLD SHEET BOWL ISSUE (CONTINUED)

Miami (FL) vs Texas A&M — Saturday 12:00 PM
Line: Texas A&M −3 | Total: 52
This matchup features two talented teams with different approaches to controlling games. Miami relies on athleticism and defensive aggression, while Texas A&M emphasizes balance, physicality, and situational control. In bowl settings, the latter approach often proves more reliable, particularly when spreads are modest.
Miami’s defense can be disruptive, but that aggression occasionally leads to breakdowns, especially against teams willing to exploit overpursuit. Texas A&M’s offense is built to take advantage of those moments, using play-action and misdirection to create space. When Miami fails to generate early stops, they can become vulnerable to extended drives that wear down the defense.
Offensively, Miami has shown flashes of explosiveness, but consistency has been an issue. Sustaining drives against disciplined defenses has been a challenge, particularly when penalties or negative plays disrupt rhythm. Texas A&M’s defense is well-suited to capitalize on those mistakes, maintaining gap integrity and limiting yards after contact.
The bowl environment magnifies preparation and execution. Texas A&M’s structured approach benefits from additional prep time, allowing them to fine-tune game plans and adjust to opponent tendencies. Miami’s reliance on energy and momentum introduces more variance, which is less desirable when laying points.
Laying 3.5 points with Texas A&M is justified given their ability to control game flow and limit Miami’s explosive opportunities. Even in a competitive contest, Texas A&M’s balance and discipline should allow them to pull away late.
TAKE: Texas A&M −3

Tulane vs Ole Miss — Saturday 3:30 PM
Line: Ole Miss −17.5 | Total: 56
This matchup highlights a common bowl-season dynamic: a highly motivated, well-coached underdog facing a more talented favorite whose margin for error comes down to focus and execution. Tulane enters this game with a clear identity built on discipline, ball control, and defensive structure. Ole Miss brings superior depth, speed, and offensive flexibility, but covering a number this large requires sustained attention across four quarters.
Tulane’s defensive approach is designed to slow games down. They are comfortable conceding short gains in exchange for preventing explosive plays, and they do a strong job of forcing opponents to string together long drives. Against teams that rely heavily on chunk plays, that approach can be frustrating. Ole Miss, however, has the personnel and patience to handle that style. They are not dependent on tempo or quick strikes; they are equally capable of methodically moving the ball, wearing down defenders, and capitalizing once coverage starts to soften.
The key separator in this matchup is trench depth. Tulane’s defense has played well all season, but sustaining that level against a power-conference offensive line for four quarters is a tall order. As the game progresses, fatigue becomes a factor, particularly in the second half when missed tackles and late reactions start to appear. Ole Miss excels at exploiting exactly those moments, turning modest gains into drive-extending plays.
Offensively, Tulane is efficient but limited in upside. They can move the ball when game flow stays favorable, but they struggle to respond once they fall behind by multiple scores. Ole Miss’ defense, while not elite, is athletic enough to tighten coverage and force Tulane into passing situations they prefer to avoid. That imbalance becomes more pronounced if Ole Miss jumps out to an early lead.
Bowl games often come down to whether the favorite stays engaged. Ole Miss’ roster composition and recent performance suggest they are capable of doing so, especially with an opportunity to make a statement. While Tulane can remain competitive early, the matchup favors a second-half separation.
TAKE: Ole Miss −17.5

James Madison vs Oregon — Saturday 7:30 PM
Line: Oregon −20.5 | Total: 50
James Madison has earned national respect through consistency, structure, and relentless execution. They rarely beat themselves, they defend with discipline, and they are comfortable playing from any script. However, this matchup places them against an Oregon team with a decisive athletic and depth advantage across nearly every position group.
James Madison’s success is built on efficiency rather than explosiveness. They rely on staying on schedule offensively and limiting mistakes defensively. That approach works extremely well against teams of similar caliber. Against Oregon, however, the margin for error shrinks dramatically. Oregon’s defensive speed compresses throwing windows and limits yards after contact, making it far more difficult for James Madison to sustain long drives.
Oregon’s offense presents problems that James Madison is not accustomed to seeing weekly. The Ducks can attack horizontally and vertically, forcing defenses to defend every blade of grass. When opponents overcommit to stopping the run, Oregon punishes them through the air. When coverage backs off, Oregon is happy to lean on the ground game and control tempo. That versatility is crucial when laying a large number.
The bowl setting amplifies Oregon’s advantages. Extra preparation time benefits teams with deeper playbooks and personnel flexibility. Oregon can adjust in-game without sacrificing effectiveness, while James Madison must rely heavily on execution staying near perfect. Over four quarters, that imbalance becomes increasingly difficult to overcome.
James Madison deserves credit for their season and will compete with effort and discipline. But effort alone does not bridge athletic gaps in bowl games against top-tier opponents. Oregon does not need to play fast or aggressively to cover; they simply need to stay efficient and avoid turnovers.
As the second half unfolds, Oregon’s ability to rotate bodies and maintain pace should allow them to gradually extend the margin.
TAKE: Oregon −20.5

Washington State vs Utah State — Monday 2:00 PM ET
Line: Utah State −1.5 | Total: 55.5
This bowl matchup is a strong example of why context matters far more than name recognition. Washington State enters with the more recognizable brand and a history of competing against Power Conference opponents, but Utah State’s profile is quietly better suited for this specific game environment. When the matchup is stripped down to current form, style compatibility, and motivation, Utah State holding a short favorite role makes sense.
Utah State’s strength begins with structure. They are a fundamentally sound team that limits self-inflicted mistakes and understands how to manage games from start to finish. Offensively, they do not rely on tempo or gimmicks. Instead, they focus on staying ahead of the chains, protecting the football, and capitalizing when defenses overcommit. That approach is especially effective against Washington State, a team that has struggled with consistency when forced to defend extended drives without creating negative plays.
Washington State’s defense has shown flashes, but discipline has been an issue. Missed assignments and breakdowns in run fits have repeatedly allowed opponents to sustain possessions. Utah State’s offense is designed to exploit exactly that type of vulnerability. They are patient enough to keep taking what is available and disciplined enough to avoid forcing plays that aren’t there. Over time, that patience wears down defenses that rely on disruption rather than execution.
Defensively, Utah State matches up well. They are comfortable defending balanced attacks and do a strong job limiting explosive plays, which is critical against a Washington State offense that can struggle to stay efficient without chunk gains. When Washington State is forced into third-and-long situations, their success rate drops noticeably, particularly against teams that can generate pressure while keeping coverage intact.
The bowl setting also favors Utah State. Teams that emphasize preparation, discipline, and clarity of role tend to benefit most from extended prep time. Utah State’s coaching staff has consistently shown the ability to create clean game plans that minimize exposure and maximize strengths. Washington State, by contrast, has been more volatile, often playing to the level of competition rather than dictating terms.
Laying a field goal at a neutral site is reasonable given Utah State’s advantages in consistency and game management. This is not a matchup where Utah State needs to dominate statistically. They simply need to stay composed, avoid turnovers, and allow Washington State to make the first mistake. That dynamic strongly favors the favorite.
This projects as a competitive game early, but one where Utah State’s steadiness gradually takes control, particularly in the second half when execution matters most.
TAKE: Utah State −1.5

BuzzKill · Dec 20, 2025

Henie Race Reports ECHR -- Gulfstream Park - Saturday, December 20th.pdf

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Simulcast Plays of the Day, December 20, 2025, by Richard Eng.pdf

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theSleeper · Dec 20, 2025

https://x.com/nflrefstats1

I only recently got linked to this in X (I don't visit often).
Ref assignments and individual ref info that could influence a game.

sprtfrk · Dec 20, 2025

theSleeper said:
https://x.com/nflrefstats1
I only recently got linked to this in X (I don't visit often).
Ref assignments and individual ref info that could influence a game.

Thursday, Dec. 18

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BuzzKill · Dec 20, 2025

Lindo Report for Oaklawn Park Late Pick Five - Saturday, December 20.pdf

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BuzzKill · Dec 20, 2025

Recap
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Anything from Bondi

BuzzKill · Dec 21, 2025

Henie Race Reports ECHR -- Gulfstream Park - Sunday, December 21st.pdf

drive.google.com

Simulcast Plays of the Day, December 21, 2025, by Richard Eng.pdf

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