Jeremy Plonk's Saturday Breeders' Cup Updated Picks and Thoughts
The scratches of Sweet Azteca and Tamara (F&M Sprint) really deliver a blow to the price of my best bet of the weekend, Splendora. That likely will shift me more into the multi-race bets keying her now. With Mystik Dan (Dirt Mile) and Arizona Blaze (Turf Sprint) among the other scratches (of course Sovereignty known for days in the Classic), I’ve adjusted some of my top-4s for those Breeders’ Cup races.
Yesterday was no good on the handicapping front here, and that was almost expected with a lack of feel for those races. As mentioned in yesterday’s send, BC Friday is just a day for me to watch with nearly none of my budget being expended before the huge Saturday card. I feel much better about today, and hopefully the results follow.
Key plays for me today are the Filly & Mare Sprint, Sprint and the dual-longshot plays in the Mile.
Here are the adjusted picks:
SATURDAY
Race 4: Filly & Mare Sprint
2-SPLENDORA (8-1)
8-HOPE ROAD (4-1)
7-HAULIN ICE (20-1)
9-RICHI (5-1)
The Skinny: Even if F&M Sprint history says otherwise, the west coast looks dominant here having already shipped east to win the big races this year at Churchill and Saratoga in the division. SPLENDORA freaked over the Del Mar surface last out and is absolutely blossoming. Her last workout was one of the most visually stunning I’ve ever seen in that she looked like she was galloping and stopped the clock in 47-2/5. Freakish right now, a Del Mar monster and best work of the entire Breeders’ Cup lead-ins that I observed. She becomes a single now for me with the scratches of SWEET AZTECA and TAMARA.
Race 5: Turf Sprint
8-AG BULLET (4-1)
1-MOTORIOUS (7-2)
10-SHESOSPICY (6-1)
11-BUCANERO FUERTE (20-1)
The Skinny: Del Mar has produced 30-1 and 33-1 winners in 2 of its 3 Turf Sprint renewals, so I’m trying hard to look past the logical contenders here. But last year’s 2-3 finishers MOTORIOUS and AG BULLET are both running extremely well and AG BULLET has been absolutely super to this eye training in the mornings. The rail may not be great for MOTORIOUS, but Anthony Fresu’s riding record in full-field turf sprints at Del Mar is an insane 14: 4-4-2 with $3.76 back for every $1 bet. If anyone’s going to navigate the trip down there, it’s Fresu – like he did last year from the rail in the 11-horse Turf Sprint to miss by a neck. I hate to do it, but this looks straightforward among the public choices.
Race 6: Sprint
7-IMAGINATION (6-1)
2-BANISHING (15-1)
10-BENTORNATO (5-2)
13-MAD HOUSE (30-1)
The Skinny: The laughable ease in which IMAGINATION coasted past the field late in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, including defending BC Sprint winner Straight No Chaser, was something to see (102 BRIS late pace figure backed it up). A fantastic pace set-up should put the field in his crosshairs again. BANISHING will be flying late as well, but 6 furlongs might be too short for him to get all the candy. Among the brigade of speed horses who will be duking it out, BENTORNATO has brilliance and a background to prove he belongs, while little-known MAD HOUSE is a rapid-rising 3-year-old who has looked absolutely fabulous to this eye since arriving at Del Mar. The Sprint is one of the best bets of the weekend.
Race 7: Distaff
12-DORTH VADER (5-1)
13-REGALED (30-1)
8-SEISMIC BEAUTY (9-5)
1-NITROGEN (4-1)
The Skinny: The leg action late with favorite SEISMIC BEAUTY was up and down in the final stages at 1-1/16 miles this summer at Del Mar and that leaves her a major question mark at a short price extending another 110 yards. DORTH VADER pretty much ended the career of champion Thorpedo Anna with their throwdown in August’s Personal Ensign, witnessed by that rival’s subsequent flop in the Spinster and retirement. DORTH VADER wisely avoided another prep and refreshed, and you’re not going to find but a scant few horses in any BC division who have looked any better than her training up to this. No one will finish faster than REGALED, and if the pace is hot enough, she’s going to pass a lot of bigger names at a big price. The hype surrounding NITROGEN is massive, but I haven’t gotten that vibe after a modest Spinster finish – although she certainly has trained well to this eye.
Race 8: Turf
3-AMILOC (10-1)
1-REBEL’S ROMANCE (5-2)
8-MINNIE HAUK (8-5)
9-GOLD PHOENIX (20-1)
The Skinny: By most accounts a 2-horse race between 2022 and 2024 Turf victor REBEL’S ROMANCE and the Arc de Triomphe runner-up sophomore filly MINNIE HAUK. Another Godolphin-Coolmore clash on the world stage. MINNIE HAUK is a commanding even-money favorite in the British betting markets (3-1 on REBEL’S ROMANCE), despite only 1 3YO filly ever (Found 2015) winning the BC Turf. Arc alumni used to have more success in this race but note only 2 of the last 15 BC Turf winners exited that prestigious French showcase. AMILOC’s only defeat in 6 starts overseas came in the 1-3/4 miles Irish St. Leger last out to Al Riffa, current favorite for the Melbourne Cup. Trainer Rafe Beckett has called him a headcase, but he seems to be putting it together. The Europeans dominate the division, but not always with the one the public expected. Let’s try that angle while respecting the favorites as well in multi-race bets.
Race 9: Classic
9-JOURNALISM (5-1)
8-MINDFRAME (6-1)
2-BAEZA (10-1)
5-FOREVER YOUNG (7-2)
The Skinny: Sovereignty’s scratch shook the handicapping process for this race. There’s a ton of talk about the top-3 finishers from last year’s Classic back at it, and that’s great for business and media. But did you know in the 42-year history of the Breeders’ Cup only 3 horses who ran top-3 one year came back the next to win? That’s Mucho Macho Man (2013), Tiznow (2001, only back-to-back winner) and Alysheba (1987). It’s hard to stay elite until the end of the season once, much less twice. Considering SIERRA LEONE, FIERCENESS and FOREVER YOUNG to all fire back hasn’t been historically easy. Let’s go fresh Classic faces. Top pick JOURNALISM has been in training for more than a year with no break, but his prep path to run in August’s Pacific Classic and train up to the BC makes him as fresh as he’s ever been. He’s training lights out, likes Del Mar and feels like he’s sitting on the race of his life. The last time he had a little space between races was the San Felipe when he ran a vastly improved effort and perhaps his most impressive visual race of the campaign (absent the theatrics in the Preakness stretch). MINDFAME has the best win of the year in the Churchill Downs Handicap and comes in absolutely fresh. BAEZA is training like he’s going to run out of his skin and is a major threat.
Race 10: Mile
13-QIRAT (20-1)
9-ARGINE (20-1)
2-NOTABLE SPEECH (5-2)
7-JOHANNES (8-1)
The Skinny: In a Mile with no apparent early speed, English rabbit-turned-lead-actor QIRAT intrigues from the far outside post. He won’t have to stand in the gate long and could pop on top and lead these a long way. Japanese runner ARGINE pairs nicely with Frankie Dettori for a former Bobby Frankel assistant trainer who makes his first Breeders’ Cup appearance. Intriguing from a good draw at a big price. Short-priced NOTABLE SPEECH hasn’t finished as strong in his North American races based on BRIS late pace figures and he was passed late last year and couldn’t catch JOHANNES for second. Those two will run good races again as highly dependable sorts, but I’m price hunting for the win.
Race 11: Dirt Mile
3-NYSOS (8-5)
6-FULL SERRANO (7-2)
8-CHANCER McPATRICK (15-1)
2-GOAL ORIENTED (6-1)
The Skinny: The most interesting Dirt Mile in its history has 3 past Breeders’ Cup divisional winners and a Kentucky Derby winner in the lineup – but it really looks like a “Big 2 & The Others.” It’s difficult to imagine this pace not overheating, so the patience displayed by NYSOS in the San Diego over this track in July hardens his stance at the favorite. Defending champ FULL SERRANO is near perfection over the Del Mar track and his last at 9 furlongs was very good and sets him up for the turnback with stamina as best of the speed. CHANCER McPATRICK gets the right set-up to pass gassed duelers and chasers and could add value as the exacta splitter.
Race 12: Filly & Mare Turf
13-SHE FEELS PRETTY (4-1)
14-SEE THE FIRE (5-1)
9-CINDERELLA’S DREAM (9-2)
2-STELLIFY (30-1)
The Skinny: American SHE FEELS PRETTY could get a dream trip just behind BE YOUR BEST and STELLIFY while never having been beaten more than three-quarters of a length in an 8-for-12 career. The Euros will have to run to beat her, and her training videos look fantastic. Trainer Charlie Appleby sounded most confident about CINDERELLA’S DREAM as any of his BC entrants this year in a mid-week interview. She missed by a half-length in traffic last year and was clearly best. But she’s 2 for her last 7 with 4 losses as the favorite and you don’t have to concede any crowns to her. SEE THE FIRE has taken on easily the best competition, battling Ombudsman nobly on multiple occasions this year in the UK and he’s arguably a top-3 grass horse in the world.