NBA Plays 2017-2018

MrUnlucky · Jan 18, 2018

33-24-2

Tempted to take Cleveland, but that record as a favorite this season keeps us away. Same with Boston, but they are 3-0 this season vs Philly, and off a win just a week ago, and Kyrie out tonight. No way.

So taking Minnesota +5. Previously flaming hot Wolves embarrassed (hopefully) by the loss in Orlando, and Houston has not played that well with or without Harden. Also aware that Vegas adjusts lines with people out (two Houston suspensions), but Minnesota plus points is too good to pass up.

Good possibility we will post a play on Indiana after 9:30 (if we play it). These are joint plays after a week-long hiatus.

MrUnlucky · Jan 18, 2018

Calling this BS pick on Minnesota a loss not even halfway through the 3rd Q. Second consecutive game where they absolutely REFUSE to defend the 3-point shot. Houston is beating the sh__ out of them in every phase of the game. Really disappointed I played this one after losing with them the last game. Piss poor effort.

On the other hand, keep waiting for Cleveland to cover the spread, LOL. Avoiding free money like some sort of public street drunk. Cavs are a whopping 6-27 as a favorite, 3-17 in home games, 3-18 versus teams under .500, 9-28 after a loss by 10 or more points. 12-31 ATS overall this season! And if I were to place a bet against them in their next game, they'll win by 30.

33-25-2 which SUCKS.

indiana · Jan 19, 2018

Mr./lucky.........little bump in the road, we all have them...........well done YTD.........BOL with tonight's action..........indy

MrUnlucky · Jan 19, 2018

Thank you.

Tonight, late, low confidence plays on Indiana +2 (-120) and Knicks +5.5. Utah has Gobert back, but he will be limited, and Knicks can hang with Jazz, especially underneath Lakers have too many injuries, and Pacers and are probably mad at blown lead last night. Plus, they are just a much better team. Knicks 9-2 as UD's of +3 to +6.5, and are 13-3 ATS last 16 in Utah, plus an incredible 22-4 ATS in the series!

MrUnlucky · Jan 20, 2018

34-26-2 after Pacers quit in the 4thQ last night.

Still a low confidence card today as we struggle to get back to 66%. We are on the Bulls +2.

Miami is playing 5th game in 7 nights, Charlotte 5th game in 8 nights (under anyone? 7 of last 8 in this series have gone under when played in Charlotte, but we never play over/unders.) Also, Miami is 7-1 ATS as an UD of +4 to +5.5, 8-2 as an UD of +4 to +9.5. Charlotte is 7-1 as a FAV of -4 to -5.5, 9-3 as a FAV or -4 to -8.5. What gives? We are still deciding that one, but could lean to the Heat. Tyler Johnson out for Heat though.

We do not like Milwaukee without the All-Star Antetokounmpo in the lineup (we definitely would if he was playing), but we do not like Philly either because of perceived line value. Also, liked Houston early today, but no play now due to massive line movement towards Rockets.

Update later.

MrUnlucky · Jan 20, 2018

We are going to take Memphis +9 (waiting to see if the lines moves). If it drops to -8, we'll pass. We'll buy it up at (-120) if it remains the same (using Pinnacle line).

I see the total has dropped from 203 to 202 with Miami-Charlotte. We will play out first total of the year at UNDER if it moves back to 203 (but not if it drops again).

MrUnlucky · Jan 20, 2018

Yet another Cleveland loss as a pointspread Favorite (see notes above in this thread). The hits just keep on coming, and we keep missing out. Dam.

We are finished with the card other than last game. If we choose a side in Dallas/Portland, will post later. No play on Charlotte/Miami game (no total either although we would take Under).

MrUnlucky · Jan 20, 2018

More to contemplate. Dallas is an incredible 18-6 ATS as an underdog of +1 to +9.5; 12-4 ATS from +3 to +6.5; 17-5 from +3 to +8.5. If you look at the matchups they did NOT cover, you'll find a whose-who of top NBA teams. Portland is not among that group.

So Dallas or no play if we add it. Portland though is a hellish place to play. However, based on analysis of Dallas results, we are leaning toward a take at +6 (-120).

Look for update later, most likely if we back off (line would have to drop to +5 or less).

MrUnlucky · Jan 20, 2018

Long season, so we are going to skip the Dallas game. Much points to Dallas, but they are also 1-6 ATS off 3 days rest, have Barea out and Portland is really tough at home even though Dallas has done well there. Also, the line slippage from +5.5 to +5 worries us. But take Dallas if you don't mind the extra play, they may win anyway.

MrUnlucky · Jan 21, 2018

Finally a 2-0 night. 36-26-2.

Boston -10.5 or wait to see if it drops to -10 (looks like it is some places). Simply put, they are due. Plus, Orlando cannot live off the 3-pointer every game and cover each time. Hopefully Boston does not let up today and allow a late Orlando cover.

XSPower · Jan 21, 2018

:toast:

MrUnlucky · Jan 21, 2018

Presuming no late player scratches or strange line moves (like last night on Portland/Dallas), we will be playing Indiana +6 AND Brooklyn +6. If the line goes up, that will keep us on the game. If the line drops, may re-consider the play. In any case, we will wait until later to punch the ticket.

MrUnlucky · Jan 21, 2018

Boston is officially in a slump. We'll be careful with a temporarily hot-shooting Orlando for a few days.

Nets +6
Indiana +6.5 now

MrUnlucky · Jan 21, 2018

UPDATE:
Deciding to lay off Indiana +6.5. Late decision not to make it an official play (we see +5.5, 6 and 6.5 now). Betting against the Spurs at home is equivalent to betting against the Patriots to win, LOL.

MrUnlucky · Jan 21, 2018

UPDATE:
Deciding to lay off Indiana +6.5. Late decision not to make it an official play (we see +5.5, 6 and 6.5 now). If we HAD to play the game, we would take Indiana. Too many concerns regarding the Spurs success at home against teams with <.500 road record (13-3-1) combined with Pacers road weariness (last game of 5-game road trip).

Betting against the Spurs at home is equivalent to betting against the Patriots to win, LOL.

MrUnlucky · Jan 22, 2018

37-27-2

Bulls +6.5

MrUnlucky · Jan 22, 2018

Always best to stick with a play once it is on the books. We should have kept our play on Indiana. Live and learn.

Tonight, we really wanted to play red-hot Philadelphia but kept away by 3-4 record as road favorite. Memphis is not an easy place to play, compounded by the non-contender Grizzlies. Also it is best to play a team right when their coach has been fired (Milwaukee), but we just could not lay the points to an unpredictable, young Phoenix team who could easily win the game straight up with Milwaukee's best player sidelined. Heat may have been a solid play, but just too many out at the guard position. We may end up regretting not playing them, especially with Houston off their amazing effort vs Golden State. If we have a play on the late game, will post by 9:30 EST.

XSPower · Jan 23, 2018

Good luck tonight.....

MrUnlucky · Jan 23, 2018

38-27-2
Glad I trusted my "hunches" pertaining to last night.

Nothing tonight, not even the Nets. OKC may be heating up or just fooling us...not worth the gamble for now. Knicks best player out, so no way on +16. Looking at Boston for later, but LAL is hot and Celtics are not.

MrUnlucky · Jan 24, 2018

Wow, the Nets continue to stun with their impressive ability to cover the pointspread which Vegas so generously provides! Not going to make that mistake again. We will plus them often.

Hard to believe, but no plays tonight. Dr. PP says he does not see any value despite the juicy matchups. I would think Boston, but the line is just not attractive, and they are in a terrible slump still. Indiana was a possibility, but they just destroyed Phoenix a week ago, and Suns are feisty as road dogs. New Orleans could be a play, but again the line does not offer any value. We can make a case for either side of every game on the card, so no plays.