Most Important Stats For Betting Baseball?

[-Newman-]

Okay, basically this "thread" is made so that I may get a good consensus opinion from the experts here. What I would like to know from everyone is what are the most important stats should be considered for betting on a game, whether it be runlines or totals? I am in the process of creating a spreadsheet that would take all into consideration. I have read many other people's system of creating picks, and would like to create a bonified one of myself.

So, for all experts and rookies alike, what are the most important factors in betting baseball, and what percentage do those play, if you could? When I make my spreadsheet, I'm going to have it take the certain percentages into effect also. If anyone would like to answer, a short and simple answer could look something like :

Batting Average : 20%
Runs Per Game : 10%
Win / Loss Streak : 15%
Home / Away : 25%
Starting Pitcher : 15%
Bullpen : 10%
Umpire : 5%

Once again, that's a quick-put-together example. I would like to know as many opinions as possible, so please post your "factors".​

 

[Iceman]

get rid of batting average. Everyone will tell you on base average is way more important. In fact I use what they call OPS which is on base average plus slugging percentage.
I also like a stat at espn.com called RPI ratings for each team it is in the standings section. It gives you an idea of how good a team has played based on strenght of schedule and runs scored and allowed.
You will need to put way more emphasis on starting pitching. Most will say more, but I would go 40% which is alot more than you have.
When I look at pitchers I look at strikeouts per 9 innings. I also look at home runs allowed per 9 innings for pitchers and walks per nine innings. It is a complex system but I throw these numbers together to put together a pitching number(power ranking) to judge how good a pitcher is.
good luck

 

[levistep]

Starting pitcher is only 15%?

 

[Boxslayer]

In baseball, you are only as good as the pitchers you have going that day. Pitchers, both starting and bullpen, need to be factored in. I'll list just a few things of the many I look at personally, not sure how some of the can be factored into the system

1. recent performances for both starting pitchers - baseball is a game of streaks and slumps. pitchers can be streaky and slump, too. has the guy got shelled 2 or 3 outings in a row? is he starting to go on a winning streak?

2. lefty on righty, righty on lefty, how does the team fair vs. lefties or righties

3. past performances - does a certain team own a certain pitcher?

4. rest - hitters need to be well-rested to perform. they need to be able to concentrate at the dish. have they played 8 days in a row, and then they played a late night game, and now they are coming out for a day game?

5. home/away performances - some pitchers pitch well at home, or pitch terrible on the road

etc etc etc hope others can contribute, good luck to you and your system

 

[-Newman-]

bump ...

and by the way, the % example I used was just an "example" ...

I would like anyone else to list the factors / percentage, as stated before, so that I may make a consensus spreadsheet that factors in the correct variables of betting baseball as well as the weighted factor each one receieves.

And thank you to those that have responded.

 

[Boxslayer]

OK, I'm going to give this some thought and establish a baseline. Please dont rip me to shreds, just getting a baseline and maybe we can all tweak it from here:

Pitching is at least half the battle. Let's say 55% for now. We'll break that 60% down to a few factors that will encompass "pitching"

1. Pitching - 55%
a. 20% - Starting Pitchers Overall 'Power Ranking'
b. 10% - Starting Pitchers Recent Performances 'Ranking'
c. 10% - Starting Pitchers Road/Home Performances 'Ranking'
d. 10% - Starting Pitchers Power Ranking vs. LH dominated lineups/RH lineups
e. 15% - Bullpen Power Ranking

(Notes: Each team will need to be labeled as a LH dominant lineup or RH dominant lineup. Not necessarily based on how many lefties or righties, but by how many KEY IMPACT hitters are lefties or righties.)

2. Lineup - 25%
a. 10% - Overall lineup quality Power Ranking
b. 5% - How they fare vs. lefties/righties (power ranking)
c. 5% - How they fare on the road/home (power ranking)
d. 5% - Last few days, hot or cold

3. Trends, Factors, Psychological, etc - 20%
a. 10% - Big series, or let down alert?
b. 5% - winning streak of 3+, losing streak of 3+ (recent performance)
c. 5% - Day off? Day of rest?

Add subtract and tweak

 

[-Newman-]

Very impressive write-up Boxslayer and thank you for your input. What's the 'Power Ranking' ? Like E.R.A., WHIP, W-L, etc. factored in for pitchers ... BA, HR, etc. factored in for hitters ... and create a # Ranking compared to all MLB teams?

Thanks again for your input.

 

[Boxslayer]

ill expand later, but it would be a number you would give a team, player, trend whatever from 1-100 or 1-10 whatever, that would save you work of typing in a bunch of stats....

you can aslo set up excel to retrieve stats and fill in your columns and sheets automatically but pointing it to the location of the stats on the internet

 

[Boxslayer]

yeah...and my write up has some errors mathmematically, because i kept tweaking and ajusting the percentagesand forgot to change some #s in other areas, i promise i know how to add up to 100.

but newman what u said was right on....get some kind of a power ranking for overall encompassing w/l strikeout to walk, strikeouts/9 innings, whatever....same for hitters, same for trends whatever
then all of these numbers will give you a rating maybe??? im not a systems guy....then you could compare your final rating numbers to the line for each pitching matchup?? others can help you with that better than me

 

[-Newman-]

I planned on obtaining stats from the internet, but am looking first to see what stats to factor in. I will probably have like Starting Pitcher 50% ... than have a factor rating on all the stats for the Starting Pitcher ... add all the Pitcher stats factor rating, weight that in, etc... Still an extreme work in progress, but have the time and determination to get it done.

Haven't worked in excell for a while now, so I'm going to have to brush up on some advanced skills. Does anyone know off-hand how to obtain stats from a certain webpage and/or a site pertaining on that How-To?

 

[tendog]

slightly off subject, but does anyone know a source for last years boxscores. i am backtracking a couple of things and so far looks promising. sorry to highjack a thread of a fellow nebraskan. where are you located? thanks and good luck on your quest.

 

[-Newman-]

tendog : I'm from Northeastern Nebraska. About 1 1/2 hours from Omaha.


All others, please provide some input !!! Let's see, who can I call out off the top of my head : mofome, Iceman, Choptalk, Captain Carl, SSI, Tomorrow's Newspaper, pops69, SkinsRaj28, carolinakid, sherwood, Dante, 2PlayMax, SportSavant, maxdemo ... just to name a few.

I'd like to get a good general consenus of what factors to factor in as well is if I should weight any of them. Boxslayer started it out nicely and has actually given me a few good ideas on how to organize it. Looking for more, though. Any help is appreciated.

 

[BadCo]

One of the first things I look at is http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp?playerId=4084

Then I go to this
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6245&type=pitching3&three=1

Note Hudson is 4-0 vs Jays with a 1.59 era .231 baa

Then I go here

http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-h.../expanded&gameid=20060621ATLANTA&sit=1&back=1



http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-handicapping-matchups/game-matchups/statfeed.php?page=mlb/daily



Then I scim all the previews and note somthing like this


Young, acquired by the Padres during the offseason in trade for Adam Eaton, pitched his first two seasons with the Rangers in 2004 and '05, going 12-7 with a 4.26 ERA last year.

"It's always fun to pitch in front of family and friends," said Young, who also attended high school in the Dallas area. "I'll have a good support group here for sure. ... I have to make sure I'm prepared and able to help my team win the game."

Young hasn't lost in almost a month, going 3-0 with a 0.99 ERA in four starts since a May 24 defeat. He failed to win his fourth straight start Thursday but pitched well, giving up three runs - two earned - and three hits in five innings of the Padres' 7-3 loss


Then I;m drained so really only capp games on my down days when the faimly is off shopping like today.

Gotta respect these guys that can do this day in and day out it is very taxing.

GL

 

[PO69]

Starting pitcher is MUCCCHH higher than 15%

 

[Insiders]

Starting pitching and Bullpens are Much higher than some think.
Bullpens this year have just been Terrible if that is even close to the right wording.

 

[teazeman]

Insiders:

Hope all is well.

 

[Londos]

There are lots of ways and stats you can mix and match
handicapping baseball. All that others post are important
and I am sure can work well. But there are two stats that i use
that have been working very well for me are:
1. The team i am on must have better W/L record in last 10 games
than opponet
2. My pitcher has better ERA's in at least two out of three areas,
H/A, Overall, and last three outing. You can find them on Fiest site
under classic fast facts. GL

 

[-Newman-]

Thank you all so far for the input, keep it coming.

Still looking for, off the top of my head ... mofome, Iceman, Choptalk, Captain Carl, SSI, Tomorrow's Newspaper, pops69, SkinsRaj28, carolinakid, sherwood, Dante, 2PlayMax, SportSavant, maxdemo, Ace/Ace ... sorry if I haven't named your name.

And Milwaukee, do you manually input your stats in or is it extracted from somewhere. As stated before, used to be an expert in Excel, but haven't worked on it for a while. Don't think I used it to extract stats from somewhere. Do you or anyone else know how this is done? Please get my email from one of the mods and lemme know.

Thanks again to everyone responding.

 

[bullets]

One very important stat that I look at above all.

What team is the money going on. This is my #1 starting point. I usually go the opposite way of the money.

 

[maxdemo]

If you like stats then you should have this spreadsheet.... its a great tool.

http://www.northern.edu/allbees/allbees%20excel.asp