Most Important Stats For Betting Baseball?

[SSI]

let me tell you what i look at (and i havent read this thread yet).. when im at my best, i want:

Home Team (that is better than the away team)(home vs away record)
better starter
hotter team (i wont lay money on a team that has dropped several in a row)
decent price (ill lay a little but wager smaller on those)
highly selective (basically one at a time)

this may sound silly but handicapping is an art... sometimes you can look and see the good play.. sounds vague and it is hard to explain..

 

[twjd]

If I'm not mistaking someone told me that the line vegas puts out uses pitching as 70%. I also would use home and road ERA for the pitchers and bullpen.

 

[maxdemo]

-Newman-
since you asked..I will try to help out.

I play alot of prop-bets...I just do better at those than straight bets. With prop bets they are alittle different to cap than a regual game line. I go by past results and trends. If a pitcher has a tendencie to give up runs early then I usually will hammer the 1st Inning Score prop. I always watch those lines for every game...even though I have no $$ on it, this helps me for the next day games. 1st 5innings are my bets plays I seem to do the best at those and again based on the pitcher and teams playing I can usualy cap the game correctly. That spreadsheet will also help me with some of my selections and is a great tool...but you can never go wrong w/ a gut feeling on games, because sometimes stats and trends will burn you...JMO

Take KC games..they seem to score alot in the 1st inning and they also score 1st and thats why I took them today.

 

[-Newman-]

If you like stats then you should have this spreadsheet.... its a great tool.

http://www.northern.edu/allbees/allbees%20excel.asp

Thanks for the great information there. Do you know if there's a legend of any sort for this spreadsheet? At a quick first glance, there's a lot of confusing lines on there.

 

[Ziti]

Was in a doctors office one day a while back and was reading a magazine article by Bill James (a well known baseball statistician, who I think is employed by the Red Sox now), he was talking about how OPS (on-base-percentage & slugging percentage combined) is a big offensive stat to look at, compared to some of the other offensive stats, such as BA and OBP. He didn't put it in them words, but that is what he meant.

 

[maxdemo]

Thanks for the great information there. Do you know if there's a legend of any sort for this spreadsheet? At a quick first glance, there's a lot of confusing lines on there.

fyi:
from the guy who created the spreadsheet.....this is NOT me!!!

Posted: 4/19/2006 12:31:11 PM

I will not be starting a new thread everyday for this, but there were some issues with it yesterday. I fixed them last night and want to make sure those that downloaded yesterday have the good copy. In the future, if you have something that isn't working just go to the linke below and download the most recent copy.

Here is a screenshot for those that are interested.

I am going to very briefly explain what it does for those that are interested. The spreadsheet download different stats from many different webpages on the net and uses formulas and code to condense it into an easy to read worksheet. I use the matchups from Statfox to run the spreadsheet. They update daily at about 8:00-9:00 CDT. I have no control over when or how they update.

Features:

Team Standings, streaks, Home/Away, Day/Night, Grass/Turf, etc
Offense/Defense Stats for Home/Away, Total, Last 7 Days
Starting Pitching matchups for Home/Away, Total, Last 3 starts, Career vs
Bullpen stats
Odds from many different sportsbooks, with udpate ability
betting percentages from sportsinsights for side and total
umpire data
current weather conditions plus stadium orientation
simple probablities for home/away, Pitchers, vs throwing arm, etc
simple stats advantages for starters, hitting and bullpen

I use it to save time and maybe spot some advantages. It is a good tool, but does not pick winners. People pick winners from experience and knowledge. I hope it can help you also. Enjoy and good luck with your plays.

Spreadsheet
<!-- / message -->

 

[Ziti]

Starting pitcher is only 15%?

Levi,

What makes you say that? Seems a little low.

 

[-Newman-]

Thank You All Who Have Contributed Their Opinions Thus Far.

Any and all help is appreciated, though ... I would like a few more opinions and/or more opinions from those who have answered.

Also, if anyone knows some quick tips on how I may extract stats in Excel directly from an internet source, that help would also be appreciated. Just look in my profile for contact information. Thank you.​

 

[PokerKingJim]

Common Sense Index

 

[Marco]

Newman.....one thing I forgot to mention when we briefly talked about this subject a week or so ago......

very important factor: THE TEAM THAT WINS THE GAME COVERS THE MONEYLINE 100% OF THE TIME.

Just something to think about.

Glad I could help.

 

[winbet]

This Thread shows how much Posters on Forums know about betting, you have to wonder what sort of lives they lead when they have time to post on here yet havent a clue about Betting.

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN BETTING IS THE BOOKMAKERS PRICE :drink: