Monday's Diamond Notes
July 24, 2017
Hottest team: Royals (5-0 past five overall)
The Royals have yo-yoed back and forth in the standings of the American League Central. They won four in a row from July 2-5 to get themselves into a favorable position, only to drop five straight, and seven of eight, to tumble back down the table. They have rattled off five victories in a row against division mates while averaging 7.8 runs per game during the span to get back on a hot streak, including a sweep of the stumbling White Sox. Now, they'll head to Motown looking for a repeat performance against the Tigers starting on Monday. It's a test with Jason Hammel on the hill, as the Royals are just 2-6 over his past eight tries against teams with a losing overall record and 1-5 over his past six road outings overall.
Coldest team: White Sox (1-9 past 10 games, 1-12 past 13 overall)
The White Sox mailed it in, trading off parts of a mediocre team to contenders needing spare parts. As such, Chicago has immediately nosedived in the standings, slipping 12 1/2 games out of first place in the American League Central. They just had their clocks cleaned in Kansas City over the weekend, now they'll face a rival Cubs team playing their best baseball of the season. The Pale Hose are 1-7 over their past eight interleague games, 1-4 in their past five tries against right-handed starting pitching and 7-22 in their past 29 tries against teams with a winning overall mark. In addition, they're just 7-20 over the past 27 road outings. Total bettors betting the 'under' in this rivalry have benefitted greatly lately. The under is 3-0-2 over the past five meetings and 15-4-3 in the past 22 meetings at Wrigley Field.
Hottest pitcher: Jacob deGrom, Mets (11-3, 3.37 ERA)
DeGrom has rattled off a career-high seven consecutive victories, and he has a good chance of making it eight in a row on the road against San Diego. The Padres have the league's worst run differential at minus-132. New York has won four straight against left-handed starting pitching, five of the past six against National League West foes and nine of their past 12 on the road against teams with a losing record. On the flip side, the Padres are 4-1 in their past five against the NL East, but they're just 2-5 over the past seven vs. RHP, 1-5 across Clayton Richard's past six starts and 6-21 in his past 27 tries against NL East foes.
Coldest pitcher: Kevin Gausman, Orioles (6-7, 6.11 ERA)
Gausman actually looked like a major league pitcher last time out against the Rangers, holding them to just one run and four hits with eight strikeouts across six innings in a quality start. In fact, Gausman has won three straight decisions and he hasn't taken a loss over his past five outings. Still, he has a lot of work to do before he can be trusted by bettors. He has allowed 72 earned runs, tied for second-most in the majors, and his 1.75 WHIP is among the worst in the majors. Opposing hitters are still raking at a .316 clip against him, too.
Biggest UNDER run: Phillies (12-4-1 past 17 overall)
The 'under' has been an impressive 12-4-1 over their past 17 outings, and 16-6-4 over the past 26 at Citizens Bank Park. In addition, the under is 19-6-3 over the past 28 tries against a right-handed starting pitcher while going an impressive 36-14-3 over the past 53 against American League West foes. It will be quite the test for the under to cash with Vincent Velasquez on the bump, however, as the 'over' has connected in 12 of his past 16 outings. That includes a 6-2 mark over his past eight appearances at 'The Vault'. For what it's worth, the over is also 5-2-1 over the past eight meetings in this series and 5-2-1 in the past eight in Philly, too.
Biggest OVER run: Padres (8-1-1 past 10 overall)
The Padres allowed plenty of runs, and lead the league in negative run differential. The over is 8-1-1 over their past 10 outings, 3-0-1 in their past four showings at Petco Park and 4-0-1 in Clayton Richard's past five starts at home. In addition, the over is 4-1 over his past five starts overall and 5-1-1 in the team's past seven against teams with a losing overall mark. The over is also 5-2 across the past seven in San Diego, too.
Matchup to watch: Giants vs. Pirates
The Pirates were cooled off a bit in Colorado, which is no surprise considering they're 1-6 over their past seven tries against National League West foes. However, the Bucs have still won 12 of their past 16 overall while going 6-1 across Gerrit Cole's past seven starts. The Bucs are also 14-4 over Cole's past 18 appearances against NL West opponents. For what it's worth, the Pirates are 4-1 over their past five games on a Monday, although they're just 1-6 in Gerrit Cole's past seven appearances on the first weekday. The Giants continue to struggle, going 4-10 over their past 14. Matt Cain gets a chance to keep a rotation spot on a permanent basis. They're just 3-7 across his past 10 starts and 5-17 over his past 22 tries against NL Central foes.
Betcha didn’t know: The Rockies fell back in the National League West with a cold snap before the All-Star break, but they regrouped and had a giant homestand to get back into the postseason picture. In fact, they sit atop the National League Wild Card standings at the moment. They look to stay there facing a Cardinals team that has been stuck in neutral most of the season. Still, St. Louis is just 4 1/2 games back in their division, so they have plenty left to play for. Rockies rookie sensation Antonio Senzatela has 10 victories, and he might have the luxury of facing a lineup without Matt Carpenter (quadriceps). He checked out of Sunday's game early due to a right quad injury.
Biggest public favorite: Cubs (-270) vs. White Sox
Biggest public underdog: Rockies (+150) at Cardinals
Biggest line move: Dodgers (-200 to -250) vs. Twins
