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Power Sports

Miami vs. Chicago
Pick: Miami +1.5

Despite the obvious talent gap that exists between the two teams, I feel the Fish are worth a shot here as the Cubs face the disadvantage of having played the Sunday night game. Plus, tonight's pitching matchup may very well be in favor of the underdog. I look for Miami to do no worse that a one-run loss here.

Dan Straily will be pitching for the Marlins in this series opener. The team has won each of his last three starts and he was downright dominant in the last one, allowing just two runs (one earned) while striking out 10 over 6 2/3 innings. By the way, Miami did quite well over the weekend, taking three of four from an Arizona team that has a better record than the Cubs right now.

The Cubs ended May by losing six straight (all on the West Coast), but then opened June by sweeping the Cardinals here at Wrigley. Still, the World Champs have been downright mediocre so far in 2017 (+4 run differential) and two of the three wins over St. Louis came by one run. A weaker starting rotation has been the primary issue this year for the Cubs and Eddie Butler is emblematic of that . He's posted a 6.57 ERA and 1.946 WHIP in his L3 starts and has more walks than strikeouts during that time.

 

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Wunderdog

Houston @ Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City +1.5

The Houston Astros have rebuilt their team to the point where they are carrying the best record in baseball at 41-16. That is a pace that for the most part is unsustainable. I say that because over the last 12 years any team that has a winning percentage of better than .670 after 54 games (1/3 of the season) have an ROI playing against them of +7.2%. That number doubles if you consider the run line to +14.3%. The Royals dug themslves a deep hole, finishing April at 7-16 while scoring just 2.74 runs a contest. They are an under the radar 17-15 since, scoring 4.09 runs per game. This combination puts the value in this contest.

 

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SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +125 over NASHVILLE

Pittsburgh appears to be gassed at times. They are not peaking and do not have the same energy as they had last year. They are getting by on talent and determination but their legs have not been there for several stretches during these playoffs. Meanwhile, the Preds are energized and they’re feeding off their frenzied fans. It would not surprise us one bit if Nashville won Game 2 and tied this series up. It wouldn’t surprise anyone. It wouldn’t surprise us if Loretta Lynn sang the National Anthem tonight alongside the ghost of Johnny Cash. The atmosphere is electric to be sure with Gary Bettman being the only thing that looks out of place at that arena. It’s hard not to get caught up in it but Pittsburgh is resilient and always seem to make the right adjustments. The Pens have the superior goaltending too and that’s the basis for this choice.

It’s not rocket science. The Pens won Game 1 because Pekka Rinne was awful. The Pens won Game 2 because Pekka Rinne was awful and even got yanked. The Predators won Game 3 because Pekka Rinne had a good game and because the Predators scored a spirit crushing goal with 22 seconds left in the second period to take a 3-1 lead into the third. When a team dominates in basketball, they win. When a team dominates in football, they win. When a pitcher dominates in baseball, he and his team win. In hockey, it’s not like that. When a team dominates in hockey, they lose more often than in any sport and it’s not even close because goaltending is the number one deciding factor in the outcome of games. One could go through every series over the past 20 years or however long you want to and come up with the same conclusion.

Why didn’t Winnipeg, Dallas or Carolina make the playoffs this year? Why didn’t Calgary make the playoffs last year? In the first two games of this series, Matt Murray stopped 60 of 64 shots for a .938 save percentage, while Pekka Rinne only stopped 28 of 36 shots for a .778 save percentage. That’s a 160 point difference in save percentage so again, it’s not rocket science as to why Pittsburgh won. The media (and many experts) insist that Pekka Rinne is a top-notch goaltender but that’s laughable. He’s not. He’s huge and he’s experienced but he’s not reliable and he’s constantly fighting the puck. Great goaltenders don’t get pulled. Rinne has been yanked often over the past two years. Great goaltenders don’t have stretches of 10 games in which their save percentage is under .880 in at least half of them. Rinne has had seven such stretches over the past two years. Every goaltender in the NHL has great games. Kari Lehtonen of the Stars had several this year but he was also pulled numerous times and is considered to be one of the weakest goaltenders in the league. The same goes for guys like Antti Niemi, Michael Hutchinson, Cam Ward, Connor Hellebuyck, Steve Mason and others. Great goaltenders don’t allow soft goals frequently. Weak goaltenders allow soft goals constantly. Pekka Rinne is the latter and that’s why the Penguins are worthy of a bet. It’s not rocket science.

 

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SPORTS WAGERS

San Francisco -1½ +140 over MILWAUKEE

Alright, let’s try this again. Last week we cited Washington as a sucker play when they were a -130 favorite with Strasburg on the hill in Oakland. Washington won 13-3 so it wasn’t much of sucker play at all but that soft line appeared too easy. We’ll put that to the test again here.

That San Francisco is favored here makes no sense either. Milwaukee is in first place in the NL Central and they’re also 15-10 at home while the Giants are in last place in the NL West and they have 10 lousy road wins in 31 tries. Next, Jeff Samardzija is 1-7 with a 4.63 ERA while Junior Guerra is 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA after two starts. Guerra has as many wins in three starts as Samardzija has in 11. The Giants are also coming off a weekend series in Philadelphia in which they lost the last two against the then coldest team in baseball with MLB’s worst record while the Brewers just split with the Dodgers and could’ve won three of four after losing 2-1 in 12 innings in the opener of that series with Clayton Kershaw on the hill. Again, San Fran favored here makes no sense. The oddsmakers are counting on a huge game from Samardzija and they might just be right. Under those ugly surface stats, Samardzija has the third best xERA in the game at 2.99. He has a sick BB/K split of 11/84 in 72 frames, which bodes well here against a Brewers team that has struck out more times than any team in the game except Tampa Bay. Over his last 33 innings, Samardzija has walked one batter and struck out 38. Dude is dealing it but has been the unluckiest pitcher in the game and if things truly do even out over time, the Giants are in line to win this one going away.

The oddmakers were wrong last week when the house got buried in that aforementioned game in Oakland. They aren’t likely to be wrong again here. Chances are great that you’ll get a better price by game time after the market eats up the Crew at home taking back a price. Milwaukee may even be favored by dinner time so we’ll wait until then to pull the trigger here and perhaps we’ll play the Giants on the money line and not the run line. We’ll update this later on and tweet it out when we do.

OAKLAND -101 over Toronto

The Blue Jays are good. There is no question that they are a threat in the AL East and they also have to be feeling pretty damn good about where they are right now considering how bad they started. However, this is a difficult spot for them after winning yesterday to complete a 2/2 split with the Yanks over the weekend. The Jays rallied late from a 2-0 deficit yesterday to win it 3-2. It was an important win for the Jays but it was also a draining series. With the first place Yanks in town, the Jays played four games in succession to sellout crowds of 46,000+. It was a playoff like atmosphere and now they go from that to playing in Oakland. Even if the Jays don’t suffer a letdown here, they are still in tough.

The Athletics are 16-12 at home. It may also surprise you to learn that they have hit the fourth most homers in the league just behind the Astros, Rays and Nationals. That could bode well here against J.A. Happ. While Happ has induced more ground balls this year (48%) and struck out 23 batters in 20 innings, he has allowed harder contact (34%) in 2017. Happ missed almost six weeks with elbow inflammation and returned to the rotation last week with just four innings of work against Cincinnati. He allowed two jacks, three runs, walked three and struck out three and is likely to be on a strict pitch count here as well. 20 innings is not a lot to go on but Happ has been around for years. Last season he maintained a new mix (heavy fastball/slider and sprinkled in curve/change) but outside of his wacky win total, not much else changed. Age, ERA/xERA gap and just average command should temper his price but it hasn’t. He’ll very likely come back to the pack.

Sean Manaea has filthy stuff and continues to create swings and misses (15%) consistently with his change-up (19%) and slider (25%). The lefty has allowed eight earned runs in 22 home innings (3.27 ERA) and his ground ball tilt (51%) plays well at Oakland Coliseum. While fewer first-pitch strikes (58%) have contributed to more walks, his outstanding skills make him worth targeting. Toronto almost always struggles against pitchers with wicked sliders (as do most teams). Sean Manaea entered 2017 as one of the best breakout targets in the game. He started to produce at that level in May (2.63 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) and those marks weren't flukes. They were backed by all of his underlying numbers and now we get him in a favorable spot at a great price.

 

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Bruce Marshall

Toronto at Oakland
Pick: Oakland

Toronto salvaged a split of the 4-game weekend set vs. the Yankees and now makes the long trip to Oakland for this midweek series vs. the A's. Now the Blue Jays have to run into hot Oakland starter Sean Manaea, who has won three straight starts, and allowed ust one run and 7 hits while striking out 17 with just 2 walks over 14 IP in his last two starts, At the same time Toronto is having trouble getting more than five innings from JA Happ since his return from the DL.

 

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Will Rogers

St. Louis at Chicago
Pick: St. Louis

The set-up: The Cubs returned home off an 0-6 West Coats trip and the Cards were in the wrong place at the wrong time in this past weekend's three-game series at Wrigley. The Cards dropped a 7-6 decision Sunday night, as the Cubs completed a three-game sweep. St. Louis continues its seven-game road trip with the first of four tonight in Cincinnati, having lost six of its last seven contests away from home. The Reds hope to avoid a three-game skid at home, after losing 6-5 (12 innings) on Saturday and 13-8 on Sunday to the Braves. Cincinnati has now lost four of its last six at Great American Ball Park to fall to 15-15 at home on the season.

The pitching matchup: Carlos Martinez (4-4 & 3.08 ERA) gets the nod for the Cards and Asher Wojciechowski (1-0 & 5.63) for the Reds. Martinez is another in a long line of St. Louis relievers turned starter. He won 14 games in 2015 and 16 last year. He's a modest 4-4 in 11 starts so far in 2017 (team is 6-5) but he's pitched well, entering this contest with a string of seven consecutive quality starts. He allowed one run on four hits over eight innings in Wednesday's 2-1 victory over the Dodgers, while recording nine strikeouts for the second straight outing. He has given up more than three runs in only two of his 11 start this year. Martinez fell to 5-2 in 17 career appearances (six starts / team is 5-1 and he owns a 3.60 ERA) against Cincinnati on April 9, when he was tagged for six runs (five earned) over five innings. Wojciechowski made his first major-league start since 2015 with Houston on Tuesday and escaped with a no-decision after yielding four runs and four hits (three HRs) over four innings at Toronto (Jays won 6-4). He began the 2017 season (his first season with Cincinnati) by making a pair of relief appearances in which he gave up two runs - one earned - and three hits in four frames. Wojciechowski has faced St. Louis.

The pick: Wojciechowski had been released from a minor league deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks in the spring but three weeks into the season the Reds called, needing a starter at Triple-A. He went on to post a 1.40 ERA in five starts with the Louisville Bats, earning a promotion. Nice story but Martinez has proven to be a quality starter over the last two-plus- seasons.

 

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Bob Balfe

Brewers +110

The Giants are not a very good road team and struggle with right handed starters. Milwaukee is pretty decent at putting runs up at home. Jeff Samardzija has struggled on the road this year and I expect his woes to continue as his offense just can’t give him any run support.

 

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Harry Bondi

TORONTO (-105) over Oakland

Blue Jays are finally performing as expected this season winning 10-3 of their last 13 games. Oakland southpaw Sean Manaea has pitched well lately but the A’s bullpen is depleted after giving up over 40 runs in 4 games versus Washington. Blue Jays starter J.A. Happ has never lost in 9 starts vs Oakland, take the Jays!

 

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The Prez

Miami at Chicago
Play: Over 8

Miami visits Wrigley Field on Monday evening to oppose the Cubs. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET when Fish right-hander Dan Straily (4-3, 3.56 ERA) takes the mound in a square off against Cubs righty Eddie Butler (2-1, 4.42).

While Chicago takes some momentum into tonight's contest at Wrigley, having won three straight finding a way to earn their fourth consecutive victory tonight will require scoring a large number of runs.

The Marlins have had a starting pitcher (Eddy Volquez) throw a no-hitter have won three straight and seven of their last eight. Additionally, the current Miami lineup, scoring runs, has had success at windy Wrigley.

Miami's Straily has won his last three starts, his last coming against a soft-hitting Philadelphia Phillies club, when he allowing two runs in nearly 7 innings of work. Straily is 1-1 with a 6-plus ERA in four career outings vs the Cubs.

Cubs' right-handed journeyman, Butler, has struggled to maintain any consistency this season and is off an outing in which he allowed six runs in 4 1/3 innings -- and against a poor hitting San Diego club. Butler has not pitched past the fifth inning in three straight and the power hitting Marlins have feasted on Butler in his career, albeit a small sample. The Cubs right-hander is 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA in two turns against the Marlins.

The Cubs offense has heated up recently as have the Marlins and warm temps with a strong wind blowing to right field make tonight's event a game where the first team to 6-plus runs is in a good position to win the game.