Monday 10/6/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Monday, October 6

SEATTLE (2 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 3) - 10/6/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
SEATTLE is 28-53 ATS (-30.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 5

Monday, Oct. 6th

Seattle at Washington, 8:35 ET
Seattle: 15-6 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Washington: 27-48 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 5

Trend Report

Monday, October 6

8:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. WASHINGTON
Seattle is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 11 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Seahawks listed as MNF favorites

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Washington Redskins (1-3)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line and Total: Seattle -7, Total: 46

The Redskins look to rebound from a bad Week 4 performance with a home victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks on Monday night.

Seattle is coming off its bye week, prior to which it won 26-20 in overtime against the Broncos behind 258 yards and two touchdowns from QB Russell Wilson, who faces a Redskins’ defense that allowed 300 yards and 4 TD passes in a 45-14 home defeat at the hands of Eli Manning and the Giants last Thursday. Washington has now given up 82 points and 828 yards during its two-game losing skid.

The last time these teams met was in the playoffs on January 6, 2013 when the Seahawks won 24-14 on the road. Redskins QB Kirk Cousins saw time late in that game and went just 3-of-10 for 31 yards. Four of the past six games played between these teams in Washington have gone Over the total.

In the past three seasons, the Seahawks are 28-12 ATS (70%) in all lined games, including 11-3 ATS (79%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Seattle, however, is 7-18 ATS (28%) after a bye week since 1992.

TEs Jordan Reed (hamstring) and Niles Paul (concussion), OT Trent Williams (knee), LB Akeem Jordan (knee) and DE Kedric Golston (groin) are are listed as questionable for Washington.

Seattle is in pretty good shape injury-wise after its bye week, but TE Zach Miller (ankle) is out indefinitely, and both LB Bruce Irvin (ribs) and CB Tharold Simon (knee) are both questionable for Monday's game.

The Seahawks escaped their Super Bowl rematch with the Broncos in their last game, winning 26-20 in overtime at home. Their defense continues to be a nightmare to run against, allowing just 72.3 yards per game on the ground (5th in NFL) on an NFL-best 2.8 yards per carry. They’ll try to take Redskins top RB Alfred Morris out of this game and make Kirk Cousins beat them through the air. Cousins is coming off of a miserable performance, and Seattle’s defense will apply pressure early to prevent him from getting comfortable, but its pass defense has been lit up for 572 passing yards and 5 TD over the past two games.

Offensively, the Seahawks are all about controlling the pace of the game. They’ll feature RB Marshawn Lynch (234 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) heavily in the early going, although the Redskins are allowing just 87.0 yards per game on the ground (8th in NFL).

QB Russell Wilson (651 pass yards, 7.5 YPA, 6 TD, 1 INT) is likely salivating over this matchup. He’s thrown for two touchdowns in every game this season and could be even more effective against this Redskins passing defense that was downright embarrassing versus the Giants last week. Seattle’s head coach, Pete Carroll, will try to find clever ways to get the ball into WR Percy Harvin’s hands. The lightning-quick wide receiver leads the team in targets (17), catches (15) and receiving yards (106), and has the ability to hurt defenses as a pass catcher, but also with jet sweeps and wide receiver reverses. He is a dynamic open-field runner, who has gained 86 yards on just six carries (14.3 YPC) this year.

The Redskins will do everything they can to move past their horrible performance against the Giants in Week 4. QB Kirk Cousins (934 pass yards, 8.2 YPA, 6 TD, 5 INT) will need to look at the tape and find ways to take better care of the football. He was blindly throwing the ball around the field against the Giants and was responsible for five of his team's six turnovers with 4 INT and one lost fumble. If he does that again, the ball-hawking Seahawks’ secondary will do plenty of damage. WR Pierre Garcon (24 rec, 255 yards, 1 TD) is a key player in this game, as he’ll need to use his quickness to get open against the Seahawks’ zone. Garcon had just two catches for 28 yards against the Giants, but he also had a bad Week 2 and responded with 11 receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown in Week 3.

The Redskins will lean on RB Alfred Morris (316 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) plenty in this game. The Seahawks have one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, but the last time these teams played, Morris rushed for 80 yards on 16 carries. Washington would be wise to stick with what was working the last time they played this team.

The tight end position is something to monitor in this game. Kirk Cousins loves to get his tight ends involved, but he could be without both injured TEs Jordan Reed and Niles Paul (21 rec, 313 yards, 1 TD) on Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Seahawks or Redskins? NFL bloggers debate who will cover Monday night

The Seattle Seahawks had an extra week to prepare for the Washington Redskins as the two are set to square off on Monday Night Football this week.

Washington is coming off an awful 45-14 loss - as a 3-point fave - to the New York Giants last week, while the last time the Seahawks played, they registered a memorable overtime victory over the Denver Broncos in a Super Bowl rematch.

Oddsmakers opened the Seahawks as 7-point road favorites for this game and most shops are now dealing a 7.5.

In order to get a grasp on this primetime matchup, we’ve enlisted the help of those who know these teams the best. Expert NFL bloggers Rob Davies of Seahawks blog Field Gulls and Scott Jennings of Redskins blog Hogs Haven strap on the pads to debate not just who wins, but which team will cover the spread when the Seattle Seahawks visit the Washington Redskins Monday night.

WHY SEATTLE WILL COVER

Rob Davies writes for Field Gulls. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @FieldGulls.

Seahawks have won at FedEx on the big stage before

It's been less than two years since Seattle traveled to D.C. for a game with far greater ramifications than this one. The Seahawks beat the Redskins 24-14 on NFC Wild Card weekend in January 2013 and this after they'd looked shell shocked when staring at a 14-0 deficit before the first quarter had even ended.
Not only did Seattle score 24 unanswered points that day, but Washington then never ran a single play inside Seattle territory for the remaining three quarters. The Seahawks won't feel in the slightest bit intimidated on Monday night as they know they can win in the Nation's capital. Russell Wilson was still a rookie two years ago when leading that comeback. He's twice the quarterback he was then.

No more complacency in Seattle

The San Diego Chargers beat the Seahawks at exactly the right time. Maybe Seattle was looking past an inconsistent team to a matchup with the Broncos a week later. Whatever the reasons, that defeat instilled in Earl Thomas once again his "championship spirit" and he may as well have been speaking for the whole team. Yes, Washington was blown away by the Giants last time out, which has them ultra focused this week, but this is no longer a Seattle team that simply thinks it can beat anybody simply by showing up. The Seahawks are battle hardened all over again and won't be taking anybody lightly. The Chargers did a bad thing for the rest of the NFL.

One dimensional Washington?

If Kirk Cousins truly has shaken off his four interception nightmare against the Giants, then fair play to him. However, that's extremely unlikely and he faces the most vaunted secondary in the league this week. He looked fine against the Jaguars and Eagles, but Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor and Maxwell aren't the Jaguars or Eagles. An early pick could prove disastrous, but, even without that, the Redskins may opt to pound the rock behind Alfred Morris and Roy Helu...against a stout Seahawks run defense giving up just 72.3 rushing yards per game. The confidence Cousins has will prove pivotal to the outcome and the only way he'd feel more daunted this week was if the game was being played in Seattle.


WHY WASHINGTON WILL COVER

Scott Jennings writes for Hogs Haven. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @HogsHaven.

Redskins' injury report Is getting smaller

Last week the Redskins played on a short week with 17 players on the injury list. The entire defensive line was banged up and it showed against the Giants. Jason Hatcher was missing the burst in his first step last week while dealing with a hamstring injury, but he has been a full participant in practice. DeSean Jackson has been a full go this week, and looks ready to make some plays against his old friend Richard Sherman.

Tight Ends will find space against Seattle's defense

The Redskins top two tight ends, Jordan Reed and Niles Paul, will both be able to find openings against Seattle's defense. Paul was having a breakout season in Jay Gruden's offense until he was knocked out of the Giants game. Both will be listed as questionable for the game, but at least one will play and take advantage of a weak spot for Seattle.

The Redskins pass rush will get to Russell Wilson

The Redskins front seven was dealing with several injuries last week, but has had 11 days to heel between games. Jason Hatcher has been a force since the start of the year, and will disrupt Seattle's offensive line. Ryan Kerrigan leads the league in sacks with five, and should be able to add to that total Monday. The Redskins secondary is questionable, so getting quick pressure on the QB will be key to hanging with Seattle.

Join the debate. Which team covers on Monday Night Football: Seattle or Washington?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Seahawks trending Under vs. NFC teams
Stephen Campbell

The Seattle Seahawks have been a fantastic Under play against NFC teams, as seven of their last eight games versus the conference have gone Under the total.

The reigning Super Bowl champions travel to D.C. for a date with the Washington Redskins in Monday Night Football action.

The Seahawks are currently 7.5-point road faves with a total of 45.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Seattle covering with ease on grass fields
Stephen Campbell

Grass surfaces have equated to easy covers for Seattle Seahawks backers. In the Seahawks' previous eight games played on the natural surface, Seattle is 6-1 against the spread.

That's a trend their spread backers will hope continues when they take on the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field (a grass field) Monday.

Seattle is presently 7.5-point road faves with an Over/Under of 45 for the contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trend shows Nationals have Bumgarner's number
Stephen Campbell

The San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals face off in the Bay Area for Game 3 of their National League Divisional Series Monday, and there's one particular trend bettors planning on wagering on the game need to be aware of.

Madison Bumgarner takes the hill for the Giants, but the 25-year-old is just 1-5 in his last six outings versus Washington. Doug Fister counters for the Nats.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cardinals lights out with Lackey pitching at home
Stephen Campbell

John Lackey will start Game 3 of the St. Louis Cardinals' Divisional Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Busch Stadium Monday, which will surely please Cards backers.

In Lackey's last 5 starts in St. Louis, the Cardinals are a perfect 5-0. After two games in California the series is tied 1-1.

Hyun-Jin Ryu will counter on the bump for the Dodgers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Notebook: Nats turn to Fister in Game 3
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

WASHINGTON -- Doug Fister, acquired in a trade with the Detroit Tigers before the season, will start for the Washington Nationals in Game 3 on Monday in San Francisco.

The tall right-hander was 16-6 with an ERA of 2.41 in 25 starts this season.

"I don't know that we are in this situation without Doug," first baseman Adam LaRoche said Saturday. "I think he's helped our starters a ton."

Fister, who began this season on the disabled list, works fast and gets a lot of groundball outs.

"You know, the guy doesn't break 90 miles an hour very often," LaRoche added. “He has a knack for sawing guys off, which is pretty tough to do, with that velocity."

--Tim Hudson, the Game 2 starter for the Giants, is no stranger to the Nationals.

In regular-season play he is 18-5 with an ERA of 2.35 in 31 starts against Washington, with many of those games coming when he played for the Atlanta Braves.

So how does Washington first baseman Adam LaRoche approach Hudson, his teammate in Atlanta in 2005, 2006 and 2009?

"You have to get to him early," LaRoche said before Game 2. "Huddy, throughout his career, he is known for, once he gets past the third, fourth inning and settles in, he gets to be really tough.

"If you can get to him the first two, three innings, ideally, it is huge. Not to say he can't be beat after that, but once he gets rolling, he's good. Really good.

"So, yeah, I mean, I don't know. He's got it figured out. He knows when to make adjustments. He knows how to read hitters well. He has a knack for that again. He pounds the zone, typically. Be read ready to hit early."

The Giants were 2-5 against Washington in regular-season play this year and both wins came in games started by Hudson.

--Nationals Park is about 107 miles north of The Diamond in Richmond, the home of the Double-A affiliate of the Giants.

And while the Giants are some 3,000 miles away from the Virginia capital the team has strong ties to the Old Dominion.

The Richmond Flying Squirrels have been the Double-A Eastern League affiliate of the Giants since 2009. Many of the current contributors of the Giants came through Richmond on their way up the minor league ladder, including Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik and Hunter Strickland.

"It seems like here, it doesn't matter who you are, you are treated like one of the team," Belt said before Game 2. "You are treated like everyone else."

Strickland, who pitched in Game 1 for the Giants, was 1-1 with an ERA of 2.02 in 38 games with 11 saves for Richmond earlier this year. He was then promoted to Triple-A Fresno before he got the call to the Giants in early September.

Panik, the second baseman, had five hits in the first two postseason games this year to set a Giants record. He hit .257 in 137 games with 27 doubles, four triples and four home runs while spending all of 2013 in Richmond.

For good measure Giants reliever Javier Lopez is a graduate of Robinson High in Fairfax, Va., about 30 miles from Nationals Park, and manager Bruce Bochy lived in Falls Church, Va., for part of his boyhood.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Monday 10/6 Analysis
By Jeremey Day
DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: UNABATING (2nd)

Spot Play: WHISKEY TAX (11th)



Race 1

In a very wide open and tough race to gauge (9) PROTÉGÉ SEELSTER shows consistency but needs some racing luck from a tough post. (6) BACK TO PEACE raced big last out just missing but is 0 for the year; command a price. (1) BOLD STRIKE comes into the race off an easy victory but is likely to be overbet because of it. The 5-year-old faces much tougher competition.

Race 2

(2) UNABATING takes a huge drop in class and just needs a good steer from a suspect driver. (1) NATURAL FORCES has some question marks coming into the race but does own some back class. (6) SIX BAX well bred gelding has been better in his last few and finds an inconsistent bunch besides the top choice.

Race 3

(9) AMERICAN LEGEND has been facing much tougher all year and gets a chance to gain some confidence against weaker. (2) LANCASTER PARK lightly raced colt was overmatched last out but has tons of room to improve. (1) HIS BOY ELROY two-year-old flashed some talent in his first two starts and could be the sleeper in the race.

Race 4

(5) ODDS ON CYGNUS has just been racing evenly but has beaten better on the year. (9) BEST RISQUE ultra-consistent mare should offer a better price and will be leaving for position. (8) OCEANVIEW BINDI takes an aggressive drop in class; threat.

Race 5

(7) MAJOR AARIES well bred colt has unlimited potential and just needs to move forward in his second lifetime start. (6) BLISSFUL RIVER could be ready for a nice effort on the big track. (8) HARBOR PLACE gelding has been pacing faster than most in the field but is 0 for the year.

Race 6

(3) SPORTS BETTOR needed his last start in the final and should be much sharper against easier. (5) ROBERT HILL put in a nice effort from a tough post last out and has been showing improvement with each start. (2) SHIPPEN OUT has some ability but needs more to get past the top choice; use underneath.

Race 7

In a wide open and evenly matched race (3) EAST MEADOW owns a good burst of speed and should be in a good spot turning for home. (6) SHIPPS XPECTANCY has paced some fast miles recently but looks to offer low value and has burned cash in two straight; command a price. (4) WHIPPET GOOD has been competitive at this level but has a question mark in the race bike.

Race 8

(1) WHEELING N DEALIN dropped and popped last start and is the horse to beat from the rail at this level. (6) MEGO MOSS owns good gate speed which could put the gelding on the ticket with an early breather. (8) HER NAME IS LOLA mare makes her second start back off a layoff and should have more to offer.

Race 9

(2) PHYSICALLYINCLINED will be very tough to beat with a similar effort to his last few. (6) ANTAR PHIL nice looking 2-year-old comes into the race off a nice qualifier but needs more to get past the top choice. (1) WINDSONG LORD has shown a big late kick but does come off a scratch.

Race 10

(10) MEGATRON raced huge last out and should offer value from a tough post. (1) DECISIVE DESTINY is due for some racing luck from the best post and is better coming from off the pace. (3) YS LOTUS was sharp prior to the race in the fog; threat.

Race 11

(7) WHISKEY TAX could be sitting in a good spot with an early pace to close into. (2) DANCEHALL MISTRESS just missed last out at this level and is very consistent from week to week. (3) SWAN IN A MILLION impeccably bred stallion is trotting at a high level and just needs a smooth trip to have his nose on the wire.

Race 12

(8) VIPER SELECT takes a significant drop in class against weaker. (4) MONTE CRISTO is 0 for the year but a candidate to hit the ticket with a smooth trip. (3) MILLIONDOLLARCELL closed good ground last out against similar.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 10/6 Analysis
By Matt Rose
DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 298 - 864 / $1515.30 BEST BETS: 52 - 71 / $168.60

Best Bet: BOSSERS JOY (1st)

Spot Play: CHARGER BLUE CHIP (10th)



Race 1

(1) BOSSERS JOY missed a nose two back going for 225K in the NYSS final; I assume the filly should beat these. (4) PERFECT PLAY was a game uncovered runner-up last out. (2) MYDELIGHT BLUECHIP can be close up throughout and looks best of the rest from this spot.


Race 2

(3) BIG SKY STORM has plenty of back class and the former Open participant can get well versus these. (1) IPO BLUE CHIP returns locally for Team Buter, which is going well now. (6) HOWE'S MAGIC had some big success here last year.

Race 3

(6) JK EVEN STEVEN went a huge trip in defeat in his local debut and he can build off that effort. (3) BADGER QUINN finds a much better spot in his second local start for Allard and he'll be more involved. (2) SANATTLE SLEW ships from Canada to join the Brainard barn; need I say more?

Race 4

(5) ALLSTAR BLUES raced pretty well last week considering he was stuck in post seven and was forced to take an early seat. If he can get near the lead early tonight he can be trouble. (2) BRENT MONTANA is lightly raced stock from Brainard but he's obviously razor-sharp. (6) CORKY BARAN showed flashes of his former self last out with a solid second place effort.

Race 5

(5) DO IT FOR ANNIE loses Bartlett tonight but she'll be forwardly placed with Brennan. (6) GO JESSE GO has been a killer at this level. (7) BROADWAYS FORTUNE drops and has missed time; proceed with caution.

Race 6

(2) ALWAYS A ROMANCE took similar coast to coast last week and she can repeat here. (2) ANTY ENTITY chased the top one second best. (4) ROCKLINDAROCK has had her moments here in the past.

Race 7

(3) OR runs hot and cold but the veteran could be on the upswing. (1) NATHAN FEELSGOOD usually does well from inside slots and he will be close up throughout. (2) TWIN B HOLLISTER finished with plenty last out once shaking free.

Race 8

(3) WHOLLY LOUY was sacrificed first over in his last effort; veteran fits here and only needs a smoother trip. (1) JOHNNY Z was nailed on the wire by a streaking rival last out and he lands the rail again. (4) FLYING INSTRUCTOR has looked good in his two starts since the Brainard claim.

Race 9

(1) JUST ADD VODKA gets some needed post relief tonight and she looks like a lock to be sitting a winning trip. (2) SUPLEMENTAL INCOME gets a free ride after beating these last week. (3) EXPOSE made some decent money in the Excelsior series for Toscano.

Race 10

(5) CHARGER BLUE CHIP has had impossible starting posts in his three starts since dropping to this level; Carlson is back driving tonight and I wouldn't be shocked if he was live tonight. (3) THE POKESTER also gets some post relief and can be a late threat. (1) OUR CULLENSCROWN N gets another crack at the rail after just missing versus one notch lesser.

Race 11

(3) LUCKY MCTRUCKY can be excused for tiring last week after battling with two different rivals; one more chance tonight. (2) ALL STEINAM goes second-time for the Buter barn and can show improvment. (1) GOBAN has stopped in his last two but he's better than that.

Race 12

(2) COLE HEAT gets some needed class and post relief and would appear pretty logical from the spot. (3) I DREAMED A DREAM also moves inside and should threaten. (1) COLE HEAT is quickly running out of excuses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Monday 10/6 Analysis
By Ken Walters
DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: MASTER PINE (5th)

Spot Play: MASTERS SWEETIE (1st)



Race 1

(1) MASTERS SWEETIE draws the rail and faces weaker after a few boring efforts from the outside facing better and should show serious improvement. (4) SON OFA SPUR was a late closing second this level two back and is the late threat. (3) CHIPS DREAMER has the speed and will go as far as he can.

Race 2

(2) QUIK GROOM got parked the mile in last sucking up air all the way and ran out of gas early stretch. Should get a much better trip this evening. (1) KEN UBR DREAM has speed and the rail and will be the one to outkick. (3) MARTIN HANOVER crushed weaker two back and has closed late last two facing this kind.

Race 3

(9) JESSES MESSENGER was uncovered a long way in last pressing the pace. Takes a drop in company and should be tough. (2) IMJISPINETANKU has given a good account of herself last few with wins over three different tracks in four efforts. (3) SOULFUL DELIGHT was burdened by an outside post in last facing slightly better.

Race 4

(8) LIVELIKEURDYING finished fast from far back in last. Has to overcome the post but gets a vote of confidence from here. (1) LISLEA MORAN has the rail and should be able to stay close all the way. With some racing luck, he could score. (2) IMA NUISANCE has been second in three of last four and cannot be ignored for a share.

Race 5

(1) MASTER PINE is sharp now and has the rail. (2) VICTORY CANDY MAN has speed and can be hard to beat on best. (9) STOLEN CROWN ships in off a strong closing score and has speed in front of her. Should not be bothered by the post.

Race 6

(2) HERES HOOTER takes a modest drop after a near miss and is too sharp to go past. (6) WESTERN CHURCHILL closed strong in last to be second best to tough winner. (3) HERE COMES WHITEY also closed strongly in last for a second best. Funny thing is Ronnie Wrenn, Jr. was named on all three of these horses. What does that tell you?

Race 7

(3) GEM HEIST stepped up off the claim and won last out. Faces much the same and gets the nod. (2) SASSY OSBORNE was parked uncovered in middle half big last time. Prior was late closing effort off a covered trip. Should go well with right trip. (4) CRAIG MICHAEL had the trip in last and won for fun. Made a bold wide move prior race and flattened out late. Takes a modest step up the ladder but seems competitive even at this level.

Race 8

(3) LITE ME UP takes a big drop down off some good efforts facing much better and looks best in here. (1) WOW POWER would be no surprise from the rail judging by last few but faces better. (2) MAJIK MASTER failed on the front end in last but has been going well no matter the track last six weeks.

Race 9

(4) MARYS DARVIN won versus weaker two back, rallied late and mild in last facing this kind. Gets call for the win in here. (6) ROSE RUN LOGAN was parked early in last and tired. Will be dangerous with a better trip. (7) EASY STRENGTH has faced better and fits well in this tough field.

Race 10

(4) PLAYIN FOR KEEPS has been sharp, sharper and sharpest in recent races and gets the nod in very competitive field. (1) HALL OF MEMORIES has the pole and will work out a trip. (9) HARE CRAFT has speed inside of him and second tier will be no problem early.

Race 11

(3) DOUBLETROUBLE was nailed late in latest but may be luckier this time. (1) STEVIE DIAMONES has the rail and can have the top one's bad luck lurking in the pocket heading home. (2) KIASMA will have to kick it up more than last but the post change may liven him up a bit.

Race 12

(1) COLETECH was a winner from the rail a few back. Fits well this level. (2) ANASTASIA WHINNIE has not seen a lot of the winner's circle this year but has put in some credible efforts. (3) OLIN closed well in last, ships in and faces slightly weaker.

Race 13

(1) ONHISHONOR HANOVER was parked for life in last and will enjoy life from the rail. (9) CHROME SEELSTER was a late closing second from similar post two back facing this kind. (4) OSBORNES YANKEE won last, steps up and gets nod to land a check.

Race 14

(6) BET ON ART faces weaker and will be tough with covered trip. (4) MAJOR SPEED brushed to the lead in last coming to the half but could not last. Beaten favorite faces slightly better but same move would be hard to beat in here. (3) NEWSPEAK ships in and has speed. Staying power has been a problem, though.

Race 15

(3) ABBYS LUCK finished with good, wide pace in last and slides a little further down the ladder. There is no excuse tonight. (1) CHANG DYNASTY shipped in for last, got parked the middle half challenging the pace before tiring. The rail will help. (5) FIRST AFTER ME has shown late life last two and fits well with these.

 

[superbeets]

Football Conference We 8Oct 19:45

Kidderminster

v

Welling

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		1/2	3	6	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT KIDDERMINSTER	RECENT FORM
ALALHWHLAWAL​ Most recent​	2 - 0 4 - 1 0 - 1 2 - 1	ALHWHDAWHDAD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Welling have trailed at the break in just one of their last six matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Welling have been much-improved in recent weeks but may come up short at promotion-chasing Kidderminster. A tight match is in prospect but Kiddy carry the greater attacking threat with Reece Styche and Michael Gash set to play up top together and may just have the edge.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw-Kidderminster
1

 

[superbeets]

JP Trophy We 8Oct 19:45

Cheltenham

v

Bristol C

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		10/3	13/5	4/5	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT CHELTENHAM	RECENT FORM
ADALHLHDALHD​ Most recent​	2 - 2 2 - 1 2 - 3	AWHWHWAWADHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Bristol City are unbeaten in their last eight away games

EXPERT VERDICT: Bristol City’s priority is to win promotion but they have good depth to their squad and their fringe players can come to the fore in the JPT clash at Whaddon Road. Cheltenham have not won a League Two match since August and are likely to struggle to match the League One leaders.

RECOMMENDATION: Bristol City
1

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MNF REPORT
MONDAY OCTOBER, 6th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________


***** National Football League Information - Week #5 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
______________________________________________________________

#477 SEATTLE @ #478 WASHINGTON
TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Seahawks -7, Total: 45.5

The Washington Redskins will be hard-pressed to continue its dominance against the Seattle Seahawks when the clubs square off in the nation's capital on Monday Night Football. Washington is 11-4 in the all-time regular-season series and has won each of the last six matchups, including a 23-17 triumph at Seattle on November 27th, 2011, in which Roy Helu Jr. accumulated 162 total yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks haven't defeated the Redskins since posting a 24-14 home victory on September 20th, 1998, when they still were members of the AFC West.

Washington's season has gotten off to a disappointing start, with Robert Griffin III going down with an ankle injury in the club's lone win in Week #2 and backup Kirk Cousins guiding the team to two straight defeats - extending his personal losing streak to five starts in the process. The reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks are coming off their bye week after registering a thrilling 26-20 overtime triumph over Denver in Week #3. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson is off to a strong start, completing 60-of-87 passes for 651 yards with six touchdowns and just one interception over his first three games.

•ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2-1 SU, 2-1-0 ATS): Seattle will be without tight end Zach Miller, who is expected to miss several games after undergoing ankle surgery last week. Percy Harvin is proving to be a triple threat as he leads the team in both receptions (16) and receiving yards (106), has gained another 86 yards on six rushes and is averaging 20.1 yards on seven kickoff returns. Punter Jon Ryan was named the NFC Special Teams Player of the Month for September after averaging 48.3 yards on 12 punts.

•ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-3 SU, 2-2-0 ATS): Washington figures to put pressure on Wilson as it leads the National Football League with 11 sacks, including five by league co-leader Ryan Kerrigan. The linebacker is one-half sack away from becoming the eighth player in team history to record 30. Alfred Morris needs 156 rushing yards to pass Mike Thomas (3,359) for eighth place on the franchise list and two touchdowns on the ground to leap past Cliff Battles (23) and tie Earnest Byner (25) for seventh.

•PREGAME NOTES: Seattle has won each of its last eight appearances on Monday Night Football.... The Redskins signed CB Richard Crawford and S Jamarca Sanford on Monday after losing DBs DeAngelo Hall (Achilles) and Duke Ihenacho (heel) for the season in recent weeks.... Including the postseason, Washington has sold out a league-best 387 consecutive home games.... Left tackle Trent Williams expects to play after he said his right kneecap was slightly dislocated in the Giants game. Niles Paul expects to return from a concussion and fellow tight end Jordan Reed said he's "50-50" to play.... The Redskins have taken the last six regular-season meetings while losing all three postseason matchups in that span. They have dropped their last six night games.

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•KEY STATS
--SEATTLE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 25.5, OPPONENT 15.5.

--SEATTLE is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 25.0, OPPONENT 14.2.

--SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 27.5, OPPONENT 14.6.

--SEATTLE is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 18.6, OPPONENT 26.1.

--SEATTLE is 17-6 OVER (+10.4 Units) after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 23.2, OPPONENT 25.3.

--SEATTLE is 4-16 against the 1rst half line (-13.6 Units) in road games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 7.2, OPPONENT 15.2.

--SEATTLE is 20-43 against the 1rst half line (-27.3 Units) in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 8.6, OPPONENT 12.3.

--WASHINGTON is 27-48 ATS (-25.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 18.7, OPPONENT 23.1.

--WASHINGTON is 55-33 UNDER (+18.7 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 18.5, OPPONENT 20.8.

--WASHINGTON is 52-28 UNDER (+21.2 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 17.3, OPPONENT 23.6.

--WASHINGTON is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) in home games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 17.5, OPPONENT 18.6.

--WASHINGTON is 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 8.8, OPPONENT 6.9.

--WASHINGTON is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 7.0, OPPONENT 5.6.

•COACHING TRENDS
--PETE CARROLL is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 29.9, OPPONENT 13.4.

--PETE CARROLL is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 27.9, OPPONENT 14.2.

--PETE CARROLL is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 24.5, OPPONENT 18.3.

--PETE CARROLL is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 27.8, OPPONENT 21.8.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON is 6-6 against the spread versus SEATTLE since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 7-6 straight up against SEATTLE since 1992.
--7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--WASHINGTON is 8-5 versus the first half line when playing against SEATTLE since 1992.
--9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

•RECENT TRENDS
--SEA 4-0 ATS after accumulating more than 350 total yards.
--SEA is 10-0-1 ATS after accumulating more than 250 yards passing.
--Under is 7-1 in SEA last 8 versus the NFC.

--Under is 6-0 in WAS last 6 games in Week #5.
--Over is 5-1 in WAS L6 games after allowing more than 30 points.
--Over is 5-0-1 in WAS L6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing.

StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 42 times, while the underdog covered the spread 29 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 64 times, while the underdog won straight up 8 times. 65 games went under the total, while 17 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 65 times, while the underdog covered first half line 27 times. *EDGE against first half line =SEATTLE. 90 games went under first half total, while 44 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) - good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against an average rushing team (95-125 RY/game), after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.
(41-16 over the last 10 seasons.) (71.9%, +23.4 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (51-7 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.7
The average score in these games was: Team 27.9, Opponent 15.2 (Average point differential = +12.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 24 (41.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (114-97).
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Seahawks (2-1) @ Redskins (1-3)—Washington imploded in last game, turning ball over six times, converting 1-8 on 3rd down in 45-14 home loss to division rival Giants. Skins’ only win was over lowly Jaguars, now defending champs come in off bye. Seattle is 5-3 in last eight games as road favorite but lost only road game this year, at San Diego. Redskins is 3-4 in last nine games as a home dog; they won six of last nine series games- all three losses came in playoff games. NFC West teams are 5-5 vs spread outside division, 3-1 on road. NFC East teams are 7-4 vs spread, 3-2 as underdogs. Last three Washington games, two of three Seahawk games went over the total. Serious question: If you’re Pete Carroll, how much do you tell ESPN’s Jon Gruden in your production meeting, seeing as his brother coaches the Redskins?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Giants-Nationals
Fister is 4-0, 1.57 in his last four starts, 3-2, 2.98 in seven postseason starts; he is 1-1, 2.77 against San Francisco this season.

Bumgarner is 6-1, 2.16 in his last nine starts, 4-2, 3.02 in seven playoff starts, 0-1, 2.57 against Washington this season (two runs in seven IP).

Washington scored four runs in last three games, three runs in first two games of this series; taking Zimmerman out with two out in 9th inning Saturday is going to haunt this franchise, unless they come back and win the series.

Giants won last ten playoff games, an all-time record; they won World Series in 2010/2012. SF won its last five games overall, allowing seven runs.

Fister 18-7.........6-25 first inning
Bumgarner 20-14.......10-34 first inning

Cardinals-Dodgers
Ryu is 1-2, 4.43 in his last four starts; he's had shoulder issues. He is 1-0, 3.60 in two playoff starts, 0-1, 3.86 against the Cardinals this year.

Lackey is 1-1, 2.76 in his last three starts, 6-5, 3.03 in 16 postseason starts but he didn't pitch against the Dodgers this season.

Dodgers won six of last seven games, scoring 48 runs; they're in playoffs second year in row, after missing the three years before that. LA scored 44 runs in last six games.

St Louis is in playoffs for 4th year in row, 8th time in last 12 years-- they are 4-5 in last nine games overall, 4-1 in last five at home- their last home game was September 21.

Ryu 16-10.........4-26 first inning
Lackey 12-9/6-5.............8-32 first inning