Monday's Best Bet
October 9, 2017
NLDS Game 3 Best Bet
L.A. Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The L.A. Dodgers are up 2-0 in their NLDS series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and are hoping that their big move at the trade deadline in July can push them on through to the NLCS. L.A. gives the ball to Yu Darvish tonight, and while Darvish hasn't quite lived up to the lofty expectations the Dodgers organization and their fans had for them when he was brought it, all of that can be forgotten with a strong effort that leads to a W tonight.
It won't be easy though as Arizona sends their ace Zack Greinke to the hill, and down 0-2 in the series, the Diamondbacks will pull out all the stops they can in order to live to fight another day.
Bookmaker.eu Odds: L.A. (-111), Arizona (+101); Total set at 9
This series hasn't been a good one for pitchers so far and that's a little surprising given the first two games were played in a pitcher-friendly park like Dodgers Stadium.
Games 1 and 2 saw 14 and 13 runs scored combined, and the 7 HR's already hit in this series is indicative of how MLB has become a homer-happy league in 2017. Six of those seven HR's have been tallied by Arizona, so for them to have that many balls leave the yard and still be down 0-2 SU in the series and lose both of those games by at least three runs has to be a little disheartening. Yet it speaks to just how talented and deep this entire Dodgers lineup is from top to bottom and why they were the heavy favorites entering the NLDS.
With the series now shifting to a hitter-friendly park in Arizona, many bettors will have a tough time thinking the offensive barrage will slow down. Both bullpens have already gotten plenty of work in this series and even with yesterday's day off, there are probably a few guys – especially on Arizona's side – in the bullpen that would rather not make that trip to the mound tonight.
But Greinke had a rough outing in the Wild Card game (3.2 IP, 4 runs allowed on six hits) and another performance like that tonight and the rest of his Diamondbacks teammates might as well get their off-season plans finalized. That effort was also the last thing bettors remember about Greinke and it, along with the first two games having at least 13 runs scored is why VegasInsider.com shows about 75% of the money bet on tonight's total coming in on the high side of things.
The 'overs' have been the way to go throughout these playoffs so far as both Wildcard games cashed 'over' tickets, and of the respective ALDS and NLDS games played so far, the 'over' is 7-3. I've already touched on the2-0 O/U mark in this series, but with elimination games now at the forefront, it might be time for bettors to shift their thinking a little bit.
It's been rare for Greinke to have rough starts in consecutive outings since after the first month of the year, and while he's definitely struggled down the stretch with 4 IP or fewer in his last three starts, you know he'll want to be a big contributor in getting a W tonight against his former team.
Greinke's last two starts against L.A. ended in 3-1 and 8-1 Arizona wins and he only allowed four hits in each of those starts (one at home, one on the road) in six and seven innings pitched. He's got a strong ideal of how to attack this deep Dodgers lineup and he's been quite successful all year against them, outside of his first appearance vs them in mid-April when the Dodgers got to him early in a 7-1 game.
Even with that though, in four Greinke starts vs L.A. this year, none of the four games have ever finished with more than 9 total runs scored (games of 4, 9, 5, and 8) and with the stakes much higher tonight, I do believe the good Greinke shows up in spades.
Darvish only had one start vs. Arizona this year and it was decent. L.A. ended up winning that game 8-6, but Darvish went five full innings, allowed just five hits and 2 ER and struck out 10. It was his third career start against this Arizona franchise and in each one of them he's struck out double-digit batters. That's the type of stuff L.A. expected to get from him on a consistent basis when they traded for him, and it's the type of stuff they hope to get from Darvish tonight.
While the familiarity with Dodgers hitters should actually work in Greinke's favor, it's the unfamiliarity Diamondbacks hitters have against Darvish that should work out in Darvish's favor tonight. He can be a spectacular pitcher when he is on, and the postseason stage isn't too big for him after he's got some experience in this setting the past few years. If Greinke is pitching a gem on the other side, Darvish has to be up to the task of matching him if L.A wants to wrap up this series tonight and not give Arizona any sort of life.
So with the first two games of this series in a pitcher-friendly ballpark going well 'over' the number, I'm looking for that same “reverse” affect to happen in Game 3 tonight in a hitter-friendly park. A total of 9 is a little high for the capabilities of these two starters as Chase Field and the HR barrage we've seen in Games 1 and 2 have impacted this number.
Greinke's starts against L.A. this year were only saddled with a total of '9' once this year and it was in early August game in Arizona. That game ended 3-2 in favor of L.A and tonight's game should have a similarly low-scoring result.
With L.A. 0-3-1 O/U in theri last four on the road, 1-5 O/U in their last six on the road against a winning team, and 1-3-1 O/U in their last five away from home during October, I've got no problem going against the grain and taking the low side of this total tonight.
Add in Greinke's 2-6-1 O/U run against division opponents and a 3-7-1 O/U run overall, and I think he bounces back in a big way after a rough outing in the Wild Card game. Darvish will be up to the task of going toe-to-toe with him as this game likely finishes with 7 or 8 runs combined tops.
Best Bet: Under 9 runs (-101)