Monday 10/09/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Pesos]

NFL Trend Report:

MINNESOTA (2 - 2) at CHICAGO (1 - 3) - 10/9/2017, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
Minnesota is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota


MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

 

[Pesos]

NFL Week 5

Vikings (2-2) @ Bears (1-3) — Rookie QB Trubisky makes his NFL debut here; he started for one year at North Carolina- UNC went 8-5 LY. Vikings won four of last five games against the Bears,, but lost 8 of their last 9 visits to Chicago, with lone win 2 years ago. Minnesota scored 9-7 points in their losses this year, 29-34 in their wins; they lost 26-9 at Pittsburgh in only road game this season— backup QB Keenum is 10-17 as an NFL starter. Chicago is 1-3, but both their home games were decided by 6 points- they were outscored 47-7 in first half of their last two losses, which is why the QB change was made. Bears are 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight games as road underdogs. Under is 3-1 in both teams’ games this year.

 

[Pesos]

Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Vikings at Bears

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3, 40)

The Chicago Bears have made a quarterback change while the Minnesota Vikings hope to follow suit on Monday when the NFC North rivals meet at Soldier Field. Second overall draft pick Mitchell Trubisky will make his NFL debut after offseason acquisition Mike Glennon committed four turnovers in Chicago's 35-14 loss to Green Bay on Sept. 28, while Sam Bradford aims to return after sustaining a knee injury in Minnesota's season opener.

"I feel like I'm ready," the 23-year-old Trubisky said. "I'm excited. I'm just going to take it day by day and prepare as hard as I possibly can for every single look and situation we can get on Monday." Trubisky faces a tall order against an aggressive Vikings' defense, which sacked Matthew Stafford six times in a 14-7 loss to Detroit on Sunday and ranks No. 1 in the league in third-down defense (25.6 percent conversion rate). The Vikings were dealt a brutal blow with the season-ending ACL injury to promising rookie Dalvin Cook in that contest, while Case Keenum completed just 16 of 30 passes for 219 yards. Bradford was limited in his return to practice on Thursday, but coach Mike Zimmer told reporters that "If he's ready to play, he'll play."

POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (-1.5) - Chicago (5.5) + home field (-3) = Minnesota -1

LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened as 2-point road chalk and that number has been bet up to 3. The total hit the betting boards at 40.5 and has been bet down to 40.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “Biggest question up on the air is the status on Vikings’ QB Sam Bradford, who is just 1-2 SU and ATS in his career adjacent the Bears. Meanwhile, backup QB Case Keenum is just 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS against division foes, including 0-6 ATS as a favorite. The other question is whether Chicago can improve on its 5-12 ATS mark at home of late in Monday night games.” - Marc Lawrence

INJURY REPORT:

Vikings - RB Jerick McKinnon (Probable, Ankle), S Andrew Sendejo (Questionable, Shoulder), DT Shamar Stephen (Questionable, Back), LB Eric Kendricks (Questionable, Illness), G Danny Isidora (Questionable, Knee), QB Sam Bradford (Questionable, Knee), T Rashod Hill (Questionable, Knee), DT Sharrif Floyd (Questionable Week 10, Knee), RB Dalvin Cook (I-R, Knee).

Bears - DE Akiem Hicks (Questionable, Foot), QB Mark Sanchez (Questionable, Neck), C Hroniss Grasu (Questionable, Hand), LB Willie Young (Out For Season, Tricep), LB Danny Trevathan (Eligible Week 6, Possible Suspension), LB Jerrell Freeman (Questionable Week 10, Concussion).

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U):Signed to a three-year, $15 million deal, Latavius Murray finds himself thrust into the lead-back role after seeing Cook exit following his non-contact injury. Murray, who rushed seven times for 21 yards after the rookie departed, admitted this week that his ankle is not 100 percent following offseason surgery. While Minnesota lost one impact player, it will see the return of another as Michael Floyd has served his four-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. "I'm just going to be aggressive," the 6-foot-3, 220-pound Floyd said. "I'm an aggressive player. I'm going to go out there and make plays. That's just what I do. That's in me, and that's never going to stop."

ABOUT THE BEARS (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U):Chicago continues to rely heavily on its backfield, with Jordan Howard rolling up four rushing touchdowns while speedy Tarik Cohen ranks fourth among rookies with 331 yards from scrimmage and leads all NFL running backs with 24 receptions. Howard gashed Minnesota's defense in both encounters last season, rolling up 202 yards from scrimmage in a 20-10 win on Oct. 31 and adding 135 yards rushing in the finale. Cohen has 10 more receptions than Kendall Wright, who leads a banged-up wideout corps with 154 yards receiving. Tight end Zach Miller has been limited to just three catches on five targets in the last two games after reeling in 10 receptions in the first two.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
* Under is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 games in October.
* Under is 7-1 in Bears last 8 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Vikings at a rate of 60 percent and the Under is picking up 51 percent of the totals action.

 

[Pesos]

MNF - Vikings at Bears

LAST WEEK

The Vikings (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) have alternated wins and losses throughout their first four games of the season. Minnesota experienced its first home loss following victories over New Orleans and Tampa Bay as the Vikings were tripped up by the Lions last Sunday, 14-7 as 2 ½-point favorites.

Quarterback Sam Bradford remained sidelined with a left knee injury as Case Keenum couldn’t capitalize off a career-day in a 369-yard, three-touchdown effort against Tampa Bay in Week 3. The Lions’ defense limited Keenum to 219 yards, while Minnesota held the ball for only 23:33 as the Vikings lost for the third straight time to the Lions.

Minnesota suffered a huge blow to its backfield as second-round pick Dalvin Cook tore his ACL and is out for the remainder of the season. The former Florida State standout scored Minnesota’s lone touchdown against Detroit, while racking up 444 yards and two scores in his first four games. The Vikings are receiving consistency from their top wideout as Stefon Diggs broke the 90-yard mark for the third time this season by hauling in five receptions for 98 yards.

The Bears (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) put up their second dud performance away from Soldier Field this season as Green Bay blew out Chicago in Week 4 by a 35-14 count. A brief weather delay couldn’t slow down the Packers’ offense as Aaron Rodgers torched the Chicago defense for four touchdown passes.

Mike Glennon had his final opportunity to retain the starting quarterback job in Chicago, but the former Buccaneer was intercepted twice and lost two fumbles. Chicago dropped to 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS in its past 10 road games since the start of the 2016 season, while scoring 17 points or less in nine of those contests.

OUT OF HIBERNATION

With Glennon’s struggles, head coach John Fox decided to pull the plug on the free agent signing and start top draft pick Mitchell Trubisky. The former North Carolina Tar Heel will get the Monday night spotlight for his first career start after completing 68% of his passes and throwing for three touchdowns in the preseason. Chicago can use a jolt on offense as the Bears are averaging 306 yards per game, while putting up 188.8 yards per game passing, which ranks 27th in the league heading into Week 5.

PURPLE PAIN

After starting last season with victories at Tennessee and Carolina, the Vikings have been a disaster on the road. Minnesota has dropped six of its past seven away contests, while covering only once, coming in a 25-16 triumph at Jacksonville last December. The Vikings lost all three road games inside the NFC North last season, which is in stark contrast to 2015, when Minnesota defeated all three division rivals on the highway.

SERIES HISTORY

The home teams won each matchup last season, as Chicago knocked off Minnesota in a Monday night affair, 20-10 as 5 ½-point underdogs. The Vikings had lost the previous week at Philadelphia for their first defeat of the season following a 5-0 start, as Minnesota didn’t score its first touchdown until the fourth quarter after falling behind, 20-3. Soldier Field has been the house of horrors for the Vikings, losing eight of the last nine visits to the Windy City, including a 1-3 ATS mark as a road favorite in this span. The home team has owned this series the last five seasons, going 9-1, including Minnesota’s 38-10 rout of Chicago in the 2017 season finale.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The favorites have fared well on Mondays this season by compiling a 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS record. Minnesota looks to keep that trend going although the Vikings have struggled in the Monday night spotlight by posting a dreadful 1-7 SU/ATS record since 2009. Six of those defeats came on the road, while twice losing at Soldier Field. Meanwhile, the Bears have dominated on Mondays, going 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS in their last 14 opportunities dating back to 2009, including eight outright victories in the underdog role.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson points out that the Bears are a different team when playing at home, “The Bears are 1-3 and Glennon has five interceptions this season as he has completed over 66 percent of his passes and Chicago nearly had an upset over Atlanta in Week 1 that would have the team sitting at 2-2. The lone win came against a formidable Pittsburgh team and the Bears have been impressive in both home games against quality teams.”

On the Vikings’ side, quarterback play hasn’t been the issue in spite of the 2-2 start, “There is some optimism that Bradford could return for the Vikings this week after sitting out the past three games following a great opening week performance. His knee pain persists, but the hope is that it will be manageable. Keenum has played well, yet to throw an interception and currently the #2 ranked player in Total QBR, just ahead of Tom Brady and Matt Ryan while 11th in the league in QB Rating.”

Handicapper Vince Akins provides a strong trend that fades Chicago. “The Bears are 0-15 ATS since December 2011 at home after a game in which they had a rushing touchdown and did not win by 24-plus points.” Last season, Chicago posted an 0-3 SU/ATS record in this situation, which included a home Monday night loss to Philadelphia.

BOOKMAKER’S TAKE

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu says the money is currently riding on the road team, “Sharp money has slowly moved this number north as we are currently dealing the key number of -3. At this point, we're expecting Bradford to be under center for the Vikings, and that will likely prompt the play button for the public on that side. Right now, we have 70 percent of the tickets and 72 percent of the money on Minnesota.”

 

[Pesos]

NHL Trend Report

2:00 PM
COLORADO vs. BOSTON
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Colorado's last 15 games
Boston is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Boston is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games at home

2:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. NY ISLANDERS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of St. Louis's last 15 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Islanders last 8 games at home
NY Islanders are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games at home

4:00 PM
NEW JERSEY vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
New Jersey is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing New Jersey

8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. TORONTO
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Chicago is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games
Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Chicago

8:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. TAMPA BAY
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Washington's last 17 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing at home against Washington

10:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Edmonton is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home

11:00 PM
CALGARY vs. ANAHEIM
Calgary is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Calgary is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Anaheim
Anaheim is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary
Anaheim is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games

 

[Pesos]

NHL Long Sheet

COLORADO (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at BOSTON (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/9/2017, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 23-61 ATS (+105.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 7-26 ATS (+42.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 117-93 ATS (+217.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1996.
COLORADO is 185-218 ATS (+471.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
COLORADO is 12-7 ATS (+23.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 12-17 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 2-2 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 2-2-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.2 Units)

______________________________________________________________

ST LOUIS (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at NY ISLANDERS (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/9/2017, 1:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY ISLANDERS is 3-1 (+2.4 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
NY ISLANDERS is 3-1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.9 Units)

______________________________________________________________

NEW JERSEY (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) at BUFFALO (0-1-0-1, 1 pts.) - 10/9/2017, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 19-11 ATS (+31.5 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 5-1 (+3.8 Units) against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY is 5-1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.4 Units)

______________________________________________________________

CHICAGO (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at TORONTO (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/9/2017, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-0 (+4.1 Units) against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.6 Units)

______________________________________________________________

WASHINGTON (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/9/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 126-65 ATS (+19.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 13-25 ATS (-13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-1 (+3.8 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 5-1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.1 Units)

______________________________________________________________

WINNIPEG (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) at EDMONTON (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/9/2017, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 182-174 ATS (-34.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
EDMONTON is 78-89 ATS (-65.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 5-1 (+4.1 Units) against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-1-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.0 Units)

______________________________________________________________

CALGARY (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at ANAHEIM (1-0-0-1, 3 pts.) - 10/9/2017, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 13-1 (+12.5 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 13-1-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.0 Units)

 

[Pesos]

Colorado @ Boston
Road team won 9 of last 10 Colorado-Boston games; Avalanche won four of last six, winning last five visits to Beantown. Under is 7-2 in last nine series games. Colorado split its first two games this season, both on road (over 1-0-1). Bruins won their opener 4-3 over Nashville at home Thursday.

St. Louis @ NY Islanders
Home side won 7 of last 10 St Louis-Islander games; New York won three of last four meetings (under 3-1). Blues lost 2-1/3-2 in their last two visits here. St Louis won its first two games this season, scoring nine goals (over 2-0). Islanders split their first two games (over 1-1), beating Buffalo 6-3 at home Saturday.

New Jersey @ Buffalo
Devils won eight of last nine games with Buffalo, winning last four visits to western NY by a combined score of 11-5. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games. New Jersey won its opener 4-1 at home over Colorado. Sabres lost their first two games 6-3/3-2so (over 1-0-1).

Chicago @ Toronto
Chicago won its last five games with Toronto; last two went OT/SO. Blackhawks won 4-1/2-1ot in their last two visits here. Under is 4-2 in last six series games. Chicago scored 15 goals in winning its first two games, both at home (over 2-0). Maple Leafs also scored 15 goals in winning their first two games (over 2-0), one at home, one on road.


Washington @ Tampa Bay
Washington won 7 of its last 8 games with Tampa Bay, winning three of last four visits here. Over is 6-3 in last nine series games. Caps scored 11 goals in winning their first two games, including a SO win in Ottawa (over 2-0). Lightning split a pair of games with Florida to open their season (over 2-0)- home team won both games.


Winnipeg @ Edmonton
Edmonton won its last four games with Winnipeg; road team won four of last five meetings. Under is 8-2 in last ten series games. Teams split last four series games played here. Jets lost 6-3/7-2 in their first two games this season (over 2-0). Oilers split their first two games, with home team winning both (under 2-0).


Calgary @ Anaheim
Anaheim won its last seven games with Calgary; they swept the Flames out of the playoffs last spring. Calgary lost its last five visits to Orange County by combined score of 21-9 (under is 2-0-2 in last four). Flames split their first two games (over 1-1), with home team winning both. Ducks split their first two games, both of which were at home (over 1-1).

 

[Pesos]

NHL Picks and Betting Tips

COLORADO AVALANCHE @ BOSTON BRUINS

Colorado and Boston kick off the trio of afternoon games to start the holiday. The Avs haven’t given up an even-strength goal through their first two games which is a testament to how strong their goaltending has been between Varlamov and Bernier, because the defense has given up 78 shots on goal and looked leaky. The penalty kill, in particular, has given up five goals and had a lot of trouble clearing pucks from the zone which has led to increased scoring scores against and only a 50% successful kill rate.

Injuries continue to mount early in the season for Boston but they should get some help today as defenseman Torey Krug is probable to return. He made it through a full practice on Sunday while wearing a full face shield. It sounds like Bergeron will miss another game. He wore a non-contact jersey in practice yesterday and had to leave early. Cassidy is calling him day-to-day but it doesn’t look good for today.

This line at -210 is a little inflated so we’re going to back the big ugly road dog to start off the day. It can be hard to pull the trigger on a game like this but I’ve learned to trust the numbers. Just remember we’re going to lose this bet more often than we win but if we continue making bets with an edge on the house, it will result in a net profit for us in the long run.

ST. LOUIS BLUES @ NY ISLANDERS

The Blues are off to a 2-0 start with wins over Pittsburgh and Dallas, despite being without four regulars in the lineup. Mike Yeo has them playing a new up-tempo style to keep teams on their heels with the defense pushing the pace to jump into the play. Of the nine goals scored by the Blues so far, five have come from defensemen.

While that has helped to generate more offense, they’ve given up 73 shots in two games and relied on Jake Allen, who has been brilliant. Looks like he’s picked up right where he left off in last year’s playoffs.

No line is available here yet but we have all the significant info we need with injuries and goaltenders. Based on my range above (-144/-149), if New York opens -136 or lower then we’ll play the Isles. If they open -157 or higher we’ll play St. Louis. In between is no play. I don’t play many totals throughout the year but this is one where I might be interested in the Over. I’ll tweet out an update later.

NEW JERSEY DEVILS @ BUFFALO SABRES

We’ll want to keep an eye on the morning skate for this one as Palmieri and Stafford are both questionable. Neither was able to practice Sunday but will travel with the team for this afternoon’s game. Coach Hynes said it’s possible one or both could be a game-time decision.

Buffalo has scored five goals this season in two games and all of them have been scored by their top line of Kane, Eichel and Pominville. To try and jumpstart the secondary offense, Housley is flipping Sam Reinhart and Ryan O’Reilly at the second and third line center positions today. The Sabres have looked incredibly fast in their first two games and are displaying more of a shooting mentality but they’ve had some trouble with the smaller details and execution of Housley’s new system.

Robin Lehner was pulled in Saturday’s start after allowing four goals on 16 shots in 27 minutes. Chad Johnson looked good in relief stopping 15 of 16 and Housley could go with him today, although he hasn’t tipped his hand either way so we’ll have to wait for the morning skate.

This will be a key game I’ll update on Twitter later this morning. My range above (-130/-131) is with Palmieri and Stafford in the lineup but there’s a good chance at least one of them won’t play. If either Stafford or Palmieri are out and Lehner starts, then we’ll have enough value to fire on Buffalo.

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS @ TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

The Hawks and Leafs are setting some early history as both teams have scored 15 goals in their first two games. I’ve talked about Toronto’s depth and their ability to roll four solid lines and it’s showing as 12 different goal scorers have already found the back of the net. Chicago’s depth has also been impressive as they have nine different goal scorers.

That Hawks depth will be tested in this one as second-line center Nick Schmaltz will miss at least the next two games. Anisimov, who centered Kane’s line last year, will jump back up into that role tonight. Tanner Kero is expected to return after a one game absence and will likely center the third line with possibly Tommy Wingels slotting in as the fourth centerman.

Of note, this is a front-end of a back-to-back for Chicago as they travel to Montreal on Tuesday. Backup goaltender Anton Forsberg will likely get one of the starts and I think it will be tonight. Crawford is 7-0-2 with a 1.55 GAA and .951 Sv% in his career versus the Canadiens so it would make sense for Quenneville to want to use him tomorrow. Now, those career stats for a goalie against a particular team are really nonsense and have no effect on the next game, but coaches love to use them as a reason.

My above range (-123/-143) accounts for Forsberg starting. It’s wider than usual so it’s unlikely we’ll have any side value here, but let’s not overthink this one too much. Look to play the Over (probably 6) when it comes out.

WASHINGTON CAPITALS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

The Capitals burned me on Saturday night when they took down Montreal. Or should I say Alex Ovechkin burned me. If I knew it was Vladimir Putin’s birthday on Saturday I wouldn’t have bet on Montreal (I’m joking… kinda). Ovechkin gave him a nice birthday gift with a four goal outburst, giving him seven in the first two games. He’s the first player to record back-to-back hat tricks to open a season in 100 years (the NHL’s inaugural season in 1917-18).

Tampa Bay gave up a whopping 84 shots in a home-and-home with Florida over the weekend but managed to earn a split thanks to the stellar play of Vasilevskiy. He gave up eight goals but was hung out to dry on most of them and the score could have been much worse if not for him. For a team whose biggest issue last season was giving up quality scoring chances, it’s a bit of a concern to see them repeating those same mistakes.

Holtby gets the nod for the Caps and I would expect Vasilevskiy for the Bolts, although I’ve been unable to confirm. No injuries in this one so shouldn’t be anything else to look at here. This line opened within my range but has seen overnight Washington money to take it down to -106. This is currently outside my range enough to warrant a bet on Tampa Bay but I’m going to wait until I see Vasilevskiy confirmed in net. If he is and the price remains this low, I’ll definitely be adding Tampa Bay later this morning.

WINNIPEG JETS @ EDMONTON OILERS

Connor Hellebuyck will get his first start of the season after watching Steve Mason give up 11 goals over 11 periods. Mason actually hasn’t been too bad but a lack of discipline and a seriously loose defense continue to be a problem for the Jets early this season as they had several blown coverages down low Saturday night against Calgary.

The Oilers certainly didn’t look anything like their first game as they were punched in the mouth by a scrappy Vancouver team on Saturday night. Talbot was pulled after allowing three goals on just seven shots and he’s eager to get back in the crease for this one tonight.

Oilers winger Anton Slepyshev is expected to make his debut after being limited in the preseason with an ankle injury and then an illness. He practiced on the second line with Lucic and Nugent-Hopkins. The Oilers are expecting a big step in his development this year and he could be a big key to increasing their secondary scoring. Third-line winger Drake Caggiula will be out with an undisclosed injury. Zach Kassian will slide into his spot on the wing. Look for the Oilers to be focused for this one and take advantage of a struggling Jets team. I really like the Oilers here but we’re getting another slightly inflated line on the public Oilers so looks like we’ll be sitting this one out.

CALGARY FLAMES @ ANAHEIM DUCKS

The only narrative you’ll hear about for this game today is how Calgary has no chance because they’ve never, ever, won a game in Anaheim, losing an NHL-record 29 straight times.

What a story it would be if the ageless wonder, Jaromir Jagr, suited up for his first game as a Flame and helped end that ominous streak. Well, it could happen. Jagr is expected to play in either tonight’s game or Wednesday in Los Angeles but we’ll have to wait for a bit before we find out for sure.

Anaheim has impressively managed to secure three of a possible four points so far while missing a good chunk of their regular starting lineup. Nick Ritchie was the latest casualty as he was a late scratch before Saturday night’s game.

Good news is it appears help is on the way. Getzlaf returned to practice for the first time on Sunday and felt good. Ritchie was on the ice, as well, and should return. Even Patrick Eaves made it through his first full practice, although he won’t be returning tonight.

I don’t like the Flames chances tonight with Getzlaf returning but I have a feeling there’s going to be some value on Calgary when this line opens, especially if Jagr plays. This might end up being one of those plug your nose bets as you hit the submit button. I’ll update on Twitter, accordingly.

 

[Pesos]

NHL Situational Betting Tips October 9-15, 2017

We are back with a new round of NHL situational betting tips! The season is less than a week old, but we’re going to take a look at some good betting opportunities for the next seven days. We’ll be doing this every week at BangTheBook.com, so stay with us as we try to isolate those good spots, whether they are revenge, travel, letdown, sandwich, or any of those other key games that we look for in the daily sports.

You’ll get the hang of it as we go along, but this is an article that we have had a lot of success with along the way. Early on in the season, we’re still getting a feel for these teams and a lot of teams are still very fresh and shouldn’t fall victim to as many of these spots, but, as the season goes along, we’re going to make money isolating these games.

Here are the situational betting tips:

Monday October 9

Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks – The Calgary Flames played well against the Anaheim Ducks in the first round of the 2017 NHL playoffs, but were sent packing with a sweep. The Flames lost the first three games by just one goal, including a Game 3 overtime loss and then lost 3-1 in the finale. It was a nail biter until the end. Well, the Flames kick off a two-game swing through California by looking for revenge against the Ducks. The Flames will be an intriguing underdog as a result.

Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs – The Blackhawks are in a pretty tricky spot on Monday night. This is the front-end of a back-to-back with a visit to Montreal on Tuesday. The Blackhawks also play four games in six days to start the week. One of the biggest edges to be found by playing on these situational spots is that we can often predict when backup goaltenders will start. That won’t be the case in this game, but coming off of home games against Pittsburgh and Columbus makes this an interesting situation. Furthermore, for Toronto, a team that got a taste of the playoffs last season, this is a barometer to see how the Leafs stack up early in the season. With 15 goals in two games, it seems like things are going well.

 

[Pesos]

COLORADO @ BOSTON
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Colorado is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston's last 9 games when playing Colorado

ST. LOUIS @ NY ISLANDERS
St. Louis is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of St. Louis's last 15 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
NY Islanders is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

NEW JERSEY @ BUFFALO
New Jersey is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Buffalo's last 13 games at home

CHICAGO @ TORONTO
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Chicago is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

WASHINGTON @ TAMPA BAY
Washington is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

WINNIPEG @ EDMONTON
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Edmonton's last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
Edmonton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg

CALGARY @ ANAHEIM
Calgary is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Calgary is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Anaheim
Anaheim is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Anaheim is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary

 

[Pesos]

StatFox Super Situations

WASHINGTON at TAMPA BAY
Play On - Road teams against the money line (WASHINGTON) after a blowout win by 4 goals or more against opponent after scoring 4 goals or more in 2 straight games 23-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 74.2% | 17.6 units )

WASHINGTON at TAMPA BAY
Play On - Home Favorites against the money line (TAMPA BAY) after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after a 2 game unbeaten streak 272-137 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.5% | 72.1 units )

WASHINGTON at TAMPA BAY
Play On - Home Favorites against the money line (TAMPA BAY) after a game where they failed to cover the spread against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games 272-137 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.5% | 72.1 units )

 

[Pesos]

NHL Projected Starting Goalies:

51 Colorado Avalanche +165 Over 5½ -105 Varlamov: 1-0-0, 2.00, 0.949 (2-4-1, 2.44, .922)
52 Boston Bruins -190 Under 5½ -115 *Rask: 1-0-0, 3.01, 0.897 (1-4-1, 1.83, .937)

53 St. Louis Blues -105 Over 5½ +105 *Allen: 2-0-0, 2.97, 0.918 (1-1-0, 3.91, .866)
54 New York Islanders -115 Under 5½ -125 *Greiss: 0-1-0, 9.42, 0.808 (5-2-0, 2.35, .918)

55 New Jersey Devils +115 Over 5 -150 *Schneider: 1-0-0, 1.00, 0.976 (7-3-2, 1.56, .933)
56 Buffalo Sabres -135 Under 5 +130 Johnson: 0-0-0, 1.93, 0.938 (2-2-0, 2.01, .927)

57 Chicago Blackhawks +110 Over 6½ +100 Forsberg: (last season) 0-1-0, 4.10, .852 (1st start vs. Tor)
58 Toronto Maple Leafs -130 Under 6½ -120 *Andersen: 2-0-0, 3.50, 0.903 (1-2-3, 2.72, .914)

59 Washington Capitals -115 Over 5½ -115 Grubauer: (last season) 13-6-2, 2.04, .926 (3-0-0, 2.09, .935)
60 Tampa Bay Lightning -105 Under 5½ -105 Vasilevskiy: 1-1-0, 4.08, 0.905 (0-3-0, 4.38, .874)

61 Winnipeg Jets +140 Over 5½ -125 Hellebuyck: 0-0-0, 6.19, 0.818 (0-4-0, 4.76, .857)
62 Edmonton Oilers -160 Under 5½ +105 *Talbot: 1-1-0, 2.24, 0.912 (5-1-0, 1.84, .945)

63 Calgary Flames +110 Over 5½ +105 *Smith: 1-1-0, 2.52, 0.931 (12-8-3, 2.55, .917)
64 Anaheim Ducks -130 Under 5½ -125 *Gibson: 1-0-1, 3.48, 0.896 (7-1-0, 1.84, .926)

 

[Pesos]

Dave Cokin ; NHL

NJ +115

 

[Pesos]

Jack Brayman ; MLB

Chicago Cubs

 

[Pesos]

Eric Schroeder ; MLB

Houston Under

 

[Pesos]

Joey Juice ; MLB

Houston

 

[Pesos]

Mike Lundin ; NHL

Buffalo -126

 

[Pesos]

Brandon Lee ; MLB

Arizona +105

 

[Pesos]

Jack Jones ; MLB

Boston +112

 

[Pesos]

Larry ness ; NHL

TB -106