Trace Adams
Monday's comp play goes late night tonight as I lay the road wood with the Rams over the Raiders.
Welcome back Chucky! Jon Gruden is back at the helm in the Black Hole, and the problem tonight is he is up against one of the better teams in either conference in the Los Angeles Rams.
Sean McVay has the Rams humming, and I don't see this Raiders edition now sans their top defender Kahlil Mack slowing down Jared Goff, Todd Gurley et-al tonight, even at home.
Oakland has been a serious money-rain when playing the NFC, as they are on a 2-8-2 slide their last dozen games against the conference, and they are only 10-16 when playing at home in the underdog role.
The Rams did cover 6 of 9 away from home last year, as they were able to average quite close (29.1 points) to 30 points per game last year.
Expect LA to get out to a lead, then expect Derek Carr to press in comeback mode as he coughs it up to the staunch LA defense.
This one is a definite TD winner for the Rams over the Raiders.
3* L.A. RAMS
Monday's comp play goes late night tonight as I lay the road wood with the Rams over the Raiders.
Welcome back Chucky! Jon Gruden is back at the helm in the Black Hole, and the problem tonight is he is up against one of the better teams in either conference in the Los Angeles Rams.
Sean McVay has the Rams humming, and I don't see this Raiders edition now sans their top defender Kahlil Mack slowing down Jared Goff, Todd Gurley et-al tonight, even at home.
Oakland has been a serious money-rain when playing the NFC, as they are on a 2-8-2 slide their last dozen games against the conference, and they are only 10-16 when playing at home in the underdog role.
The Rams did cover 6 of 9 away from home last year, as they were able to average quite close (29.1 points) to 30 points per game last year.
Expect LA to get out to a lead, then expect Derek Carr to press in comeback mode as he coughs it up to the staunch LA defense.
This one is a definite TD winner for the Rams over the Raiders.
3* L.A. RAMS
Tommy Brunson
For Monday, let's roll with the Dodgers on the Run Line to dispose of the Reds.
This is a bit of a revenge spot for Los Angeles, as they have lost all 4 of this year's season series meetings against Cincy, believe it or not.
The Dodgers just took a big 2 of 3 off of the Rockies in Colorado, and they now won 11 of their past 15 games overall as they look to take the division title for another year.
The Reds have dropped 5 of 7 overall, and they will send Cody Reed out to the hill with his 0-2 mark, and the team is 0-3 when he starts this season.
Alex Wood is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 5 career starts against Cincinnati, and he comes into this start unbeaten over his last 4 starts.
Dodgers to take this one by at least 2 runs.
4* L.A. DODGERS -1 1/2 RUNS
For Monday, let's roll with the Dodgers on the Run Line to dispose of the Reds.
This is a bit of a revenge spot for Los Angeles, as they have lost all 4 of this year's season series meetings against Cincy, believe it or not.
The Dodgers just took a big 2 of 3 off of the Rockies in Colorado, and they now won 11 of their past 15 games overall as they look to take the division title for another year.
The Reds have dropped 5 of 7 overall, and they will send Cody Reed out to the hill with his 0-2 mark, and the team is 0-3 when he starts this season.
Alex Wood is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 5 career starts against Cincinnati, and he comes into this start unbeaten over his last 4 starts.
Dodgers to take this one by at least 2 runs.
4* L.A. DODGERS -1 1/2 RUNS
Eric Schroeder
When the Tampa Bay Rays acquired Tommy Pham from the St. Louis Cardinals, it was a steal. The Rays built for the future, and they got themselves a star.
Tonight Tampa Bay hopes Pham can keep his hot-hitting ways alive, as he takes a 13-game hitting streak into this matchup with the Cleveland Indians tonight. Meanwhile, Matt Duffy leads the Rays with 138 hits this year and his .297 batting average ranks 11th in the American League. Brandon Lowe has been hot as well, with four home runs and nine RBIs while slugging .862 over his past 10 games for Tampa Bay.
The Rays have won three in a row and are 8-2 over their last 10 games, a span that has seen them hit .293 and outscore foes by 29 runs.
Take the Rays plus the money and don't bother listing pitchers.
4* RAYS
When the Tampa Bay Rays acquired Tommy Pham from the St. Louis Cardinals, it was a steal. The Rays built for the future, and they got themselves a star.
Tonight Tampa Bay hopes Pham can keep his hot-hitting ways alive, as he takes a 13-game hitting streak into this matchup with the Cleveland Indians tonight. Meanwhile, Matt Duffy leads the Rays with 138 hits this year and his .297 batting average ranks 11th in the American League. Brandon Lowe has been hot as well, with four home runs and nine RBIs while slugging .862 over his past 10 games for Tampa Bay.
The Rays have won three in a row and are 8-2 over their last 10 games, a span that has seen them hit .293 and outscore foes by 29 runs.
Take the Rays plus the money and don't bother listing pitchers.
4* RAYS
Jack Brayman
I'm on a 56-40 run with complimentary plays, after sweeping my Bonus Plays over the weekend, UNLV on Saturday night and the Seahawks on Sunday.
My Bonus Play takes us to Kansas City and the American League Central, where I like the Royals to get it done over the bumbling Chicago White Sox.
Both of these teams have endured treacherous seasons, and the Royals are actually in worst shape than Chicago, standings-wise. But the South Siders have lost five straight and seven of 10, thanks to a dismal pitching output by a staff that has a 5.00 ERA in that span. They've been outscored by 21 runs over their last 10 games.
Kansas City has won six of 10, is hitting .265 in that time frame and has outscored its opponents by 16 runs. Leading the offensive charge has been Adalberto Mondesi, who has three home runs and seven RBIs while slugging .692 over his past 10 games for Kansas City.
Let's lay the cheap price with the Royals tonight, as they topple the Sox.
4* ROYALS
I'm on a 56-40 run with complimentary plays, after sweeping my Bonus Plays over the weekend, UNLV on Saturday night and the Seahawks on Sunday.
My Bonus Play takes us to Kansas City and the American League Central, where I like the Royals to get it done over the bumbling Chicago White Sox.
Both of these teams have endured treacherous seasons, and the Royals are actually in worst shape than Chicago, standings-wise. But the South Siders have lost five straight and seven of 10, thanks to a dismal pitching output by a staff that has a 5.00 ERA in that span. They've been outscored by 21 runs over their last 10 games.
Kansas City has won six of 10, is hitting .265 in that time frame and has outscored its opponents by 16 runs. Leading the offensive charge has been Adalberto Mondesi, who has three home runs and seven RBIs while slugging .692 over his past 10 games for Kansas City.
Let's lay the cheap price with the Royals tonight, as they topple the Sox.
4* ROYALS
SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP
Event: (479) New York Jets at (480) Detroit Lions
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 10, 2018 7PM EDT
Play: New York Jets 7.0 (-113)
The Lions should have a hard time running the ball against the Jets and this always makes it a challenge to cover a number. Without the ability to eat clock by running the ball, the opponent will get more possessions and hence more opportunities to cover. We are grabbing the big number.
Anchoring this one is a very powerful system that makes handicapping sense.
In week one, teams that had FEWER regular season wins than their opponent the previous season and are facing a non-divisional that did not make the playoffs are 84-46-5 ATS (64.6%) . The record of 84-46-5 has a p-value of about 1 in 2000, which means that a flip of 130 coins will result in at least 84 in about 1 of 2000 trials. From this we can conclude that a record of 84-46-5 is very unlikely to be the result random noise.
So, in a week-one non-divisional match-up between two weak teams, take the one that had fewer wins the previous regular season. This could be the result of bettors placing too much emphasis of the results from the previous season, it could be the result of the team that had more wins not taking their non-divisional opponent seriously enough and it could be the result of the team win fewer wins having more motivation to prove themselves in their opener. The truth is probably a combination of all three.
For the Jets, we see that they qualify for an interesting league-wide, week-one system that is perfect in the history of the database. Road teams that are a single-digit dog by more than a FG that were under 500 the previous regular season while committing more than 21 turnovers are 14-0 ATS in week one vs a team that was over 500 last season. The SDQL text is:
A and 38 and tpS(TO)>21 and season >= 2008
These dogs are 8-6 straight up. In last season’s lone active date, the Jaguars trounced the Texans 29-7 getting 5 points.
We are grabbing the big number.
Event: (479) New York Jets at (480) Detroit Lions
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 10, 2018 7PM EDT
Play: New York Jets 7.0 (-113)
The Lions should have a hard time running the ball against the Jets and this always makes it a challenge to cover a number. Without the ability to eat clock by running the ball, the opponent will get more possessions and hence more opportunities to cover. We are grabbing the big number.
Anchoring this one is a very powerful system that makes handicapping sense.
In week one, teams that had FEWER regular season wins than their opponent the previous season and are facing a non-divisional that did not make the playoffs are 84-46-5 ATS (64.6%) . The record of 84-46-5 has a p-value of about 1 in 2000, which means that a flip of 130 coins will result in at least 84 in about 1 of 2000 trials. From this we can conclude that a record of 84-46-5 is very unlikely to be the result random noise.
So, in a week-one non-divisional match-up between two weak teams, take the one that had fewer wins the previous regular season. This could be the result of bettors placing too much emphasis of the results from the previous season, it could be the result of the team that had more wins not taking their non-divisional opponent seriously enough and it could be the result of the team win fewer wins having more motivation to prove themselves in their opener. The truth is probably a combination of all three.
For the Jets, we see that they qualify for an interesting league-wide, week-one system that is perfect in the history of the database. Road teams that are a single-digit dog by more than a FG that were under 500 the previous regular season while committing more than 21 turnovers are 14-0 ATS in week one vs a team that was over 500 last season. The SDQL text is:
A and 38 and tpS(TO)>21 and season >= 2008
These dogs are 8-6 straight up. In last season’s lone active date, the Jaguars trounced the Texans 29-7 getting 5 points.
We are grabbing the big number.
