Monday 09/10/2018 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

[bmd1803]

Dunkel Index

Monday, September 10

NY Jets @ Detroit

Game 479-480
September 10, 2018 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
123.494
Detroit
133.680
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 10
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 6 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-6 1/2); Over

LA Rams @ Oakland

Game 481-482
September 10, 2018 @ 10:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
134.776
Oakland
124.398
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 10 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 3
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-3); Over

 

[bmd1803]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1


Monday, September 10

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NY JETS (5 - 11) at DETROIT (9 - 7) - 9/10/2018, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (11 - 6) at OAKLAND (6 - 10) - 9/10/2018, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 184-232 ATS (-71.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 184-232 ATS (-71.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 62-97 ATS (-44.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in September games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

 

[bmd1803]

NFL

Week 1

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Trend Report


Monday, September 10

New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games
Detroit is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets


Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Rams is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games
LA Rams is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing Oakland
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Oakland is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
Oakland is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams

 

[bmd1803]

Trends to Watch - September
Marc Lawrence

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Off another sensational NFL Preseason Baltimore is an excellent home team this month at 30-17 ATS and have Buffalo (9/9) and Denver two weeks in the land of crab cakes.

You might think Buffalo's best home month is December, but it's not. They are strong in September at 34-22 ATS but only have one homer, against the L.A. Chargers on Sept. 16th.

Detroit is a solid 30-19 ATS in the Motor City and has the Jets on the first Monday Night game of the season and Dallas on the third Sunday of the month (9/23). San Francisco is thought to be revitalized this season and is 28-17 ATS this month in their building, but they have a nasty opening slate and just the Lions (9/16) at home early.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona has three games in Glendale to start the season with the Redskins (9/9), Bears (9/23) and Seahawks (9/30) and we will find out right away if the oddsmaker 5.5 win total is correct.

Carolina will be tested right off the bat with it's poor 16-24 home spread record, with Dallas there on Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 3. Speaking of the Bengals, the days of "The Jungle" are long gone with a 17-29 ATS record. And it might not improve with Baltimore in Cincy for the second Thursday night affair.

After playing in Arizona in their season lid-lifter, Washington hosts Indianapolis and Green Bay the next weeks trying to better 18-31 ATS home mark.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): For the first three months of the season, Dallas is an exceptional away club and that starts with a 33-18 ATS mark in September. Given their past, going to Carolina (9/9) or Seattle two weeks later would not imposing for the Cowboys.

Denver is none too shabby either at 28-18 ATS and they get tested only once, at Baltimore on the 23rd. Fellow AFC West partner Kansas City also fits this quality profile at 34-19 ATS. One concern for the Chiefs starting the season is at the Chargers and at the Steelers for first-time starter Patrick Mahomes.

Bad: It's been a while since the Rams were this good after last season. They are a horrific 16-32 ATS in the road whites and they play the late game in Oakland on MNF, before a three-game homestand.

Keep an eye on (Bad): New coach, new system, but same old results for Chicago away from the Windy City? The Bears are 19-29 ATS on the road and go to the not so frozen tundra at Lambeau Field on the 9th and to the red-hot Arizona desert on the 23rd.

As good as Detroit is at home, that's basically home bad they are on the road at 19-31 ATS. At San Fran on a short week in Week 2 won't be easy and likely or will a trip to Big D on the 30th.

Most years, Pittsburgh labors early and is an unsightly 17-31 ATS on the road. They are often not covering as away favorites and let's see how they do in that role at Cleveland in Week 1 and on the third week of MNF at Tampa Bay.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): Seattle is 31-20 ATS, but they are in transition. There is a chance they might not be a favorite all month, but chances are they will be at least once against @Chicago (9/17), Dallas (9/23) and @Arizona (9/30).

Bad: For years, the Rams, no matter where they were from, they were a brutal favorite. Their record of 12-30 ATS record explains that, but things could be changing. This L.A. bunch has the young loaded roster and is expected to be favored in all four of their games this month. Nonetheless, paying attention to history still matters.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Sportsbooks are calling for Arizona to be last in their division, but because of three home games this month, they will be favored at least twice. That might not be good since the Cardinals are only 11-20 ATS, facing Washington (9/9) and Chicago (9/23)

At 12-23 ATS when handing out points, Carolina is not a pretty play. The Panthers will give points to Dallas in Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 3, both at home.

Chicago has a similar record to Carolina at 14-23 ATS and will catch Tampa Bay in Week 4 as a fave. Da Bears might be a very small favorite in Week 2 in the Windy City against Seattle, but the prior week's results will determine that.

UNDERDOGS

Good: Dallas has been a sharp 27-11 ATS in this role they will be around a three-point pooch at Carolina to start the season. The early line had the Cowboys catching points in Seattle (9/23) but that could change.

Keep an eye on (Good): Kansas City is a nice 29-18 ATS as a September dog and as we start the month, they are receiving digits in two away games at the Chargers (9/9), and Pittsburgh (9/16).

The Vikings ship also travels well as underdogs at 27-18 ATS and they will be in Green Bay (9/16) and at the Rams on the last Thursday of the month.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): The Chiefs have been well prepared for AFC West action to begin the season with a 24-13 ATS mark. Good chance to improve in Game 1 against the Bolts in L.A.

Bad: It's Gruden 2.0 in Oakland and at 11-22 ATS versus division competitors, Week 2 at Denver might not be good.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Chicago is 18-27 ATS this month in the NFC North and it could get worse with a trip to Green Bay on Sunday Night football.

 

[bmd1803]

NFL

Week 1

Monday
Jets @ Lions— Rookie QB Darnold becomes youngest QB in last 48 years to start in Week 1. Detroit coach Patricia should be familiar with Jet offense from his days coaching Patriots’ defense. Jets are 6-7 vs Detroit, but won three of last four meetings; they’re 4-3 in Motor City, winning last visit here in OT. Since 2014, Detroit is 14-5-2 as home favorites; under is 29-19 in their home games last six years. Under Bowles, Jets are 3-8-3 as road underdogs; under is 15-8 in their last 23 road games. Lions won five of their last seven home openers; over is 6-2 in their last eight. Detroit started season 1-0 six of last seven years. Jets are 15-6 vs spread in last 21 road openers. Patricia is a defensive coach; will Lions try to run ball more, to protect the defense?

Rams @ Raiders— Gruden returns to sidelines after 10 years away. Raiders are 8-5 against the Rams, but lost last meeting 52-0 in St Louis— lot has changed for both sides since. Rams are 2-5 in series road games. Since 2012, Oakland is 10-16-1 as a home underdog- under is 22-9 in their last 31 home games. Rams are 7-5 vs spread as favorites LY, 4-2 on road; over was 7-1 in their road games LY. Raiders lost four of last six home openers, last four of which went over the total. Rams are 2-14 in last 16 road openers, 3-15 vs spread in last 18- they did win their road opener LY. Goff’s dad played for the SF Giants; this is a homecoming for him. Rams signed star DT Donald; Raiders traded their holdout star DE Mack to the Bears.

 

[bmd1803]

Total Talk - Week 1
Chris David

The 2018 NFL regular season is underway and total bettors playing the ‘under’ in last Thursday’s opener between the Eagles and Falcons were treated to a wire-to-wire winner.

Philadelphia captured an 18-12 victory at home and ‘under’ 44 ½ was never in doubt. Even though the betting public usually leans high in the nationally televised primetime games, this game was bet down from an opener of 47 and the move was certainly right.

Fifteen games left in Week 1 and plenty to discuss.

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 1 as of Saturday morning per Bookmaker.eu.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: 47 to 41
Buffalo at Baltimore: 42 ½ to 40 ½
Dallas at Carolina: 44 to 42 ½

The offshore outfit opened their numbers in late April, one of the first books to do so and the lines have held steady outside of the Browns-Steelers matchup. A lot of the downward movement on this game came this week when hopes of Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell returning to the lineup were diminished.

Listed below are the largest betting trend percentages per the VI Matchup index as of Saturday.

Steelers-Browns: Under 86%
Bills-Ravens: Under 85%
Jaguars-Giants: Under 82%
Rams-Raiders: Under 77%
Titans-Dolphins: Under 75%

It’s a little surprising to see this many low-side leans knowing most bettors lean to ‘over’ tickets but I could certainly see the argument for the five leans above.

Fifty Something

Even though a lot of pundits believe scoring will increase this season due to the new rule changes helping offensive units, we only have one Week 1 total listed in the fifties.

That matchup takes place in Foxboro between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots. The two teams met last season in Week 3 from Gillette Stadium and ‘over’ (44 ½) bettors cashed an easy ticket with New England holding off Houston 33-30.

That game was the coming-out party for Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson, who lit up New England for 342 total yards and two touchdowns. In six games as starter before his knee injury, the Texans averaged 34.6 points per game. Watson is certainly a huge ‘wildcard’ this season but if healthy and back to last year’s form, it’s certainly hard to imagine a huge drop-off in 2018.

New England was a tough team to figure out last season from a totals perspective. They started 2017 with four ‘over’ winners in a row but the defense improved and the ‘under’ closed the regular season on a 9-3 run. The ‘over’ went 2-1 in the postseason and the last thing bettors recall is New England making Eagles backup QB Nick Foles look like an all-time great. Watching him on Thursday versus the Falcons and in the preseason, it’s safe to say that we agree Foles shouldn’t be placed in that echelon.

Historically, this series has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in the 10 meetings between the pair and the Patriots have averaged 33.1 PPG in those games. Make a note that the number jumps to 35.4 PPG with Tom Brady as starting quarterback.

One trend that could have you leaning high focuses on a Super Bowl angle with the runner-up of last year’s finale. It’s widely known to back last year’s winner and that cashed Thursday with Philadelphia. It’s also known to fade the loser, which is New England. Along with fading the Patriots, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight openers for the SB loser.

Divisional Matchups

Week 1 has four divisional matchups on tap in Week 1 and one will be played in the Sunday primetime slot.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings but we’ve seen a stalemate the past two seasons (2-2). In the last four, both games in Pittsburgh went ‘over’ while the two matchups in Cleveland saw the low side connect and many bettors believe that trend will continue.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: This series has had some high totals recently with the last five meetings closing in the fifties. Despite the high expectations, the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 during this span and last year’s 31-24 win by Tampa Bay in Week 17 was fortunate to go ‘over’ as the pair combined for 25 points in the fourth quarter. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start at QB for the Bucs and in three starts for Tampa Bay last season, the club averaged 21.7 PPG. New Orleans has been a great ‘over’ bet in Week 1 recently, going 6-1 to the high side the last seven years. For those of you looking to lay the points with New Orleans, be aware that it is 1-6 during this run and the clubs has allowed an average 35.6 PPG in the setbacks.

Kansas City at L.A. Chargers: In a series dominated recently by the Chiefs (8-0 L8), we’ve also seen a strong ‘under’ (6-2) trend between the pair. The Chargers have been held to 13.8 PPG during this span. Los Angeles was the best ‘under’ bet (12-4) in the AFC last season, which was helped with the top ranked scoring defense (17 PPG). The unit is a little banged up (Bosa out) for Week 1 but should still have an edge over second-year QB Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs.

Chicago at Green Bay: (See Below)

AFC vs. NFC

Non-conference matchups are never an easy handicap but there are trends to keep an eye on for the opening weekend.

Jacksonville at N.Y. Giants: The Jaguars watched the ‘over’ go 4-0 versus the NFC last season and the well-respected defense allowed 30.5 PPG in those games. New York is 6-2 to the ‘under’ in its last eight matchups against AFC foes.

Seattle at Denver: Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 15-5 in its last 20 non-conference games and that includes a run of seven straight to the high side. The Broncos are 5-2 to the ‘under’ in their last seven versus the NFC.

N.Y. Jets at Detroit: The Jets saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 in their four matchups against the NFC last season. The Lions surrendered 21.2 PPG to the AFC last season. The team went 1-3 and the lone win came against 0-16 Cleveland, who posted 24 on Detroit. The ‘over’ went 2-1-1.

L.A. Rams at Oakland: The Rams swept their four AFC opponents last season and the offense averaged 33.3 PPG, which helped the ‘over’ go 3-1. The Raiders took a step back in 2017 against the NFC, scoring just 15.3 PPG. That production led to a 1-3 record and 4-0 ‘under’ mark.

Under the Lights

SNF - Chicago at Green Bay: The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings between the pair and the Bears just don’t have an answer for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is 15-4 against Chicago with him as a starter and it’s averaging 37.4 PPG in the last seven encounters. The Bears defense wasn’t exactly a pushover (20 PPG) last season and that helped the ‘under’ go 12-4 but two of the four ‘over’ tickets came vs. Green Bay. Since the SNF game is a huge ‘chase’ game for bettors, you know the books will be hoping for a Bears-Under combination.

The Monday Night Football double-header began in 2006 and continues this week with a pair of non-conference games (see above). We haven’t seen many glaring trends recently with the ‘over’ going 6-4 over the past five seasons.

N.Y. Jets at Detroit: Based on Detroit’s reputation as an ‘over’ team, I would expect this line to get juiced up by kickoff. The Lions went 10-6 to the high side last season, 6-2 from Ford Field. Also, the Lions have seen the ‘over’ go 7-0 in their last seven Week 1 matchups and the offense has averaged 30.7 PPG in this span.

L.A. Rams at Oakland: The Rams were also a solid ‘over’ club last season (11-5) and a lot of that damage came on the road (7-1) because of their potent offense (32.8 PPG). Will we see a regression? Will the new-look L.A. defense keep opponents in check? We’ll find out soon enough and we’ll also get to see if head coach Jon Gruden can improve an Oakland offense (18.8 PPG) that struggled last season.

Fearless Predictions

This is my 11th year producing the “Total Talk” column on and certainly one of my favorites. For those new to the VegasInsider.com and the industry, welcome aboard and best of luck with your wagers. And to those that have circled back around, thanks for the loyalty. Remember, feedback is welcomed and appreciated. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Seattle-Denver 42 ½

Best Under: Kansas City-L.A. Chargers 48 ½

Best Team Total: Over Cincinnati 23

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 40 Bengals-Colts
Over 42 Buccaneers-Saints
Over 37 ½ Jets-Lions

 

[bmd1803]

Tech Trends - Week 1

Monday, Sept. 10

N.Y. JETS at DETROIT (ESPN, 7:10 p.m. ET)
Patricia debut for Lions! Caldwell was 14-5-1 as Ford Field chalk the past four seasons. Though Lions enter 2018 only 4-6 vs. spread last ten as host. Bowles just 3-7-1 as road dog past two seasons but “under” 10-5 last 15 away.
Tech Edge: Lions and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

L.A. RAMS at OAKLAND (ESPN, 10:20 p.m. ET)
Gruden Raiders re-debut! Rams were 6-3 vs. line away LY for McVay. Oakland “under” 11-5 last season including last seven. Raid-uhs also just 4-11-3 last 18 on board since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Rams and “under."

 

[bmd1803]

Monday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Jets at Lions (-6 ½, 44 ½) – 7:10 PM EST - ESPN

SAM I AM READY

Although Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson saw action at quarterback on Sunday, former USC standout Sam Darnold is the first rookie from this past NFL draft to start a regular season contest. Darnold beat out veteran Josh McCown for the starting position looking to improve a Jets’ squad that finished 5-11 last season, capped off by four consecutive losses.

Darnold began the preseason by throwing a touchdown pass in a 17-0 shutout of the Falcons, but the Jets lost the final three exhibition contests. The Jets head to Ford Field coming off a dreadful 1-7 record on the road last season, while picking up only one cover, which came as 16 ½-point underdogs in a 31-19 setback at New Orleans. In case you were wondering, the only victory away from Met Life Stadium for New York came at Cleveland, 17-14.

HE AIN’T LION

Matt Patricia makes his head coaching debut for Detroit following a successful run as defensive coordinator of the Patriots. The Lions lost three of four preseason games, including both contests at Ford Field to the Browns and Giants. In the lone preseason victory at Tampa Bay, the Lions erased a 27-6 deficit to stun the Bucs, 33-30.

Patricia inherits a team that is coming off consecutive 9-7 seasons, but the franchise is seeking its first playoff victory since 1991. The Lions began 2017 with a solid 3-1 record and even owned a 6-4 mark through 10 games. However, Detroit split its final six games as nine wins was not enough to make the postseason for the second consecutive year.

FAST STARTERS

Since losing the infamous Calvin Johnson non-touchdown catch game at Chicago in 2010, the Lions have captured six of their past seven season openers. In this span, Detroit is 4-0 at Ford Field, including rallying from an early 10-0 deficit in a 35-23 victory over Arizona as two-point underdogs in 2017. The Lions are hosting a Week 1 Monday night affair for the first time since 2014, when Detroit blew out the other New York club by beating the Giants, 35-14 as 6 ½-point favorites.

SERIES HISTORY

The last time the Lions and Jets hooked up came back in 2014 at Met Life Stadium as Detroit grabbed a 24-17 triumph as two-point underdogs. Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns, while wide receiver Golden Tate hauled in eight receptions for 116 yards. The Jets’ signal-caller that day was Geno Smith, who compiled 209 yards passing to go along with a touchdown and interception as the Lions led by as many as 14 points in the second half.

The Jets won in their most recent trip to Ford Field in 2010 as Mark Sanchez threw for 336 yards in a 23-20 overtime victory. However, Detroit covered as a 5 ½-point home underdog.

LINE MOVEMENT

This game opened with the Lions listed as six-point favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, but has crept up to 6 ½ points at most outlets. The total opened at 44, but is up to 44 ½ and even 45 at several books. Last season, Detroit cashed the OVER in six of eight games at Ford Field, including three of four times in the favorite role.



Rams (-4 ½, 48) at Raiders – 10:15 PM EST – ESPN

CHUCKY’S BACK

Jon Gruden spent four seasons as the head coach of the Raiders from 1998-2001 as he lead Oakland to consecutive AFC West titles in his final two seasons. Gruden’s final game with the Raiders was the famous “Tuck Rule” game in the playoff overtime loss to the Patriots, which began New England’s dynasty. After a successful run as the analyst on ESPN’s Monday Night Football, Gruden is back in the East Bay looking to restore the Silver and Black to excellence.

The Raiders started 2017 with plenty of promise after beating the Titans and Jets by double-digits. However, Oakland fell apart by losing 10 of the final 14 games, while the Raiders scored 17 points or less in all 10 defeats. Following a 6-2 record at the Oakland Coliseum in their playoff run of 2016, the Raiders slipped to 4-3 at the Black Hole last season, while their other “home” game in Mexico was a 25-point blowout at the hands of the Patriots.

RAMMING AHEAD

In his first season as the head man in Los Angeles, Sean McVay helped ramp up a mediocre Rams’ attack as L.A. scored at least 30 points in eight games. The Rams captured their first NFC West title since 2003 by finishing 11-5 before getting tripped up by the Falcons in the Wild Card round. Quarterback Jared Goff threw 28 touchdown passes compared to seven interceptions, while running back Todd Gurley racked up 1,305 yards on the ground.

The Rams didn’t own much of a home-field advantage at the L.A. Coliseum by going 4-4, but Los Angeles posted a tremendous 7-1 road record, including five wins in the favorite role. However, the Rams put together a 3-2 ATS mark in those five road chalk affairs, but finished OVER the total in all five of those opportunities.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

Los Angeles is making only its third appearance on Monday night football since 2013. The Rams were last on Monday night two seasons ago following their move from St. Louis as the 49ers blasted Los Angeles, 28-0 in the 2016 opener. In this same stretch, the Raiders own a 1-2 record on Mondays, with their last win coming in Mexico against the Texans in 2016. The last time the Raiders hosted a Monday night affair came in 2012 as they lost to the Chargers in the season opener, 22-14.

SERIES HISTORY

The last time Derek Carr saw the Rams back in 2014, the Raiders were destroyed in St. Louis, 52-0. The Rams jumped out to a 38-0 halftime lead as quarterback Shaun Hill threw two touchdown passes, while running back Tre Mason found the end zone twice. That season, the Raiders finished in last place of the AFC West at 3-13, while this loss was amazingly not the worst in franchise history as they suffered a 55-0 defeat to the Oilers in 1961.

The Raiders beat the Rams in L.A.’s last trip to Oakland in 2010 by a 16-14 count as three-point favorites. The last victory for the Rams on the road in this series came in 2006 by a 20-0 shutout as Steven Jackson rushed for 127 yards and two scores.

LINE MOVEMENT

In early May, CG Technologies released the Raiders as 1 ½-point favorites, but the Rams have flipped to a 4 to 4 ½-point favorite at most books. The total opened at 49 ½ before briefly dropping to between 47 ½ and 48 at many outlets.

 

[bmd1803]

Jets vs Lions NFL betting picks and predictions: Darnold debuts on Monday Night Football

New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 44.5)

QUICK HITTER

The Lions and Jets face off at Ford Field on Monday night as New York looks to rebound from a dismal season on both sides of the football, and they will turn to rookie Sam Darnold to run the offense. However, that figures to be a tough task in his NFL debut as the Lions have a serviceable secondary led by Darius Slay, and if the Jets can’t establish the ground game early and often it will force their lackluster passing game to go to work. The Lions meanwhile have a laundry list of weapons offensively and, while the Jets defense can go punch-for-punch, it will take them a sequence or two to get acclimated to the crowd noise. Look for Stafford to dissect the Jets defense early in the first quarter and get in the endzone for the game’s opening score.

Prediction: First Score: Detroit Touchdown (+170)

HALF TIME BET

The Jets offense will live and die by the run early on, as Sam Darnold gets his bearings in NFL action, and with Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell carrying the rock they are more than capable of handling the load. The Lions don’t have the greatest defense and if the game plan goes according to Todd Bowles’ intentions the Lions defense will be on the field plenty in the opening half, and allow New York to continue building momentum offensively. If Ezekiel Ansah and company can plug the holes it will force the Jets to throw the ball, but for the first half the Jets should have their way on the ground and put up enough to eclipse the 8.5-point first half team total that seems to be incredibly low.

Prediction: First Half: Jets over 8.5

TEAM/PLAYER BET

One of the key matchups in this contest will be the skill set of the Detroit receivers against the shut down capabilities of the New York cornerbacks, with Golden Tate matched up with Trumaine Johnson and Marvin Jones lined up against Morris Claiborne. The Jets defense was woeful last season but with those two corners manning the secondary, alongside sophomore sensation Jamal Adams, and Leonard Williams leading a talented defensive line they are in much better shape this time around. However, Claiborne is going to get picked on in this contest, and with most of his matchups coming up against Jones, the WR1-A for the Lions will get himself into the endzone at some point in this game.

Prediction: Marvin Jones TD (+120)

FULL-GAME TOTAL

The Lions had the league’s worst running game last season and haven’t done much to rectify their woes, with the exception of drafting Kerryon Johnson, so you can be sure Detroit will be throwing the ball all game long. The Jets though will be hammering the rock on the ground, and if successful they should keep Detroit's offense off the field and allow the clock to run - keeping the total manageable until well into the second half. Both teams struggle to score on Monday Night Football as the Lions have stayed Under the number in 9 of their last 13 contests, while the Jets have played to the Under in four of their last five Monday night games and seven of their last 10 road games overall. This one should follow a similar script and come Under the 44.5 point total.

Prediction: Game Total: Under 44.5 (-110)

FULL-GAME SIDE

The Lions are favoured by a touchdown, as the oddsmakers are banking on a rocky start from Sam Darnold, and while that may still come to fruition Darnold’s performance shouldn't play much of a factor in the outcome of this game. Detroit will rely solely on the passing game to win and cover and that should allow New York’s defense to double-cover downfield and prevent the deep threat from burning them multiple times. Also, the Jets defense should be able to get to Matt Stafford and they should win the turnover battle in this game giving the Jets the chance to win the game outright, let alone cover the 6.5 points. Take the Jets to keep this one close.

Prediction: Game Side: Jets +6.5 (-110)

 

[bmd1803]

Rams vs Raiders NFL betting picks and predictions: Great expectations in L.A.

Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders (+4, 47.5)

QUICK HITTER

Jon Gruden’s return to the sidelines should give the Raiders, and their fans, something to be excited about but that novelty should wear out fast as they are in big trouble in this spot, despite playing at home on Monday Night Football. The Rams come into the regular season as one of the favourites to win the Super Bowl, as they added some big time pieces to an already impressive roster that should have no trouble eating up yards on a Raiders defense that was terrible last season, and is now without their cornerstone piece as they shipped Khalil Mack to the Bears. Los Angeles has so many weapons on offense and with Sean McVey having plenty of time to game plan for a lackluster Raiders defense, they should have no issues starting the season on the right foot and score the game’s first major.

Prediction: First Score: Los Angeles Rams Touchdown (+190)

HALF TIME BET

The Raiders will be leaning heavily on Derek Carr this season as they are going to be in plenty of shootouts, with their defense shaping up to be a bottom-five unit in the NFL, but luckily the Silver and Black have some nice pieces on the offensive side of the football. Jordy Nelson came over from the Packers, and both Marshawn Lynch and Amari Cooper are primed for a bounce back season, but they are going to be in tough against a Rams defense that features the best interior defensive line in football with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald stuffing the run. This should allow the Rams offense plenty of time to operate in the first half and the Rams will score at least two first half touchdowns.

Prediction: First Half: Los Angeles Rams Over 1.5 Touchdowns (+100)

TEAM/PLAYER BET

Los Angeles became a Super Bowl threat a season ago, thanks to the breakout season from both Todd Gurley and Jared Goff, and as the core of their team’s offense the Rams should be able to compete with anybody offensively. Furthermore, the Rams boast one of the league’s best defenses and should seriously be considered a threat to win the Lombardi Trophy and against the Raiders expect the Rams to attack the Oakland defense from a number of different directions. Despite the number of mismatches in favour of the Rams in this spot, the biggest could be Gurley against the Raiders run defense - and with a price tag of +400 for Gurley to score the game’s first touchdown it is too good to pass up in what looks to be a clock-work effort for the Rams.

Prediction: Gurley First TD (+400)

FULL-GAME TOTAL

The Raiders received a ton of criticism when they dealt Khalil Mack, and rightfully so, but the one consolation is that former Bengals defensive coordinator Paul Guenther is taking over and he has shown he can game plan a pretty imposing defensive scheme. Oakland’s offense is still a decent group when healthy, and while the Rams defense is very imposing the Raiders should still be able to put up some points in this spot, whether it happens in garbage time or otherwise. We have already highlighted the dangerous Rams offense and with all things considered this game should eclipse the total. The Over is 7-3 in Oakland’s last 10 September games while the Rams have gone Over in seven of their last eight games on the road. This game follows a similar script.

Prediction: Game Total: Over 47.5

FULL-GAME SIDE

The Rams have covered in their last four meetings against the Raiders and the line has moved from -2.5 in favor of Los Angeles and spiked up to -4 thanks to the Khalil Mack trade. Los Angeles is a very dangerous team and if this game was at a neutral site the Rams would be favoured by at least a touchdown which indicates the separation between these two clubs. The Black Hole deserves some kind of consideration, as does hosting a Monday Night Football game, but when you look at these two teams side-by-side there is clearly a ton of separation and that should be reflected in the final score. It might be worthwhile buying up a few points, as well, as a double digit victory is a very plausible finish.

Prediction: Game Side: Rams -4

 

[bmd1803]

Betting Recap - Week 1
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 1 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 9-4-1
Against the Spread 7-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-5-1
Against the Spread 7-6-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+10, ML +425) at Saints, 48-40
Chiefs (+3.5, ML +165) at Chargers, 38-28
Redskins (+2.5. ML +115) at Cardinals, 24-6

The largest favorite to cover
Ravens (-8) vs. Bills, 47-3
Vikings (-6.5) vs. 49ers, 24-16
Patriots (-6) vs. Texans, 27-20

Kissing Your Sister

-- It's been said a tie is like kissing your sister. Kissing your sister sounds like a loss to me. Anyway, the Pittsburgh Steelers likely feel like they suffered a loss in their Week 1 game on the road against the rival Cleveland Browns. The Browns were more likely to come out of this game feeling good about themselves, erasing a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter to snap a 17-game losing streak, albeit not with a victory. Still, their 0-0-1 record signifies Cleveland's best start since the 2004 season. How bad is that? It was also the league's first tie in the opening weekend of the regular season since 1971, and first in the NFL since Oct. 30, 2016.

Bad Beat Time...

-- It isn't officially football season until there is a bad beat. Moneyline bettors for the Chicago Bears (+7, ML +260) and 'under' (45) bettors took it in the shorts when Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (knee) returned from the medical tent, cart and locker room to play in the second half. The Packers ralled from a 20-0 deficit to pick up a 24-23 win against the Bears. Chicago kicked a field goal with 2:39 to go, taking a 23-17 lead. It appeared all hope with 2:13 to go in regulation and the Packers in their own end trailing by six with a 3rd and 10. However, Rodgers dropped one off to WR Randall Cobb across the middle and he did the rest, squirting free for a 75-yard touchdown to miraculously take a 24-23 lead. The 10 points in the final 2:39 push the total from 'under' to 'over', and it killed moneyline bettors who had watched the Bears tied or in the lead for the first 57:47 of the game.

Total Recall

-- The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon wreaked havoc on the Midwest and East Coast during Saturday's college football schedule, and the rain shield was firmly in place over Northeast Ohio for the Steelers-Browns game. The right call was the 'under' (41) in this one, as there were just seven points on the board at halftime, and 28 points on the board after three quarters. However, the Browns decided to resemble and NFL caliber club in the fourth quarter, and they took advantage of a couple of miscues by the Steelers to rally for a 14-point quarter and a tie. Even if there were a score in the overtime period, the 'over' was already in the books.

-- The highest total on the board was that way for a reason. In the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-New Orleans Saints battle, the Vegas oddsmakers weren't put off by the fact backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was under center for the suspended QB Jameis Winston. It was a smart call, as the Bucs nearly took care of the 'over' themselves with 48 points. They posted 14 points in the first quarter, 17 points in the second and 10 points in the third before cooling off for just seven in the final period. The Saints scored 10 or more points in the first, second and fourth in this insanely entertaining battle under the dome. No rain here to slow things down.

-- The Buffalo Bills-Baltimore Ravens (38.5) was the lowest listed game on the board, but someone apparently forgot to tell the Ravens that they weren't a good offensively club. They ran roughshod over the Bills, firing out to a 26-0 lead to make 'under' bettors feeling uneasy. It got worse, as they took a 40-0 lead before the end of the third quarter when the Bills finally got on the board with a field goal.

-- There are three primetime games in Week 1, with one already in the books and an 'under' result 0-1 (0.0%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Buccaneers WR DeSean Jackson (concussion) suffered a concussion in Sunday's game in New Orleans. He'll have to go through the league's mandated concussion protocol before he is cleared to return.

-- Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) checked out of the game against the New York Giants and he was unable to return.

-- Panthers TE Greg Olsen (foot) left Sunday's game against Dallas in the first half due to a foot injury, and he returned to the sidelined on crutches while wearing a walking. It's the same foot he injured in the 2017 season.

-- Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin (knee) sustained a sprained medial collateral ligament in the first half Sunday's game in Denver and he was unable to return.

-- It was a long afternoon for the Titans due to lengthy lightning delays. It got even longer when play resumed in Miami, as QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) suffered an elbow injury, and he missed most of the second half. TE Delanie Walker (ankle) suffered a dislocated ankle and associated fracture and he is expected to be out for the season.

Looking Ahead

-- The Ravens will look to carry over their momentum into Thursday's game with the Bengals in a battle of 1-0 clubs in the AFC North. Cincinnati has won seven of the past nine in this series straight-up while going 6-3 ATS during the span. Cincinnati has won five of the past six at Paul Brown Stadium against Baltimore while going 4-2 ATS. The underdog has cashed in seven of the past eight in this series, too. In addition, the 'under' is 4-1 in the past five meetings overall between these rivals.

-- The Dolphins and Jets will do battle at MetLife Stadium and it has been a coin-flip series lately. The teams are 4-4 SU/ATS against each other over the past eight meetings, with a slight edge to the 'over' 5-3. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings in this series, however.

-- The Chargers and Bills each lost their opening games, although Buffalo was a lot worse overall in a 47-3 embarrassment in Baltimore. These teams met in Los Angeles last season, with the Chargers coming away with a 54-24 victory on Nov. 19 to cover a seven-point spread.

-- The Panthers will travel to meet the Falcons, and that never seems to end well for Carolina. They're 1-4 SU/ATS over the past five meetings, and they have lost three straight in Georgia. When these teams get together it's usually a defensive battle, as the 'under' is 8-1-1 over the past 10 meetings in this series, including 2-0 last year.

-- The Cowboys host the Giants are Jerry World, and Dallas is looking for its third straight win in this series. While Dallas is 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings, they won and covered both in 2017. The 'under has also cashed in each of the past four meetings in this series.

 

[bmd1803]

Preview: Jets at Lions
Gracenote
Sep 7, 2018

From the minute the New York Jets selected Sam Darnold with the No. 3 overall pick in this year's draft, it merely was a matter of when, not if, the team handed him the keys to their offense. Darnold impressed New York's brass enough to win the starting job in the preseason and will lead the Jets into Monday's season opener against the host Detroit Lions.

Darnold, who beat out Josh McCown and the since-traded Teddy Bridgewater for the job during the preseason, will make history in his NFL debut, becoming the youngest Week 1 starting quarterback at 21 years, 97 days. "We are trying to help the team win and we feel like he gives us a good chance to win," Jets coach Todd Bowles told reporters. "We’re not starting him because he’s a rookie and he’s not ready, we’re starting him because he gives us a chance to win the game.” While Darnold represents a changing of the guard in New York, the Lions will be playing their initial game under first-year coach Matt Patricia, who spent the past six seasons as the defensive coordinator for New England. Patricia inherits a team that has posted back-to-back nine-win seasons and features an experienced quarterback in Matt Stafford, but also one that hasn't won a playoff game since 1991.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Lions -6.5. O/U: 45

ABOUT THE JETS (2017: 5-11, 4TH IN AFC EAST): Darnold, the second quarterback taken in the draft, finished the preseason by completing 29-of-45 passes for 244 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He will look to a wide receiving corps led by Robby Anderson, who paced the team with 941 yards and seven touchdowns last season, Jermaine Kearse (team-high 65 catches), Quincy Enunwa (58 catches in 2016) and quarterback-turned-receiver Terrelle Pryor. New York augmented the running game by bringing in a power back in Isaiah Crowell, who appeared in all 16 games in each of his four seasons in Cleveland, while Bilal Powell will provide a breather and serve as the third-down back. Leonard Williams anchors the defensive line and New York has a solid secondary, but it must improve on a pass rush that ranked 28th a year ago with 28 sacks.

ABOUT THE LIONS (2017: 9-7, 2ND IN NFC NORTH): Stafford has thrown for at least 4,000 yards for seven consecutive years to carry what has been a one-dimensional offense that ranked last in rushing in two of the past three seasons. To that end, Detroit drafted rookie running back Kerryon Johnson from Auburn in the second round and signed LeGarrette Blount, who is one year removed from leading the league with 18 rushing touchdowns. Marvin Jones led the Lions with 1,101 yards and nine touchdowns on 61 catches last season while fellow wideout Golden Tate also surpassed 1,000 yards on 92 receptions. Detroit has a pair of standouts on the other side of the ball in defensive end Ziggy Ansah (12 sacks) and cornerback Darius Slay (eight interceptions) but needs to find another pass rusher for a unit that ranked 27th in 2017.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Stafford has recorded four scoring passes and zero interceptions in two career meetings with New York.

2. Crowell is one of six active running backs with at least 600 yards rushing in each of the last four seasons.

3. Lions RB Theo Riddick has registered 186 catches and 10 TD receptions over the last three seasons.

PREDICTION: Lions 23, Jets 20

 

[bmd1803]

ATS Trends
N.Y. Jets

Jets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf.
Jets are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Jets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Detroit

Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.

OU Trends
N.Y. Jets

Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 Monday games.
Over is 5-2 in Jets last 7 games on fieldturf.
Under is 7-3 in Jets last 10 road games.

Detroit

Over is 10-1 in Lions last 11 games in Week 1.
Over is 7-2 in Lions last 9 home games.
Under is 9-4 in Lions last 13 Monday games.

Head to Head
No trends available.

 

[bmd1803]

Preview: Rams at Raiders
Gracenote
Sep 7, 2018

Jon Gruden's second stint as coach of the Oakland Raiders was supposed to begin with a matchup between two of the NFL's best defensive players. Oakland squashed that showdown by trading superstar Khalil Mack last weekend and will need to receive phenomenal efforts from his replacements when it hosts the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night.

Gruden, who was given a 10-year, $100 million contract to return to the sideline for the first time since 2008 with Tampa Bay, never even got to meet Mack, a three-time Pro Bowler and the NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2016 who was a holdout during preseason before being dealt to Chicago - and signed to a six-year, $141 million deal - last Saturday. Oakland's defense was suspect at best with Mack and figures to be considerably weaker when the team meets the Rams, who were able to come to terms with their defensive stud a day before the Raiders parted with theirs. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald, a four-time Pro Bowler who was the NFL's Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2014 and Player of the Year in 2017, inked a six-year, $135 million contract last Friday. Los Angeles is looking to build off a season in which it captured its first division title since 2003 with a first-year coach in Sean McVay and an inexperienced quarterback in the 23-year-old Jared Goff.

TV: 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Rams -4. O/U: 48.5

ABOUT THE RAMS (2017: 11-5, FIRST IN NFC WEST): McVay stated on Thursday that Donald is ready to face Oakland despite missing the entire preseason due to his holdout. The 27-year-old Donald, who leads all NFL defensive tackles with 39 sacks since 2014, has proven to be a fast starter as he recorded two sacks in the 2015 season opener and one in his 2017 debut. Goff, who led Los Angeles to a league-best average of 29.9 points per game last year, was kept out of all of the team's preseason games and may rely heavily on Todd Gurley, who led the NFL in 2017 with 29 rushing touchdowns en route to being named the Offensive Player of the Year.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2017: 6-10, THIRD IN AFC WEST): Derek Carr passed for 3,496 yards and 22 touchdowns last year to join Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for 3,000 yards and 20 scores in each of their first four seasons. Carr lost one of his favorite targets in Michael Crabtree but gained a new one in Jordy Nelson, who was signed to a two-year contract in March after being released by Green Bay - the team with which he recorded at least 1,250 receiving yards in four of nine seasons. Bruce Irvin has been moved from linebacker to defensive end in an effort to compensate for the departure of Mack, while the team also hopes to receive contributions from newcomer Tank Carradine and rookies Maurice Hurst, P.J. Hall and Arden Key.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Rams LB Mark Barron (ankle) did not practice Thursday and is questionable for the season opener.

2. Oakland may need to rely on Doug Martin, a two-time 1,400-yard rusher with Tampa Bay, as fellow RB Marshawn Lynch (groin) was limited during Thursday's practice and is questionable for Monday's contest.

3. Los Angeles backup C Austin Blythe is expected to fill in for G Jamon Brown, who will miss the season's first two games due to a suspension.

PREDICTION: Rams 44, Raiders 24

 

[bmd1803]

ATS Trends
L.A. Rams

Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Rams are 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 games in September.
Rams are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 1.
Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.

Oakland

Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.
Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Raiders are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Raiders are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

OU Trends
L.A. Rams

Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games in September.
Over is 7-1 in Rams last 8 road games.
Over is 5-1 in Rams last 6 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games on grass.
Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games in Week 1.
Over is 7-3-1 in Rams last 11 Monday games.

Oakland

Under is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 home games.
Under is 7-0 in Raiders last 7 games overall.
Under is 7-0 in Raiders last 7 games on grass.
Over is 5-2 in Raiders last 7 Monday games.
Over is 7-3 in Raiders last 10 games in September.

Head to Head

Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

 

[bmd1803]

Mike Wynn


Bonus Play: Free Kansas City w/Junis -125 Over Chicago Wsox

 

[bmd1803]

Razor Sharp


YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR MONDAY: Take PHILADELPHIA (Arrieta) -115 over Washington

 

[bmd1803]

Totals4U


Monday's Free Selection: Los Angeles Dodgers/Cincinnati Reds under 9

 

[bmd1803]

#1 Sports


Monday's Free Selection: Detroit Tigers + 275

 

[bmd1803]

Platinum Plays


Free Pick the Texas Rangers w/Minor +120 over LA Angels