Giants/Phillies Game 6
Medium
Phillies -154
Bochey continues to not optimize his lineup. He has been doing it for the majority of the games in the playoffs. He took a fairly valued Phillies team and provided them with about 12 cents value on the NVL. This is not a good matchup for the Giants. Sanchez can dominate any lineup, but can also implode at any time. He usually implodes when he is unable to get the opposition to go outside the zone. The Phillies are a very patient lineup and saw him less than a week ago. Oswalt was dominant first time out, and is a big game pitcher. Huge lineup disparity favoring the Phillies. Good hedge bet for the two +EV series plays I have going on the Giants. If the Phillies lose, I still come out well ahead.
Medium
Phillies -154
Bochey continues to not optimize his lineup. He has been doing it for the majority of the games in the playoffs. He took a fairly valued Phillies team and provided them with about 12 cents value on the NVL. This is not a good matchup for the Giants. Sanchez can dominate any lineup, but can also implode at any time. He usually implodes when he is unable to get the opposition to go outside the zone. The Phillies are a very patient lineup and saw him less than a week ago. Oswalt was dominant first time out, and is a big game pitcher. Huge lineup disparity favoring the Phillies. Good hedge bet for the two +EV series plays I have going on the Giants. If the Phillies lose, I still come out well ahead.
Rangers/Giants Series Play
Upper Medium
Giants +121
Wrong team favored. I currently have a Giants valuation of -104. Home field advantage is magnified in this series and pitching edges are magnified in playoff games. Both edges go to the Giants. Not only does the Giants park somewhat neutralize the hitting edge the Rangers have, but it also forces Guerrero to play the field or the ride the bench (which appears to be two spots he will platoon during the series). It also helps the Giants avoid their ugly DH situation for the majority of the games. The Rangers were also one of the two playoff teams to post a losing record on the road this series. The Rangers have gotten a boost from their starting pitching during the playoffs. It is a rotation that has now become overrated and vulnerable to some serious regression. Lee is the hottest pitcher in baseball, but now has a premium priced into his projected performance. He will also be countered by a top 3 pitcher in baseball in each one of his starts. Wilson and Lewis are now at an inning count nowhere near the level they are used to. They can implode any start. Hunter does not look sharp, has an xFIP suggesting regression, and also at an inning count not accustomed to. The Giants edge in pitching does not end with the starters. Their bullpen is better, deeper, have better situational arms, and are pitching lights out right now. I only make the Rangers favorites in 3 games (all their home games). A lot of value seems to be derived from Game 1 (and most likely game 5). Getting Lincecum with value is not a bad thing. Also not a bad thing as it may provide a +EV series buyback if the Giants win game 1.
Upper Medium
Giants +121
Wrong team favored. I currently have a Giants valuation of -104. Home field advantage is magnified in this series and pitching edges are magnified in playoff games. Both edges go to the Giants. Not only does the Giants park somewhat neutralize the hitting edge the Rangers have, but it also forces Guerrero to play the field or the ride the bench (which appears to be two spots he will platoon during the series). It also helps the Giants avoid their ugly DH situation for the majority of the games. The Rangers were also one of the two playoff teams to post a losing record on the road this series. The Rangers have gotten a boost from their starting pitching during the playoffs. It is a rotation that has now become overrated and vulnerable to some serious regression. Lee is the hottest pitcher in baseball, but now has a premium priced into his projected performance. He will also be countered by a top 3 pitcher in baseball in each one of his starts. Wilson and Lewis are now at an inning count nowhere near the level they are used to. They can implode any start. Hunter does not look sharp, has an xFIP suggesting regression, and also at an inning count not accustomed to. The Giants edge in pitching does not end with the starters. Their bullpen is better, deeper, have better situational arms, and are pitching lights out right now. I only make the Rangers favorites in 3 games (all their home games). A lot of value seems to be derived from Game 1 (and most likely game 5). Getting Lincecum with value is not a bad thing. Also not a bad thing as it may provide a +EV series buyback if the Giants win game 1.
Disagree with you on this but do not have the acumen to offer the empirical evidence that you do and I respect. Cliff Lee has proven in the playoffs, for the last two years, that he is a premier pitcher and performs at the highest level when it counts the most. Colby Lewis is the 'x' factor here with his last three starts vs. the Yankees twice and Tampa Bay with an era of 1.45. I think the 'x' factor for the Giants is Cain who is actually under .500 lifetime and had a losing record on the road for the Giants. Additionally, what you saw of Sanchez on Saturday night I think is indicative of what to expect from him vs. Texas. He does not possess the strike zone discipline to shut down the Rangers. Wilson, is a great closer but if you look at Perez' stats, this year, they are actually more impressive. Wilson came into Saturday's game in the bottom of the eight inning and gave up a rocket that was hit right into Huff's glove and an easy double play. To say his ninth inning close was an adventure, or torture as the call it in S.F., wouldn't be an exaggeration. Offensively, I think Texas does have a clear edge which will be mitigated somewhat with the DH although I expect Guerrero to play some right field especially against left handers. Lastly, an element that I think will be crucial is leadoff hitting and Elvis Andus is a star in the making. Not only leading off but his defense is future gold glove and he seems totally unintimidated by the stage he is on. Texas beat the defending World Champs and Tampa Bay proving they could win on the road in the playoffs. I see Texas winning this in six games.
Rangers/Giants Game 1
Large
Giants +116
Wrong team favored. Lee is priced for perfection and then some. His current valuation based on a comparative analysis on my past valuation of Lincecum at home currently prices Lee as the best pitcher in baseball by a decent amount. Better than Halladay and better than Lincecum. Lee’s valuation has hit an all time high in this start, and although he has been pitching better than any other pitcher baseball and has been dominant pitching in playoffs, his current valuation simply does not justify his expected performance given current form. As mentioned in my series play, homefield advantage is magnified in this series. The Giants have the better bullpen and a top tier pitcher of their own to counter Lee. Lee’s expected innings pitched should also warrant a small downgrade given pinch hitting scenarios. Market overthrow. Good value on the Giants.
Large
Giants +116
Wrong team favored. Lee is priced for perfection and then some. His current valuation based on a comparative analysis on my past valuation of Lincecum at home currently prices Lee as the best pitcher in baseball by a decent amount. Better than Halladay and better than Lincecum. Lee’s valuation has hit an all time high in this start, and although he has been pitching better than any other pitcher baseball and has been dominant pitching in playoffs, his current valuation simply does not justify his expected performance given current form. As mentioned in my series play, homefield advantage is magnified in this series. The Giants have the better bullpen and a top tier pitcher of their own to counter Lee. Lee’s expected innings pitched should also warrant a small downgrade given pinch hitting scenarios. Market overthrow. Good value on the Giants.
I bought some more Giants series play prior to game 2 (added a small position). The Giants are still undervalued on the series (slightly undervalued tonight). Ideally, it would be nice to buyback some of my position on the Giants today. Unfortunately, the Rangers inflated price prevents any buyback.
