MLB Playoff Thread

[buffettgambler]

Would you play the series bet if you didn't hold a Yankee series ticket? Congrats on the afternoon tilt.

Yes, but for a different amount.

 

[buffettgambler]

One of my pet peeves as well. By playing the 20-cent runline offered at most books, you're almost always increasing the juice from the dimeline bases most places offer.

Yep.
Sitting on any series bets so far Tim?

 

[buffettgambler]

Any thoughts on the Yankees run-line tonight ????

I closed out positions on this game with a small arb. Entered a play on the overnight on the Yankees. Downgrade in their price and market upgrade on the Yankees allowed me to buyback on the Rangers.

 

[tmader7]

I closed out positions on this game with a small arb. Entered a play on the overnight on the Yankees. Downgrade in their price and market upgrade on the Yankees allowed me to buyback on the Rangers.

Let me ask ya something.....................no, can't do it. My mother always said to me, "oh ye of little faith." I win Rangers and over, not a bad day considering the Phillies, LOL. GL going onward.

~T~

 

[IrishTim]

Yep.
Sitting on any series bets so far Tim?

Only series bet I've placed this postseason were the Giants in the first round. I shut down the regular season MLB stuff the same time soon after you did, figuring if you couldn't have confidence you could beat the market, there's no way in hell I could. Spent some time on those two other ventures I mentioned, but mainly working on this college football totals model. Think they're beatable and have had some good success thus far vs. the CL (avg. +1.2 line confirmation from the time I bet), but only winning at about a 50% rate, albeit a small sample.

Don't have any exposure on the sides, but small play on the under 8.5 (-15) in the Yanks/Rangers game.

 

[buffettgambler]

Only series bet I've placed this postseason were the Giants in the first round. I shut down the regular season MLB stuff the same time soon after you did, figuring if you couldn't have confidence you could beat the market, there's no way in hell I could. Spent some time on those two other ventures I mentioned, but mainly working on this college football totals model. Think they're beatable and have had some good success thus far vs. the CL (avg. +1.2 line confirmation from the time I bet), but only winning at about a 50% rate, albeit a small sample.

Don't have any exposure on the sides, but small play on the under 8.5 (-15) in the Yanks/Rangers game.

Nice production on beating the CFB closes. If you continue at that rate, you won't be hitting at 50% much longer. Are you tracking your market comparison on an ML basis as well? Beating or losing point confirmation on games with large spreads may skew results.

 

[buffettgambler]

Rangers/Yankees Series Play
Large
Rangers -620
Material downgrades on the Yankees Game 5,6,and 7 prices given the loss of Texeria. The market appears to continue to add an embedded premium in their series pricing due to the belief they will be hard to finish off. I am not buying it. Their lineup is not hitting well right now and the Rangers have the confidence and momentum, and their 3 best pitchers remaining. I give the Yankees an 18% chance to pull off a great comeback, below market expectations.

 

[Kegler]

Rangers/Yankees Series Play
Large
Rangers -620
Material downgrades on the Yankees Game 5,6,and 7 prices given the loss of Texeria. The market appears to continue to add an embedded premium in their series pricing due to the belief they will be hard to finish off. I am not buying it. Their lineup is not hitting well right now and the Rangers have the confidence and momentum, and their 3 best pitchers remaining. I give the Yankees an 18% chance to pull off a great comeback, below market expectations.

If you give the Yankees an 18% cahance of winning the series then betting Texas @ -620 is a losing bet long term.

18 X 620 = 11,160

82 X 100 = 8200

 

[buffettgambler]

If you give the Yankees an 18% cahance of winning the series then betting Texas @ -620 is a losing bet long term.

18 X 620 = 11,160

82 X 100 = 8200

Yes, typo. Thanks for spotting.
Should be 12% and 88% (reversed the last 2 numbers)

Breakdown as follows:
Game 5 chances: 58.6%
Game 6 52.3%
Game 7:39.3%

Yankees to win in 7: 12.045
Rangers to win in 5:41.4
Rangers to win in 6: 27.96%
Rangers to win in 7:18.6%

Yankees Fair value: +733
Rangers Fair Value: -733
* Valuations based on non correlation between games. Adjust if deemed necessary.

 

[tmader7]

Damn, and I thought the hundred grand and two semesters with a Nobel Laureate in math were a little overkill. I feel a hell of a lot better now, LOL. RANGERS, that's all you need to know! GL my friend.

~T~

 

[IrishTim]

Nice production on beating the CFB closes. If you continue at that rate, you won't be hitting at 50% much longer. Are you tracking your market comparison on an ML basis as well? Beating or losing point confirmation on games with large spreads may skew results.

Thanks, BG. So is the hope. I'm actually tracking them by a % derived from my half-point valuations of the NCAAF totals. I'm sure it's somewhat flawed. What would you suggest the best way to measure EV vs. the closing total is?

 

[buffettgambler]

Thanks, BG. So is the hope. I'm actually tracking them by a % derived from my half-point valuations of the NCAAF totals. I'm sure it's somewhat flawed. What would you suggest the best way to measure EV vs. the closing total is?

I track it that way and vs. ML. Aggregate points is less telling.

 

[buffettgambler]

Material downgrade on the Giants price with Bochy electing to go with Rowand over Torres and Renteria at short. Not only does Rowand devalue the Giants (especially vs. RHP) relative to Torres at the plate and on the field, but the switch forces Renteria to bat leadoff- collateral damage. Questionable call here.

 

[Stabler12]

Sounds as if you'd really like to make the Giants a play, BG. I await your decision. Thanks as always.

 

[buffettgambler]

Sounds as if you'd really like to make the Giants a play, BG. I await your decision. Thanks as always.

Hey Munson,
Prior to the downgrade I thought they were undervalued. Now I think they are fairly valued. No play. Sitting on two series plays on them, so I will be rooting for them anyways.
BOL.

 

[Stabler12]

Thanks, BG, I missed yesterday's SF play much to my consternation, I appreciate the heads up.

 

[Rip007]

Thanks

 

[Stabler12]

Resting and hoping the Giants complete the series upset, I take it? GL, BG.

 

[Stabler12]

Congrats on the Texas series win.

 

[buffettgambler]

Congrats on the Texas series win.

Sure wasn't pretty. Net position was around 10x to win 1.