MLB for the week of 8/4

Kodiak7 · Aug 7, 2003

lol... OK.. I thought you wanted to keep it remotely friendly...

Your the one that asked to play, I'm excepting your challenge there guy.. We don't need to make a fuzz over this.. We'll play from start of season to end.. Which is the Superbowl... I have a hard time believing a player like yourself can afford any more then a dime in something like this... I will put 5times that on myself... If you can come up with it,

, let me know... For me it's not about the money but about showing you a thing or two about playing and winning ACE..

Watch this chip I FIRMLY knock OFF this GUYS shoulder..

Kodiak7 · Aug 7, 2003

Kodiak, a dime isnt even worth my time. Besides, you really dont even have a chance.

ATX... the greatest player in the WORLD!!

lol...

raiders72001 · Aug 7, 2003

GL ATX

Kodiak7 · Aug 7, 2003

he needs alot more then luck.. YOU want in RAIDERS?

ATX · Aug 7, 2003

COL +135 for .2%
COL -1.5 +235 for .1%

ATX · Aug 7, 2003

SF -1.5 -124 for .3%

ATX · Aug 7, 2003

SD +125 for .2%
SD -1.5 +260 for .1%

ATX · Aug 7, 2003

Kodiak, I am being 'remotely friendly'. I simply tell it like it is. You do realize that once you lose 25% of your bankroll you'll be in a bad spot, when you wager as a % of BR you cant chase with 10X wagers for long??

ATX · Aug 7, 2003

Kodiak, the violin player was f'n hilarious, I lost 3% of BR and was being overly dramatic about it. I realized I'm bored as hell with baseball, cant wait for another 2nd half tonite.

joeybagadonuts · Aug 7, 2003

Kody
I will GLADY put $ on ATX to kill you in any sport, as long as you cant chase with 1000* games of the year. Wager as a % of your BR and youre on. I mean you are a "proven winner" and all so it shouldnt be hard for you to beat ATX, right?

TomorrowsNewspaper+ · Aug 7, 2003

ATX, pay no attention to Kodiac. Those that understand handicapping value your contribution to the forum. Keep up the good work.

TomorrowsNewspaper+ · Aug 7, 2003

....for that matter, we all appriciate Kodiac's contribution also, but just for opposite reasons. To think, I could be up over 3000 units if I had just started earlier.

ATX · Aug 7, 2003

it's all good, I'm not sweatin anything, and I wish EVERYONE only the best. Kodiak, the only problem I had was your chase plays, I like to try to keep people from doing that, not necessarily you, but people that are compulsive. I get emails about this type of thing. Besides, it's like 110 degrees here, and I'm so ready for football, I'm a little frustrated, nothing a 12pack wont fix, and crazy Bob is comin to town.

Looking back at my last 25 plays or so, on the bright side I've been going very small, I guess I kind of knew the matchups so far this week have been pretty tough for the dog players. I'm not sure how the trades will affect a lot of the teams, it might be the white-flag surrender for teams with no hope for the playoffs. This is one thing I'll be watching for future reference, I know I struggled last year during this time until the 2nd round of the playoffs.

CLE +140 for .4%
CLE -1.5 +248 for .2%

KC -122 for .4%
KC -1.5 +119 for .1% (+119?? WTF?? very little value)

ANA +140 for .3%
ANA -1.5 +210 for .1%

on any day I would play the above three for at least those amounts, still not a lot of value but those offer the most, IMO.
CLE

Antonioli · Aug 7, 2003

atx, remember you once said 'those who talked big about $$$ are those who dont have any'? give kody a chance, he needs your money

ATX · Aug 7, 2003

NYM +183 for .2%
NYM -1.5 +290 for .1%

ST LOU -105 for .2%
ST LOU -1.5 +176 for .1%

LA parlayed to MON for .2% pays .290%

ATX · Aug 7, 2003

sounds like something I might have said during basketball season...

I looked into the Hilton this year, but the problem I have with contests and such is that it really screws with the system that I use, it's based on volume. Some guys like to pick their spot and straddle the 60% win rate and they do more than fine, but I'd rather apply a small edge to a bevy of games and make more, while at the same time wagering higher amounts on larger perceived value. Another problem with football and baskets is that very small line movements have a dramatic effect on investments. If a line goes from -7 to -8 in football while I'm trying to narrow down and focus on larger plays that really screws with my head, especially if I'm in a slump. In baseball a 10 cent line move takes away from value, but it doesnt change the grading from win to loss. I do spend a good deal of time on some games, but I actually spend the most time on the games that I would normally pass on. When I really like a game and put an unusually large amount on it, I spend more time trying to figure out what type of predicament I'll be in if it loses. On some days I see a tremendous amount of value on a large number of games and I increase my exposure on each--my line of thought is "I have a 65% chance of showing profit on today's games." There are maybe 10 or so per year that I remember in basketball, in football it's more along the lines of "these 5 games should go 3-2 at a minimum and these 5 totals likewise" and the rest of the games are for wagered for less. I've noticed that the majority of these scenarios are in the beginnings of the season before the oddsmaker fully adjusts for team strengths/weaknesses, IMO. I didnt post bases at the beginning of the season b/c I lacked experience but I saw a lot of that early this year. A lot of the lines on Ponson I hammered etc, my point being that I just havent seen that kind of value in baseball for the last two or three weeks, and I really need to focus more on totals for times like this--when the SIDES/matchups just dont offer the same kind of value. In other sports I play 2nd halves and that helps to add value in similar types of situations, this grinding is just getting old. Give me football or give me death.

Kodiak7 · Aug 7, 2003

ATX.. he was rather funny.. I, mistakinly, put you into the same catogory as nochance/joey/raiders.. Sorry!

good luck to you sir with your plays the rest of the way..

and for whomever it was that wanted a piece of me during foots.. ante-up... I have a feeling must of you jokers can't scratch up enough scratch to buy a six-pack let alone anything else..

raiders72001 · Aug 7, 2003

ATX- Feel free to join us at TFZ for baseball or football picks. We could use your help.

TFZ Fri-Sun

ATX · Aug 8, 2003

Raiders, I'll be stopping by when I get a chance, but truth is-- that I belonged in the J2 Fading Institute earlier this week. I'll get it turned around, on NFLX I'm pretty much just trying out a system, I may be throwing money away, but on 2nd halves I'm happy to say I'm doing well. Cant wait for TFZ this football season, hopefully Dime and Judge can stop by with their info. I'm just about ready to place some wagers on NFL for the first week's games.

for 8/8

BAL +195 for .3%
BAL -1.5 +295 for .1%

ATX · Aug 8, 2003

CLE +127 for .3%
CLE -1.5 +245 for .1%
CLE under 9 -115 for .2%
I'm pretty sure that the books are counting on ANA to get a W here, so be careful on this one.