MLB for the week of 8/4

[ATX]

KC/WSOX under 9.5 -106 for .4%

not much out there today, leaning to MIN, KC, and TB/TOR is giving me a headache.

last week: +1.829%

7/28 +1.392%
7/29 -.312%
7/30 +.190%
7/31 -.123%
8/1 +1.996%
8/2 -.400%
8/3 +.086%

wk4 prev: +1.517%
wk3 prev: +7.597%
wk2 prev: +1.938%

I should really be risking an avg of 1% per baseball wager instead of .4% which in theory would more than double the yield, but I'll take the more than 2% a week avg. What typically happens when I increase wager size is the inevitable bad streak. I have a large enough sample size from this baseball year and last year to determine expected ROI and it's almost too good to be true esp. recently--which means a losing streak should be close.

 

[ATX]

MINN -107 for .3%
MINN -1.5 +152 for .1%

TOR -104 for .3%
TOR -1.5 +144 for .1%

KC at best avail for appx the same.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Regarding streaks, I believe one should not get too excited about a temporary streak, either good or bad. The bad will come with the good. Since you have samples from a long time period you now know how you will do in the long run.

I always enjoy reading your sound advice.

 

[ATX]

you are right about streaks. I've seen too many people get excited about extreme winning streaks, they are nice, but if you know what your historical win rate is then expect a regression to the mean sooner than later. Losing streaks are much the same, a good way to remain optimistic when losing one's ass is to realize that this is what you were planning for, otherwise money management would be an afterthought, and things will turn around soon--if you have historically come out ahead over a large number of games/seasons. Generally, I wager a little less during periods of extreme win streaks, and wager the same amount if not a little more during losing streaks, while at the same time identifying perceived value on the day's events. What I've noticed, is that many times I have put myself in a bad spot by pressing or wagering too much BR on events that dont have very much value. This is one advantage to flat betting. Relatively soon, I'll have enough experience in baseball to flat bet 85% of the games, and maybe 15% of the rest will be higher or lower in wager size as a recognition of differing value. Just an idea, I'm always trying to adjust. What I'm worried about is not having a bad day since 7/12 (-1% or more).

 

[MdTerps]

atx you got football play for tonight? i like kc so far but waiting as cost me 1 point line movement so far

 

[ATX]

MD,
I took KC +1 for .3% last week, it's posted in the NFL forum, with a line of -2.5 I'm not sure what I would do. My basic strategy is to take every dog and put a little on the dog ML for NFLX. I think I explained my strategy and reasoning in the NFL forum for this, but basically I feel preseason games are close to toss-ups so there is value with the dog. There are always exceptions, but that is what I plan on doing unless I find a solid case to go the other way. Last year I tried to middle a few of the games and didnt have much luck, so I'll see if this works. Keep in mind that I'm wagering .3% on NFLX, regular season games will be closer to 1.5%, I already got down on ATL -2 vs DAL, I think this has a decent shot at crossing 3 before the SEPT date and I'll weight a middle. I also like MINN +6, JAX +3.5, and some others but I'm waiting for now. In the NCAA I'm waiting on the KState vs CAL line to come out, I did a little research so far and jotted some stuff down in the NCAA forum, Snyder loves to put up big numbers, and Roberson and Sproles should once again be two of the top offensive threats in the nation.

 

[ATX]

I may wager on the KC/GB 2nd half. I was watching TB/NYJ from jail so I couldnt do much with it. Public Intoxication, like someone goes to Sixth Street and doesnt get intoxicated.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Speaking of getting intoxicated, have you ever been to Sugar's in Austin? Great place!

 

[ATX]

yup!! I've only been to Sugar's a couple of times, but I've been to the Yellow Rose quite a few, IMO it's a lot better at the Rose. We've taken some girls there on occasion and things got a little crazy, I'd hate to have JJ and Railbird think badly of me now, lol.

 

[ATX]

added .2% to TOR -104 and .1% to TOR-1.5 +145
KC +142 for .3%
KC -1.5 +197 for .1%

 

[ATX]

DET +230 for .2%
DET -1.5 +410 for .1%

CLE +136 for .3%
CLE -1.5 +270 for .1%
under 8.5 +100 for .2%

BAL -1.5 +165 for .3%

TEX +235 for .2%
TEX -1.5 +355 for .1%

BOS -1.5 +123 for .2%

TB +121 for .3%
TB -1.5 +221 for .1%

 

[ATX]

MIL +162 for .2%
MIL -1.5 +280 for .1%

NYM +146 for .2%
NYM -1.5 +220 for .1%

FLA +137 for .2%
FLA -1.5 +214 for .1%

KC +205 for .3%
KC -1.5 +310 for .1%

COL -1.5 +143 for .3%

 

[MdTerps]

with those last set of plays would you be thinking your do for a lossing streak and you are fadeing yourself would you?

 

[ATX]

no, I never fade myself. It just wouldnt make a whole lot of sense.

MON +220 for .2%
MON -1.5 +340 for .1%

 

[ATX]

PITT +227 for .3%
PITT -1.5 +362 for .1%

SD +148 for .2%
SD -1.5 +290 for .1%

CIN +210 for .3%
CIN -1.5 +346 for .1%

y-day: -.287%

 

[ATX]

for 8/6

KC +210 for .3%
KC -1.5 +318 for .1%

TB +190 for .3%
TB -1.5 +367 for .1%

 

[ATX]

BAL -119 for .5%

 

[ATX]

BAL -1.5 +176 for .2%

 

[ATX]

SD +140 for .4%
SD -1.5 +295 for .1%

 

[ATX]

MIL +190 for .3%
MIL -1.5 +340 for .1%

ANA +300 for .2%
ANA -1.5 +480 for .1%