ATX-
You write how you wish you would have put 3% down per game rather than what you have been putting down. Would your bankroll have withstood the bad streaks had you put down 3% per game?
You and I always write about correct money management. Being able to withstand a bad streak is most essential to money management. Those streaks can go 10-15 in a row or even be 25 losses out of 30. That would wipe out someone who was betting 5% per game.
You write how you wish you would have put 3% down per game rather than what you have been putting down. Would your bankroll have withstood the bad streaks had you put down 3% per game?
You and I always write about correct money management. Being able to withstand a bad streak is most essential to money management. Those streaks can go 10-15 in a row or even be 25 losses out of 30. That would wipe out someone who was betting 5% per game.
yeah, it would have withstood those streaks, I would have been a mess but at 3% I can lose a lot more than 30 in a row, if I lose more than 20% of BR I adjust wager size so that 1% is .8%, I cant post reasons for everything I look at 20-40 different things, and basically just come up with a break-even number for each wager. The more the current price is off, the more I wager on that event.
ATL +148 for .4%
ATL -1.5 +242 for .2%
SF used a lot of pen last night, Schmidt isnt great vs ATL, SF scoring is way down...I especially like the +242 on ATL to win by 2, I would take ATL at +128. I like the under but may pass.
ATL +148 for .4%
ATL -1.5 +242 for .2%
SF used a lot of pen last night, Schmidt isnt great vs ATL, SF scoring is way down...I especially like the +242 on ATL to win by 2, I would take ATL at +128. I like the under but may pass.
TEX +186 for .4%
TEX -1.5 +290 for .2%
This is somewhat of a trap as TEX has won 800 in a row, but I have been watching this TEX team and they are starting to put it together. I'm going to be dumb and take TEX like millions of other people, maybe they'll put up a new pillar or two at the casinos for my next visit. Oh yeah, and I'm inclined to think that Colon may be headed into one of those short downward pitching spirals, and Lewis has a lot more confidence since he pitched 7 sorta strong innings with 11 KO 2 BB against somebody last time out, I cant remember who...
Colon 7-5 at home, Lewis 4-5 away, TEX bats are always dangerous, I'd take TEX at +160.
yesterday +.565%
TEX -1.5 +290 for .2%
This is somewhat of a trap as TEX has won 800 in a row, but I have been watching this TEX team and they are starting to put it together. I'm going to be dumb and take TEX like millions of other people, maybe they'll put up a new pillar or two at the casinos for my next visit. Oh yeah, and I'm inclined to think that Colon may be headed into one of those short downward pitching spirals, and Lewis has a lot more confidence since he pitched 7 sorta strong innings with 11 KO 2 BB against somebody last time out, I cant remember who...
Colon 7-5 at home, Lewis 4-5 away, TEX bats are always dangerous, I'd take TEX at +160.
yesterday +.565%
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So you would have won more betting 3% per game. Have you thought about upping your bets a little bit more since you have been rather successful lately?
Sometimes it takes a second person's opinion to give you a different perspective on things so that is why I'm making that suggestion.
Good luck.
Sometimes it takes a second person's opinion to give you a different perspective on things so that is why I'm making that suggestion.
Good luck.
BGO, I'll probably increase them a little next year. Maybe risk 1% on more upper tiers and risk .6 to .7 on regular plays and keep nominals at .2 to .4%. I am returning about 1.5% per week on avg wagers of .4% and that may lower a bit, it should. I am looking at trying to return about 2% per week on avg wagers of .6%, I wont increase much until next year or in the playoffs. One reason is I cant spend as much time on baseball from here on out with football season. I actually didnt really plan on making much on bases since this is more or less my second season, I planned on treading water while ID'ing correlations and system plays with a decent win%. I've found a couple and just keep grinding away while I see if they hold up. It makes it a lot more difficult to lose money if you stay away from favorites over -140 for the most part. I doubt I'll ever risk 1% on every play in baseball, there is just too many random occurrences and these f'n relievers...With a lower wager size and higher volume it really diversifies pretty well--if you know what you are doing. Even if a line is just 5 cents off, it really adds up over time. One other thing is that the RL's are a LOT sharper now, earlier in the season I played straight ML's only as a hedge for the RL. Now there are less games with a lot of value on the RL, especially on favorites. This is another reason I dont want to raise wager size.
NYM +149 for .3%
NYM -1.5 +230 for .1%
KC +133 for .3%
KC -1.5 +190 for .1%
yesterday -1.493%
NYM +149 for .3%
NYM -1.5 +230 for .1%
KC +133 for .3%
KC -1.5 +190 for .1%
yesterday -1.493%
the main reason I dont risk 3% like you mentioned is b/c of the psych. effect. On a day like yesterday I would have lost over 8%. Sometimes the amount lost really eats at you, and makes it hard to see clearly. That is the main enemy that I have. It took me a while to get anything done today, I get pissed at myself for doing stupid things like taking TEX when I knew it was a "trap", but I have to force myself to get over it and focus on the next day's events. I do really enjoy 2nd halves, you have about 10 minutes to evaluate and line shop, it's pretty close to a drug rush. I've still got NFLX to look at, time for beer.
