CLE +110 for .4%
CLE -1.5 +196 for .2%
blue, you cant worry about single, independent days, if you do then you are exposing too much of your bankroll. I have very few losing weeks, and months' ends are really all I care about. I would much rather go up 1.4% and then down 1.15% then up, then down, than have those 70W 18L weeks. Grinding out profits over time means you have an advantage, big winning streaks without consistency is more a property of luck than anything else, everybody wins DD in a row at some point. Look at how many people began posting during each sports season and how many are left. Reminds me of Eminem--"chickens they come and go...",lol. Good luck to ya Blue, cant wait for more football.
yesterday -1.148%
CLE -1.5 +196 for .2%
blue, you cant worry about single, independent days, if you do then you are exposing too much of your bankroll. I have very few losing weeks, and months' ends are really all I care about. I would much rather go up 1.4% and then down 1.15% then up, then down, than have those 70W 18L weeks. Grinding out profits over time means you have an advantage, big winning streaks without consistency is more a property of luck than anything else, everybody wins DD in a row at some point. Look at how many people began posting during each sports season and how many are left. Reminds me of Eminem--"chickens they come and go...",lol. Good luck to ya Blue, cant wait for more football.
yesterday -1.148%
yeah, Blue, it happens all the time. Rivera just tagged me as well. It's better to have a bunch of small wagers on the bad beats or cracked up relievers than just a couple of big wagers on a couple of games. There's no way to tell which games will have all the BS and when, that is why I play any game in which I feel I have an advantage. It all evens out over time, solid numbers are based on volume, if you have an advantage it will show up over time. I have a ton of "bad beats" but I also wager on a lot of dogs, they are dogs for a reason--a lot of times they stink up the joint in the late innings. This is also my first full baseball season, I wagered on about 750 games last year.
try to structure things so that your bankroll will show a lot of profit 6 months from now, no, more like 2 years from now. It's best to make it so that day-to-day wins/losses shouldnt matter a whole lot. I try to find just a few cents +EV on more than 3000 wagers a year. If I risked more on each wager the numbers show I would profit more, but I'd rather have it so that I dont really care about individual days, they dont really hurt me. Bad beats and my own mistakes simply piss me off, I laugh about it later. The sheer volume masks a lot of mistakes, I made a ton of mistakes last week and still made almost 3% between MLB and NFLX. And that was on wagers averaging less than .3% each. Think about what you can do with that kind of return each year. I have a lot of goodies for football, hope you stick around for it.
One of the hardest things for me to realize in the beginning, even though I always did well, was that there are games with almost the same perceived value the NEXT DAY. Dont push things too hard today, you may not be able to get down on even better things tomorrow. If you are making large wagers on lines that move the other way, or dont move at all, it's typically a good sign for the bookmaker, and a bad one for you. There are always exceptions, but that is one of the first things that I learned to recognize. There were so many times that I ruined a good week with a single wager.
One of the hardest things for me to realize in the beginning, even though I always did well, was that there are games with almost the same perceived value the NEXT DAY. Dont push things too hard today, you may not be able to get down on even better things tomorrow. If you are making large wagers on lines that move the other way, or dont move at all, it's typically a good sign for the bookmaker, and a bad one for you. There are always exceptions, but that is one of the first things that I learned to recognize. There were so many times that I ruined a good week with a single wager.
ATX when you say .3% you do mean 1/3 of 1%, correct? Where if your bankroll was $5000 you would have $15 on the bet?
I guess what I am asking is did you risk 60% of your bankroll today or 6%?
I think some people are reading that you are risking 3%, 5% etc when in fact it is alot less right?
thanks for your response, and thanks for taking the time to post. It is poster's like you that keep me coming back. I know how it can be a hassle posting and getting down on the games. One of the main reasons I stay away from writing up my thoughts. The way I see it, if people see that I win consistantly, who cares why. But after reading your posts, I see it helps not only organize your own thoughts, but can also help other handicappers look at things a different way.
sorry for the book
TN
I guess what I am asking is did you risk 60% of your bankroll today or 6%?
I think some people are reading that you are risking 3%, 5% etc when in fact it is alot less right?
thanks for your response, and thanks for taking the time to post. It is poster's like you that keep me coming back. I know how it can be a hassle posting and getting down on the games. One of the main reasons I stay away from writing up my thoughts. The way I see it, if people see that I win consistantly, who cares why. But after reading your posts, I see it helps not only organize your own thoughts, but can also help other handicappers look at things a different way.
sorry for the book
TN
1/3 of 1%.
I wish I had been risking 3% in hindsight.
There is a very good reason that I'm risking so little in MLB and NFLX. I have zero experience in NFLX. In MLB I dont have 2500 wagers under my belt. Last year I risked an avg of 1% to 1.5% per game on MLB. I did really well until right about this time, gave almost half of it back until the playoffs. The reason I mention this is b/c the 1% to 1.5% was almost the same AMOUNT last year as .6% and .4% is now. I'm still very much learning the baseball market, and I dont want to risk more until I have the sample size to prove an advantage. I keep the AMOUNT the same b/c this helps reduce the risk of giving ANYTHING back while I'm gaining experience. In football and basketball I risk an avg of 1-2% per wager (and it is progressive) b/c I know what my ROI is. I hope this makes sense.
If your bankroll is somewhat easily replaceable then you may want to risk an avg of 2% per wager. I hate saying this b/c it is VERY HARD TO BREAK THIS HABIT AT HIGHER LEVELS. When do you decide to bring it down to 1%? And also the more pronounced streaks involved really cloud your decision-making. I"VE BEEN THERE!! You get to the point where you are more concerned with the 15% you lost yesterday than the huge +EV wager staring you right in the face today. You start second guessing yourself, and think you "need some time off..." Hell, I took DET today, lol. Does it matter? NO. Will I take DET again this year? NO. The hardest thing to beat is the psychological factors, once you learn to consistently recognize value it comes naturally, stress and self-doubt are the big enemies. Actually poor MONEY MANAGEMENT is the biggest enemy, but that is the easiest to take care of. If I had been risking 1% on each play last week would I have made over 12%? YES. Do I care? NO, I made almost 3%, and had a great time.
I wish I had been risking 3% in hindsight.
There is a very good reason that I'm risking so little in MLB and NFLX. I have zero experience in NFLX. In MLB I dont have 2500 wagers under my belt. Last year I risked an avg of 1% to 1.5% per game on MLB. I did really well until right about this time, gave almost half of it back until the playoffs. The reason I mention this is b/c the 1% to 1.5% was almost the same AMOUNT last year as .6% and .4% is now. I'm still very much learning the baseball market, and I dont want to risk more until I have the sample size to prove an advantage. I keep the AMOUNT the same b/c this helps reduce the risk of giving ANYTHING back while I'm gaining experience. In football and basketball I risk an avg of 1-2% per wager (and it is progressive) b/c I know what my ROI is. I hope this makes sense.
If your bankroll is somewhat easily replaceable then you may want to risk an avg of 2% per wager. I hate saying this b/c it is VERY HARD TO BREAK THIS HABIT AT HIGHER LEVELS. When do you decide to bring it down to 1%? And also the more pronounced streaks involved really cloud your decision-making. I"VE BEEN THERE!! You get to the point where you are more concerned with the 15% you lost yesterday than the huge +EV wager staring you right in the face today. You start second guessing yourself, and think you "need some time off..." Hell, I took DET today, lol. Does it matter? NO. Will I take DET again this year? NO. The hardest thing to beat is the psychological factors, once you learn to consistently recognize value it comes naturally, stress and self-doubt are the big enemies. Actually poor MONEY MANAGEMENT is the biggest enemy, but that is the easiest to take care of. If I had been risking 1% on each play last week would I have made over 12%? YES. Do I care? NO, I made almost 3%, and had a great time.
