MLB Fantasy News 2011

[HacheMan]

Time to Worry About Utley?
Chase Utley has rarely talked openly about injuries over the years, so to hear him acknowledge over the weekend that he has some concern about his ailing right knee is a bit troubling, especially coming off a season where he appeared just 115 games, his lowest such total since 2004.

The 32-year-old second baseman underwent an MRI last weekend which revealed patellar tendinitis, but he was given a cortisone injection on Friday after his knee failed to respond. While the Phillies are optimistic that the shot will get his recovery on track, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. hasn't dismissed the possibility that there could be more than tendinitis going on with the knee.

We'll learn more about his progress in the next few days, but the uncertainty surrounding Utley is unfortunate considering that many drafts are already underway. There's little doubt that Utley remains an elite player when he's actually on the field -- he had a .323/.436/.531 batting line and five home runs and 22 RBI last September, for example -- but increased concerns about his durability will likely cause him to drop on draft boards.

This is my own personal ranking system, but I'm prepared to put Utley fourth among fantasy second basemen behind Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips. In fact, I wouldn't have any problem waiting for Ian Kinsler or Dan Uggla, either.

If you want a more complete look at our second base projections, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. You'll find close to 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, updated depth charts, ADP data, printable cheat sheets, customizable scoring features and more. It's the best decision you can make to be ahead of the game on draft day.

While fantasy owners continue to cross their fingers for Utley, let's take a look at some more news and notes from around spring training.

Down Goes Brown

Saturday was a bit of a double-whammy for Phillies fans. Just hours after the news about Utley, right field hopeful Domonic Brown fractured the hook of the hamate, a bone at the base of the hand near the wrist, during his first at-bat of the day. Brown was actually able to finish the at-bat and finally snapped his 0-for-15 hitless skid in the process, but the injury was confirmed after he left the game for an X-ray.

Brown is scheduled to see hand specialist Randall Culp on Monday and if surgery is recommended, as most expect, he would likely miss somewhere around 4-6 weeks. The injury is a tough blow for the top prospect and you can't help but wonder whether his power will be affected by the potential surgery, at least in the short term.

Of course, the silver lining of the situation is that Ben Francisco is off to a ridiculous start this spring. The 29-year-old outfielder is batting .364 (8-for-22) with two home runs and six RBI over his first eight Grapefruit League games. Granted, spring stats don't mean a whole lot, but our projection for Francisco (.265/.334/.449) isn't far off from what we had for Brown (.263/.320/.453) this season, anyway.

Francisco is unlikely to have much value in mixed leagues, but NL-only owners should obviously take note. Remember, he had 15 homers and 14 stolen bases in just 405 at-bats between the Indians and Phillies in 2009. He should hold his own in right field, at least until Brown is ready to contribute.

Twins Rotation Taking Shape

After naming Brian Duensing as a starter early last week, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire gave one of the final two rotation spots to Nick Blackburn over the weekend. His decision leaves Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey competing for the fifth starter job.

It's a shame, really, since Baker and Slowey offer far more upside than Blackburn from a fantasy perspective. While Blackburn has reached double-digit wins in each of the last three seasons, he has never averaged more than 4.47 K/9. He shouldn't have a place in mixed leagues unless we're talking about a favorable matchup in a streaming situation.

We've heard quite a few rumors about a potential trade involving Francisco Liriano, but Buster Olney of ESPN.com and Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune have picked up some chatter in recent days that the Twins are willing to deal Slowey. We'd much rather see Slowey go than Liriano, obviously, although it's difficult to know how much they'll get in return for someone who is a legitimate injury risk.

White Sox Lock Up Thornton

Matt Thornton has consistently flown under the radar as one of the best relievers in the sport despite compiling a 2.70 ERA and 245 strikeouts over 200 1/3 innings since the start of the 2008 season. Fortunately the White Sox know they have something pretty special here.

They rewarded his excellence Sunday by agreeing to a two-year, $12 million extension with a $6 million club option for 2014. The White Sox exercised his $3 million option for 2011 in October, so the new deal won't begin until 2012.

Thornton had eight saves last season and enters spring training as the favorite for the closer role, though the White Sox aren't quite ready to hand him the job outright. Last year's first-round pick Chris Sale is also a possibility for the gig, while Sergio Santos and Jesse Crain are in the periphery.

 

[HacheMan]

2011 AL Outfield Overview
We're covering the American League outfielders this week. Four of my top five outfielders reside in the NL, with Carl Crawford serving as the lone exception. That won't surprise anyone. What will baffle a few is that I have Nelson Cruz next on the list, three spots ahead of Josh Hamilton at No. 9.

I see Cruz as the better bet of the two to stay healthy, even though he missed 25 more games than Hamilton did last year. There's no guarantee that the changes he made to his running style to accommodate his troublesome hamstrings will pay off, but he has the right approach. I don't expect Cruz to hit anywhere near .318 again, and I give Hamilton the clear edge in average. However, Cruz more than makes up for it with his basestealing: he's swiped 37 bases in 45 attempts the last two seasons. The power numbers should be pretty close: including the postseason, Hamilton averaged a homer every 15.6 at-bats last season, Cruz one every 16.3. Both will hit 30 homers if they stay off the DL. And I think Cruz has the better chance of doing so.

AL Outfield Overview

Underrated

Jacoby Ellsbury (Red Sox) - My favorite of the potential 60-steal guys, all of whom seem to be a bit undervalued at the moment. Juan Pierre, Brett Gardner and Rajai Davis also deserve mention here. Ellsbury, though, has the most upside in the group while hitting at the top of Boston's powerful lineup. Unlike the others, he's capable of finishing with 10 homers and 60 RBI and still contending for the league lead in steals.

Nick Markakis (Orioles) - Good riddance, Terry Crowley. With any luck, he'll take Markakis' declining homer totals with him now that he's out as Baltimore's hitting coach. Markakis went from hitting 23 homers as a 23-year-old sophomore in 2007 to 20, 18 and 12 the last three years. He's continued to hit right around .300 each season and he's remained a doubles machine, but he needs to stop flipping the ball the other way when he's facing mediocre right-handers. Since he's probably not going to threaten 20 steals again, he doesn't have the upside he once did. However, he makes for a great value pick, given his durability and the fact that he'll hit second or third in a good lineup. Even in his somewhat disappointing 2008 and 2009 seasons, he averaged 100 runs scored and 94 RBI.

Austin Jackson (Tigers) - Oddly enough, the 2010 AL Rookie of the Year just isn't receiving a lot of affection in early drafts. Like most everyone else apparently, I see his average slipping. Last year's .293 mark didn't compute, not when it came with 170 strikeouts. Jackson, though, should ease back on the strikeouts a bit this year, and I see him adding a bit more power to his game. My projection of a .280 average, nine homers, 97 runs scored, 54 RBI and 30 steals calls for him to be a top-40 outfielder. I rank him 16th among American Leaguers.

Overrated

Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners) - Ichiro is far from a typical player, but he is 37 now and the aging process has to set in at some point. He followed up his worst year as a major leaguer in 2008 with one of his best in 2009 before falling off again last year. I'd still count on Ichiro hitting .310-.320, but .350 is less realistic than it used to be and he's again not going to get much help from his teammates. Adding up his runs and RBI, Ichiro has gone from 179 in 2007 to 145 to 134 to 117 last season. It takes a major toll on his value.

Vernon Wells (Angels) - Wells hit .321/.363/.628 at Rogers Centre last year and .227/.301/.407 on the road. That was probably a fluke, but the fact remains that he's going from a park that has recently been very kind to right-handed power hitters to one that plays just about neutral. He's not much of a basestealer, and he hasn't reached 90 runs scored or RBI since 2006. I place him 40th in the outfield, six spots below Jackson.

Jason Kubel (Twins) - We saw what Kubel was capable of in 2009, when he hit .300 with 28 homers and 103 RBI. Last year, though, he slipped all of the way to .249, and he was fortunate to get enough playing time to reach 92 RBI with the way Jim Thome outclassed him all season long. Thome is back, and Kubel's best position remains DH. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire will find a way to make it all work out again, and I am projecting Kubel to get his 500 at-bats and 80 RBI. However, I don't expect he'll be a big asset in any category.

Sleepers

Matt Joyce (Rays) - Joyce will have more of a fight for playing time than anticipated following the Rays' additions of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, but he should be in the lineup versus pretty much every right-hander after hitting .262/.386/.524 in 191 at-bats against them last season. He'll probably play right field most of the time, with Ben Zobrist starting at first or second against righties. Since he's likely to take a seat against lefties, he's not going to be a big asset in runs and RBI. However, he should be good for about 20 homers and 70 RBI.

Alex Gordon (Royals) - At age 27, Gordon is about to get his last chance in Kansas City. He was a bust last year, batting .215 with just 20 RBI in 242 at-bats. He was even thrown out on five of his six steal attempts. Gordon, though, was dominant in Triple-A, hitting .315/.442/.577 in 260 at-bats. It's too late now for him to turn into a star, but I expect that he'll put together a solid five- or six-year run as a regular left fielder. A sneaky good basestealer in the past, he has nice upside for a guy who figures to go for $5 or less in AL-only leagues.

Andruw Jones (Yankees) - Jones has hit 36 homers, driven in 91 runs and stolen 14 bases in 559 at-bats over the last two seasons. He's penciled in for less playing time with the Yankees than he got with the White Sox last year, but he should provide a lot of value if anyone ahead of him gets hurt. With Yankee Stadium helping him along, he'll get his 15-20 homers, all without getting enough at-bats to do much damage to a fantasy team's batting average.

Other thoughts

I'm lukewarm on Grady Sizemore, ranking him as the No. 49 outfielder currently. I'd go higher if he came back and impressed during the second half of March, but he's iffy for Opening Day as is. … Julio Borbon and Michael Brantley are youngsters capable of swiping 30-40 bases, and neither should break the budget. … Others will label Detroit's Ryan Raburn as a big-time sleeper, but I think he'll struggle some while playing regularly against right-handers for the first time. He should be good for 15-20 homers, but I don't think he'll be of a lot of help elsewhere.

 

[HacheMan]

So Far, So Good For Nathan
We're usually told to ignore spring training results, but it turns out there are exceptions to nearly every rule. In the case of Joe Nathan, who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, each appearance is worthy of intense scrutiny, especially for fantasy owners.

The good news is that Nathan hasn't skipped a beat in his rehab. He tossed his third straight scoreless appearance on Monday and was sitting between 89-91 mph on the stadium's radar gun, according to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Nathan averaged 93.6 mph on his fastball back in 2009, so his velocity hasn't completely bounced back yet, but the veteran right-hander has been pleased with the movement and command of his pitches.

Nathan has had two days of rest between appearances until now, but told Kelly Thesier of MLB.com on Monday that he's to the point where he believes he can pitch every other day. That could happen as soon as this week. He hopes to pitch on back-to-back days later in the spring.

I would expect the Twins to avoid using him on back-to-back days early on in the season -- remember, Matt Capps makes for a pretty nice insurance policy -- but even if they do, Nathan looks like a pretty safe pick right now. Considering that he is falling to the late rounds of many mock drafts this spring, he has a chance to be an excellent bargain. Of course, the more good news we hear about Nathan in the coming days, the more likely he'll be on everyone's wish list.

For a more complete look at our reliever projections, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. This thing is filled with nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, customizable scoring features, expert mock drafts and more. You'll be the smartest guy or gal in the room on draft day.

While things are looking up for Nathan, here are some more news and notes from around spring training.

Feliz Prefers to Close

The other day I detailed Neftali Feliz's first audition for the starting rotation. The Rangers still intend to stretch him out as a starting pitcher, but the 22-year-old right-hander told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News on Monday that if given the choice, he would rather remain the closer than become a starter.

Feliz used the word "comfortable" to describe how he feels in the bullpen, which is understandable given the fact that he hasn't made a professional start since June of 2009 at the Triple-A level. Anthony Andro of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported Monday that the Rangers hope to make a decision about Feliz's role for this season on or around March 22, so that timeline won't give him much of a chance to get acclimated.

While most will agree that Feliz could prove to be much more valuable (and wealthier) as a starting pitcher in the long-term, it's increasingly likely that he'll remain Ron Washington's closer, at least for this season. If he does, there's no reason why he shouldn't be one of the first closers of the board.

Cain Throws Bullpen

Matt Cain gave everyone a bit of a scare last week when an MRI revealed some inflammation in his throwing elbow, but he has made fine progress over the past few days. After throwing on consecutive days over the weekend without any issues, he tossed a 10-minute bullpen session on Monday.

Cain is scheduled to throw off a mound again Thursday, possibly in a simulated game, after which he could return to Cactus League action. The 26-year-old right-hander will likely end up missing three turns through the starting rotation, but the Giants remain confident that he'll be ready for the start of the season.

Some have been waiting on Cain to regress for a couple years now, not because of the threat of injury, but because he is notorious for outperforming his xFIP. I'm not really sure how he does it, though I suspect some of his success can be attributed to his home park. I'm not about to start betting against him now, though.

Nishioka to Play Second Base

Here's a leftover from the weekend, but an important one.

Though many expected this to happen, anyway, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire announced Saturday that Tsuyoshi Nishioka will be his second baseman this season while Alexi Casilla will play shortstop. The decision was made just one day after Nishioka committed a throwing error on the first play of the game while manning the shortstop position against the Rays.

Gardenhire said that Nishioka simply felt more comfortable at second base, so while this is probably a good thing for the Twins' defense, it's kind of a bummer for fantasy owners who would rather see him qualify at shortstop, a position which is especially thin in AL-only leagues.

The 26-year-old switch-hitter is batting .267 (4-for-15) with a triple, a stolen base and three RBI so far this spring and is expected to bat No. 2 in Gardenhire's lineup. He's obviously a bit of an unknown quantity still, but he has the potential to pile up plenty of runs scored hitting in front of the likes of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau (hopefully) and Michael Cuddyer, among others.

 

[HacheMan]

No Opener For Greinke
Mardi Gras has passed. St. Patrick's Day is coming up. Then it's time for the real party: fantasy draft season.

A strong majority of fantasy baseball leagues host their drafts in mid-to-late March, after spring position battles have mostly ended and major league teams have begun trimming their rosters toward the eventual 25. Look for Rotoworld's first mock draft this weekend, hosted and analyzed by yours truly.

Dying to see a mock draft now? Check out Rotoworld's Online Baseball Draft Guide. You'll find an industry expert mock, nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, customizable scoring features and more. There's nothing like it on the market and nothing better to have at your side on draft day.

Down Goes Greinke...

The National League Central will already be without one of its aces for the entire 2011 season. Now another National League Central ace is hurting.

The Brewers revealed Tuesday that new right-hander Zack Greinke suffered a fracture in his rib cage while playing a game of basketball earlier this spring and will miss at least the first three weeks of the regular season. The injury was initially diagnosed as a bruise, but further testing showed a broken bone and Greinke has been asked to rest for the next 2-4 weeks.

It's tough news for the Brewers, who were probably going to name Greinke their Opening Day starter, but it's far from a crushing blow. If the former Cy Young Award winner can avoid setbacks and return when expected, he will only miss three starts.

Greinke remains a highly valuable fantasy starter and we here at Rotoworld remain excited at the thought of watching him pitch in the National League.

Morneau Makes Sudden Debut

On to more uplifting news.

In a surprise move Tuesday afternoon in Twins camp, first baseman Justin Morneau took the field in a "B" game for his first live action since July 7 of last season, when he suffered a season-ending concussion on a knee to the head in a game against the Blue Jays.

Morneau grounded into a fielder's choice in his first at-bat Tuesday. In his second at-bat, he ripped a three-run double down the right field line. The 29-year-old reported feeling no concussion-like symptoms during or after the spring debut and should begin appearing in Grapefruit League games later this week.

It took Morneau nearly five months to begin feeling better after the concussion and he wasn't at 100 percent when he arrived at spring training, but it sure seems like he is quickly working his way back. Remember, he was probably the league's MVP through the first half of the 2010 season with a .345/.437/.618 batting line, 18 home runs and 65 RBI. There is plenty more where that came from.

Aardsma Watch Begins

The Mariners have known for months now that closer David Aardsma is not going to be available for the start of the regular season because of his ongoing recovery from January hip surgery. Now the M's are beginning to learn that he will probably be out longer than expected.

Aardsma was originally projected to return sometime in mid-April, but he just shed his post-surgery crutches last week and he has not yet begun a throwing program. The right-hander is at least six weeks away, maybe more.

Now we look back to Brandon League. A 27-year-old with a fastball that averaged 95.5 MPH last season, he has all the goods to wrap up any save opportunities that he is trusted with in Aardsma's absence. League finished with a 3.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 79 innings last season and he has 132 strikeouts in his past 153.2 innings of work.

With Aardsma likely out until early May, League is going to have serious fantasy value for at least the first month. He might then regain that value if Aardsma is traded mid-summer.

 

[HacheMan]

Adrian Nearing Debut
The Red Sox are finally getting close to showing off their newly-acquired first baseman.

That's right. Adrian Gonzalez hopes to make his Grapefruit League debut sometime next week.

Gonzalez participated in live batting practice for the second straight day Wednesday, the first time he's done so since October surgery to repair a torn laburm in his right shoulder. He plans to have a light day of activity Thursday, but barring any setbacks, he should resume taking batting practice Friday. From there, it's just a matter of being cleared by the team's medical staff.

We can barely contain our excitement about Gonzalez finally getting the opportunity to play his home games outside of PETCO Park, a place which is regarded as the worst environment for left-handed power hitters. By contrast, Fenway Park is known as one of the more hitter-friendly stadiums in the game.

Sure, the 37-foot tall Green Monster will likely prevent a few would-be homers, but A-Gon is a virtual lock for over 40 doubles because of it. As long as he's healthy, of course. As of right now, we think he should be the third first baseman off the board behind Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera.

For a more complete look at our first base projections, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. We have nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, depth charts, ADP (average draft position) data and much, much more. It's a pretty wise way to separate yourself from the rest of the pack.

Holland Impresses

While Neftali Feliz's role for this season remains an open question, Derek Holland is making a pretty solid case for a rotation spot.

Holland was brilliant Wednesday against the Athletics, only reinforcing our belief that he makes for a legitimate fantasy sleeper this season. The 24-year-old left-hander allowed just two hits over three scoreless innings. He threw 30 out of 37 pitches for strikes while striking out four and walking none.

It would be wrong to get carried away by one spring training start, but remember that Holland showed real signs of progress last season by posting a 4.08 ERA and 54 strikeouts over 57 1/3 innings at the major league level.

It's probably safe to assume that C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter will be in the starting rotation come Opening Day, so that leaves Holland competing against Feliz, Matt Harrison, Michael Kirkman, Dave Bush and Alexi Ogando for one of the final two spots. With Brandon Webb expected to begin the year on the disabled list, I wouldn't be afraid to go the extra dollar on Holland.

Utley's Knee Clouds Outlook

I already went over the Chase Utley situation in detail the other day, but the news didn't get any better Wednesday. Basically, the Phillies are seeking "additional opinions" on Utley's ailing right knee after a recent cortisone shot didn't quite do the job. Surgery remains a last resort here, but the possibility hasn't been ruled out.

When asked about his status for Opening Day, Utley made it clear that he has no intention to rush back on the field. And so, one of the elite players in the game has suddenly become radioactive for fantasy owners.

Again, this is my own personal ranking system, but I now see him sixth among fantasy second baseman behind Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips, Ian Kinsler and Dan Uggla. He could end up being a serious bargain if you're feeling bold enough, but I would try to avoid him in most leagues.

It's only natural that we'll hear some rumors about the Phillies being linked to Michael Young, but Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports that the club will likely look at utility-types rather than a full-time replacement at second base. Knobler names Ramon Santiago of the Tigers as a possibility, but he's barely better offensively than Wilson Valdez, who is probably the best internal option at the moment. Neither would be worth much of an investment from a fantasy perspective.

Stanton Still Sidelined

Young slugger Mike Stanton has yet to make his spring debut due to a strained right quadriceps muscle. And we probably won't see him for at least another 10 days. At least in Grapefruit League action, that is.

Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez announced Wednesday that Stanton will likely play in minor league spring training games before rejoining the big club, which places his return somewhere around March 20. The Marlins are hopeful that he'll be able to get enough at-bats in the final 7-10 days of the exhibition schedule so that he'll be ready for the start of the season. Whatever works.

The 21-year-old outfielder was as advertised upon his promotion to the big leagues last season, smacking 22 homers and 21 doubles in just 359 at-bats. We would be pretty surprised if he didn't reach at least 30 homers this season, which would place him in some pretty elite company for his age.

 

[HacheMan]

Progress For Peavy
Judging by Jake Peavy's first two starts this spring, you wouldn't know that he underwent a unique procedure to repair a detached lat muscle in his shoulder just eight months ago. Many have assumed that Peavy will begin the season on the disabled list, but so far he is defying the odds and exceeding expectations.

Peavy has allowed just one run in 5 2/3 innings over his first two Cactus League starts, including 3 2/3 innings of one-run ball against the Giants on Wednesday. And even though Peavy was dealing with some soreness and a tight right hamstring during his most recent outing, he was still able to dial it up to 91 mph on the radar gun.

The White Sox still need to see that Peavy can bounce back and pitch every fifth day, but there's now a very real chance that he'll take the ball for the fifth game of the season on April 6 against the Royals.

Much like Chase Utley, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran and Brandon Webb, among others, Peavy's situation is a tough call for fantasy owners. There's a chance someone will bite early based on name recognition and his past accomplishments, but realize that U.S. Cellular Field is a much different environment for starting pitchers than PETCO Park. If you're lucky, he'll fall far enough where he can be a low-risk, late-round flier. That's probably where he belongs right now.

For a more complete look at our starting pitcher projections, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. You'll find nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, depth charts, ADP (average draft position) data and much, much more. I'm using it for my drafts, so why not you, too?

Vazquez Finds Some Velocity

You'll hear some people say that the reason Javier Vazquez failed last season was because he simply couldn't cut it in New York. That he somehow shrunk under the spotlight of the big city. It's an easy and lazy scapegoat for his struggles, but thankfully we all know better.

Vazquez's biggest issue last season was that his velocity didn't make the trip from Atlanta. He averaged just 88.7 mph on his fastball, a few ticks below his career average. And, well, you know the rest. The 34-year-old right-hander finished the year with a 5.32 ERA, his highest since his rookie season in 1998.

Now that Vazquez has returned to the National League as a member of the Marlins, the job of pitching coach Randy St. Claire is to try to tap into some of his lost velocity. And according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, it appears they are already off to a pretty good start.

St. Claire has instructed Vazquez to use his lower body more in his delivery, something he did with the Braves in 2009. In turn, Vazquez was clocked at 90 and 91 mph on Wednesday against the Nationals, as opposed to 87 mph during his first outing.

He'll have to keep it up, but this is a very good sign. We already expect Vazquez to benefit by leaving Yankee Stadium and the AL East behind, but he could be a real bargain in mixed leagues if he can sit in the low-90s with regularity again.

Stewart Could Start Season on DL

Rockies manager Jim Tracy indicated to Thomas Harding of MLB.com on Thursday that Ian Stewart could begin the season on the disabled list. Stewart hasn't played since spraining his right knee in a collision with teammate Carlos Gonzalez during the team's first exhibition game back on February 26. In short, he's quickly running out of time to get ready for the season opener and the Rockies don't want to rush him back too soon.

Stewart has legitimate power potential at a position which lacks quality depth this season, so his draft position shouldn't change too much if he's only going to miss a couple weeks. Ty Wigginton, who signed a two-year, $8 million deal with the Rockies in December, should get most of the playing time at third base during his absence.

Wigginton isn't worth drafting in most shallow mixed formats, but don't dismiss him as a fantasy option. He qualifies at first base, second and third in most formats and should be a lock for double-digit homers once again by virtue of playing half of his games at Coors Field. He'll probably play more than you think this season, so keep an eye on him, especially if your league uses a MI (middle infield) spot.

Who's This Bedard Guy?

You may find this hard to believe, but Erik Bedard is throwing a baseball again. Like, off a mound. Against living breathing human beings in a competitive situation. It's all happening.

(covers ears and sings loudly) La-la-la. I'm not listening. La-la-la. I'm not listening...

I get it, I get it. You've probably been burned before. Me too. But the early word is encouraging.

Bedard has allowed one run and struck out eight in 5 2/3 innings over his first three spring appearances, including 2 2/3 innings of one-run ball against an Angels' split-squad team on Thursday.

Of course, with Bedard, the results don't matter nearly as much as the health of his shoulder, which has required three procedures in the span of three years. The good news is that the 32-year-old left-hander tells Greg Johns of MLB.com that he feels as good now as he did back in 2006 and 2007, when he emerged as one of the best pitchers in the American League. Bedard has always been an effective starter when he actually pitches, so he's worth watching if he claims a rotation spot.

You can't rely on the guy to stay healthy for a full season, but you could do worse than throw a buck or two at him on draft day.

 

[HacheMan]

Santana's Season In Doubt?
The Mets probably won't contend this season, but the hope is that they can hang around just long enough until Johan Santana is ready to return somewhere around late-June or early-July. Then, maybe -- just maybe -- they have a chance.

However, from the various reports that circulated over the weekend, it's hard to tell whether Santana will be shut down and potentially miss the entire season or that his rehab from shoulder surgery is going exactly as planned. Let's attempt to make some sense of things, shall we?

Steve Popper and Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record fired the first shot across the bow in the wee small hours of the morning Sunday. One "member" of the Mets' organization told them that Santana has not been progressing in his return to light throwing and that he could be shut down from this phase of his rehab program. Furthermore, they hear that the Mets believe they'll be "lucky" if Santana pitches at all this season.

Santana, on the other hand, vehemently denies this claim, telling Mike Puma of the New York Post that somebody is "lying" about his rehab. The 32-year-old left-hander says that he's "on the right track" and that he's right where he's "supposed to be."

The truth? It's really difficult to say. Santana is still in the early stages of a three-month throwing phase, which Mets general manager Sandy Alderson estimated last month could have him pitching from a mound again as soon as early-May. It's worth noting that the Mets presented this ambitious timeline with the assumption that there wouldn't be any "setbacks." Santana is still scheduled to throw early this week, so we're going to have to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

Everything will depend on the progress of his shoulder, but if the Mets are lagging behind in the standings by Memorial Day, there's simply no reason for him to rush back. Santana has the rest of his career to think about and the Mets still owe him $77.5 million guaranteed through at least 2013.

What does this mean for fantasy owners? Well, don't count on him. Even if he does return for the second half of the season, we can't be sure what he'll be. Sure, pick him up if you have the ability to stash him on the DL, but he's not worth more than a late-round flier at best in most mixed formats. As for keeper leagues, you'll want him with an eye towards 2012 more than anything else.

For a more complete look at our starting pitcher projections, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. We have nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, depth charts, printable cheat sheets, ADP (average draft position) data and much, much more. You'll be one step ahead of your opponents on draft day.

Beltre Set For Cactus League Debut

The Rangers will finally have the chance to see their big offseason acquisition in action Monday, as Adrian Beltre is scheduled to make his Cactus League debut against the Dodgers. Beltre, who agreed to a five-year, $80 million contract in January, has been sidelined since the beginning of camp with a Grade 1 strain of his right calf.

The Rangers initially announced that Beltre would be out for 10-14 days with the injury, but assuming he plays Monday, he will have missed 17 days. Either way, the 31-year-old third baseman is confident that two weeks of games will be enough to get ready for the season.

Beltre batted .321/.365/.553 with 28 home runs, 102 RBI and a .919 OPS with the Red Sox last season. His batting average is likely due for some correction, but he should be able to maintain similar power numbers calling the Ballpark at Arlington home. Keep in mind, he's also expected to bat cleanup this season, so he should have plenty of RBI chances.

Beltre may not have the upside of Evan Longoria, David Wright or Alex Rodriguez from a fantasy baseball perspective, but he's still a very solid option at third base.

Morse's Monster Spring

In case you haven't noticed, Mike Morse is making a mockery of spring training pitching. He's batting .500 (14-for-28) with five home runs, two doubles and 10 RBI over his first nine Grapefruit League games.

I know, I know. We shouldn't put too much stock in spring training statistics. Remember, John Bowker won a starting job in right field for the Giants last season after putting up six home runs and 23 RBI during spring training. He ended up with just five home runs and 21 RBI over 167 plate appearances during the regular season.

Bowker is one recent example in a long list of cautionary tales, but Morse at least showed some promise last season by batting .289/.352/.519 with 15 homers, 12 doubles and 41 RBI over 293 plate appearances. He's going to have to keep it up to beat out Roger Bernadina and Rick Ankiel for playing time, but Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said over the weekend that if the season started tomorrow, Morse would be the starting left fielder.

While it's fair to call Morse a sleeper in NL-only and even some deeper mixed formats, just remember that he has never had more than 300 plate appearances in a single season in the major leagues. It's also possible that he could end up on the weak side of a platoon if he begins to struggle against right-handed pitching. I like him, but he's no lock to be a productive regular.

 

[HacheMan]

2011 NL Outfield Overview
I have to get right to the meat of the column this week. With the NL outfielders, I'm concluding the hitting overviews. I'll be back to speculate on AL pitchers and then NL pitchers over the next couple of weeks.

NL Outfield Overview

Underrated

Matt Kemp (Dodgers) - A first-round pick in many mixed leagues a year ago, Kemp has slipped to the third round after losing nearly 50 points off his average and 15 steals. His defense dropped off even more than his offense, suggesting that he just didn't work as hard as he should have. Kemp, though, is in better shape this spring, and he seems poised to rebound at age 26. Kemp was a career .299 hitter before fading to .249 last season. He should make up most of that, and he's due for his first 30-homer campaign. I rate him fourth in the outfield.

Hunter Pence (Astros) - After a slow start last season, Pence hit .302 with 13 homers and 51 RBI in 71 games in the second half. Now that he's a full-time No. 3 hitter, even in a poor lineup, he should continue to post fine totals in runs and RBI, categories that held him back during his first two full seasons in Houston. Last year, he topped 90 in both, and he also improved as a basestealer, going 18-for-27 on the basepaths after years of 11-for-21 and 14-for-25. With his strikeout rate tumbling, I see his average itching above .290 and a new career-high in homers in store for 2011.

Jason Bay (Mets) - Unlike Justin Morneau, Bay entered spring training having been free of concussion symptoms for months. With Citi Field playing tough for right-handed power hitters, Bay probably isn't going to bounce all of the way back and record his fifth 30-homer season as a major leaguer. However, he's a good bet to post solid all-around numbers, say 25-28 homers and right around 90 RBI. He'll also swipe some bases -- he was 10-for-10 in 95 games before going down last year. I rate him 11th among NL outfielders and 24th overall.

Dexter Fowler (Rockies) - The Rockies say they're committed to keeping Carlos Gonzalez in left field this season, meaning Fowler will be an everyday player if he can keep his average up. The switch-hitter was a big disappointment on the basepaths last year, finishing with just 13 steals after coming in with 27 as a rookie. The Rockies, though, are working with him on that, and as the regular leadoff man, he'll have plenty of chances to run. With his 100-run, 40-steal upside, he's a great late-round pick in mixed leagues.

Overrated

Jayson Werth (Nationals) - Werth has a lot to live up to after signing a seven-year, $126 million contract. I don't see the pressure getting to him, but odds are that his numbers will slip some. He's going from a ballpark that favors right-handed power hitters to one that plays a little shy of neutral. Also, he's trading 19 games against Nationals pitchers for 19 games versus Phillies aces. He's been the 13th outfielder off the board in recent ESPN drafts, but I have him ranked 23rd with a projection that calls for a .263 average, 25 homers, 87 RBI and 17 steals.

Andre Ethier (Dodgers) - Ethier was his usual stellar self last year, but his run and RBI numbers took a beating as the Dodgers struggled. Since the team didn't get much help over the winter, I'm skeptical that Ethier will bounce back to 90 runs or 100 RBI. He's a rock solid player, but since he doesn't excel in any category and he's pretty much a zero in steals, he doesn't place as a top-20 fantasy outfielder on my board.

Cody Ross (Giants) - Because of his October performance, Ross will head into 2011 as an everyday right fielder for the Giants. However, he came in at just .269-14-65 in 525 at-bats in the regular season last year, and most of the damage he did came against lefties (he hit .263/.315/.271 against righties). If he slumps early on, he could be reduced to a platoon role (perhaps in tandem with a Brandon Belt promotion). I rank him 70th in the outfield.

Sleepers

Ben Francisco (Phillies) - Obviously, Francisco isn't so much of a sleeper these days, not with Domonic Brown set to open the season on the DL because of a broken hamate bone. That guaranteed Francisco a starting job he seemed poised to win anyway. Francisco hasn't played much the last year and a half, but he offers nice speed and power. In the equivalent of two years of regular playing time (1,093 at-bats), he has 39 homers and 26 steals. It's entirely possible he'll be the Phillies' right fielder all season long and finish with 20 homers and 75 RBI.

Mike Morse (Nationals) - Again, not as much of a sleeper as he was a couple of weeks ago. Morse, who was competing with Roger Bernadina and Rick Ankiel for playing time in left field, already seems to have won the job with five early homers this spring. I don't expect him to bust through with 25 homers, but I do like his chances of hitting for a solid average and he might drive in 80 runs while batting behind Ryan Zimmerman and Werth.

Fred Lewis (Reds) - Don't underestimate Dusty Baker's desire to have a more natural leadoff hitter; Drew Stubbs will have the job initially, but his strikeout total could get him pushed back down in the order if he fails to get off to a fast start. Lewis is nothing special, but he is quick and he has a little pop. It'd be no surprise to see him overtake Jonny Gomes and become the Reds' left fielder versus right-handers. Gomes only really deserves to play against lefties anyway.

Other thoughts

Andrew McCutchen is a definite top-10 outfielder as the Pirates' likely No. 3 hitter. That shouldn't slow him down too much on the basepaths, and it'll probably lead to him driving in 80 runs or so. … I'd like Jason Heyward better if it didn't appear that he's going to open the season batting sixth. It probably won't last, but it will cost him at-bats and runs scored for as long as it lasts. I still have him ranked 14th. … I was pretty surprised to see Mike Stanton going 18th among outfielders in ESPN drafts. I like his chances of finishing in the top three in the NL in homers, but I don't think he'll hit for a strong enough average to justify going before guys like Jay Bruce and Colby Rasmus. … I have Carlos Beltran 41st in the outfield. I'm not sure he's still a 20-20 threat, though I expect pretty good power numbers when he's healthy.

 

[HacheMan]

Worried About Bailey
Let Monday be a lesson why spending an early or expensive draft pick on a closer is a risky proposition.

The scariest moment of the day -- at least in our little corner of the baseball world -- happened in Goodyear, Arizona, as Athletics closer Andrew Bailey clutched at his surgically-repaired right elbow after throwing a pitch to the Indians' Ezequiel Carrera. He was forced to leave the game and later told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle via text message that he is dealing with tightness in both his elbow and forearm and plans to meet with Dr. James Andrews on Tuesday.

A visit to Andrews doesn't always mean surgery, but this sure doesn't look good. Bailey underwent Tommy John surgery via Dr. Andrews back in 2005 and had his elbow cleaned up by the renowned orthopedist last September. There's always the chance that this was just some scar tissue breaking up, but it would be wise for fantasy owners to prepare themselves for the worst.

With that said, it's a good thing the Athletics went shopping this winter. They have quite a few options in their bullpen, including Grant Balfour and Michael Wuertz, but the most obvious choice for saves is Brian Fuentes, who signed a two-year, $10.5 million contract in January. While recent history tells us that he's better suited to be an elite lefty specialist, Fuentes has 187 career lifetime saves. As often happens in these types of situations, experience wins out.

For a more complete look at our closer projections, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. You'll find nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, depth charts, ADP (average draft position) data and much, much more. It's the best way to set yourself up for a successful season.

Feliz Changes Course

That was fast. Last week, Neftali Feliz said that if given the choice, he would rather remain in the bullpen. However, after tossing four innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers on Monday, now he's ready and willing to be a starting pitcher. What gives?

It appears that Feliz's reversal has a lot to do with the development of a cut fastball, a pitch he has only recently begun throwing. He's quickly grown comfortable throwing the pitch, which could help give him the proper arsenal to be an effective starting pitcher.

There's little doubt that Feliz could be much more valuable throwing 200 innings in a season than the 60 or 70 innings we usually see from closers, so this is absolutely the right course of action for the Rangers in the long-term. The question the Rangers must ask themselves in the next 10 days or so is whether it's the best idea for the club in the short-term.

Assuming Feliz sticks in the rotation, I'd move him down on draft boards, simply because of his inexperience as a starter and a potential innings limit down the road. Alexi Ogando and Mark Lowe would be the most likely candidates for saves, so keep them on your watch list.

A Committee in Washington?

Our final stop on this closer carousel, it appears that Nationals manager Jim Riggleman is leaning towards using a committee in the ninth inning, consisting of Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett and Todd Coffey.

The Nationals would love for Storen to run away with the job -- and that's the likely outcome here -- but he has been a little shaky so far this spring. The good news is that he has turned in consecutive strong outings, so things could change quickly.

Storen, the Nationals' other first-round pick back in 2009, posted a 3.58 ERA and 52/22 K/BB ratio over 55 1/3 innings last season. The Nationals called him up in mid-May, but he didn't get his first save chance until August. He ended up going 5-for-7 in save chances.

I still think Storen ends up with the most saves here, but it's probably a good idea to keep an eye on Clippard, too.

Pineda Favored For Rotation Spot

The general assumption has been that Michael Pineda will be sent down to begin the season, regardless of his performance during spring training, in an effort to delay his service time. However, Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times is hearing something quite different.

Multiple sources tell Baker that the fifth spot in the starting rotation is actually "Pineda's to lose." The 22-year-old right-hander has been the talk of M's camp thus far, posting a 2.57 ERA and 5/3 K/BB ratio over seven innings while touching the mid-to-high 90s on the radar gun.

Pineda's progression was stalled by a sore elbow in 2009, but he posted a 3.36 ERA over 25 starts between Double-A West Tennessee and Triple-A Tacoma last season, averaging 9.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. He has 396 strikeouts over 404 1/3 minor league innings.

While Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik won't confirm Pineda's report -- which isn't surprising given that Luke French is still competing for the fifth starter job -- he did say that Pineda's service time won't impact his decision.

The Mariners' offense won't be much better than they were last season, so don't expect a ton of run support, but Safeco Field is a pretty nice place for a rookie pitcher to call home. Pineda is a must-own in AL-only leagues, but since he's never pitched more than 139 1/3 innings in a season, look for him to be shut down at some point.

 

[HacheMan]

Two Tigers Already Ruled Out
To me, March feels like the longest month of the year.

Every year.

The winter weather still lingers, thunderstorms become a near-daily occurrence, and baseball feeds us fake box scores. But we're halfway through it now, and that means that fantasy draft season is nearly upon us.

Feeling unprepared? Check out Rotoworld's Online Baseball Draft Guide. It contains an industry expert mock draft, nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, customizable scoring features and more. There's nothing nothing better to have at your side on draft day.

A's Get Good News On Bailey. Well, Sort Of.

Oakland closer Andrew Bailey paid a visit to Dr. James Andrews this week after feeling discomfort in the area of his surgically-repaired right elbow. He was diagnosed with a strained forearm and was told that he can resume throwing as soon as the pain and discomfort subsides.

Without an exact timetable on when those symptoms might leave his right arm, it's tough to say whether Bailey is going to be ready for the start of the regular season.

Relievers don't need much time to get stretched out physically, but the A's are going to want to see him throw in a couple more Cactus League games before they feel good about sending him out in the ninth inning on Opening Day. In that regard, the clock is ticking.

It might be worthwhile to grab a Brian Fuentes or Grant Balfour in the later rounds of fantasy drafts this spring.

Two Tigers Already Headed For Disabled List

Tigers manager Jim Leyland announced Tuesday in camp that setup man Joel Zumaya and second baseman Carlos Guillen will not be ready for the start of the regular season due to injury concerns.

Zumaya is still battling soreness in his surgically-repaired elbow and hasn't picked up a baseball in about a week. Guillen, meanwhile, has been slowed by knee issues and only just ran the bases a few days ago.

The announcement was far from surprising and shouldn't have much of an impact on fantasy drafts. Guillen has a decent amount of power potential at a position where such a thing is scarce, but he's had difficulty staying healthy for years now and probably shouldn't be on many mixed league rosters anyway. We'd rather have Will Rhymes, who has real stolen base potential and is likely to see starts at second base in Guillen's absence.

Zumaya carries very little value as a seventh and eighth inning reliever.

Brewers Back Away From Rogers

When the Brewers announced last week that Zack Greinke had a fractured rib and would miss his first couple of regular season outings, 25-year-old Mark Rogers was pegged as his temporary replacement.

Problem: Rogers isn't ready.

The Brewers quickly came to that conclusion Monday when the right-hander allowed two runs on three hits in a one-inning Cactus League debut against the Giants. He was optioned to minor league camp on Tuesday morning.

Rogers is still dealing with tightness in his surgically-repaired shoulder and wouldn't have been able to get properly stretched out for the start of the regular season.

That leaves Wily Peralta as the sudden favorite for the Brewers' makeshift rotation opening. A 21-year-old from the Dominican Republic, he posted a 3.79 ERA and struck out 104 batters in 147.1 innings last season between Single-A Brevard County and Double-A Huntsville.

 

[HacheMan]

Clock Ticking For Kendrys
Those of you holding out hope that Kendrys Morales will be ready for Opening Day? Yeah, it's high time to secure a backup plan, at least for the first couple weeks of the season.

Angels manager Mike Scioscia told Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times on Wednesday that Morales has hit a "plateau" in his rehab from leg surgery. Specifically, he was unable to begin running curves on the grass as scheduled on Tuesday and Wednesday. Not a good sign.

Scioscia has maintained that Morales would need to begin playing in games this weekend in order to have enough at-bats to be ready for Opening Day, but such a timeline is looking pretty unrealistic at the moment.

Fortunately for fantasy owners, first base has all sorts of depth, so there are plenty of alternatives to Morales on draft day. Of course, if he falls far enough, there's a certain point where Morales might make for a nice value pick, as well.

Assuming Morales begins the year on the disabled list, look for Mark Trumbo to fill in at first base. The 25-year-old is off to a monster start this spring, batting .340 with five home runs and 13 RBI over his first 47 at-bats. He left Wednesday's game due to tightness in his groin, but is expected to be back in the next couple of days.

I don't want to put too much emphasis on spring stats here, but remember that Trumbo did tie for the minor league lead last season by hitting 36 home runs with Triple-A Salt Lake. Granted, he accomplished those numbers in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and he'll likely have trouble making consistent contact, but there's no reason why he shouldn't be on your radar in AL-only leagues.

For a more complete look at our first base projections, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. This sucker is packed with nearly 1,000 profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, depth charts, printable cheat sheets, ADP (average draft position) data and much, much more. It's a huge help before draft day.

Thornton To Close?

One of the situations we've been tracking pretty closely this spring is just who will step up to replace Bobby Jenks as closer with the White Sox. Matt Thornton and Chris Sale entered spring training with pretty compelling cases for the role, but it appears that White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen is already leaning in one direction.

According to Peter Gammons of MLB Network, Guillen told him that Thornton has "first dibs" on the ninth inning gig.

And really, it's pretty easy to see why. The 34-year-old Thornton has emerged as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball over the past three seasons, posting a 2.70 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 245 strikeouts across 200 1/3 innings. And while southpaw closers are a rare breed, Thornton handles lefty and righty batters with near equal aplomb. His skills should translate pretty well to the job.

Sale, last year's first-round pick, was given a legitimate chance to make things interesting this spring after posting a 1.93 ERA and 32/10 K/BB ratio over 23 1/3 innings as a rookie last season. However, he hasn't done much with the opportunity, allowing seven runs -- six earned -- on 11 hits over 7 1/3 innings, good enough for a 7.36 ERA. The lanky left-hander is throwing strikes (9/1 K/BB ratio), which is plenty good, but he told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune that he's having trouble locating his pitches.

Sale's struggles may make Guillen's final decision easier, but there's probably a good chance he was leaning in the direction of Thornton in the first place. He's simply the safer option at this point, for the White Sox and fantasy owners alike.

Espinosa Escapes Injury

There was a scary moment in Port St. Lucie on Tuesday night, as Danny Espinosa was carried off the field by a pair of coaches after fouling a ball off his right foot. Though it was easy to think the worst initially, it turns out he only suffered a pretty bad bruise.

Espinosa went for precautionary X-rays on Wednesday which confirmed the initial diagnosis, so the expectation is that he should return to the starting lineup within the next few days. Yes, his sleeper status remains intact.

While we only saw a brief sneak preview down the stretch last season, the 23-year-old switch-hitter possesses good pop and sneaky speed. The second base job was Espinosa's to lose this spring and he's done little to disappoint, batting .324 with two homers, two doubles, 12 RBI and two stolen bases over his first 37 at-bats.

Espinosa probably won't make enough contact to hit for a high batting average, but 15-plus homers and steals are a legitimate possibility, which should place him on your radar in deeper mixed formats.

 

[HacheMan]

2011 MLB Fantasy Mock Draft Fantasy baseball draft season is upon us. Give your preemptive apologies to the family, go buy eight different draft magazines, print off cheat sheets, buy a five-set of highlighters and get to work. Or just skip most of those steps and follow me along as I trek my way through a mock draft that I took part in no more than 24 hours ago. Then check out Rotoworld's Online Baseball Draft Guide, which goes above and beyond with tierings at every position and nearly 1,000 profiles and projections.

Needing selection results and wanting a mixed bag of fantasy owners, I hopped over to Mock Draft Central late Wednesday night and sat down for a live snake-style selection with 11 strangers. The league scoring was standard: 5x5 with your normal categories for hitters (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB) and pitchers (ERA, WHIP, W, SV, K).

I was given first pick. My choices will be italicized throughout the 18-round draft.

Round One

1.1 Albert Pujols
1.2 Hanley Ramirez
1.3 Joey Votto
1.4 Troy Tulowitzki
1.5 Carlos Gonzalez
1.6 Carl Crawford
1.7 Robinson Cano
1.8 Miguel Cabrera
1.9 David Wright
1.10 Ryan Braun
1.11 Evan Longoria
1.12 Alex Rodriguez

My Pick: Pujols is going to be selected first overall in just about every standard fantasy league this season, and rightly so. He has posted massive numbers for 10 straight seasons and he's now playing for a contract -- possibly the richest contract in the history of the sport.

Best Value: Pretty much every player found here in Round One carries great fantasy value, but I especially like the selection of Cano seventh overall. Not many fantasy owners would be so bold, but the Dominican-born second baseman is only getting better and still surrounded by a star-studded lineup in New York.

Head-Scratcher: I thought this might be the year that A-Rod finally drops out of the first round, but that is apparently not going to be the case. It's hard to knock the pick, though. Rodriguez, 36 in July, should do very well again in 2011 as the Yankees look to contend in the ever-tough American League East.

Round Two

2.1 Mark Teixeira
2.2 Roy Halladay
2.3 Adrian Gonzalez
2.4 Josh Hamilton
2.5 Prince Fielder
2.6 Matt Holliday
2.7 Tim Lincecum
2.8 Felix Hernandez
2.9 Ryan Zimmerman
2.10 Joe Mauer
2.11 Dustin Pedroia
2.12 Kevin Youkilis

My Pick: Having the No. 1 pick is nice, but the wait between selecting Pujols and my next turn on the clock was brutal. Youkilis was a nice prize in the end. He is one of the game's best all-around batters and is moving back to third base, where major fantasy production is scarce.

Best Value: As long as his shoulder is recovered from offseason surgery, Gonzalez is going to absolutely rake this year for the Red Sox. He's moving to a much friendlier home ballpark and to a much more productive surrounding lineup.

Head-Scratcher: Holliday went a bit early. He was great last season, registering a .922 OPS and 103 RBI while hitting behind Pujols, but finding 25-homer power in the outfield is never going to be a tough task.

Round Three

3.1 Matt Kemp
3.2 Ryan Howard
3.3 Jose Reyes
3.4 Dan Uggla
3.5 Cliff Lee
3.6 Adam Dunn
3.7 Shin-Soo Choo
3.8 Jose Bautista
3.9 Chase Utley
3.10 Justin Morneau
3.11 Ian Kinsler
3.12 Nelson Cruz

My Pick: With two powerful corner infielders on my roster in Pujols and Youkilis, I decided it was time to grab some speed. Kemp will give me 20-plus stolen bases and will send plenty of balls deep along the way.

Best Value: Call me crazy, but I love the selection of Dunn at 30th overall. He's averaged 40 home runs per season since 2004 and his already impressive RBI totals should rise in the heart of a better lineup in Chicago.

Head-Scratcher: I'm not a believer in Bautista. He may have truly figured some things out with his swing, but he had never topped 16 home runs before last season, when he led the major leagues with 54. Look for some serious regression in 2011.

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Round Four

4.1 Jon Lester
4.2 Buster Posey
4.3 Justin Verlander
4.4 CC Sabathia
4.5 Victor Martinez
4.6 Jason Heyward
4.7 Adrian Beltre
4.8 Andrew McCutchen
4.9 Justin Upton
4. 10 Clayton Kershaw
4.11 Andre Ethier
4.12 Josh Johnson

My Pick: With great power and a decent dose of speed on my roster, I opted to begin rounding out my pitching staff here in Round Four. When Johnson is healthy and pitching at his best there are few better starters in the majors.

Best Value: There's a lot to like about Kershaw. The Dodgers' young lefty fanned 212 batters in 204.1 innings last season against a 2.91 ERA. He pitches in one of the game's more spacious ballparks and he doesn't turn 23 years old until later this month.

Head-Scratcher: Upton shot up draft boards in late spring last season and appears to be making the same move now in 2011. He has great talent, but I'm not sold that he's ready to put it all together. Last year's .799 OPS is scaring me away.

Round Five

5.1 Brian McCann
5.2 Kendrys Morales
5.3 Ubaldo Jimenez
5.4 David Price
5.5 Alex Rios
5.6 Rickie Weeks
5.7 Brandon Phillips
5.8 Shane Victorino
5.9 Hunter Pence
5.10 Jayson Werth
5.11 Paul Konerko
5.12 Jimmy Rollins

My Pick: I tend to think catchers are drafted before where they need to be, but McCann dropped a serious amount of weight this offseason and has slugged at least 21 home runs in each of the last three years. He's a nice option in Round Five.

Best Value: The way Jimenez is being undervalued this year, you'd think he completely folded in the second half of the 2010 season. He struck out 101 batters in 94.2 innings and registered a 3.80 ERA after the All-Star break. That is far from a collapse.

Head-Scratcher: Morales has been hugely productive when healthy, but he's not going to be ready for the start of the regular season and there's no guarantee that his snapped leg will ever be back to normal. Konerko would have been a safer pick than Kendrys.

Round Six

6.1 Jacoby Ellsbury
6.2 Martin Prado
6.3 Michael Young
6.4 Matt Cain
6.5 Ichiro Suzuki
6.6 Alexei Ramirez
6.7 Derek Jeter
6.8 Jay Bruce
6.9 Jered Weaver
6.10 Billy Butler
6.11 Zack Greinke
6.12 Elvis Andrus

My Pick: With an ace and four power hitters already drafted, I decided to scoop up some more base-stealing potential. Andrus swiped 32 bags last season and still scored 88 runs despite an underwhelming .643 OPS. Now 22 years old, he should only get better in 2011 and gives me quality production at a position where it's tough to find reliability.

Best Value: Greinke is going to miss the first couple weeks of the regular season due to a rib fracture, but he should be lights-out once he returns. The 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner is going to love pitching in the National League Central.

Head-Scratcher: Prado is a great hitter and is quickly becoming a clubhouse leader for the Braves, but he's far from a fantasy gem now that Atlanta has opted to move him to the outfield. Batting .300 only means so much in the world of fantasy baseball.

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Round Seven

7.1 Mike Stanton
7.2 Chris Carpenter
7.3 Corey Hart
7.4 Carlos Santana
7.5 Casey McGehee
7.6 Kelly Johnson
7.7 Clay Buchholz
7.8 Yovani Gallardo
7.9 Chris B. Young
7.10 Francisco Liriano
7.11 Mat Latos
7.12 Cole Hamels

My Pick: Stanton is going to rise quickly up draft boards as we move closer to the start of the regular season. He tallied 22 big flies in just 359 at-bats last season and has the ability to top the 40-homer plateau in his sophomore campaign.

Best Value: Santana has played in only 46 major league games and has only six career big league home runs, but the risk should be worth the reward this season. He has massive power potential at a spot where such a thing is hard to find.

Head-Scratcher: Young certainly passes the fantasy eye test with the 27 home runs, 91 RBI and 28 stolen bases that he collected last season, but a .757 career OPS is enough to keep him off my radar. Players with bad plate discipline usually have very inconsistent year-to-year numbers.

Round Eight

8.1 Aramis Ramirez
8.2 Delmon Young
8.3 Starlin Castro
8.4 B.J. Upton
8.5 Brian Wilson
8.6 Dan Haren
8.7 Brian Roberts
8.8 Colby Rasmus
8.9 Nick Swisher
8.10 Drew Stubbs
8.11 Brett Gardner
8.12 Tommy Hanson

My Pick: Feeling good about my offensive core, I decided here in Round Eight to grab another starter. When picking fantasy pitchers, one of the first things I look at is the guy's strikeout rate. Hanson had a 10.7 career K/9 in the minor leagues and fanned 173 batters over 202.2 innings in his first full major league season. He has enormous upside.

Best Value: Haren might have struggled for the first several months of the 2010 season, but he really pulled it together once the Angels traded for him and he's likely to do very well in his first full year out in Anaheim. His strikeout totals are always exceptional.

Head-Scratcher: For a 20-year-old rookie, Castro did a fantastic job last season at shortstop for the Cubs. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Dominican-born youngster had only nine total home runs in his three-plus year minor league career and won't be hitting for power in the big leagues anytime soon. I'd rather have Stephen Drew, who was selected over twenty picks later in this mock draft.

Round Nine

9.1 Neftali Feliz
9.2 Heath Bell
9.3 Carlos Quentin
9.4 Joakim Soria
9.5 Roy Oswalt
9.6 Carlos Marmol
9.7 Tim Hudson
9.8 Torii Hunter
9.9 Grady Sizemore
9.10 Matt Wieters
9.11 Vladimir Guerrero
9.12 Pedro Alvarez

My Pick: The Rangers haven't decided yet whether Feliz is going to be a starter or the team's closer, but I don't care. I'll have him either way. The 22-year-old fireballer has the ability to do major damage in whatever role the Texas coaching staff decides is best for him.

Best Value: I felt the proverbial "parade of closers" arrived a bit too suddenly in this particular draft, but sometimes that's the way it goes. We've all been there. Grabbing Marmol and his unheard of strikeout rate was a good strategy. I would have taken him before Bell, Soria, and maybe even Wilson.

Head-Scratcher: I know he has to be plucked at some point because of the potential he carries, but Round Nine is a little early for Sizemore. Actually, it's crazy early. There's no evidence yet that his knee is fully recovered and that he's the same ballplayer he was at age 25.

Round Ten

10.1 Aubrey Huff
10.2 Stephen Drew
10.3 Max Scherzer
10.4 Gio Gonzalez
10.5 Geovany Soto
10.6 Mark Reynolds
10.7 Curtis Granderson
10.8 Mariano Rivera
10.9 Daniel Hudson
10.10 Gordon Beckham
10.11 Jason Bay
10.12 Mike Napoli

My Pick: Feeling good about my speed potential in Kemp and Andrus, I thought it might be wise to take one more dip into the power pool before things began drying up. Napoli slugged 20 home runs in 114 games in 2009 and 26 homers in 140 games last year while taking half of his at-bats in the Angels' power-draining park. He is going to crush in Arlington, Texas.

Best Value: For a couple of weeks this month, Gonzalez was around in the 15th and 16th rounds of fantasy drafts that we were tracking. The secret must be out because he went here in the 10th. Still, it's a good pick. Gonzalez fanned 171 batters in 200.2 innings last year against a 3.23 ERA and is only getting better with age. Oakland pitchers are always valuable.

Head-Scratcher: Relying on Huff as a first baseman in a mixed fantasy league is not going to work out well. He was great last year, but the guy is 34 years old with a bad body and those power numbers aren't going to get any better than they were in 2010. Dance around sure-to-regress players when possible.

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Round Eleven

11.1 Jonathan Sanchez
11.2 Trevor Cahill
11.3 Nick Markakis
11.4 C.J. Wilson
11.5 Ben Zobrist
11.6 Aaron Hill
11.7 Vernon Wells
11.8 Ervin Santana
11.9 Brandon Morrow
11.10 Josh Beckett
11.11 Jaime Garcia
11.12 Angel Pagan

My Pick: A smooth first 10 rounds left me stocked with serious power and a good amount of speed, so I felt like snagging another high quality arm. Sanchez struck out more than a batter per inning last season and compiled a tasty 3.07 ERA. Something close to that will make him a fantasy ace again in 2011.

Best Value: Almost any fantasy baseball owner you'll ever talk to has a story about how Markakis has burned them in some way, and that's part of why he is falling in drafts this year. The other part, of course, is his lack of production in 2010. The 27-year-old had only 12 homers and 60 RBI when all was said and done, but he's going to be surrounded by a more talented lineup this year and he's capable of a batting line far better than last season's.

Head-Scratcher: Cahill is definitely a useful fantasy starter, but he's not worth a Top 150 selection, let alone a Top 125 selection. His ERA and WHIP will be great all year. The strikeout rate, however, leaves something to be desired.

Round Twelve

12.1 Ricky Nolasco
12.2 Phil Hughes
12.3 Ryan Dempster
12.4 Bobby Abreu
12.5 Jonathan Papelbon
12.6 Adam Jones
12.7 Carlos Lee
12.8 Brett Anderson
12.9 Matt Garza
12.10 Rafael Furcal
12.11 David Ortiz
12.12 Joe Nathan

My Pick: We're all slaves to the save, aren't we? I'm trusting here that Nathan is recovered from Tommy John surgery and the same old closer that was consistently elite through the 2000s. All indications have been good this spring.

Best Value: It's not something that I had in mind or was considering at all before draft season began this year, but I like the idea of taking Big Papi here around the 12th round. If the Boston lineup is going to score the kind of runs they're capable of scoring, Ortiz is going to be a big part of it. Even if his OPS is lacking, the RBI will be there.

Head-Scratcher: Please, avoid El Caballo this year. Yeah, he hit 24 home runs and tallied 89 RBI last year, but it's highly possible that both of those numbers will be on the way down. The Astros are an awful team on paper this season and it's going to be a long haul for the 34-year-old Lee if everything goes as poorly as it can. If he's traded, maybe he could regain some value.

Round Thirteen

13.1 Shaun Marcum
13.2 Chad Billingsley
13.3 John Danks
13.4 Miguel Montero
13.5 Ian Desmond
13.6 Brad Lidge
13.7 Madison Bumgarner
13.8 Carlos Beltran
13.9 Carlos Pena
13.10 Austin Jackson
13.11 Ricky Romero
13.12 Wandy Rodriguez

My Pick: I got a little starter-hungry. It can be dangerous -- keying in on one position while everyone else is rounding out their roster -- but it's obviously far better to have a surplus of starters than it is to have a bunch of extra mediocre outfielders. Marcum should have a fruitful introductory season in the National League Central.

Best Value: It's easy to forget about Montero, the Diamondbacks' young and powerful catcher. Probably because he missed about two months of the 2010 season due to surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his knee. The 27-year-old hit 16 homers in 128 games in 2009, though, and should eclipse 20 dingers in 2011 if his health cooperates. That's big time production at catcher and a nice get here in Round Thirteen.

Head-Scratcher: The pool of fantasy shortstops gets ugly pretty quickly, as witnessed by the selection of Desmond here in the 13th round. He is a nice athlete and surely still developing, but his numbers were generally mediocre in the minors and we're thinking his sophomore season won't go as smoothly as his rookie campaign did.

Round Fourteen

14.1 Andres Torres
14.2 Placido Polanco
14.3 Juan Pierre
14.4 John Axford
14.5 Bronson Arroyo
14.6 Johan Santana
14.7 Adam LaRoche
14.8 Carlos Zambrano
14.9 John Lackey
14.10 Huston Street
14.11 Chone Figgins
14.12 Neil Walker

My Pick: It's easy to write off Walker. He's a 25-year-old infielder for the Pirates and we all know how hugely unproductive the Pittsburgh middle infield has been in recent years. I get the hate, and I don't think Walker is some franchise saver. But his numbers last year at Triple-A were really good and he carried at least some of that momentum with him to the majors. I'm betting he can hit 15 home runs with a .840 OPS.

Best Value: Axford probably would have made a bigger splash on the fantasy baseball scene last year had Trevor Hoffman decided to hang up his cleats after 2009. But Axford waited his turn, let Hoffman reach 600 career saves, then absolutely took off. The right-hander finished with 76 strikeouts in only 58 innings and converted 24 of 27 save opportunities. He has the ninth inning all to himself in 2011.

Head-Scratcher: The owner who selected Santana here in the 14th round must not pay close attention to Rotoworld's player news. There are rumors that the Mets left-hander is going to miss all of the 2011 season, or at least the months of April, May and June. He's not worth drafting when there are still useful starters on the board.

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Round Fifteen

15.1 Jonathan Broxton
15.2 Colby Lewis
15.3 Jeremy Hellickson
15.4 Michael Cuddyer
15.5 Ted Lilly
15.6 Pablo Sandoval
15.7 Chris Perez
15.8 Kurt Suzuki
15.9 Brett Myers
15.10 Raul Ibanez
15.11 Juan Uribe
15.12 Rajai Davis

My Pick: I like having two rock-solid closers in standard mixed leagues and I'm thinking the Rangers may ask Feliz to be a full-time starter this season. So I'll pair Broxton with Nathan and feel good about what should be a strong helping of save chances and converted opportunities all season long.

Best Value: If you feel stuck with a speed deficiency near the end of a fantasy draft, Davis is a pretty good option. He finished third in the majors with 50 stolen bases last season and whatever amount of power he possesses will be boosted by the move to Rogers Centre.

Head-Scratcher: There really wasn't a bad pick in this round. Uribe has good speed, Sandoval has dropped a ton of weight and is worth the risk, and Hellickson is a very promising young starter from a constantly talented Rays farm system. Even Ibanez is passable as a third fantasy outfielder. The names above are all fine roster fillers.

Round Sixteen

16.1 Andrew Bailey
16.2 Chris Johnson
16.3 Jhoulys Chacin
16.4 Alfonso Soriano
16.5 Francisco Cordero
16.6 Jorge Posada
16.7 Jose Valverde
16.8 Russell Martin
16.9 Michael Bourn
16.10 Craig Kimbrel
16.11 Francisco Rodriguez
16.12 Jason Kubel

My Pick: I like to let the dust settle a bit before picking my final outfielder, and I felt pretty good about landing Kubel. Target Field has proven to be a tough park, but the heart of the Twins' lineup is still superb and he'll tally good numbers from week to week. I might have been better off reaching for a better outfielder earlier, but I can make a trade in April if things aren't well-balanced.

Best Value: Posada was a great pick. He should have an easy time staying healthy at designated hitter throughout the 2011 season and he still has enough pop to slug 20-plus homers at the new Yankee Stadium. He'll catch enough to retain eligibility at the position. Kimbrel gets an honorable mention here too. He struck out 40 batters in 20.2 innings last year for the Braves.

Head-Scratcher: Beyond Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence and maybe Brett Myers, there isn't a Houston player that I would recommend drafting this season. Johnson made some noise near the end of 2010, but his highest home run total in the minors was 14 and he did that at Single-A. The power potential is underwhelming.

Round Seventeen

17.1 Javier Vazquez
17.2 John Buck
17.3 Adam Lind
17.4 Edinson Volquez
17.5 Omar Infante
17.6 Joel Hanrahan
17.7 Edwin Jackson
17.8 Howie Kendrick
17.9 James Shields
17.10 Aroldis Chapman
17.11 Domonic Brown
17.12 Frank Francisco

My Pick: Vazquez is a guy that might begin sneaking up fantasy draft boards as the regular season approaches. He was awful last season for the Yankees, but he drew Cy Young Award votes as a National League starter in 2009 and he is now back in the senior circuit. The veteran is a real bounceback candidate and the type of starter I like rolling the dice with.

Best Value: His peripheral numbers aren't great and Chicago's U.S. Cellular Field is not a great place for pitchers of any kind, but Jackson fanned 181 batters in 209.1 innings last season and he'll be in the rotation for an improved White Sox team in 2011. If you can live with the shaky ERA and WHIP numbers, he's worth a try for the high strikeout rate and win potential.

Head-Scratcher: The Phillies have pegged Brown as the eventual replacement for Jayson Werth in right field, but Brown is going to miss the start of the regular season due to a broken hand and I'm not sure his production is going to be all that great once he does finally get going. The 23-year-old struggled mightily in a cup of coffee with the Phillies last year. He wouldn't be the first young outfielder to struggle initially with the leap from Triple-A to the major leagues.

Round Eighteen

18.1 J.P. Arencibia
18.2 Denard Span
18.3 Orlando Hudson
18.4 Carlos Ruiz
18.5 Jordan Zimmermann
18.6 Ike Davis
18.7 Brian Matusz
18.8 Lance Berkman
18.9 Carl Pavano
18.10 Scott Rolen
18.11 Ian Stewart
18.12 J.J. Putz

My Pick: Fine, it's time to stop the denial. My name is Drew Silva and I'm a closer fiend. Putz was excellent last season in a setup role for the White Sox and should be able to revitalize an Arizona bullpen that was downright dreadful in 2010. Dominating one category means a leg up each week, right?

Best Value: There's no doubt that Zimmermann helped propel a few fantasy teams to the playoffs last season with his roller-coaster return from Tommy John surgery. The talented 24-year-old fanned 27 batters in 31 innings and was dominant when all his stuff was working. With an offseason of rest in his rear view and elbow surgery a distant memory, Zimmermann is poised to make a big leap this year for the Nationals.

Head-Scratcher: It's past time to throw the "O-Dog" into the bin of non-fantasy infielders. He just shouldn't be considered in mixed league drafts. The veteran Hudson hit only six home runs last season against a .710 OPS and is moving to a park in San Diego that kills offensive stats.

 

[HacheMan]

Chase Utley Visits Mystery Doc
The news isn't getting better for Chase Utley.

According to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, Utley was joined by Phillies head athletic trainer Scott Sheridan when he visited a "rehabilitation specialist" on Thursday. Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. wouldn't any provide details on who the specialist was or where the specialist was located (a mystery doctor, if you will) but did say that they are trying to "exhaust all ways not to have surgery" as a way to alleviate the chronic patellar tendinitis in Utley's right knee.

Amaro said Utley had made "some small progress" -- similar to what we heard over the weekend -- but not enough to run or even take ground balls. While he's not quite ready to rule the 32-year-old second baseman out for Opening Day, he did acknowledge that it's "doubtful he'll make it."

We've heard some speculation about the Phillies going after Michael Young from Texas, but Amaro has been adamant that he doesn't have any payroll space to work with. Assuming there aren't any last-minute surprises -- and with Amaro, we can't say with 100 percent certainty that something won't happen -- Wilson Valdez will be the second baseman on Opening Day.

I mentioned early last week that Utley had slipped to sixth in my personal rankings for second baseman, behind Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips, Ian Kinsler and Dan Uggla. I'm sticking by that. While we have every reason to believe that he can still be an elite player when he's on the field, we just can't be sure when that will be.

For a more complete look at our second base projections, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. We have nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, depth charts, ADP (average draft position) data and much, much more. It's the best way to cram for draft day.

Desmond Batting Leadoff?

Nationals manager Jim Riggleman raised some eyebrows Thursday night against the Braves when he used Ian Desmond out of the leadoff spot and Rick Ankiel as his No. 2 hitter. We shouldn't assume this is how the Nationals' lineup will look on Opening Day, but when asked who would bat leadoff should somebody other than Nyjer Morgan win the center field job, Riggleman didn't discount Desmond as a possibility.

In short, Desmond isn't an ideal solution here. He has a .309 on-base percentage in the majors and has walked just 33 times over 663 career plate appearances. Only 13 players (with at least 500 plate appearances) have a lower walk rate than Desmond (4.9 percent) over the past two seasons. Ankiel has major holes in his swing that are only getting worse, so I don't need to say much more about why he'd be a poor No. 2 hitter.

I'm not crazy about this idea if the Nationals actually aim to win some ballgames this season, but keeping Desmond in one of the first two spots of the batting order would be just fine with me from a fantasy perspective. 242 of his plate appearances last season were either from the seventh or eighth spot in the batting order, which is a killer. He'd naturally have much more value hitting in front of the likes of Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche.

I'm still holding out out hope that Morgan will keep his job, as he figures to be a better fantasy option than either Ankiel or Roger Bernadina, but it looks like the Nationals have soured on him. Can't blame them there, really. Danny Espinosa, who I mentioned yesterday, is a batting average risk, but it would be interesting to see what he could do out of the leadoff spot. He has at least shown an ability to get on base in the minor leagues. What you just read may be rendered irrelevant if Morgan sticks with the club, but it's something to keep in the back of your mind on draft day.

How Much Will Arencibia Play?

Here's an interesting nugget I noticed yesterday while putting together some blurbs for our player news page. According to Mike Rutsey of the Toronto Sun, Blue Jays manager John Farrell suggested that Jose Molina could be the personal catcher for both Brandon Morrow and Kyle Drabek this season.

Morrow held batters to a .227/.311/.663 batting line last season with Molina behind the plate as opposed to a .315/.413/.508 batting line with John Buck doing the catching. Farrell sees Drabek as having "similar stuff" to Morrow and thinks the rookie right-hander could work well with Molina.

Assuming the Blue Jays implement this plan, that means rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia will start approximately three out of every five games behind the plate, or roughly 97 games for the entire season. We're currently projecting Arencibia to get 377 at-bats in 2011, which sounds about right.

Arencibia, 25, has shown solid power potential in the minor leagues, so he shouldn't go undrafted in AL-only formats, but his approach at the plate leaves a lot to be desired. He'll likely give fantasy owners 15-plus homers, which has value from the catcher position, but just be ready to sacrifice some batting average in the process.

 

[HacheMan]

...

 

[HacheMan]

Brian Wilson Headed to DL?
There's a pretty good chance that nobody will "Fear the Beard" on Opening Day. Or for the first week couple weeks of the season, for that matter.

Brian Wilson underwent an MRI on Saturday which revealed a mild strain of his left oblique muscle. He apparently felt the injury during his most recent appearance Thursday against the Angels.

Wilson insists that he'll be ready for Opening Day, but we should know more about his status after the injury is reassessed on Monday. Oblique injuries aren't anything to mess around with and Wilson was already slightly behind due to a back ailment early on in camp, so don't be surprised if the Giants just play it safe and place him on the disabled list.

Giants manager Bruce Bochy isn't ready to say who would pitch the ninth inning if Wilson is forced to miss some time, but they have no shortage of late-game options, including Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez.

If I had to pick just one option for a fantasy league, it would probably be Romo. And not just because he also has a ridiculous beard. The 28-year-old right-hander posted a 2.18 ERA and 70/14 K/BB ratio over 62 innings last season. That's pretty good.

For a more complete look at our projections for relievers, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. You'll find nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, depth charts, ADP (average draft position) data and much more. I plan to use it for my fantasy drafts this week. Why not you, too?

Peavy Has Setback

Remember all that optimism about Jake Peavy being ready for the start of the season? Yeah, hold off on that. At least for now.

Peavy was diagnosed with rotator cuff tendinitis Sunday, one day after he allowed three runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Athletics. He was given anti-inflammatory medication, but if he can't make his next scheduled start Thursday, we can probably write him off for the start of the season.

The 29-year-old Peavy is currently working back from surgery to repair a detached lat muscle in his shoulder. Peavy said his current rotator cuff issues have nothing to do with the procedure, but admitted that he's been feeling some soreness dating back to his spring debut on March 6.

And so, Peavy just went from potential late-game flier to someone you can avoid in mixed leagues.

If Peavy is sidelined for the early part of the season, look Phil Humber to draw some starts. The former 2004 first-round pick has a 2.45 ERA and 6/1 K/BB ratio over 11 innings this spring, but he shouldn't be on your radar in most fantasy formats.

Concerned About Cueto

The Reds entered spring training with some enviable rotation depth. Turns out they may have to use it earlier than they would have hoped.

Johnny Cueto left his start Saturday against the Rockies after just one inning due to biceps stiffness. This is a troubling development because he was pulled from his previous start on March 11 due to forearm stiffness.

It's natural to start thinking about Tommy John surgery when you hear things like this, but we'll likely have some clarity on the situation after he is checked out by team medical director Tim Kremchek on Monday. Either way, we can probably rule him out of the start of the season.

The Reds had six starters going for five spots this spring. Homer Bailey was a good bet to make the team since he was out of options, but now Travis Wood and Mike Leake are essentially assured of making the Opening Day roster. Both have value, especially if Cueto needs to miss significant time. I like Wood more than Leake, even though he did get a little lucky with the home run ball last season.

Francisco and Dotel Hurting; Rauch To Close?

He might not have been their first option for the job, or even their second, but it looks like Jon Rauch will handle ninth-inning duties when the season begins.

At issue is that Frank Francisco is headed to Dr. James Andrews to receive a second opinion on his sore right pectoral muscle and Octavio Dotel is still trying to work himself back from a right hamstring injury. Dotel is scheduled to appear in a minor league game Tuesday, so he's at least on track to return fairly soon. As for Francisco, he felt discomfort throwing a bullpen session on Saturday. His MRI came back clean Friday, but his status for Opening Day remains in doubt.

Rauch might not keep his value for long, but he's worth grabbing if you can get him on the cheap. The 6-foot-11 right-hander posted a 3.12 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 21 saves in 25 chances with the Twins last season.

Phils Ink Castillo To Minors Deal

Just two days after being released by the Mets, Luis Castillo has agreed to a minor league contract with the Phillies, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. This one isn't all that interesting from a fantasy perspective, but it's indicative of the Phillies' complete lack of middle infield depth behind the injured Chase Utley.

Castillo is clearly on the downside of his career, but still makes good contact and knows how to draw a walk. While his range isn't what it once was, the former Gold Glover knows his way around the second base bag better than most. The contract is non-guaranteed and if he makes the roster, he'll get the league minimum. In short, it's a worthwhile gamble.

Think about it this way. Wilson Valdez -- the current favorite to play second base -- was called a pleasant surprise by many least season, despite posting an awful .306 on-base percentage and a .667 OPS over 363 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Castillo still managed a .337 on-base percentage last year, despite having his worst offensive season since 1998. Expectations aren't very high, but he could be useful for them.

 

[HacheMan]

Plant-my-flag players for 2011

Ten players Jason is targeting in his fantasy drafts and auctions

By Jason Grey

It's harder than ever to find a fantasy bargain these days. With every owner seemingly armed with copious amounts of information, we need to dig a little deeper to find the players who will earn more than their draft-day investment.
So when it comes to this year's plant-my-flag players, they're not only guys I'm targeting, but they're also the fantasy options I feel could offer a little profit potential. So you won't find Evan Longoria or Mike Stanton here, just to name a few. I love them, and one or both of 'em are sure to find their way onto a roster or two of mine. But it most likely would take paying full value to get them.
Just because it's tougher to find plant-my-flag players doesn't mean they aren't there. Here are 10 players, in no particular order, I like just a bit more than conventional wisdom suggests I should. As such, they're on my target list for 2011 drafts:

Brandon Morrow, SP, Toronto Blue Jays


I've always been a big fan of Morrow's arm and raw ability, but it sure seemed that his previous club, the Seattle Mariners, did him no favors with his development by constantly shifting his role from starting to relief and back. As Morrow told me last season, "Consistency is what everyone is looking for and what keeps you here, and it's hard to be consistent when you're consistently changing."

It looks like he finally turned the corner when the Jays told him he would be a starting pitcher and then stuck with it. He began to thrive and pitch with comfort and confidence, aided by an adjustment in his delivery that lowered his release point and allowed him to find more consistency with his mechanics and get better control of his ace-level stuff.
He can still bring that mid-90s gas, but he located his slider better in 2010 while also showing a vastly improved curveball and mixing in his split-change. In other words, he became a more well-rounded hurler and not just a power arm.
He was limited to eight second-half starts to monitor his workload, but he posted a 3.69 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 13 strikeouts per nine innings in those outings, including a 17-K outing. Taken out even further, he posted a 3.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning in his last 101⅓ frames. He's still a bit of a work in progress, but he has the potential to be a top-40 starter this season, and in many leagues he's not being drafted as such, or even in the top 150 overall. Anything $15 or under in standard AL-only auctions and I'm there, and $15 has generally been getting him.

Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles


Like another young southpaw (the Oakland Athletics' Brett Anderson) just a year earlier, it took a while for Matusz to settle in during his first full season in the big leagues in 2010. He was pushed aggressively through the minors and, although it took longer than Anderson, Matusz finally started to get dialed in and figure out how to handle the tough offenses of the AL East as the season wore on. He took a mediocre 4.77 ERA and 1.45 WHIP into the 2010 All-Star break and posted a horrible 8.10 ERA in five July starts, seemingly unable to get over the hump and be the pitcher his four-pitch repertoire suggests he could be.
Over his final 11 starts, though, things started to click. During that time, Matusz posted a 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 52 strikeouts in 62 innings, with seven wins, all while facing just one team that would finish with a record under .500 (the Angels, who finished 80-82). At times, Matusz relied a bit too much on his fastball, especially for someone with his fine secondary stuff, and I expect him to mix it up a bit more this season, with a more consistent changeup helping him perform better against righties.
Some owners will look at Matusz's pedestrian overall numbers (4.30 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) and not give him the attention he deserves. He's not going in the top 200 in many drafts, making him a late-round starting pitcher to target.
Our ESPN Stats & Info group also has some good information that goes deeper into Matusz's numbers.

Mitch Moreland, 1B, Texas Rangers


I first wrote about Moreland when he was in the Arizona Fall League in 2009, and I noted then that you didn't hear a lot about Moreland as a prospect. He came up through the minors in relative obscurity in part because he wasn't a high draft pick and also because many people focused on the things he couldn't do, rather than what he could do: hit big league pitching.
Manager Ron Washington has declared all along that Moreland is the starter at first base, and Moreland has backed up his manager with a big spring. Though he will occasionally sit in favor of Mike Napoli or Michael Young against tougher southpaws, Moreland can hit them if given the chance, and he might get occasional time at his original position, right field, as well when Nelson Cruz needs a rest. I think he'll receive at least 450 at-bats, and can do some damage to the tune of 20-plus homers with a solid batting average in a good lineup for runs and RBI chances.
The stick is for real, and he's a sleeper corner option in mixed leagues this year. In many drafts he's not going in the top 20 among first basemen, but he'll hit like one.

Gordon Beckham, 2B, Chicago White Sox

<CITE>Dennis Wierzbicki/US Presswire</CITE>Gordon Beckham started to pick up his offense before succumbing to a right hand injury in September.



I've already written a little about Beckham this spring, and how I expect a nice bounce-back season, something more like his rookie year than his sophomore campaign. Beckham was just too tentative at the plate last year, which resulted in a breakdown of his swing mechanics. Heading into last season, one of Beckham's positive traits was thought to be his ability to make adjustments in the box as needed, but he didn't show it much in the first half of the season. As of June 23, he was hitting .199.
The adjustments finally showed up right around the All-Star break, and his final numbers likely would have looked a lot better had he not suffered a hand injury that limited him to 32 at-bats in September. Beckham got back to being a bit more assertive and freeing up his hands more with a shorter, smoother bat path, and over his final 57 games he posted a .320 AVG/.386 OBP/.525 SLG stat line. After adding 15 pounds of muscle this offseason and looking very good this spring, Beckham seems poised for a year that should rank him in the top 10 at the second-base position but likely won't require that kind of investment on draft day.

Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays


Technically, Bautista is what you would call a "value" play this season. His presence on this list is more about me making a statement that I buy his 2010 production as legitimate, whereas others don't. Legitimate in the sense that I think he can top 35 homers again.
Bautista made some major changes in his swing in the middle of the 2009 season under hitting coach Dwayne Murphy that started taking hold in September of '09, when he clubbed 10 homers and foreshadowed his monster 2010 season. He became a deadly pull hitter, and started putting the ball in the air much more to take advantage of his raw power.

To complement that, Bautista was willing to take walks when pitchers tried to make him chase, and when pitchers started making their adjustments to this new power threat, he was able to adjust right back, hitting .287 with a .702 slugging percentage in the second half. I think sometimes we can overstate the importance of these things, but I think there's at least some significance to the fact Bautista got even better as the season went along.
No, he's likely not going to put up another 50-homer season, but as unlikely as it may seem, Bautista is a fundamentally changed hitter from the player he was just a couple of seasons ago, and that will result in a solid follow-up season. Eligibility at both third base and in the outfield is merely a bonus.

Daniel Hudson, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks


His 2011 numbers likely won't be as good as they were in his limited exposure last year, but that doesn't mean he won't be a valuable starting pitcher to own. Hudson pitched in five levels in one year to reach the majors in 2009, then took a big step forward with a much-improved changeup last year. Combine that pitch with good fastball command -- he locates the pitch well and gets swings and misses with some deception in his delivery and 94 mph velocity -- and we have a very bright outlook for 2011.
Many scouts originally pegged Hudson as a No. 5 starter, but his improvement last year has most of them talking about him as a No. 3, given that he has a better weapon (his changeup) versus left-handed hitters. This is not a pitcher who's likely to fall on his face with more exposure, but rather a guy with a chance to continue to thrive. It's worth noting that scouts don't like his long arm action, and there are questions about his long-term durability, but that shouldn't be an issue this season. I like a pitcher who can work and get outs just off his fastball when his other stuff isn't working, and Hudson has the capability to do that. His fly-ball tendencies are a bit of a concern, especially in Chase Field, but he can overcome it.
Hudson has gotten some helium in his draft position the past few weeks (perhaps partially because I pushed for a good projection and ranking in our system), but if you own him, I think you'll be pleased with the results.

Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres


Still just 26 when the season opens, Headley hasn't put up his best season yet. Petco Park clearly doesn't help matters, but Headley needs to show he can hit the ball with a little more authority like he's capable of. The switch-hitter struggled against southpaws to the tune of a .302 slugging percentage last season, but some offseason adjustments should help him in that regard. Headley has tended to drift forward when batting on that side of the plate, hindering his ability to drive the ball, but he appears to be doing a better job of staying over his back leg this season.

We often hear, "Player X added this amount of weight this offseason," and most of the time it's just noise, but Headley did add 15-20 pounds of muscle this offseason, and that's at least noteworthy in this case, not just for potential power production but also because he was noticeably worn down by the end of last season, and the extra muscle could help him stay strong in the second half.
Headley's 17 stolen bases provided some value last year, but he's more likely a bet for 10 to 15, given his raw speed. At times, Headley has run into trouble over-thinking things at the plate instead of letting the game come to him and allowing his good swing to do the work. There's still more here than meets the eye, as many scouts think Headley eventually will put together a .300-average, 20-homer season, even with his home park.
However, the key reason I like Headley as a target this season is because of the depth, or rather the relative lack of it, in the third-base pool. I like Headley after the first 15 or so cornermen are off the board, and he should be available in the last few rounds of a mixed draft.

Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Colorado Rockies


Chacin fanned more than a batter per inning in 2010, with a 3.28 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 137⅓ innings. Uh, that'll work. The thing is he's still not completely polished yet. He walked a few too many batters last year, and needs to reduce those to take that next step forward. However, given his ability to repeat his delivery and his track record, I expect him to throw more strikes this season, without losing his ability to miss bats.
His low-90s fastball with sink sets up his breaking stuff and changeup very well, giving him a full repertoire of weapons with plus secondary stuff to work with, and his ground-ball profile doesn't hurt in Coors Field.
The bottom line is this is a pitcher who is usually not being selected among the top 40 starting pitchers that has a chance to be one. With his ADP being in the 17th round in ESPN standard leagues, you have a chance to make a nice score with the 23-year-old right-hander.

Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Washington Nationals


Zimmermann was in the middle of establishing himself in his rookie season in 2009 -- he had 92 strikeouts in 91 innings over his first 16 starts, including a 3-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio -- before Tommy John surgery intervened.
In his brief return to the majors late last season, he showed that the stuff that allowed him to have that early success was back, namely his 92-94 mph fastball, two solid breaking balls and a developing changeup. The early returns suggest that he may avoid some of the control and command issues that plague post-TJ-surgery pitchers upon their return, and his profile of ground balls and strikeouts is one I always like.
Zimmermann is usually still available a good 20 rounds into most ESPN standard drafts. His raw ability and upside is too good to ignore for a starting pitcher available that late.

Mike Aviles, 2B, Kansas City Royals


Aviles' 2010 season started with an early demotion to the minors as he continued to recover his arm strength from 2009 Tommy John surgery, but it finished with him hitting better than .300 at the big league level for the second time in three seasons. He also was 12-for-13 on steal attempts after the All-Star break.
You'd like to see him take a few more walks, but he does make a ton of contact, so it's not really a concern for me. Fundamentally, Aviles is probably not a consistent .300 hitter, but rather someone who can hit in the .280 range with the potential for double-digit numbers in steals and homers. You'll still take that, especially when he's usually not being drafted among the top 20 at the second-base position. In standard AL-only auctions, you can usually get him in the $10-$12 range, and I like him at that price.
Aviles likely will open the season as the Royals' leadoff hitter, and his expected move to third base will give him multiple-position eligibility soon enough. Even with Mike Moustakas coming up later in the season, I don't expect Aviles to be affected much because if he performs as expected, he'll slide over to second again when that happens, with Chris Getz moving to the bench.
Honorable Mention (aka an excuse to squeeze one more in): Logan Morrison, OF, Florida Marlins. The rest of the package is there, and the power's going to come eventually. Will it be this year? I'll take the later-round gamble that some of it does show this season.

 

[HacheMan]

10 players I'm not buying this season

By Jason Grey

In our preseason sleepers and busts column that was published on Feb. 8, I wrote the following about Adam Wainwright:


"The elbow stiffness that sidelined him late last season is enough of an issue for me to not take him among the first half-dozen starters. Given many scouts have long had concerns about his arm action, and the fact he has pitched with a partial tear in the ligament for some time, I will be overly cautious. If that means he won't ever be on my roster, so be it. I think there's a more elevated injury risk here than most think."

Two weeks later, we all know what happened. I had a hunch that turned out to be the right call, but it came from a philosophy of being risk averse, at least when it comes to injuries. I do take my fair share of risks but I tend to do it with younger players with upside rather than with players with injury concerns, unless I really like the price. If I'm taking one of the top five starting pitchers, as Wainwright was projected to be, I want to have minimal health worries, at least as minimal as you can get with a pitcher. Thus, even before the injury, Wainwright would have been on a list of players I would not have bought this year because of what it would have cost to acquire him balanced with what I perceived as too much risk.
That's the key when I talk about players I'm not buying this season. These are not players I'm avoiding completely or not buying under any circumstances. Sometimes you draft a player that you didn't really want, but the potential value was too much to pass up. This list tends to be more about not paying the going rate. They'll likely cost more than I want to invest.


While I do talk about some players with injury concerns, I've tried to avoid some of the more obvious ones such as Chase Utley, Justin Morneau and Andrew Bailey. You don't need me to tell you to be cautious there.


With that in mind, here are 10 players I'm not pursuing this season.

1. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins: This has less to do with Mauer's performance and more to do with my concerns about his ability to continue to stay on the field. I know that seems kind of silly when Mauer has registered 146, 138 and 137 games, respectively, the past three seasons, but it is why he isn't completely worry-free for me. Make no mistake about it, Mauer is one tough hombre. However, many don't realize how much his body already has been through at 27 years old and how much he toughs it out each season to play as many games as he does. Catching 110-plus games a season only exacerbates his existing issues, and his health should be a lingering concern in the back of your mind, given the investment required to secure his services, which is going to be a pick in the first three rounds. Shoulder, foot, knee and hip issues plagued him last season, even though he never required a DL stint, and he had another offseason surgery on his left knee. He already had injections of lubricant in that joint before spring games started, and though it's being downplayed as nothing serious (and I have no reason to doubt that) it's just another thing to add to the list. I fully admit I may be "crying wolf" here, but I do have concerns about his playing in another 130 games.


As far as his performance on the field, there is no question about his ability to hit and post a big batting average. However, according to our Park Factors, Target Field was the toughest home run park in the majors last season, and Mauer hit just one at home last year, negating any chance he would come close to repeating his big homer total of 2009 and limiting his power expectations for this season. We also know there are no steals there. You'll be spending an early pick on a player who doesn't necessarily project to be a multi-dimensional offensive performer.


There is no doubt as to his skills, and as I said he's as tough as they come. If there's any way he can get his name into the lineup, he will. Just know that he's not without risk, and it makes me wary of drafting him within the first 25 picks. If that means I'll own another catcher this season, so be it. I'm OK with that.


2. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs: It's not that I don't like Castro; I do. In November 2009, I said of Castro, "If there's only one name to highlight from the shortstop position, this is it." That said, while I'm a big fan of his potential and upside, we need to remember that Castro, who turns 21 next week, is not a finished project yet. This is not about Castro's talent but about managing expectations. He can hit for average right now, and while he will hit for some pop down the road it's probably not there yet, even after adding a little muscle in the offseason. He has speed, but he's a poor base stealer. Even though he has the tools to be a plus defender, he lacks polish and consistency right now, so defensive struggles in the short term are going to be an issue. In many leagues, you're going to have to draft him in the top 10 among shortstops to get him, and I'm not sure you're going to get that kind of return in production. Castro is going to be a good player for a long time, but he's a little overrated in terms of 2011 impact.


3 Brian Roberts, 2B, Baltimore Orioles: After missing almost two-thirds of last season with back troubles, Roberts continues to have problems this spring. Yes, the price was already going to be reduced on draft day, but he's still going to be a risky play, even in rounds 10-15.


Roberts was at least running again when he returned last season, stealing 12 bags in 59 games, but he wasn't hitting the ball with much authority, and there are some concerns as to how much pop we can expect this season. You aren't drafting Roberts for his power, but if he's not stinging the ball to the gaps consistently it will affect his batting average. Hip and knee injuries also cropped up later in the season to add to his woes. Given he's still having problems, will he still be willing and able to run? Bad backs don't all of a sudden just stay healthy. Ask Joe Crede and Eric Chavez.


4. Bobby Abreu, OF, Los Angeles Angels: Abreu, who just turned 37, has been a model of consistency in his career, with nine 20/20 seasons and 20-plus steals in each of the past 12 seasons. That said, he's coming off a season in which he posted his worst batting average (.255) since becoming a regular in 1998. Although a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .296 (47 points lower than his career mark) played a part in that, don't expect a huge bounce back, as he has opened up his swing more and there's some clear skill decline. Also, this is likely the season that his string of 20-theft seasons gets snapped.


He still possesses a good batting eye, and getting more DH time this season might help him stave off the aging process after playing in 151 or more games for 11 straight years, but Abreu is best used as a potential value play if the price is right, not as a key component of your mixed-league roster. I don't see 20 homers or 20 steals again. Based on ESPN drafts thus far, you're going to have to take him among the top-40 outfielders and in the top 150 overall to get him. It's not that I don't think he's going to be useful or put up some decent numbers again. This is more about me not wanting to pay that prevailing rate for his services.

5. Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Seattle Mariners: The pattern in recent years shows a batting average driven by his luck swings. When he posts a BABIP of .380 and above, he hits .350; when he doesn't, he hits in the .315 range, like last year. His ability to leg out infield hits (he led the majors in that category last season with 59) and bat control keep his batting average floor high. At 37, we have to at least consider that a player whose game revolves around his legs is going to slow down at some point. That the M's are probably going to have some problems driving him home again doesn't help his value, either. I'm not expecting 42 steals again and would treat anything over 30 as a bonus. I'd honestly rather be a year early on the decline than a year late in this case. Considering he's going in the top dozen outfielders and in the top 50 overall, you're making a big bet on an aging player without power.


6. Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox: The 35-year-old turned back the clock a bit in 2010, with a vintage Konerko season after a few down years. However, his BABIP and his homers-per-fly ball rate were above his career marks last year (with his BABIP a career high), indicating a little luck was involved in his average and power numbers. And we can't just dismiss the previous three seasons. I'm not saying Konerko can't post a decent follow-up, but I don't think he tops 30 homers again. The key, as it always is, will be what it costs to acquire him. You don't want to have to pay for 2010's numbers, especially when I think there's some regression coming. It just doesn't seem wise to pay top dollar to a mid-30s slugger coming off his best campaign in five years. First base is a deep position this year, but you'll still need to take Konerko among the top dozen first basemen to get him. I'll pass on Konerko at that price, fill a position elsewhere and grab a different first baseman later in the draft if I have to.


7. Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians: Setting aside his recovery from microfracture surgery on his knee for a second, Sizemore's numbers, especially his batting average, the last couple of seasons had been trending in the wrong direction before he got hurt. He still has troubles with lefties, limiting that batting average upside.


Although he's supposed to make his spring debut shortly, how much is he going to be able to run on that surgically repaired knee? Are we that confident about his ability to post 20 steals, much less the 30-steal seasons of 2007 and 2008? What I'm saying is be careful not to expect too big of a bounce back from Sizemore after three surgeries (knee, abdomen and elbow) in the past two years, and even a 20/20 campaign is not necessarily a given, even if he is ready to play on Opening Day. It depends on how far he slides in your draft. In most drafts, he's going among the top-40 outfielders, which seems a little high for me, and that means I'm probably not going to own him this season.


8. Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston Red Sox: I'm a big Buchholz fan and think his skills haven't peaked yet. He posted shiny WHIP and ERA numbers last year, but his walk rate (3.5 per nine) and strikeout rate (6.2 per nine) were rather pedestrian. His ability to induce ground balls helped him keep the ball in the park enough to limit the damage from contact, and he had some favorable luck on balls in play (.265 BABIP). He'll still be a worthwhile pitcher to own, obviously, and there's still growth potential here, but some are drafting him as an ace based on last year's surface stats, and I'm not sure that's a wise course of action, as those surface stats likely will head in the wrong direction this season. You have to draft him as a top 25 starting pitcher to put him on your roster, and as much as I like him I'm not sure that's what he'll be this season. I want to own him, but at the price he's going for, I'm not going to get him.

9. Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers: Nobody, especially me, questions how much damage Hamilton can do when he's on the field; the only question is how often he's going to be on the field. Just as in past seasons, he showed toughness in playing through a variety of maladies in 2010, finally being shut down in September because of cracked ribs. It's unlikely he'll hit .350-plus again in 2011, but he still should be good for at least .300. But there again, the at-bats are the questionable category with him.


Hamilton admitted in his book that doctors can't really foresee how all the damage that he inflicted on his body before his comeback will affect his ability to stay healthy over the long term, including susceptibility to strains, sprains and things of that nature and the overall chance of his body breaking down. Clearly he's a bit of a wild card, with two seasons of more than 500 at-bats under his belt and two seasons of less than 350. You'll get terrific production when he's in the lineup, but the risk involved means unless he slides to the third round in ESPN standard leagues, or out of the top 20 in other, deeper mixed formats, I'm likely looking elsewhere.


Again, the presence of his name on this list does not mean I'm avoiding him completely. One of the reasons I won my third Tout Wars title last season was gambling on Hamilton at the right price in the mid-teens at the auction, a gamble that paid off. This time I don't think I want to pay the going rate coming off a monster season, as he's the kind of player I want at a discounted price, not at full value.


10. Jonathan Broxton, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers: I tend to look for my saves in the second-tier closers to begin with, but if I was pursuing a top one I'd be hard-pressed to take Broxton among the top-10 closers this season, which is what you'll need to do to add him to your roster. There are still questions he has to answer, and the club has more than one solid option in-house to replace him if need be (Kenley Jansen and Hong-Chih Kuo), meaning he's likely to be on a short leash for a top-10 stopper.

The way Broxton completely collapsed in the second half last year remains a concern. Was there an injury we don't know about that will become more serious this season, even if he insists there wasn't? Did a heavy relief workload at a young age catch up to him? Why did he lose 2 to 3 mph off his fastball? Why did he have a sudden inability to throw strikes? Where did his command go? There are just too many questions for my liking.


Broxton's fastball velocity remains down this spring, and he's had a couple of ugly outings. His radar gun readings haven't been up to speed in past springs, either, so it's not necessarily unusual and it's still mid-March, so he could still just be ramping things up to Opening Day. However, it's a little more troubling in light of his finish to last season. His slider has also not been as crisp this spring as it's been in the past. If you're feeling lucky, draft Broxton high among closers. I'll chase saves elsewhere.

 

[HacheMan]

Invest, or not: Youngsters with upside

Which talented former prospects will break out this season, and which ones won't?


By Jason Grey

The past couple weeks, I've been focusing on prospects, posting my Top 50 on March 2 and Nos. 51-100 on Tuesday. But what about the talented young players who aren't rookies but have yet to truly establish themselves as viable fantasy options?

Is Justin Smoak destined to be a fantasy bust? What about Brett Wallace? How good is Peter Bourjos? Kila Ka'aihue?
You have questions, I have answers … or verdicts, rather. Here are 20 young players with something to prove, and whether or not you should or shouldn't be interested in them this season (with the appropriate context).

Gordon Beckham, 2B, Chicago White Sox




Heading into last season, one of Beckham's positive traits was thought to be his ability to make adjustments (game to game and even at-bat to at-bat) as needed, something he had shown ever since turning pro. It didn't quite work out that way last year. He was seemingly unable to make adjustments for much of the 2010 season, or was making the wrong ones. Regardless, he finally seemed to get dialed in right around the All-Star break, and his final numbers likely would have looked a lot better had he not suffered a hand injury that limited him to 32 at-bats in September. Beckham got back to freeing up his hands more with a shorter, smoother bat path, and over his final 57 games, he posted a .320 AVG/.386 OBP/.525 SLG stat line. After adding 15 pounds of muscle this offseason, Beckham seems poised for a rebound year. Verdict: Should. He should rank among the top dozen second basemen this season.

Cameron Maybin, OF, San Diego Padres



We have to remember that Maybin was pushed very aggressively by the Tigers -- he was in the big leagues at just 20 years old -- and sometimes great athletes need more time than expected to turn athletic tools into actual baseball skills. That said, there are a number of things still working against Maybin, now almost 24. His K rate -- he has struck out in almost a third of his career at-bats in the big leagues -- is one of them, and that rate did not improve last season. Petco Park limiting his power potential is another, not to mention Maybin's ground ball-heavy profile, which further limits his power upside. The one big fantasy factor in his favor is his speed, but he's going to have trouble getting on base. His defense likely will keep him in the lineup, which is a plus, but the offensive package isn't that enticing right now. Verdict: Shouldn't, except in the endgame of NL-only leagues.

Chris Johnson, 3B, Houston Astros



I saw quite a bit of Johnson when he was coming up through the minors, and I never really considered him a top prospect. To his credit, Johnson hit .308 with 11 homers and 52 RBIs in 362 at-bats in the big leagues last season. However, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was very high (.387), showing some luck, and I still saw that tendency to both overswing and lose control of the strike zone. He also struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats, with 91 strikeouts to just 15 walks. He's a dead-red hitter who I believe will have problems with secondary pitches this year. Verdict: Shouldn't, outside of an NL-only league.

Peter Bourjos, OF, Los Angeles Angels



Bourjos' defense rates at least a 70 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, and that can help keep him in the lineup even when his batting average is in the tank, which is likely to happen. He appeared to have trouble recognizing off-speed stuff when I saw him last year. The fact that he could post 20-30 steals is really the only reason you'd be interested in him. Unlike some speedsters, he does have a little pop, but I'm not convinced his bat is ready for prime time yet. Verdict: Shouldn't, at least not in mixed leagues. Cheap speed is cheap speed, so obviously there's AL value here if the price is right, but I don't see him as a big mixed-league factor.

Julio Borbon, OF, Texas Rangers



Borbon flopped in the leadoff role last season, but I expect him to do better this season in the No. 9 spot. Though David Murphy is likely to share playing time with him, the checkered health histories of Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz still give Borbon a chance to post a high number of at-bats. The speedster was a little too passive at the plate last season; he seemed to be more concerned with hitting the ball on the ground to use his speed or trying to draw walks, rather than stroking line drives and/or hitting the ball to the gaps like he's capable of. The early word in Rangers camp is that he's getting back to being more aggressive in the strike zone, which would serve him well. Verdict: Should. AL-only owners especially should find his steals valuable, and at a value price this season. His batting average should be helpful as well.

Danny Valencia, 3B, Minnesota Twins



Valencia will enter 2011 as the Twins' starting third baseman again, but a look at his 2010 splits puts a damper on his potential 2011 output. His OPS against righties (.713) was more than 250 points lower than against southpaws, and his batting average was also driven by a .350 average on balls in play that is not likely to repeat itself. Given his lack of speed and the fact that his raw power doesn't necessarily translate to "game power" because of his hitting style, there's not a lot to get excited about here, other than the fact that he will play and get at-bats. He just doesn't have the upside many people think he has, and he's not among the top 20 third basemen, even though the position is weaker than in past seasons. Verdict: Shouldn't. Even with third base not being deep this season, I don't see Valencia being a factor in mixed leagues.

Brett Wallace, 1B, Houston Astros



Wallace has had issues with his approach at the big league level. He tries to do too much, and overswings (takes too big a cut) at times. But he has a bigger issue, as my colleague Keith Law points out: "The new consensus is that Wallace can't cover the inner half because he doesn't fully rotate his back side through his swing, ceding the inside part of the plate to the pitcher, and that it's not fixable. If anyone can help him, it's new hitting coach Mike Barnett (who was the hitting coach in Toronto while I was in the front office), but the industry has officially jumped off the Wallace bandwagon." I'm not quite ready to write off Wallace completely due to his body type, but there are certainly problems in his approach and swing that argue against a breakout until they are fixed. Verdict: Shouldn't. There are other first basemen to take a chance on late before considering Wallace. He's an endgame play in NL-only leagues, at best.

Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland Indians



I've always been a bit skeptical of Carrasco despite the fact that his raw stuff is big league-quality. He has been viewed as having a whole that is less than the sum of its parts due to his inconsistency, loss of focus at times and pitching "soft," not to mention he has been prone to giving up big innings. However, he seemed to turn the corner in the second half at Triple-A last season, and acquitted himself well in the big leagues over seven late starts, showing command of his secondary pitches, especially his curveball and changeup. He has a starting spot heading into the spring season, and I've come around a bit on this four-pitch righty. Verdict: Should. AL-only players have a definite sleeper, given the skills he has shown to induce grounders and miss bats, and there's a chance he could be useful in deep mixed leagues as well.

Justin Smoak, 1B, Seattle Mariners



Smoak hit .218 with 13 homers in 348 at-bats, but we're also talking about a 23-year-old player with just 625 at-bats in the minors. Simply put, he wasn't sure what to do the first time he experienced failure. It happens. Even given his talent, perhaps we were expecting too much, too soon, and I was as guilty as anyone. This spring, he has been focused on making small mechanical adjustments to help him tap into those talents, trying to prevent old habits of barring his front arm and trapping his hands from the left side, and having a bit too much of a dead hook from the right side. He's not in a favorable park for power, but many owners are jumping off the bandwagon too early here. Verdict: Should. I like him as an endgame play to stash away or take a chance on with your corner infield spot in deep mixed leagues, if you've waited until the end of the draft to fill it. I'd take him over Matt LaPorta or Wallace, just to name two players.

Travis Snider, OF, Toronto Blue Jays



As he continues to learn on the job at the big league level, Snider took some small steps forward last season despite battling a wrist injury for part of it. He put together a strong finish to the season, hitting .304 with six homers in the final month. Snider was tentative at the plate early in the season, which made him vulnerable to good fastballs, and teams found he would chase pitches up in the zone even though he's best as a low-ball hitter. He's still trying to find that balance of being selectively aggressive, but late in the year he started to make more contact and focus more on attacking drivable balls early in the count. Verdict: Should. I think Snider will take a nice step forward this season, although mixed leaguers who play in leagues with daily transactions might still want to sit him against southpaws.

Alexi Casilla, SS/2B, Minnesota Twins



There's more upside in Casilla than what we've seen in his sporadic playing time over the past few seasons, and I expect him to take the full-time (shortstop) job he has been given this year and run with it. His speed and contact skills give him the chance to put up a solid batting average, and regular at-bats should finally allow him to be more consistent and run more on the basepaths (Casilla has gone 35-for-39 on the bases in his big league career). Verdict: Should. Consider him a steals sleeper for this season to stash away on reserve in mixed leagues, especially given his eligibility at both middle infield spots.

Jenrry Mejia, P, New York Mets



Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen told ESPN.com's Adam Rubin that he sees Mejia more as a reliever going forward, though the youngster will work as a starter at Triple-A to maximize his development. Still, we're talking about a pitcher who can throw it in the mid-90s with two promising secondary pitches that can both be above average (especially his changeup, which has split-like action). He needs to show more consistency with those off-speed pitches, and he's still more of a thrower than a pitcher right now, but he's also just 21. And we don't need to label him as a reliever just yet. Verdict: Shouldn't, at least for 2011 purposes. It's not that I don't like Mejia's future. I do. I think if the Mets allowed him proper development time, he could be a good three-pitch starter. However, the team seems to view him as a relief arm for the moment, which doesn't give him much value, and if asked to start right now, I don't think his command would be quite ready, and he would struggle.

Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, Kansas City Royals



Ka'aihue, who will turn 27 at the end of this month, finally gets a chance to show his power and patience with regularity at the big league level. We know he has nothing left to prove in the minors after posting his second 1.000-plus OPS in three seasons there last year. While he has an excellent eye at the plate and big, raw power, I have some concerns about him. He must show his swing isn't too long and his bat speed isn't a touch too slow to consistently handle big league pitching. In 180 at-bats at the major league level last year, he did go deep eight times, but batted just .217. Verdict: Shouldn't. I'm not sure I see any in-between with Ka'aihue: He's going to get exposed as little more than a Triple-A slugger, or he won't. The presence of Eric Hosmer coming up fast in the Royals' system doesn't help, so he needs to start hot and stay hot. I'm not investing too much here, even in AL-only leagues.

Derek Holland, SP, Texas Rangers



Knee and shoulder issues played a part in Holland not taking that step forward last year that was expected, but that step was merely delayed. Holland's changeup has improved, to go along with an already solid fastball/slider combo, and I expect him to start locating that fastball better and throw more strikes as he settles into a starting spot this season. Verdict: Should. I think this is the year the 24-year-old lefty sticks in the rotation and starts making good on his promise and strikeout ability. Consider him a mixed-league sleeper.

Dayan Viciedo, 3B, Chicago White Sox



Viciedo has raw power and a good arm. What he doesn't have is a defensive home or a clue on how to make consistent contact (despite his good numbers early in camp). He has been playing some right field this spring, but his best position, really, is DH. He has problems with good breaking balls right now, and it's compounded by his propensity to swing at everything. He has youth on his side, and when he connects, it goes a long way, but those times will be few and far between. Verdict: Shouldn't. I don't see him as an AL sleeper right now because I don't see the big league impact without some substantial changes in his approach.

Chris Coghlan, OF, Florida Marlins



It was a rough year for Coghlan, even before it ended because of a bizarre ACL tear while delivering a shaving cream pie to Wes Helms. But he's still a quality hitter who can do a bit of everything when healthy, and I like his feel for his ability to square up the ball. I just think he was trying to do too much to live up to his rookie season last year, overswinging and trying too hard to hit for power. The fundamental skills are still intact. Verdict: Should, though there's some risk of him losing playing time if he can't handle center field defensively, which is entirely possible considering he is recovering from knee surgery. But there could be decent value here for NL-only or deep-mixed owners.

Jake Arrieta, SP, Baltimore Orioles



Arrieta had some predictable struggles with command and location in his first exposure to the big leagues last season. Also, he was shut down in September due to a bone spur in his elbow. While there are some reasons for optimism regarding the 25-year-old -- both his breaking balls have potential -- he has problems locating his fastball and throwing strikes in general, and still lacks a put-away pitch. There's still long-term potential here, but the growth is coming slowly, perhaps too slowly for him to make an impact in 2011. Verdict: Shouldn't, unless you're taking a flier on him in the endgame of AL leagues. Arrieta has been a popular sleeper pick in deep leagues this spring, especially since it seems he has a rotation spot to himself. But the O's do have other options, and given that he still lacks polish, Arrieta could pitch himself right out of that job in a tough, unforgiving division. I don't want to invest too much here, even in single-league formats.

Alex Sanabia, SP, Florida Marlins



On the surface, a 3.73 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 15 games (12 starts) in the 22-year-old's big league debut would seem to point to bigger things to come, but Sanabia is a changeup artist who has little margin for error, especially given his below-average breaking ball. He also doesn't miss enough bats to work himself out of trouble, though he did manage to get by last year. Verdict: Shouldn't. Sure, he probably makes for a decent reserve pick in NL-only leagues, but there's no room for him in the Marlins' rotation, so he'll likely begin the year at Triple-A. There's more downside than upside here, making him less of a sleeper play than you might realize.

Andrew Cashner, P, Chicago Cubs



It appears this hard-throwing right-hander has the inside track on a starting job this spring, but his problems finding the strike zone are not likely to be helped by a move to the rotation. As good as his high-90s fastball and slider are, his changeup is below average, and he's going to have problems getting left-handed hitters out, especially as he goes through the order a second or third time. Pure velocity can cover up for a lot of things in the bullpen, but starting is another matter. Verdict: Shouldn't. I'm not buying Cashner as a starter at this point of his career, not without a third pitch, and not with control issues. I like his arm, and I'm not saying the Cubs shouldn't be trying to develop him as a starter; I just question his ability to have consistent success as one in 2011.

Kyle Blanks, OF/1B, San Diego Padres



I can deal with a high strikeout rate from a hitter if balls leave the yard on a regular basis and the player has shown some clue about how to be selective at the plate. Even with the vast dimensions of Petco Park, Blanks' power potential is intriguing. Yes, he will post big whiff totals, but Blanks has worked to cut down his swing without sacrificing his pop, letting his 6-foot-6 frame and raw strength do the work, and he has also shown some signs of a good eye. Tommy John surgery derailed his season last year, and he's not expected to be ready at the start of this season. But when healthy, he could work his way into the first-base mix, perhaps as part of a platoon with Brad Hawpe, if he can continue to improve his contact ability. He's also likely to be eligible at two positions before too long, which gives him roster flexibility. Verdict: Should. I'd stash him away in NL-only leagues. Hawpe's ability to stick as the first baseman is uncertain, and prospect Anthony Rizzo might not be ready to contribute anytime soon, giving Blanks a window of opportunity and making him a sleeper if you're looking for cheap pop.

 

[HacheMan]

Brett Gardner Leading Off?
The Yankees might actually do this.

For the third time in four Grapefruit League games together, Brett Gardner batted leadoff and Derek Jeter was bumped down to the second spot in the order for Monday's game against the Rays. This story will probably get more attention in the papers and on talk radio because of who is batting No. 2, but fantasy players should be much more excited about what this could mean for Brett Gardner.

In short, it could mean an extra 70 at-bats for Gardner during the season, which would increase his chances for stolen bases and runs scored. Think about it. Gardner had a total of 332 plate appearances from either the eighth or ninth spot in the lineup last season and he still finished with 97 runs scored and 47 stolen bases. Jeter scored only 14 more runs than Gardner last season, despite leading the league with 739 plate appearances. Imagine if Gardner's .382 on-base percentage was coming out of the leadoff spot last season, as opposed to Jeter's .340 on-base percentage?

I'm still skeptical about whether this will happen, but if it does, Gardner has a legitimate chance to be a top-20 outfielder in mixed formats. Jeter's fantasy value wouldn't change all that much here and while Nick Swisher would likely be bumped down the lineup in this scenario, he'd still have plenty of chances to drive in runs. I mean, really, it's tough to lose much value in this lineup.

Yankees manager Joe Girardi said he won't make a final decision until next week, but this is something fantasy owners should keep in the back of their minds on draft day.

For a more complete look at our outfielder projections, check out out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. It's packed with nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, depth charts, ADP (average draft position) data and much, much more. It's the ideal way to set yourself up for a successful season.

Astros Choose Figueroa Over Lyles

In a decision that wasn't completely unforeseen, the Astros sent 20-year-old Jordan Lyles to the minors on Monday, awarding the final spot in the starting rotation to Nelson Figueroa.

Lyles was plenty impressive during exhibition action, posting a 1.98 ERA and 9/2 K/BB ratio over 13 2/3 innings, but it's in the best interests of the franchise to delay his service clock for a couple months. Besides, Figueroa posted a 3.29 ERA and 73/34 K/BB ratio over 93 innings last season, so even if he's unlikely to repeat those numbers, he should be able to hold down the fifth spot in the starting rotation just fine.

Lyles is definitely someone to keep an eye on, though. The young right-hander struggled a bit following a late-season promotion to Triple-A Round Rock last season, but compiled a 3.12 ERA and 115/35 K/BB ratio over 127 innings with Double-A Corpus Christi. If all goes well, we'll probably see him sometime around Memorial day.

Cueto Update

On Monday, I mentioned that Johnny Cueto was going to be examined by team medical director Tim Kremcheck after recent symptoms of biceps and forearm stiffness.

Well, he received a somewhat surprising diagnosis.

Cueto underwent MRIs on both his shoulder and elbow, after which he was diagnosed with shoulder inflammation. Everything checked out OK structurally, which is good news, but he will be shut down from throwing for approximately seven to 10 days.

This obviously takes him out of the mix for the start of the season, which virtually assures Travis Wood and Mike Leake of spots in the starting rotation. My bet is that Wood will stick around once Cueto is back to full health.

Beltran Making Progress?

He's still very doubtful for the start of the season, but Carlos Beltran took limited batting practice for both sides of the plate Monday. The Mets hope he'll be able to take some swings as the designated hitter in a minor league game on Tuesday, but they'll wait to see how he feels once he arrives to camp in the morning.

Steve Popper of the Bergen Record wrote on Monday that the Mets have Beltran penciled in for three games this spring, but as I said over on HardballTalk, I'd be very surprised if any of them were on the Grapefruit League side. If the Mets keep him exclusively in minor league games, they could backdate a potential DL-stint and have him back for the second series of the season.

Of course, this is assuming a lot, namely that he could actually be ready to play that soon. Keep in mind, Beltran hasn't played a single game in right field yet.

Beltran is sinking like a stone in most mock drafts, and for good reason. His upside remains high from an offensive perspective, but there are simply better bets to be found for your outfield. Consider him a late-round flier in mixed leagues, nothing more.

 

[HacheMan]

Keeping An Eye On Rajai
Final roster cuts are now being considered around parks in Arizona and Florida, and starting pitchers are being lined up for scheduled regular season outings. The baseball season, for us here at Rotoworld anyway, is in full swing.

Looking for some last-minute help before draft day? Rotoworld's Online Baseball Draft Guide can help. In it you'll find nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, customizable scoring features and more. There's nothing like it on the market and nothing better to have at your side when the clock is ticking and your fellow draftees are clamoring for their turn.

We also analyzed a fresh fantasy mock draft last week that should give fantasy owners an idea of how players are rising and falling here in late March.

Braves Going With Beachy

The Royals own baseball's best farm system and should begin seeing results from some of their youngsters by the end of 2011, but it would be unfair to overlook the kind of organization-wide pitching depth that the Braves can boast.

That depth was made apparent this spring when two worthy young starting pitchers -- Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor -- were pitted against each other in a competition for the final spot in the Atlanta starting rotation.

Minor, 23, registered 146 strikeouts in 120 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season before the Braves called him up and gave him a look in the major league rotation. He was knocked around in a few starts, but he still finished with a strong 46/11 K/BB ratio over his first 40.2 innings of big league ball. That's a serious debut stat line. And yet, the Braves have the luxury of sending Minor back to the farm this April to get some more marinating at Triple-A because Beachy simply beat him out in Grapefruit League play.

Beachy, 24, posted a sparkling 1.73 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A last year and finished strong with 15 strikeouts in 15 innings when called to the majors in late September. He's a serious fantasy sleeper.

Francisco Pays A Visit To Dr. Andrews

The Blue Jays acquired Frank Francisco from the Rangers this winter with the idea that he might be able to bring a strong veteran presence to their murky ninth inning situation, so it came as frightening news when the right-hander began feeling discomfort in his pectoral muscle last week and scheduled a meeting with Dr. James Andrews.

Toronto got mostly good news and some bad news from that visit.

Francisco has no structural damage in his pectoral, shoulder, back or elbow, but it was recommended that he begins the year on the 15-day disabled list just to be safe.

That leaves fantasy owners with a nice opportunity for some early-season vulture saves. With Octavio Dotel fighting a hamstring injury, Jon Rauch looks to be Francisco's likeliest replacement. The big man finished games in Joe Nathan's absence last year for Minnesota and should be able to lock a few saves down for the Jays this April.

Rajai Getting Some Fantasy Love?

Drafting at least some amount of speed is crucial. It's why otherwise mediocre players like Michael Bourn and Juan Pierre populate fantasy draft boards on a yearly basis.

This season, Davis might be the best option for stolen base seekers. Blue Jays manager John Farrell told reporters Tuesday in spring camp that he plans to use the former Oakland outfielder as his regular leadoff man throughout the 2011 campaign, against both right-handed and left-handed opposing starters.

Davis doesn't have a great history of high on-base percentages, but he swiped 50 bags in 61 chances last season for the Athletics and the Jays should give him a green light on most nights. Batting atop a lineup that flashed really good power numbers last year, he also has the potential to rack up runs in bunches.

There are worse ways to spend a mid-round draft pick. He should be a solid third fantasy outfielder.

Grandy Hurting

Yankees outfielder Curtis Granderson was diagnosed Tuesday with a strained right oblique.

It's the type of injury that can keep a player sidelined for up to a month, but the dynamic Granderson has played down the severity and is still aiming to be ready for the start of the regular season. The Yankees are expected to provide an update on his status at some point Wednesday afternoon.