AFL MLB-Ready Prospect Roundup
Just a few days after the major league season ends, a select group of prospects, managers, scouts and media turn around and start all over again in Arizona. They're not there for some sort of early-early spring training, which might stretch the baseball season into absurdity. Instead, the Arizona Fall League provides top young players with one last chance to impress - and baseball addicts with one last chance to see live baseball before the long winter hot stove months.
Typically, teams send some of their best position prospects to the AFL. Good pitchers come, too, but with young arms so protected these days, it's usually pitchers that didn't rack up big innings totals during the regular season.
Among the position players, the AFL is often populated with players that are on the cusp of joining the major league. Just look at last year's crop, which featured Rookie of the Year Buster Posey along with such young luminaries as Domonic Brown, Starlin Castro, Ike Davis, and Jose Tabata. Pitchers included Stephen Strasburg, Mike Leake, Mike Minor, and Drew Storen - all recent draftees that wanted to prove their mettle and augment their innings totals.
Of course, this year's crop includes players that are ready to contribute right away and those, like Bryce Harper, that have high ceilings but are a little further away. So let's start a two-part series on AFL prospects that should help fantasy players differentiate between those guys that will help in 2011 and those to file for the future.
Ready for 2011
Brandon Belt 1B/OF, Giants
Belt is by far the best combination of high ceiling and readiness for the major leagues. Coming out of college as a pitcher that could hit pretty well, the Giants changed his batting stance - widening his base and quieting his hands - and he's been nothing short of spectacular since. Last year, he played (and played well) everywhere from Single-A to Triple-A. Though he stumbled a little in Triple-A, he still showed great power (.563 SLG) and got on base (.393 OBP). The average batting line at the AFL is skewed towards hitters, but Belt's .392/.449/.658 line is great even in the thin desert air. The best news is that Belt looks athletic enough to play the outfield for a few years, so he should be in San Francisco no matter what happens with Aubrey Huff. He's a great late-round flier or early keeper selection.
Dustin Ackley, 2B, Mariners
The only thing that might keep Ackley from joining the Mariners coming out of spring training next year is his defense. The team shifted him to second base, perhaps because his power wouldn't play at first base or in the corner outfield, and asked him to work on the defense and his aggressiveness on the basepaths. Reviews of his glove have been mixed, and he's only stolen four bases, but the rest of the package looks ready to go. He's walked 23 times against only nine strikeouts, and is .426/.576/.754 line is fierce. In fact, he leads the fall league in OPS. He doesn't have a ton of power or speed, but with Jose Lopez leaving town, there's an opening for him on the Mariner infield and he's a decent sleeper at a tough position.
Ben Revere, OF, Twins
Revere only had 406 plate appearances at the Double-A level before he was called up to the big leagues last year. Perhaps because he struggled at the big-league level (.179/.233/.179 in 30 PAs), the team sent him to the AFL so he could regain confidence and show the Twins that he was still ready to rejoin the majors in 2011. Down in the AFL, he's shown great defense (a wall-slamming catch in the AFL Rising Stars game for one), the ability to get on base (.317/.378/.358), and great speed on the basepaths (12 SBS, 0 CS). That's about what one could expect from him if the major league team moves some pieces around to make space. With Denard Span's defense only about average in center, it's certainly possible that Revere will make a great speed sleeper late in 2011 drafts.
Trayvon Robinson, OF, Dodgers
Robinson is a toolsy outfielder that came to switch-hitting in the minor leagues, so his athleticism is a little ahead of his baseball skills for now. He's at the AFL for the second straight season as the team hopes to get him all the at-bats he can handle. He's obviously got speed, and in recent years he's shown better ability to take a walk. With Matt Kemp and his defense the subject of scorn in Los Angeles, it's possible that he moves Kemp to the open left-field spot and plays center field for a few seasons. He may not be long for that position, but can play it for now as his speed helps cover mistakes. Strikeouts are his bugaboo, and he's struck out in almost a third of his at-bats in the AFL. On the other hand, his .389 OBP and 22 steals in Arizona show his upside despite the flaws.
Marc Rzepczynski, SP, Blue Jays
Scrabble has had a strong AFL, giving up only three runs (two earned) in 26 innings. His 20 strikeouts in those innings are a little less exciting, but he's always been more of a groundballer than a strikeout guy. He's walking less than three per nine, and that's the best sign that he's regained control. There are a lot of candidates for the Jays rotation, but Rzepczynski is interesting in the last rounds of most drafts.
Kam Mickolio, RP, Orioles
The Orioles are currently without their closer from last year (Koji Uehara), but they still own their supposed closer (Mike Gonzalez). It may take a few spills and strains for Mickolio to garner saves next year, but last year's Orioles should provide the blueprint. Mickolio has struck out double-digit batters per nine since 2008, and though his season last year wasn't so great, he's showing something in the AFL. Against great opposition, he's struck out 18 and walked a mere two in twelve innings. That'll get noticed and that'll get him on the team, but in order for him to get saves he'll need some help.
Leslie Anderson, 1B, Rays
It's funny to say that a first baseman with a .677 OPS in the Arizona Fall League is probably ready to play in the major leagues, but the Cuban-born Anderson is at least 28 years old, and it's funny to say anything about man named Leslie. Anderson may be ready for the bigs, but his upside is severely limited by his lack of power. Though he won the Rising Stars game with a walk-off home run, he only has two home runs in the AFL (and a .382 SLG). The Rays need help at first and DH, so he might get a shot, but there's little reason for a ton of hope
Just a few days after the major league season ends, a select group of prospects, managers, scouts and media turn around and start all over again in Arizona. They're not there for some sort of early-early spring training, which might stretch the baseball season into absurdity. Instead, the Arizona Fall League provides top young players with one last chance to impress - and baseball addicts with one last chance to see live baseball before the long winter hot stove months.
Typically, teams send some of their best position prospects to the AFL. Good pitchers come, too, but with young arms so protected these days, it's usually pitchers that didn't rack up big innings totals during the regular season.
Among the position players, the AFL is often populated with players that are on the cusp of joining the major league. Just look at last year's crop, which featured Rookie of the Year Buster Posey along with such young luminaries as Domonic Brown, Starlin Castro, Ike Davis, and Jose Tabata. Pitchers included Stephen Strasburg, Mike Leake, Mike Minor, and Drew Storen - all recent draftees that wanted to prove their mettle and augment their innings totals.
Of course, this year's crop includes players that are ready to contribute right away and those, like Bryce Harper, that have high ceilings but are a little further away. So let's start a two-part series on AFL prospects that should help fantasy players differentiate between those guys that will help in 2011 and those to file for the future.
Ready for 2011
Brandon Belt 1B/OF, Giants
Belt is by far the best combination of high ceiling and readiness for the major leagues. Coming out of college as a pitcher that could hit pretty well, the Giants changed his batting stance - widening his base and quieting his hands - and he's been nothing short of spectacular since. Last year, he played (and played well) everywhere from Single-A to Triple-A. Though he stumbled a little in Triple-A, he still showed great power (.563 SLG) and got on base (.393 OBP). The average batting line at the AFL is skewed towards hitters, but Belt's .392/.449/.658 line is great even in the thin desert air. The best news is that Belt looks athletic enough to play the outfield for a few years, so he should be in San Francisco no matter what happens with Aubrey Huff. He's a great late-round flier or early keeper selection.
Dustin Ackley, 2B, Mariners
The only thing that might keep Ackley from joining the Mariners coming out of spring training next year is his defense. The team shifted him to second base, perhaps because his power wouldn't play at first base or in the corner outfield, and asked him to work on the defense and his aggressiveness on the basepaths. Reviews of his glove have been mixed, and he's only stolen four bases, but the rest of the package looks ready to go. He's walked 23 times against only nine strikeouts, and is .426/.576/.754 line is fierce. In fact, he leads the fall league in OPS. He doesn't have a ton of power or speed, but with Jose Lopez leaving town, there's an opening for him on the Mariner infield and he's a decent sleeper at a tough position.
Ben Revere, OF, Twins
Revere only had 406 plate appearances at the Double-A level before he was called up to the big leagues last year. Perhaps because he struggled at the big-league level (.179/.233/.179 in 30 PAs), the team sent him to the AFL so he could regain confidence and show the Twins that he was still ready to rejoin the majors in 2011. Down in the AFL, he's shown great defense (a wall-slamming catch in the AFL Rising Stars game for one), the ability to get on base (.317/.378/.358), and great speed on the basepaths (12 SBS, 0 CS). That's about what one could expect from him if the major league team moves some pieces around to make space. With Denard Span's defense only about average in center, it's certainly possible that Revere will make a great speed sleeper late in 2011 drafts.
Trayvon Robinson, OF, Dodgers
Robinson is a toolsy outfielder that came to switch-hitting in the minor leagues, so his athleticism is a little ahead of his baseball skills for now. He's at the AFL for the second straight season as the team hopes to get him all the at-bats he can handle. He's obviously got speed, and in recent years he's shown better ability to take a walk. With Matt Kemp and his defense the subject of scorn in Los Angeles, it's possible that he moves Kemp to the open left-field spot and plays center field for a few seasons. He may not be long for that position, but can play it for now as his speed helps cover mistakes. Strikeouts are his bugaboo, and he's struck out in almost a third of his at-bats in the AFL. On the other hand, his .389 OBP and 22 steals in Arizona show his upside despite the flaws.
Marc Rzepczynski, SP, Blue Jays
Scrabble has had a strong AFL, giving up only three runs (two earned) in 26 innings. His 20 strikeouts in those innings are a little less exciting, but he's always been more of a groundballer than a strikeout guy. He's walking less than three per nine, and that's the best sign that he's regained control. There are a lot of candidates for the Jays rotation, but Rzepczynski is interesting in the last rounds of most drafts.
Kam Mickolio, RP, Orioles
The Orioles are currently without their closer from last year (Koji Uehara), but they still own their supposed closer (Mike Gonzalez). It may take a few spills and strains for Mickolio to garner saves next year, but last year's Orioles should provide the blueprint. Mickolio has struck out double-digit batters per nine since 2008, and though his season last year wasn't so great, he's showing something in the AFL. Against great opposition, he's struck out 18 and walked a mere two in twelve innings. That'll get noticed and that'll get him on the team, but in order for him to get saves he'll need some help.
Leslie Anderson, 1B, Rays
It's funny to say that a first baseman with a .677 OPS in the Arizona Fall League is probably ready to play in the major leagues, but the Cuban-born Anderson is at least 28 years old, and it's funny to say anything about man named Leslie. Anderson may be ready for the bigs, but his upside is severely limited by his lack of power. Though he won the Rising Stars game with a walk-off home run, he only has two home runs in the AFL (and a .382 SLG). The Rays need help at first and DH, so he might get a shot, but there's little reason for a ton of hope