MLB 2025 BEST BETS- NEWS THRU THE WORLD SERIES !

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C. notes and Udog....thank you both for all your
time and thought's this past season......indy
 

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MLB BEST BETS FOR SEPT !

09/28/2025..............13 - 8 - 0..................61.90%.....................+ 24.00
09/27/2025..............11 - 7 - 0.................61.11%....................+ 16.25
09/26/2025..............8 - 12 - 1.................40.00%....................- 20.50
09/25/2025.............4 - 12 - 0..................25.00%....................- 45.50
09/24/2025.............8 - 10 - 1..................44.44%....................- 13.00
09/23/2025.............14 - 4 - 1..................77.77%.....................+ 54.50
09/22/2025..............4 - 2 - 0...................66.66%......................+ 7.50
09/21/2025...........11 - 11 - 0.................50.00%......................+ 8.75
09/20/2025...........10 - 11 - 0.................47.61%.......................+ 3.75
09/19/2025.............5 - 12 - 0..................29.41%.......................- 49.75
09/18/2025..............8 - 7 - 0....................53.33%.....................+ 7.95
09/17/2025............9 - 13 - 0.....................40.90%.....................- 22.75
09/16/2025..........13 - 11 - 0....................54.16%.....................+ 10.90
09/15/2025.............3 - 5 - 0.....................37.50%.....................- 5.85
09/14/2025............9 - 11 - 0...................45.00%.....................- 11.85
09/13/2025.............6 - 9 - 0....................40.00%....................- 11.00
09/12/2025..............9 - 5 - 0....................64.28%....................+ 16.65
09/11/2025.............4 - 10 - 0...................28.57%....................- 30.90
09/10/2025...............9 - 5 - 0...................64.28%....................+ 26.70
09/09/2025...............6 - 8 - 0...................42.85%....................- 3.80
09/08/2025...............7 - 4 - 0...................63.63%....................+ 17.05
09/07/2025...............6 - 6 - 0...................50.00%....................+ 7.10
09/06/2025.............10 - 7 - 1..................58.82%....................+ 23.65
09/05/2025...............6 - 7 - 1..................46.15%.....................- 8.40
09/04/2025...............3 - 4 - 0..................42.85%.....................- 4.35


TOTALS..............192 - 189 - 3..................50.39%.....................- 49.15
 

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2025 MLB playoff bracket: Postseason picture, matchups as Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Phillies, more advance

The 12 postseason teams are set and the playoffs get underway Tuesday

bracket.png
Keytron Jordan, CBS Sports
The 2025 MLB playoff bracket is set. After a harried end to September, all 12 postseason teams have their assignments.
In the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays held on to take the AL East title, the No. 1 seed and the first bye, while the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, their division rivals, took two of the three wild card spots and will square off against each other. The Detroit Tigers narrowly clung to their lead in the AL Central and will face off against the Cleveland Guardians, who lost out on the division on the last day but earned the third wild card berth. The Seattle Mariners, thanks to a late surge, claimed the second bye in the AL and will await their opponent in the American League Division Series.
In the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies glided to easy byes after taking the NL Central and NL East, respectively. The No. 3-seeded Los Angeles Dodgers held off the San Diego Padres in the NL West and will face the Cincinnati Reds, owners of the third wild card spot. The Chicago Cubs will take on the aforementioned Padres in the other Wild Card Series.
Below is a look at the full 2025 MLB playoff bracket.

2025 MLB playoff bracket

bracket.png

Keytron Jordan, CBS Sports

2025 MLB playoff scores

All times Eastern
*if needed

Wild Card Series

Tuesday, Sept. 30
AL Wild Card Series Game 1: Tigers @ Guardians, 1:08 p.m., ESPN
NL Wild Card Series Game 1: Padres @ Cubs, 3:08 p.m., ABC
AL Wild Card Series Game 1: Red Sox @ Yankees, 6:08 p.m., ESPN
NL Wild Card Series Game 1: Reds @ Dodgers, 9:08 p.m., ESPN

Wednesday, Oct. 1
AL Wild Card Series Game 2: Tigers @ Guardians, 1:08 p.m., ESPN
NL Wild Card Series Game 2: Padres @ Cubs, 3:08 p.m., ABC
AL Wild Card Series Game 2: Red Sox @ Yankees, 6:08 p.m., ESPN
NL Wild Card Series Game 2: Reds @ Dodgers, 9:08 p.m., ESPN

Thursday, Oct. 2
AL Wild Card Series Game 3*
NL Wild Card Series Game 3*
AL Wild Card Series Game 3*
NL Wild Card Series Game 3*

Division Series

Saturday, Oct. 4
NLDS Game 1
NLDS Game 1
ALDS Game 1
ALDS Game 1

Sunday, Oct. 5
ALDS Game 2
ALDS Game 2

Monday, Oct. 6
NLDS Game 2
NLDS Game 2

Tuesday, Oct. 7
ALDS Game 3
ALDS Game 3

Wednesday, Oct. 8
NLDS Game 3
NLDS Game 3
ALDS Game 4*
ALDS Game 4*

Thursday, Oct. 9
NLDS Game 4*
NLDS Game 4*

Friday, Oct. 10
ALDS Game 5*
ALDS Game 5*

Saturday, Oct. 11
NLDS Game 5*
NLDS Game 5*

Championship Series

Sunday, Oct. 12
ALCS Game 1

Monday, Oct. 13
NLCS Game 1
ALCS Game 2

Tuesday, Oct. 14
NLCS Game 2

Wednesday, Oct. 15
ALCS Game 3

Thursday, Oct. 16
NLCS Game 3
ALCS Game 4

Friday, Oct. 17
NLCS Game 4
ALCS Game 5*

Saturday, Oct. 18
NLCS Game 5*

Sunday, Oct. 19
ALCS Game 6*

Monday, Oct. 20
NLCS Game 6*
ALCS Game 7*

Tuesday, Oct. 21
NLCS Game 7*

World Series

Friday, Oct. 24
World Series Game 1

Saturday, Oct. 25
World Series Game 2

Monday, Oct. 27
World Series Game 3

Tuesday, Oct. 28
World Series Game 4

Wednesday, Oct. 29
World Series Game 5*

Friday, Oct. 31
World Series Game 6*
 

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Monday’s 6-pack:
— Marlins 4, Mets 0- Cincinnati clinches NL’s last Wild Card slot
— Blue Jays 13, Rays 4- Toronto clinches AL East
— Guardians 9, Rangers 8 (10)- Cleveland wins AL Central
— White Sox 8, Nationals 0- Shane Smith took perfect game into 6th inning

Wild Card series, starting Tuesday:
— AL: Tigers @ Guardians, Boston @ New York
— NL: Padres @ Cubs, Reds @ Dodgers

Quote of the Day
“It’s hard to describe. I just got done addressing the team and there’s no word to describe what we’re going through. It’s pain. It’s frustration. You name it. We came in with a lot of expectations and here we are going home. Not only did we fall short, we didn’t even get into October.”
Mets’ manager Carlos Mendoza

Monday’s quiz
Where did Matthew Stafford play his college football?

Sunday’s quiz
Milwaukee Brewers have played in one World Series; it against the Cardinals, in 1982.

Saturday’s quiz
In the history of the Rams, Jim Everett has thrown for the most yards.

***********************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Packers 40, Cowboys 40 OT
Green Bay led 13-0; PAT after 2nd TD was blocked, run back for 2 points.
Packers in 2nd half/OT: 47 plays, 329 yards, 27 points
Green Bay was 10-14 on third down, Dallas 4-11.
Packers are 4-12-1 ATS last 17 games as a road favorite.
Dallas won its first home game 40-37 in OT, then this happened.
Last three games, Cowboys allowed 506-385-489 total yards.
First three Dallas drives: 11 plays, 35 yards, 3 punts
Last seven Dallas drives: 57 plays, 406 yards, 38 points

Jaguars 26, 49ers 21
Jaguars are 3-1 for the second time in the last 18 years.
Jaguars have 13 takeaways already, are +9 in turnovers.
Jaguars ran punt back 87 yards for TD to grab a 26-14 lead.
Jacksonville held last three opponents to 48-87-83 rushing yards.
49ers turned ball over on two of first three series.
49ers were 8-13 on third down, Jacksonville 4-14
49ers had 12 penalties for 90 yards, Jaguars 5 for 54.
Last 2+ years, 49ers are 7-13-1 ATS in games coming off a win.

Bears 25, Raiders 24
Bears drove 73 yards, scored game-winning TD with 1:34 left.
Bears blocked 54-yard FG on last play to preserve the win.
Chicago had four takeaways for second game in a row.
Chicago was 7-16 on third down, Las Vegas 2-8.
Raiders led 14-9 at halftime.
Las Vegas ran ball 31 times for 240 yards.
Ashton Jeanty carried ball 21 times for 138 yards.
Bears are 7-13-3 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Giants 21, Chargers 18
Rookie QB Dart threw for 111 yards, ran for 54 more in his first NFL start.
Giants’ first four drives: 34 plays, 154 yards, 13 points.
Giants’ last six drives: 36 plays, 107 yards, 8 points.
Under Daboll, Giants are 10-6-1 ATS vs AFC teams.
Giants were 7-15 on third down, Chargers 4-12.
Bolts held last three opponents to 218-265-250 total yards.
Chargers had 14 penalties for 107 yards, Giants 8 for 43
Rookie RB Hampton ran ball 12 times for 128 yards and a TD.

Eagles 31, Buccaneers 25
Eagles blocked punt for TD for the game’s first score.
Eagles led 24-6 at halftime, hung on for dear life.
Mayfield threw INT in red zone midway thru 4th quarter.
Eagles are 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite.
Buccaneers outgained Philly, 376-200.
Tampa Bay turned ball over on three of their last five drives.
Tampa Bay is 3-7 ATS last ten games as a home underdog.
NFC South teams are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.

Rams 27, Colts 20
Stafford’s 88-yard TD pass to Atwell (1:33 left) was a game-winner.
Rams’ last two drives: 12 plays, 171 yards, 14 points.
Stafford threw for 375 yards, three TD’s.
Nucua caught 13 passes for 170 yards and a TD.
Rams had 13-play, 96-yard drive to take 13-10 lead at half.
Rams are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 games vs AFC opponents.
Colts had three turnovers, and 11 penalties for 88 yards.
Colts didn’t turn ball over in their first three games.

Famous birthdays, September 29th:
Ian McShane, 83
Tim Flannery, 68
Craig Lefferts, 68
Andrew Dice Clay, 68
Hersey Hawkins, 59
Erika Eleniak, 56
Zachary Levi, 45
Calvin Johnson, 40
Kevin Durant, 37
Tyler Mahle, 31
Ashley Frangipane, 31 (Halsey)
Lucas Havrisik, 26

Chiefs 37, Ravens 20
Ravens gave up 41-38-37 points in their three losses.
Star QB Jackson left game with an ankle injury.
AFC North teams are 4-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chiefs’ first four drives: 34 plays, 223 yards, 20 points.
Mahomes threw for 270 yards, 4 TD’s, to four different guys.
Chiefs won seven of last eight games vs Baltimore.
Chiefs are 11-7 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Steelers 24, Vikings 21
Steelers led 14-6 at halftime of first-ever game in Ireland.
Steelers scored 34-21-24 points in wins, 17 in their loss.
Steelers have run ball 87 times for only 259 yards.
Steelers are 27-14-1 ATS last 41 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Rodgers threw an 80-yard TD pass to Metcalf.
Vikings QB Wentz threw for 350 yards, but also two INTs.
Vikings scored 27-48 points in their wins, 6-21 in losses.
WR Jefferson caught 10 catches for 126 yards,

Texans 26, Titans 0
Tennessee is 0-4 SU/ATS, losing by 8-14-21-26 points.
Titans have three TD’s, 10 FG’s on their 44 drives.
Tennessee is 3-12 ATS in last 15 games as an underdog.
Texans outgained Tennessee, 353-175.
Texans led this game 6-0 at halftime.
This was Houston’s first shutout since 2010.
Houston was 6-15 on third down, Tennessee 2-11.
Texans’ first four drives of 2nd half: 31 plays, 190 yards, 20 points.

Falcons 34, Commanders 27
QB Penix was 20-26/313 passing, with two TD’s.
Falcons’ first three drives: 28 plays, 181 yards, 17 points.
Atlanta led 17-10 at halftime.
Falcons outgained Washington, 435-294
Falcons were 6-12 on third down, Commanders 1-8.
Washington is 0-2 on road, losing 27-18/34-37.
In its wins, Commanders ran ball for 220-201 yards.
Its losses, Commanders ran 51-147 yards.

Bills 31, Saints 19
Saints’ first nine drives ended in Buffalo territory.
Bills led by only 14-10 at halftime.
Buffalo won its first four games,. scoring 41-30-31-31 points.
Last 3+ years, Bills are 3-8-1 ATS as a double digit favorite.
Saints lost first four games, 20-13/26-21/44-13/31-19.
Since 2018, Saints are 19-9-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Rattler is 0-10 as an NFL starting QB.
New Orleans has been outscored 85-33 in first half of games.

Lions 34, Browns 10
Detroit led this game 20-7 at halftime.
Lions scored 52-38-34 points in their last three games.
Lions are 16-8 ATS last 24 games as a home favorite.
Detroit is 15-7 ATS in last 22 games vs AFC teams
Browns scored 16-17-13-10 points in their four games.
Cleveland is minus-6 in turnovers this year.
Browns are 6-15-1 ATS last 22 games coming off a win.
Browns allowed only 277 yards, most they’ve given up this year.

Patriots 42, Panthers 13
Down 6-0, Patriots ran a punt back 87 yards for a TD.
Patriots also ran a punt back 61 yards to set up another TD.
NE’s first four drives: 21 plays, 151 yards, 21 points.
Patriots scored 33-42 points in wins, 13-14 points in losses.
Carolina drove 76 yards for a TD on first drive.
Carolina’s next five drives: 30 plays, 93 yards, no points.
Panthers are 6-14-1 ATS last 21 games as a road underdog.
Carolina is 7-15 ATS in last 22 games vs AFC opponents.

— Playoff picture with postseason starting Tuesday:
NL: Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards: Cubs, Padres, Reds
AL: Blue Jays, Guardians, Mariners. Wild Cards: New York, Red Sox, Tigers
 

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Regular season has concluded. Wild card round begins tomorrow.
 

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2025 MLB playoffs: Ranking the starting pitching staffs and bullpens of all 12 postseason teams

While playoff schedules give way to shifting pitcher roles, the arms remain the same

We have our field of 12 Major League Baseball playoff teams for the 2025 battle for the World Series trophy. If the regular season was any indication, we're in for an incredibly chaotic postseason, one which hopefully includes our first World Series Game 7 since 2019. First things first, though, we need to dive in and rank the 12 pitching staffs because ranking things is fun. Keep in mind that teams' regular season five-man rotations won't be intact for the playoffs, and some of those starters will be pitching out of the bullpen. Others won't make the roster at all. Also, there's so much variance in here that we could jumble them up and it wouldn't even seem bad.

12. Toronto Blue Jays

The rotation has the potential to be a major weakness here. Kevin Gausman looked great for a stretch but then was bad in his last two outings. Shane Bieber has been pretty good but certainly not dominant or even great. Max Scherzer has fallen apart. José Berríos probably isn't to be trusted. Is the rookie Trey Yesavage ready?

They have a shaky bullpen, too.

11. Detroit Tigers

Tarik Skubal does a lot of heavy lifting here, but he's only one man. Even with the AL ERA leader on staff, the Tigers ranked 16th in ERA this season. Jack Flaherty isn't anywhere close to a safe bet. Injuries to Jackson Jobe and Reese Olson crushed their depth and Casey Mize ha a 5.54 ERA in his last 13 starts (though he was a bit better in September). The bullpen was bad in June, terrible in July, pretty good in August and bad in September. That doesn't inspire much confidence moving toward October.

10. New York Yankees

The Yankees have had so many bullpen issues this season that we cannot expect them all to go away for the playoffs. I do think that you could squint your way to a prediction that some combination of David Bednar, Luke Weaver, Devin Williams, Fernando Cruz and Camilo Doval will have a dominant postseason and it could well come to fruition. They could also totally fall apart.

The rotation should be good. Max Fried is back on track and Carlos Rodón had a very good year. Luis Gil and Cam Schlittler have shown enough to make me believe they could be a nice No. 3 and 4, too.


There have just been far too many bullpen issues.

9. Cincinnati Reds

There's a case to be made that the Reds could ride dominant starts from Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo to an unlikely, deep playoff run. Lodolo is inconsistent and might have a groin injury while Abbott was subpar in three of his last five starts. The back end of the bullpen is really good with Emilio Pagán and Tony Santillan, but depth isn't as good and is worrisome. Still, it's possible I have the Reds underranked and my concerns with Lodolo and Abbott will prove to be misguided.

8. Chicago Cubs

The Cade Horton injury is very concerning. The rookie had catapulted himself into position to be the postseason ace. Maybe he'll be back by the NLCS, if the Cubs even make it there. Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon could prove to be a very nice three-man rotation for the Wild Card Series, but there are questions. Boyd might've hit a wall in the second half, posting a 5.51 ERA in his last nine starts. Imanaga gives up so many fly balls that if he's in an environment conducive to home runs (if the wind is blowing out in Wrigley, for example), he runs into trouble. The bullpen has been very hot-and-cold this season, though it seems like Craig Counsell has settled into a good formula late in the game with Brad Keller and Andrew Kittredge leading the way. Like so many teams on this list, it isn't difficult to envision an excellent or awful postseason from this group.

7. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers had the second-best ERA in baseball this season and the best mark among playoff teams. They've run into issues, though. The injuries to José Quintana and Brandon Woodruff hurt the rotation and rookie Jacob Misiorowski had a 6.06 ERA in his last eight outings, which are becoming shorter and shorter. The bullpen is excellent and will likely continue to be, but the rotation after ace Freddy Peralta is full of questions.

6. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers ranked 17th in staff ERA this season. Moving to a postseason rotation actually looks pretty promising for them though. They have six starting pitchers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan). They can use three or four of them in their playoff rotation and send the rest to the bullpen, which is where the Dodgers were burned so frequently this season.

We cannot, though, be certain that some of these starters will be great in relief. It's an unknown. There's potential for everything to click and the Dodgers to have the best pitching staff in the postseason, but those bullpen warts cannot be ignored.

5. Boston Red Sox
Garrett Crochet is an elite-tier ace while Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito are capable of being very good mid-rotation guys. How good does rookie lefty Connelly Early look? X-factor? He has that feel.

In the bullpen, 37-year-old closer Aroldis Chapman had a career year. Garrett Whitlock is one of the best setup men in baseball and there's good depth. The Red Sox had the second-best bullpen ERA in all of baseball this season and that takes on heightened importance in the playoffs.

4. Seattle Mariners

Again, the range of variance is large here. Bryan Woo is reliable, but Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have all been inconsistent this season. Gilbert had a 2.52 ERA in his last seven starts, Castillo was great in his last four and Kirby was great in his last three. If this foursome pitches to its ceiling, the Mariners will probably win the World Series. There's an awful lot of them not pitching to their potential this season, though, so will the good times run out?

The bullpen isn't as deep as you'd like, but Matt Brash, Eduard Bazardo and closer Andrés Muñoz form a great back-end trio.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

I'd likely have the Phillies first here if Zack Wheeler didn't go down with a season-ending injury. Still, it's a quality group. Cristopher Sánchez is going to finish second in NL Cy Young voting. Ranger Suárez was rocky to finish the season, but he's capable of being one of the best No. 2 starters in the playoffs. Jesús Luzardo struck out 216 this season. Walker Buehler's been great since joining the Phillies. Did Aaron Nola finally find himself in his last start? One of these five can help the bullpen.

Jhoan Duran is a beast at closer with Matt Strahm being a great setup man. The depth isn't great, but in the playoffs that isn't as much of a concern as the regular season.

2. San Diego Padres
Though they've lost Jason Adam to injury, the Padres have a stellar bullpen. Robert Suarez and Mason Miller at the back end is a deadly combo while Adrian Morejon is also amazing and Jeremiah Estrada is a mega bat-misser (108 K in 73 IP).

The rotation has big upside now with Michael King back from injury, Nick Pivetta having his career year and Dylan Cease's monster potential. Cease had an off year for the most part, but he did pitch to a 3.12 ERA in his last five starts, so he's trending in the right direction.

1. Cleveland Guardians

The team with the worst offense in the playoffs also has the best pitching staff despite having traded away Bieber and having lost Emmanuel Clase to a gambling investigation. The Guardians have posted a sparkling 2.61 ERA in September with Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and rookie Parker Messick throwing like a trio of aces down the stretch. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski have really locked things down at the back end of the bullpen, too.
 

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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Week 5 NFL trends:
— 49ers @ LA Rams (-5.5)
— Vikings (-3.5) vs Browns (@ London)
— Texans @ Baltimore (-3.5)
— Giants @ New Orleans (-1.5)
— Broncos @ Philadelphia (-4.5)
— Cowboys (-2.5) @ Jets

Quote of the Day
“I believe Carlos (Mendoza) has all the same traits and assets that I believed [he had] when we hired him two years ago. And I think over the course of his tenure here, he has demonstrated that. We had a tough year this year. There’s no question. We are all disappointed. We were all frustrated — Mendy, as much or more than anybody else. But I still believe he’s a very good manager, and I think he’s going to demonstrate that.”
Mets’ general manager David Stearns

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the New York Jets, who has thrown for the most yards?

Monday’s quiz
Matthew Stafford played his college football at Georgia.

Sunday’s quiz
Milwaukee Brewers have played in one World Series; it against the Cardinals, in 1982.

******************************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

Dolphins 27, Jets 21
Jets ran ball for 197 yards, but had 13 penalties for 101 yards.
Jets lost first four games, giving up 34-30-29-27 points.
Only one of their four losses was by more than six points.
Jets are 3-12-1 ATS last 16 AFC East road games.
Miami’s first five drives: 42 plays, 235 yards, 24 points.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 13-8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Dolphins won 10 of last 12 series games.
Jets are 0-10 SU/1-6-3 ATS in last nine visits to Miami.

Broncos 28, Bengals 3
Broncos dominated game, outgaining Cincy 512-159.
Denver is 2-0 at home; they didn’t allow a TD either game.
JK Dobbins ran ball 16 times for 101 yards.
Bo Nix threw for 326 yards, two TD’s.
Zac Taylor is 45-32-1 SU when Joe Burrow plays, 8-24 when he doesn’t.
In four games, Bengals have run ball 76 times for only 200 yards.
Denver was 8-14 on third down, Bengals 2-11.
AFC North teams are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Future Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy will not return as manager of the Texas Rangers; he won the World Series with Texas in 2023, went 78-84/81-81 the last two years. Texas had an awful lot of injuries this past year.
Overall, Bochy has won four World Series titles, three with the Giants.

— Speaking of the Giants, they fired Bob Melvin Monday, a few weeks after they extended his contract thru next year. Giants went 81-81 this year, but new GM Buster Posey didn’t hire him. Lot of times GM’s want to hire “their guy” as manager.
A 3-time Manager of the Year who won the award in both leagues, Melvin has a career regular-season record of 1,678-1,588 with 8 postseason appearances for five different teams. Melvin made the playoffs six times in 10 years with the A’s; he is a very good manager.

— Minnesota Twins fired manager Rocco Baldelli after they went 70-92 this year, while the team was going a tumultuous season in the front office, owner-wise. Baldelli made the playoffs three times in seven seasons managing the Twins.

— How the five biggest baseball payrolls made out this season:
$350,300,236- Dodgers won NL West
$342,377,486- Mets went 83-79, missed the playoffs
$300,187,616- Bronx is #1 Wild Card in AL
$290,286,320- Phillies won NL East
$255,380,936- Blue Jays won AL East

— How the five smallest baseball payrolls made out this season:
$67,950,708- Marlins went 79-83, 41-40 on the road
$78,824,978- White Sox went 60-102, 19 games better than last year.
$79,118,043- A’s went 76-86, seven games better than last year.
$84,423,338- Pirates went 71-91; they were 44-37 at home.
$87,629,788- Rays went 77-85 playing home games on a minor league field.

Famous birthdays, September 30th:
Angie Dickinson, 94
Dave Magadan, 63
Eric Piatkowski, 55
Jenna Elfman, 54
Jamal Anderson, 53
Kenley Jansen, 38
Aaron Holiday, 29
Jesus Luzardo, 28

— After the Jaguars upset San Francisco 26-21 Sunday, 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh accused Jacksonville and its head coach, Liam Coen, of using a sign-stealing system.
In the week leading up to the game, Saleh claimed that Coen and the Jaguars use an “advanced” legal sign-stealing system while speaking with reporters.
After Sunday’s win, all Coen said was; “Not a big deal. We’ll keep that between us.”

— Arkansas Razorbacks fired football coach Sam Pittman Monday, named Bobby Petrino their interim coach. Arkansas was 32-34 under Pittman, losing their last three games, including a loss to Memphis when the Razorbacks blew an 18-point lead.
Petrino is 119-56 as a college coach; he was Lamar Jackson’s coach at Louisville. He also was 34-17 as coach of Arkansas, back from 2008-11.

— Weird college football stat: Under Lincoln Riley, USC is 0-12 ATS as a road favorite, in games not played in California.

— Houston Astros missed the baseball playoffs this year for the first time since 2016.

— Baseball is a long season, lot of ups and downs:
Cleveland Guardians made the playoffs, despite a 10-game losing streak from June 26-July 6.

— Detroit Tigers also made the playoffs.
From July 9th-26th, Tigers went 1-12…..from September 16-24, they went 0-8.

— Mets had a lot of expectations this year with such a big payroll- that put a lot of pressure on them, and they wound up missing the playoffs, losing 2 of 3 games in Miami over the weekend. Mets finished 83-79.
Mets were 45-25 on June 13th; rest of the season, they went 38-54.
After Sunday’s win, Miami’s team had a team picture taken in front of their dugout, like they were celebrating something. Marlins finished 79-83, going over their season over/under win total by 15.5 games. They had a very good season.
 

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MLB
Weather Report

Tuesday, September 30

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MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, September 30


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MLB

Tuesday, September 30


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Trend Report
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Detroit VS Cleveland

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games.
Detroit is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games.
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games against Cleveland.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cleveland's last 19 games.
Cleveland is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games against Detroit.
Cleveland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home.

San Diego VS Chicago
San Diego is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the National League.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games against an opponent in the National League Central Division division.
San Diego is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games played in September.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago Cubs' last 6 games.
Chicago Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Chicago Cubs' last 20 games against San Diego.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago Cubs' last 5 games at home.

Boston VS New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games.
Boston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games.
Boston is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games against NY Yankees.
Boston is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Yankees' last 10 games.
NY Yankees is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games.
NY Yankees is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Yankees' last 7 games when playing at home against Boston.

Cincinnati VS Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games.
Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games.
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games against LA Dodgers.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road.
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers' last 8 games against Cincinnati.
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home.
LA Dodgers is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.


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MLB Postseason Betting Trends and Systems:​

Overall MLB Postseason Trends​

Line Angles

– Road favorites of -140 or higher are on a 32-18 SU run since 2001 (+4.65 units, ROI: +9.3%)

– In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 54-62 for -22.53 units (ROI: -19.4%)

– Home favorites of -240 or higher are on a run of 15-2 SU (+9.85 units, ROI: 57.9%)

– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 74-74 SU (-31.34 units, ROI: -21.2%)

Coming Off Wins/Losses

– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 53-59 SU (-21.54 units, ROI: -19.2%) since 2016.

– Home teams coming off a win in a series game have been a better option, 73-62 SU (-5.21 units, ROI: -3.9%) in that same time span.


Series Wins Status

– For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 69-47 SU (+14.99 units, ROI: 12.9%) and 61-55 on run lines (+15.7 units, ROI: 13.5%) since ’13.

– Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 80-75 on run lines (+16.85 units, ROI: 10.9%) since 2015.

– Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 37-42 SU (-25.69 units, ROI: -32.5%) since 2013.

Stats from Last Game Trends

– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 47-62 SU (-36.41 units, ROI: -33.4%) and 34-75 on run lines (-33.75 units, ROI: -31%) since 2012.

– Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just 1 or 2 runs are on a 19-5 SU (+14.62 units, ROI: 60.9%) surge since 2016.

– MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 53-47 SU (+3.23 units, ROI: 3.23%) surge and 54-46 on run lines (+6.25 units, ROI: +6.25%) since 2014.


– Power surges don’t tend to last in for big underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +130 or more coming off a game in which they hit three home runs or more are just 8-30 SU (-16.72 units, ROI: -44%) and 13-25 on run lines (-19.3 units, ROI: -50.8%) in the follow up game since ’02.

– Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 33-57 SU (-15.89 units, ROI: -17.7%) since 2016.

Trends Based Upon Regular-Season Records

– In the last 108 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 54-64 SU (-34.8 units, ROI: -29.5%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023! However, they were 7-3 for +2.7 units in 2024.

– In the last five playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 16-28 SU (-22.7 units, ROI: -51.6%) and 12-32 on run lines (-23.1 units, ROI: -52.5%) in playoff games. The record of these teams in ‘23…1-9 SU and 0-10 RL’s. There were none of these teams last year, and there are again none in 2025. Milwaukee won the most games in the regular season, 97.


– In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 46-40 SU (+17.11 units, ROI: 19.9%) and 56-30 on run lines (+17.2 units, ROI: 20%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.

Totals Angles

– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has split 80-73, Overs have produced a return of +25.5 units, a ROI of 16.7%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.

Wild Card Round Angles

2022 was the first season in which the wild card round expanded to a 3-game series

– Wild Card visitors priced at -110 to +160 underdogs are on a 20-16 SU (+11.19 units, ROI: 31.1%) and 25-11 (+7.2 units, ROI: 20%) on run lines surge since 2018.

– Wildcard totals have gone 32-19 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +14.05 units, or an ROI of 27.5%.

– Since the wildcard playoffs turned into series in 2022, the team that has won Game 1 in the series has gone 10-2 SU (+10.11 units, ROI: 84.3%) & 8-4 (+3.9 units, ROI: 32.5%) on run lines in the follow-up Game 2.


Divisional Round Angles

– Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 56-37 SU (+5.91 units, ROI: 6.4%) and 51-42 on run lines (+16.8 units, ROI: 18.1%) since ‘15.

– Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of runs scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 40-26 SU (+17.52 units, ROI: 26.5%).

– Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 33-22 SU (+10.25 units, ROI: 18.6%). These follow-up games also tend to go UNDER on totals, 30-22 (+5.9 units, ROI: 11.3%)

– Game 1 home favorites in the divisional round are on a 33-18 SU (+8.25 units, ROI: 16.2%) surge, including 3-1 last year.

– There have been 30 divisional round Game 5s since 2002, 26 of them had favorites (-110 or higher), and those teams have gone just 12-16 SU (-10.55 units, ROI: -37.7%) and 9-19 (-8.6 units, ROI: -30.7%) on run lines


– Of those 28 Game 5 divisional round favorites, 21 of them have been home favorites, and those teams are just 8-13 SU (-10.9 units, ROI: -51.9%).

LCS Round Angles

– There has been a -52.6% ROI on betting favorites of -190 or higher in the LCS round, as they are just 10-9 for -9.3 units since 2000.

– If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 60-24 (71.4%) for +20.75 units since 2000, an ROI of 24.7%!

– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, going 42-38 (+14.83 units, ROI: 18.5%) since 2018.

– Teams losing while failing to score more than 2 runs in a LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 40-59 SU (-22.69 units, ROI: -22.9%).

– The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring 7 runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same series win in which they scored 6 runs or more, as those teams are just 25-38 SU (-19.08 units, ROI: -30.3%) since 2015, including 2-5 last year.


– Game 1 home teams in the LCS round are on a 13-5 SU (+6.67 units, ROI: 37.1%) surge since 2015.

– Game 1 road/neutral LCS favorites are just 2-7 SU (-6.75 units, ROI: -75%) & 0-9 RL (-9 units, ROI: -100%) since 2002

– LCS Game 1 teams that won 100 or more games in the regular season are on a 7-1 SU (+6.25 units, ROI: 78.1%) run since 2004 when matched against a team that didn’t win 100 games.

– Unders hold a huge edge on Game 1 totals of 8 or more dating back to the year 2000, 16-8 (+6.1 units, ROI: 25.4%)

– Over the last 10 non-neutral LCS series, home teams in Game 2 are on a run of 15-7 SU (+8.6 units, ROI: 39.1%).

– Game 2 teams that lost in Game 1 are just 8-15 SU (-9.1 units, ROI: -39.6%) and 6-17 (-12.9, ROI: -56.1%) on run lines since 2013

– Road/neutral teams down 0-1 in a LCS series have gone just 5-13 SU (-9.4 units, ROI: -52.2%) since 2008.

– All but two of 15 LCS Game 2 favorites of -150 or more have won their games since 2000 (+9.8 units, ROI: 65.3%).


– Game 2 favorites of -110 to -145 ML are on a brutal skid of 6-26 (-17.4 units, ROI: -54.4%) on run lines.

– Road teams in LCS Game 3s that are down 0-2 in the series have gone just 1-5 since 2006 (-4 units, ROI: -66.7%), scoring for total runs in the five losses.

– Game 4 underdogs are on a big run of 25-17 SU (+14.64 units, ROI: -34.9%) and 29-13 RL (+8.45 units, ROI: 20.1%) run since 2003 in the LCS round. However, both lost last year in both categories.

– Game 4 teams trailing in their LCS series have really struggled of late, going 11-28 SU (-22.61 units, ROI: -57.9%) and 12-27 (-19.85 units, ROI: -50.9%) on run lines since 2005

– On Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 30-7-1 for +22.3 units, an ROI of 60.2%. This includes 2-0 a year ago.

– Big favorites of -140 or more in LCS Game 5s have been practically automatic since 2000, going 17-3 SU (+11.95 units, ROI: 59.8%).

– Teams looking to close out series in Game 5s have typically failed to do so, going 6-11 SU (-5.2 units, ROI: -30.6%) and 5-12 (-8.95 units, ROI: -52.6%) on run lines in their last 17 tries


– Game 6s have belonged to home teams since 2006, as they have gone 16-5 outright (+9.88 units, ROI: 47%) and on run lines (+14.35 units, ROI: 68.3%)

– Game 6 favorites have gone just 9-16 SU (-15.02 units, ROI: -60.1%) since 2003 in the LCS round

– Not surprisingly, Unders have been the total of choice in Game 7s recently, with that option on totals going 8-3 (+4.55 units, ROI: 41.4%) in the last 11.
 

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Tuesday, September 30

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
DET at CLE01:08 PMCLE +140
O 6.0
+500 +500
SD at CHC03:08 PMSD +110
O 7.0
+500 +500
BOS at NYY06:08 PMBOS +115
O 7.0
+500 +500
CIN at LAD09:08 PMCIN +170
O 7.0
+500 +500
 

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BEST BETS MLB PLAYOFFS !

09/30/2025......................2 - 6 - 0.............................25.00%.......................... - 20.75

TOTALS..............................2 - 6 - 0.............................25.00%...........................- 20.75
 

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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Most receiving yards in NFL, Week 4:
170— Puka Nucua, Rams
134— George Pickens,
126— Justin Jefferson, Vikings
126— DK Metcalf, Steelers
114— Jordan Addison, Vikings
110—Drake London, Falcons

Quote of the Day
“It’s a challenge that it doesn’t matter how difficult it is, no one [outside the building] really cares. You have to find a way to get yourself to continue to get better, like all teams, for you to stay in the win column.”
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel

Wednesday’s quiz
When was the last time the World Series went to seven games?

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the New York Jets, Joe Namath has thrown for the most yards.

Monday’s quiz
Matthew Stafford played his college football at Georgia.

****************************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

— Tigers 2, Guardians 1
Cleveland had tying run on third, no one out in 9th inning, but didn’t score.
Tarik Skubal struck out 14 guys in 7 IP, throwing 107 pitches.
Zach McKinstry knocked the game-winning run in with a sac bunt in 7th inning.

— Cubs 3, Padres 1
Chicago’s bullpen got 14 outs, didn’t allow a baserunner.
Suzuki/Kelly hit back/back home runs in fifth inning.
Top three hitters in San Diego’s lineup were a combined 0-11.

— Red Sox 3, Bronx 1
Yoshida’s 7th inning pinch-hit single was a game-winner.
Max Fried got 19 outs, didn’t allow a run.
New York’s bullpen gave up three runs in 2.2 IP.
Bronx had bases loaded, none out in 9th inning, but didn’t score.

— Dodgers 10, Reds 5
Hernandez, Ohtani both homered twice for the Dodgers.
Pitching in his hometown, Reds P Greene gave up 5 runs in three IP
Blake Snell allowed four hits in seven IP.

— Since the current best-of-three Wild Card series began in 2022, road teams have won 8 of 12 series including three of four last year.
How big is Game 1? The winner of Game 1 has won all 12 series, 10 of those in a 2-game sweep.

— Toronto Blue Jays have a bye this week; they’re hosting intrasquad games at Rogers Centre this week, to keep their players sharp. Fans can attend for $10.
First pitch is 4:00, with gates opening at 3:15. Games “will be four to five innings and structured as informal scrimmages, featuring players from the Blue Jays and AAA Buffalo Bisons”

— Angels parted ways Tuesday with manager Ron Washington, interim manager Ray Montgomery. 73-year old Washington was 99-137 managing the Angels; he had health issues this year and missed most of the season.

— Giants’ SS Willie Adames hit 30 home runs this year, the first player to hit 30 homers in one season for San Francisco since Barry Bonds, in 2004.

Famous birthdays, October 1st
Julie Andrews, 90
Rod Carew, 80
Mark McGwire, 62
Zach Galifianakis, 56
Matt Cain, 41
Brie Larson, 36
Dustin Hopkins, 35
Robbie Ray, 34
Xander Bogaerts, 33
Cedric Mullins, 31
Otto Lopez, 27
Jordan Whittington, 25

— College football conference ATS trends:
American- Home teams 1-7 ATS in conference play.
ACC- Non-conference home favorites are 6-11 ATS
Big 18- Underdogs are 9-4 ATS in conference games.
Big X- Home favorites are 6-3 ATS in conference games.
C-USA- Home teams are 6-3 ATS in non-conference games.
MAC- Home teams are 5-0 ATS in conference games.
Mountain West- Teams are 21-10 ATS in non-conference games.
SEC- Underdogs are 8-4 ATS in conference games.
Sun Belt- Home teams are 4-1 ATS in conference games.

— NFL divisional ATS trends:
AFC East- home teams 1-3 ATS in divisional games.
AFC North- teams are 4-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
AFC South- teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
AFC West- teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
NFC East- teams are 6-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
NFC North- home teams are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
NFC South- home teams are 1-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
NFC West- teams are 7-3 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill dislocated his left knee Monday night, is out for the rest of this year and maybe longer- he’ll need multiple surgeries.

— There is a survivor pool at the Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas that has over 12,000 entries; this past week, 784 people got knocked out when the Chargers lost to the Giants.

— Sunday was Davante Adams’ 64th career game with 50+ receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.
That is 5th-most in the last 25 years, behind:
73- Larry Fitzgerald
69- Antonio Gates
68- Terrell Owens
66- Mike Evans

— Tampa Bay kicker Chase McLaughlin kicked a 65-yard field goal, the longest outdoor field goal in NFL history.

Random trivia: Jesse Owens won four gold medals at the 1936 Olympics in Germany, one of which was in the 200-meter sprint, where he set a new Olympic record.
The person who won the silver medal in the 200-meter sprint was Matthew Robinson, who also broke the Olympic record in that race. He had a younger brother who was became a lot more famous, baseball player Jackie Robinson.
 

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MLB
Weather Report

Wednesday, October 1

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MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 1


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MLB

Wednesday, October 1


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Trend Report
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Detroit VS Cleveland

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 6 games.
Detroit is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games.
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games against Cleveland.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Cleveland's last 20 games.
Cleveland is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games against Detroit.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 13 games at home.

San Diego VS Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games.
San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games on the road.
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago Cubs.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago Cubs' last 7 games.
Chicago Cubs is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Chicago Cubs' last 18 games against San Diego.
Chicago Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home.

Boston VS New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games.
Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
Boston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games against NY Yankees.
Boston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Yankees' last 11 games.
NY Yankees is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games.
NY Yankees is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home.
NY Yankees is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Boston.

Cincinnati VS Los Angeles
Cincinnati is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games.
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games against LA Dodgers.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road.
Cincinnati is 0-7 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers.
LA Dodgers is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Dodgers' last 12 games against Cincinnati.
LA Dodgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home.
LA Dodgers is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.


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Wednesday, October 1

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
DET at CLE01:08 PMCLE -135
O 6.5
+500 +500
SD at CHC03:08 PMSD -110
U 6.5
+500 +500
BOS at NYY06:08 PMBOS +150
U 7.5
+500 +500
CIN at LAD09:08 PMCIN +230
O 8.0
+500 +500
 

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These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Since the wildcard playoffs turned into series in 2022, the team that has won Game 1 in the series has gone 10-2 SU (+10.11 units, ROI: 84.3%) and 8-4 (+3.9 units, ROI: 32.5%) on run lines in the follow-up Game 2.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, LA DODGERS

Trend: Under the total is 12-4-2 (+7.45 units) when SD is road underdogs with starter Dylan Cease since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-CHC (o/u at 6.5)

* Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just 1 or 2 runs are on a 19-5 SU (+14.62 units, ROI: 60.9%) surge since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+108 at CLE)


* Playoff home favorites of -240 or higher are on a run of 15-2 SU (+9.85 units, ROI: 57.9%)
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN)

Overall MLB Postseason Trends​

Line angles

– Home favorites of -240 or higher are on a run of 15-2 SU (+9.85 units, ROI: 57.9%)
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN)

– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 75-75 SU (-31.71 units, ROI: -21.1%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-132 vs DET), CHICAGO CUBS (-119 vs SD)

Coming off losses

– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 53-59 SU (-21.54 units, ROI: -19.2%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-132 vs DET), NY YANKEES (-186 vs BOS)

Series wins status

– For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 69-47 SU (+14.99 units, ROI: 12.9%) and 61-55 on run lines (+15.7 units, ROI: 13.5%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS

– Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 37-42 SU (-25.69 units, ROI: -32.5%) since 2013.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-132 vs DET), NY YANKEES (-186 vs BOS)


Stats from last game trends

– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 47-62 SU (-36.41 units, ROI: -33.4%) and 34-75 on run lines (-33.75 units, ROI: -31%) since 2012.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES

– Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just 1 or 2 runs are on a 19-5 SU (+14.62 units, ROI: 60.9%) surge since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+108 at CLE)

– MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 53-47 SU (+3.23 units, ROI: 3.23%) surge and 54-46 on run lines (+6.25 units, ROI: +6.25%) since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

– Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 33-57 SU (-15.89 units, ROI: -17.7%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+223 at LAD)

Trends based upon regular-season records

– In the last 109 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 55-64 SU (-33.8 units, ROI: -31%) since 2019, including a hard to fathom 1-13 in 2023! However, they’ve gone 8-3 for +3.7 units since 2024.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN)


– In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 47-41 SU (+17.24 units, ROI: 19.6%) and 57-31 on run lines (+16.83 units, ROI: 19.1%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, CINCINNATI

Totals angles

– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the totals is split 81-76, Overs have produced a return of +23.02 units, an ROI of 14.7%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DET-CLE (o/u at 6.5), SD-CHC (o/u at 6.5), BOS-NYY (o/u at 7.5), CIN-LAD (o/u at 8)

Wild Card Round angles

2022 was the first season in which the wild card round expanded to a 3-game series

– Wild Card visitors priced at -110 to +160 underdogs are on a 21-17 SU (+11.32 units, ROI: 29.8%) and 26-12 (+6.12 units, ROI: 16.1%) on run lines surge since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, SAN DIEGO, BOSTON


– Wildcard totals have gone 35-20 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +15.96 units, or an ROI of 29%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-CLE (o/u at 6.5), SD-CHC (o/u at 6.5), BOS-NYY (o/u at 7.5), CIN-LAD (o/u at 8)

– Since the wildcard playoffs turned into series in 2022, the team that has won Game 1 in the series has gone 10-2 SU (+10.11 units, ROI: 84.3%) and 8-4 (+3.9 units, ROI: 32.5%) on run lines in the follow-up Game 2.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, LA DODGERS

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots​

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.


(901) DETROIT (88-75) at (902) CLEVELAND (88-75)
Trend:
DET is 32-50 (-21.78 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+1.5 at CLE)

Trend: DET is 16-7 (+8.74 units) in day game starts with Casey Mize since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+108 at CLE)

Trend: CLE has gone 28-12 (+15.18 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-132 vs DET)

(903) SAN DIEGO (90-73) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (93-70)
Trend:
Under the total is 12-4-2 (+7.45 units) when SD is road underdogs with starter Dylan Cease since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-CHC (o/u at 6.5)

Trend: SD is 35-21 (+11.14 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+1.5 at CHC)

(905) BOSTON (90-73) at (906) NEW YORK-AL (94-69)
Trend:
BOS is 20-18 (+4.65 units) against divisional teams with starter Brayan Bello
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BOSTON (+151 at NYY)


Trend: Carlos Rodon has not been good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 5-11 (-16.19 units) in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-186 vs BOS)

(907) CINCINNATI (83-80) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (94-69)
Trend:
LAD is just 64-87 (-22.78 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs CIN)

Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends​

Series #1: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Trend
: Cleveland is 12-6 SU in post-All-Star Break games versus Detroit in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-132 vs DET)

Series #3: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Trend
: Boston has gone 10-4 SU versus NYY this season
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+151 at NYY)

Series #4: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
Trend
: LA Dodgers are 7-1 SU hosting Cincinnati in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN)
 

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BEST BETS MLB PLAYOFFS !

10/01/2025......................5 - 2 - 0.............................71.42%..........................+ 15.00
09/30/2025......................2 - 6 - 0.............................25.00%.......................... - 20.75

TOTALS..............................7 - 8 - 0.............................46.66%...........................- 5.75
 

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MLB
Weather Report

Thursday, October 2

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MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, October 2


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MLB

Thursday, October 2


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Trend Report
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Detroit VS Cleveland

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games.
Detroit is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games.
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games against Cleveland.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cleveland's last 20 games.
Cleveland is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games against Detroit.
Cleveland is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games at home.

San Diego VS Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games.
San Diego is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games.
San Diego is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games against Chicago Cubs.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games on the road.
Chicago Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago Cubs' last 5 games against San Diego.
Chicago Cubs is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago Cubs' last 7 games when playing at home against San Diego.

Boston VS New York
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 6 games.
Boston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games against NY Yankees.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games on the road.
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees' last 6 games.
NY Yankees is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees' last 5 games against Boston.
NY Yankees is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home.


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Thursday, October 2

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
DET at CLE03:08 PMCLE -130
O 7.0
+500 +500
SD at CHC05:08 PMSD -105
U 7.5
+500 +500
BOS at NYY08:08 PMBOS +140
U 7.5
+500 +500
 

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BEST BETS MLB PLAYOFFS !

10/02/2025......................3 - 3 - 0.............................50.00%..........................- 1.75
10/01/2025......................5 - 2 - 0.............................71.42%..........................+ 15.00
09/30/2025......................2 - 6 - 0.............................25.00%.......................... - 20.75

TOTALS..........................10 - 11 - 0.............................47.61%...........................- 7.50
 

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Friday’s 6-pack:
Thru four weeks, most pass plays of 20+ yards:
17— Rams
16— 49ers
15— Raiders
14— Bills, Bears, Seahawks
13— Cowboys, Chargers, Buccaneers
12— Packers, Texans, Colts, Giants, Patriots

Quote of the Day
“I’d love to manage again. Obviously, Atlanta would be amazing, but there’s nothing to really elaborate on.”
Former major league catcher/manager David Ross

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans, who has thrown for the most yards?

Thursday’s quiz
1995 was the last time the Cincinnati Reds won a playoff series, the longest current drought in the major leagues.

Wednesday’s quiz
2019 was last time the World Series went to seven games, when Washington beat Houston.

*************************************************

Friday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday……

— Tigers 6, Guardians 3
Dillon Dingler hit the go-ahead homer in the 6th inning.
Tigers broke game open, scoring four runs in 7th inning.
Detroit-Seattle will meet in the ALDS.

— Cubs 3, Padres 1
Taillon allowed two baserunners in four scoreless IP (60 PT)
San Diego was 0-8 with runners in scoring position.
Cubs play Milwaukee in the NLDS.

— Bronx 4, Red Sox 0
Rookie Schlittler struck out 12 in eight scoreless IP.
Bronx scored all four of its runs in the fourth inning.
New York-Toronto will meet in the ALDS.

49ers 26, Rams 23 OT
SF stopped the Rams on 4th-and-1 to end the game.
Rams forced OT, kicking a 48-yard FG with 0:02 left
Rams also fumbled on the 49ers’ 1-yard line with 1:02 left.
49ers’ five games have all been decided by 5 or fewer points.
SF WR Bourne caught 10 passes for 142 yards.
49ers’ first two drives: 25 plays, 163 yards, 14 points.
49ers won six of last eight visits to Los Angeles.
Underdogs are 5-0-1 ATS in last six series games.

— New Mexico State 37, Sam Houston State 10
New Mexico State led 13-10 after the third quarter.
Aggies threw ball for 255 yards (9.4 yards/attempt)
Aggies were 9-13 on third down, Sam Houston 3-11

— Knicks 99, 76ers 84
Exhibition game was played in Abu Dhabi.
Knicks outscored Philly 28-18 in second quarter.
Knicks played 19 different players, 76ers played 13 guys.

Movie of the Day: All the President’s Men (1976)- Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein uncover details of the Watergate scandal that leads to President Richard Nixon’s resignation.
Tremendous cast: Robert Redford, Dustin Hoffman, Jack Warden, Hal Holbrook, Jason Robards, Martin Balsam, Ned Beatty, Meredith Baxter.

Famous birthdays, October 3rd:
Dave Winfield, 74
Greg Foster, 57
Janel Moloney, 56
Anquan Boldin, 45
Courtney Lee, 40
Mike Gesicki, 30
CJ Abrams, 25
CJ Stroud, 24
Abdul Carter, 22

Seven baseball players who could be free agents this winter:

— Pete Alonso 1B- Has $24M option with the Mets for next year, but can probably make way more than that, even though he is 31. Last five years, he’s hit 195 homers, played in 158 games a year. Durable and productive; Mets will probably re-sign him.

— Luis Arraez 1B/2B- Won three of last four batting titles, slumped to .292 this year. Does not have a lot of power, not real fast, average fielder, but he gets a lot of hits.

— Bo Bichette SS- Hit .311 this year with an .840 OPS. Led the league in hits in 2021/2022; he had an injury-plagued season last year. Had 94 RBI this season.

— Alex Bregman 3B- Can opt out of the last two years of his contract, which would pay $80M; had an .821 OPS this year, his best since 2019. It is assumed that he will opt out.

— Kyle Schwarber OF/DH- Is 33 years old, but he hit 56 homers, had 132 RBI this year, has 187 homers the last four seasons. Philly is an excellent hitters’ park; should he stay there?

— Kyle Tucker OF- Hit 134 homers the last five years, has career OPS of .865. Hurt his hand in July and struggled in second half of season.

— Framber Valdez, P- Is 32 years old; over last four years, is 57-35 in 121 starts. He’s pitched in the playoffs five of the last six years.
 

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