MLB Postseason Betting Trends and Systems:
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
– Road favorites of -140 or higher are on a 32-18 SU run since 2001 (+4.65 units, ROI: +9.3%)
– In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 54-62 for -22.53 units (ROI: -19.4%)
– Home favorites of -240 or higher are on a run of 15-2 SU (+9.85 units, ROI: 57.9%)
– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 74-74 SU (-31.34 units, ROI: -21.2%)
Coming Off Wins/Losses
– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 53-59 SU (-21.54 units, ROI: -19.2%) since 2016.
– Home teams coming off a win in a series game have been a better option, 73-62 SU (-5.21 units, ROI: -3.9%) in that same time span.
Series Wins Status
– For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 69-47 SU (+14.99 units, ROI: 12.9%) and 61-55 on run lines (+15.7 units, ROI: 13.5%) since ’13.
– Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 80-75 on run lines (+16.85 units, ROI: 10.9%) since 2015.
– Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 37-42 SU (-25.69 units, ROI: -32.5%) since 2013.
Stats from Last Game Trends
– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 47-62 SU (-36.41 units, ROI: -33.4%) and 34-75 on run lines (-33.75 units, ROI: -31%) since 2012.
– Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just 1 or 2 runs are on a 19-5 SU (+14.62 units, ROI: 60.9%) surge since 2016.
– MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 53-47 SU (+3.23 units, ROI: 3.23%) surge and 54-46 on run lines (+6.25 units, ROI: +6.25%) since 2014.
– Power surges don’t tend to last in for big underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +130 or more coming off a game in which they hit three home runs or more are just 8-30 SU (-16.72 units, ROI: -44%) and 13-25 on run lines (-19.3 units, ROI: -50.8%) in the follow up game since ’02.
– Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 33-57 SU (-15.89 units, ROI: -17.7%) since 2016.
Trends Based Upon Regular-Season Records
– In the last 108 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 54-64 SU (-34.8 units, ROI: -29.5%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023! However, they were 7-3 for +2.7 units in 2024.
– In the last five playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 16-28 SU (-22.7 units, ROI: -51.6%) and 12-32 on run lines (-23.1 units, ROI: -52.5%) in playoff games. The record of these teams in ‘23…1-9 SU and 0-10 RL’s. There were none of these teams last year, and there are again none in 2025. Milwaukee won the most games in the regular season, 97.
– In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 46-40 SU (+17.11 units, ROI: 19.9%) and 56-30 on run lines (+17.2 units, ROI: 20%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
Totals Angles
– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has split 80-73, Overs have produced a return of +25.5 units, a ROI of 16.7%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
Wild Card Round Angles
2022 was the first season in which the wild card round expanded to a 3-game series
– Wild Card visitors priced at -110 to +160 underdogs are on a 20-16 SU (+11.19 units, ROI: 31.1%) and 25-11 (+7.2 units, ROI: 20%) on run lines surge since 2018.
– Wildcard totals have gone 32-19 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +14.05 units, or an ROI of 27.5%.
– Since the wildcard playoffs turned into series in 2022, the team that has won Game 1 in the series has gone 10-2 SU (+10.11 units, ROI: 84.3%) & 8-4 (+3.9 units, ROI: 32.5%) on run lines in the follow-up Game 2.
Divisional Round Angles
– Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 56-37 SU (+5.91 units, ROI: 6.4%) and 51-42 on run lines (+16.8 units, ROI: 18.1%) since ‘15.
– Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of runs scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 40-26 SU (+17.52 units, ROI: 26.5%).
– Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 33-22 SU (+10.25 units, ROI: 18.6%). These follow-up games also tend to go UNDER on totals, 30-22 (+5.9 units, ROI: 11.3%)
– Game 1 home favorites in the divisional round are on a 33-18 SU (+8.25 units, ROI: 16.2%) surge, including 3-1 last year.
– There have been 30 divisional round Game 5s since 2002, 26 of them had favorites (-110 or higher), and those teams have gone just 12-16 SU (-10.55 units, ROI: -37.7%) and 9-19 (-8.6 units, ROI: -30.7%) on run lines
– Of those 28 Game 5 divisional round favorites, 21 of them have been home favorites, and those teams are just 8-13 SU (-10.9 units, ROI: -51.9%).
LCS Round Angles
– There has been a -52.6% ROI on betting favorites of -190 or higher in the LCS round, as they are just 10-9 for -9.3 units since 2000.
– If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 60-24 (71.4%) for +20.75 units since 2000, an ROI of 24.7%!
– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, going 42-38 (+14.83 units, ROI: 18.5%) since 2018.
– Teams losing while failing to score more than 2 runs in a LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 40-59 SU (-22.69 units, ROI: -22.9%).
– The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring 7 runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same series win in which they scored 6 runs or more, as those teams are just 25-38 SU (-19.08 units, ROI: -30.3%) since 2015, including 2-5 last year.
– Game 1 home teams in the LCS round are on a 13-5 SU (+6.67 units, ROI: 37.1%) surge since 2015.
– Game 1 road/neutral LCS favorites are just 2-7 SU (-6.75 units, ROI: -75%) & 0-9 RL (-9 units, ROI: -100%) since 2002
– LCS Game 1 teams that won 100 or more games in the regular season are on a 7-1 SU (+6.25 units, ROI: 78.1%) run since 2004 when matched against a team that didn’t win 100 games.
– Unders hold a huge edge on Game 1 totals of 8 or more dating back to the year 2000, 16-8 (+6.1 units, ROI: 25.4%)
– Over the last 10 non-neutral LCS series, home teams in Game 2 are on a run of 15-7 SU (+8.6 units, ROI: 39.1%).
– Game 2 teams that lost in Game 1 are just 8-15 SU (-9.1 units, ROI: -39.6%) and 6-17 (-12.9, ROI: -56.1%) on run lines since 2013
– Road/neutral teams down 0-1 in a LCS series have gone just 5-13 SU (-9.4 units, ROI: -52.2%) since 2008.
– All but two of 15 LCS Game 2 favorites of -150 or more have won their games since 2000 (+9.8 units, ROI: 65.3%).
– Game 2 favorites of -110 to -145 ML are on a brutal skid of 6-26 (-17.4 units, ROI: -54.4%) on run lines.
– Road teams in LCS Game 3s that are down 0-2 in the series have gone just 1-5 since 2006 (-4 units, ROI: -66.7%), scoring for total runs in the five losses.
– Game 4 underdogs are on a big run of 25-17 SU (+14.64 units, ROI: -34.9%) and 29-13 RL (+8.45 units, ROI: 20.1%) run since 2003 in the LCS round. However, both lost last year in both categories.
– Game 4 teams trailing in their LCS series have really struggled of late, going 11-28 SU (-22.61 units, ROI: -57.9%) and 12-27 (-19.85 units, ROI: -50.9%) on run lines since 2005
– On Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 30-7-1 for +22.3 units, an ROI of 60.2%. This includes 2-0 a year ago.
– Big favorites of -140 or more in LCS Game 5s have been practically automatic since 2000, going 17-3 SU (+11.95 units, ROI: 59.8%).
– Teams looking to close out series in Game 5s have typically failed to do so, going 6-11 SU (-5.2 units, ROI: -30.6%) and 5-12 (-8.95 units, ROI: -52.6%) on run lines in their last 17 tries
– Game 6s have belonged to home teams since 2006, as they have gone 16-5 outright (+9.88 units, ROI: 47%) and on run lines (+14.35 units, ROI: 68.3%)
– Game 6 favorites have gone just 9-16 SU (-15.02 units, ROI: -60.1%) since 2003 in the LCS round
– Not surprisingly, Unders have been the total of choice in Game 7s recently, with that option on totals going 8-3 (+4.55 units, ROI: 41.4%) in the last 11.