adding...
Monday, September 16
New York Jets +6.5 (10 Units)
The Cleveland Browns were a team I targeted in this spot before the start of Week 2 but as I got to watch some of the games this weekend and as I start to get a feel for things, I just can't back them to win by this much on the road. Hear me out. I did a lot of research the last couple of days. Baker Mayfield was 6-0 ATS in college (Oklahoma and Texas Tech combined) as a road favorite with big wins over the likes of West Virginia (twice), TCU, Kansas State, Tennessee and SMU. Not really relevant in the NFL though because defenses are a lot better. The Browns were awful last week getting blown out by the Titans 43-13 at home in a very hyped up and anticipated season debut with their superstar players. The Browns actually did not play that poorly outyarding the Titans by 7 total yards in that game. One of the reasons I hesitated on betting the Jets earlier today is because of CJ Mosley being out. He was an absolute monster on the field for the Jets last week and the Jets led by more than two touchdowns before he went down. After that they allowed 17 unanswered and lost. The Browns offense managed 346 total yards and 6.0 yards per play in their opener and the Jets allowed 6.0 yards per play against the Bills. Those numbers are a bit flawed though because Mosley's exit really threw this defense off but now they've had more than a week to prepare. The Browns offensive line was a big time mess last week allowing 5 sacks and which turned into 3 interceptions. I'm not sure how anything thinks things will get better for this Browns offense against a Jets defense that had 3 interceptions last week and 2 fumble recoveries. Bills QB Josh Allen had a QB Rating of only 69.9 in that game. Baker Mayfield's QB Rating in his season and home opener was 59.9 last week. The Browns converted only 10% of their third down chances and took 18 penalties which cost them 182 penalty yards!!! This is not stuff you can fix overnight and although Mosley is not playing tonight he probably had an impact on the preparations for this game having played the Browns before.
The New York Jets will be without their starting QB Sam Darnold who is out with mono so when I heard that QB Trevor Siemian was starting in his place, I immediately thought about betting on the Browns but the NFL is not that simple and neither is going on the road and winning by almost a touchdown. The Jets were embarrassed at home in their season/home opener by a very stingy Bills team and now they have to try and avoid an 0-2 start without their prized quarterback. Big loss? Maybe if his name was Drew Brees but Darnold threw for only 155 yards and 5.5 yards per pass attempt in the opener and had a QB Rating of 82.9 (still much better than Baker last week). In comes Siemian who has not appeared in a game since the 2017 season when he was with the Denver Broncos. I went back and looked at some stats and in his career Trevor Siemian has played in 2 Monday Night Football Games. In 2016, Siemian passed for 157 yards, 1 touchdown and a QB Rating of 88.2 in a 27-9 Monday Night Home win over the Houston Texans. In 2017 he also started a Monday Night Football Game and passed for 219 yards with 2 touchdowns, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 94.2 in a 24-21 win over the San Diego Chargers. My point here is that this moment is not too big for him. He still has a Pro Bowl running back in Leveon Bell who looked great at times last week against a VERY tough Bills run defense. What you need to know about the Browns defense is that they are without LB Adarius Taylor and S Damarious Randall tonight. Last week they allowed 5.1 yards per carry on the ground and allowed QB Marcus Mariota to throw for 216 passing yards on 9.0 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 127.8. If you saw Mariota this week against the Colts, it's hard to believe. The Jets don't have the high profile WR's like the Browns do but Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder, Demayrius Thomas are all very good and capable. The Browns defense forced 0 turnovers last week (compared to the Jets who forced 5) and although they recorded 4 sacks, I just don't buy it. I expect a much more spirited effort from this Browns D but it may not be good enough.
So far in Week 2 the underdogs are 2-0 ATS and SU in primetime games so with everyone banking on the Browns to win tonight...I just don't see it being that easy. Adam Gase knows how big this game is for his Jets team because 1) they want to avoid the 0-2 start at home and on the season and 2) their next opponents are the Patriots, Eagles, Cowboys and Patriots again. Momentum wise they need to be competitive tonight to have a shot in those games. We can't forget that the Jets were winning 16-0 for the entire game last week. Now that they've adjusted off the field to CJ Mosley being out we should see a different resilience from this defense. Cleveland is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a double digit loss at home and they have covered the spread in only 13 of their last 46 games following a straight up loss. The Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Monday Night Games and overall have covered the spread in only 19 of their last 59 games. You just can't back them to win by this much on the road in the NFL. The Jets are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six September Home Games as an underdog dating back to 2008. The streak of the favorite covering the spread in this series is at 9 and I don't see it being extened. I also don't expect too much scoring in this one and that means the Jets have a good chance to win or cover with a couple of scores. Expect both defenses to really improve on last week's laughable performances. The trifecta of Primetime Underdog covers will be completed tonight.
Trend of the Game: NY Jets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six September Home Games as an underdog dating back to 2008.
NY Jets 13, Cleveland 10
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!!!
:toast:
Monday, September 16
New York Jets +6.5 (10 Units)
The Cleveland Browns were a team I targeted in this spot before the start of Week 2 but as I got to watch some of the games this weekend and as I start to get a feel for things, I just can't back them to win by this much on the road. Hear me out. I did a lot of research the last couple of days. Baker Mayfield was 6-0 ATS in college (Oklahoma and Texas Tech combined) as a road favorite with big wins over the likes of West Virginia (twice), TCU, Kansas State, Tennessee and SMU. Not really relevant in the NFL though because defenses are a lot better. The Browns were awful last week getting blown out by the Titans 43-13 at home in a very hyped up and anticipated season debut with their superstar players. The Browns actually did not play that poorly outyarding the Titans by 7 total yards in that game. One of the reasons I hesitated on betting the Jets earlier today is because of CJ Mosley being out. He was an absolute monster on the field for the Jets last week and the Jets led by more than two touchdowns before he went down. After that they allowed 17 unanswered and lost. The Browns offense managed 346 total yards and 6.0 yards per play in their opener and the Jets allowed 6.0 yards per play against the Bills. Those numbers are a bit flawed though because Mosley's exit really threw this defense off but now they've had more than a week to prepare. The Browns offensive line was a big time mess last week allowing 5 sacks and which turned into 3 interceptions. I'm not sure how anything thinks things will get better for this Browns offense against a Jets defense that had 3 interceptions last week and 2 fumble recoveries. Bills QB Josh Allen had a QB Rating of only 69.9 in that game. Baker Mayfield's QB Rating in his season and home opener was 59.9 last week. The Browns converted only 10% of their third down chances and took 18 penalties which cost them 182 penalty yards!!! This is not stuff you can fix overnight and although Mosley is not playing tonight he probably had an impact on the preparations for this game having played the Browns before.
The New York Jets will be without their starting QB Sam Darnold who is out with mono so when I heard that QB Trevor Siemian was starting in his place, I immediately thought about betting on the Browns but the NFL is not that simple and neither is going on the road and winning by almost a touchdown. The Jets were embarrassed at home in their season/home opener by a very stingy Bills team and now they have to try and avoid an 0-2 start without their prized quarterback. Big loss? Maybe if his name was Drew Brees but Darnold threw for only 155 yards and 5.5 yards per pass attempt in the opener and had a QB Rating of 82.9 (still much better than Baker last week). In comes Siemian who has not appeared in a game since the 2017 season when he was with the Denver Broncos. I went back and looked at some stats and in his career Trevor Siemian has played in 2 Monday Night Football Games. In 2016, Siemian passed for 157 yards, 1 touchdown and a QB Rating of 88.2 in a 27-9 Monday Night Home win over the Houston Texans. In 2017 he also started a Monday Night Football Game and passed for 219 yards with 2 touchdowns, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 94.2 in a 24-21 win over the San Diego Chargers. My point here is that this moment is not too big for him. He still has a Pro Bowl running back in Leveon Bell who looked great at times last week against a VERY tough Bills run defense. What you need to know about the Browns defense is that they are without LB Adarius Taylor and S Damarious Randall tonight. Last week they allowed 5.1 yards per carry on the ground and allowed QB Marcus Mariota to throw for 216 passing yards on 9.0 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 127.8. If you saw Mariota this week against the Colts, it's hard to believe. The Jets don't have the high profile WR's like the Browns do but Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder, Demayrius Thomas are all very good and capable. The Browns defense forced 0 turnovers last week (compared to the Jets who forced 5) and although they recorded 4 sacks, I just don't buy it. I expect a much more spirited effort from this Browns D but it may not be good enough.
So far in Week 2 the underdogs are 2-0 ATS and SU in primetime games so with everyone banking on the Browns to win tonight...I just don't see it being that easy. Adam Gase knows how big this game is for his Jets team because 1) they want to avoid the 0-2 start at home and on the season and 2) their next opponents are the Patriots, Eagles, Cowboys and Patriots again. Momentum wise they need to be competitive tonight to have a shot in those games. We can't forget that the Jets were winning 16-0 for the entire game last week. Now that they've adjusted off the field to CJ Mosley being out we should see a different resilience from this defense. Cleveland is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a double digit loss at home and they have covered the spread in only 13 of their last 46 games following a straight up loss. The Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Monday Night Games and overall have covered the spread in only 19 of their last 59 games. You just can't back them to win by this much on the road in the NFL. The Jets are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six September Home Games as an underdog dating back to 2008. The streak of the favorite covering the spread in this series is at 9 and I don't see it being extened. I also don't expect too much scoring in this one and that means the Jets have a good chance to win or cover with a couple of scores. Expect both defenses to really improve on last week's laughable performances. The trifecta of Primetime Underdog covers will be completed tonight.
Trend of the Game: NY Jets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six September Home Games as an underdog dating back to 2008.
NY Jets 13, Cleveland 10
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!!!
:toast:
