Mistaflava's 2019 NFL Record: 6-5-1 ATS (+51.00 Units)
Mistaflava's 2019 NFL *BIG PLAYS*: 3-0 ATS (+75.00 Units)
The NFL Season is back and although I didn't post too much in 2018 I'll be back and posting here every week in 2019. Hopefully we can have some good discussions, banter, info sharing and all that good stuff forums are made for. I can handle the criticism and the praise one in the same so I encourage comments of any kind.
Wishing everyone a profitable and great 2019 NFL Season!
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Thursday, September 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 (10 Units)
The Tampa Bay Buccanneers were not supposed to be a good team in 2019 and they lived up to those expectations in Week 1 of the season with their loss to the San Francisco 49ers at home as a 1 point home favorite. The scoreline in that game says 31-17 and that's why the Bucs are a touchdown underdog in this game but the actually outyarded the 49ers in that game and probably deserved better on the scoredboard. This Todd Bowles defense was not supposed to be 31 points bad but wait until we discuss stats. Offensively, the last time QB Jameis Winston played here in Carolina he had a very good game and the Buccaneers managed to lose by only 3 points as a 10 point road dog. He threw for 367 passing yards and completed 21 of his 27 pass attempts. WR Mike Evans had a monster 100+ yard game and WR Chris Godwin had 3 receptions for 98 yards. The last time Tampa Bay was here was in November 2018 and they got crushed 42-28 but that was with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Prior to the 2017 game, Winston and the Bucs went to Carolina in 2016 and won 17-14 as a 6 point road underdog. You get my drift. The Buccaneers offense wasn't very good against the Niners totalling only 295 yards of offense on 4.8 yards per play but the Panthers defense allowed 349 total yards on 4.9 yards per play in their opener. The Bucs actually ran the ball well averaging 4.7 yards per carry and that's going to be an issue for a Carolina D that was gashed for 166 rushing yards and 5.2 yards per carry. In the air QB Jameis Winston could not have had a worst game finishing with a QB Rating of 43.1 while passing for 174 yards, 4.8 yards per pass attempt and 3 interceptions. He was also sacked 3 times and made bad decisions. Having said that, he always plays well against the Panthers and Carolina managed only 1 QB sack last week and he should have an opportunity to make plays. The big problem for Carolina was 3rd downs as they allowed the Rams to convert on 52.9% of their chances in Week 1 and the Buccaneers converted 45.5% of the time on offense. I like the Bucs offense tonight.
The Carolina Panthers are no longer in the upper echelon of the NFL when it comes to teams competing for a Super Bowl. That window has somewhat passed and the only thing keeping their dreams of making the playoffs alive is RB Christian McCaffrey and his freakish abilities. Without him who knows where this team would be. I mean they did go toe-to-toe with the 2018 Super Bowl Finalist Rams and defending NFC Champions at home but once again their inability to stop opponents has to be a concern. People tend to forget that this is somewhat of a rivalry and these two teams have played some close games. Let's evaluate the Bucs D versus this powerful Panthers offense. Carolina scored 27 points against one of the top defenses in the league last week and did it on 343 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. Impressive stuff. However, Todd Bowles is a very good defensive coach and the 31 points allowed to San Francisco were a result of the 3 Jameis Winston interceptions and the 4 overall turnovers. This defense allowed only 256 total yards last week on 4.3 yards per play in that game. The Panthers averaged 5.5 yards per carry in that game and ran all over the Rams D-Line but the Buccaneers defensive line allowed only 98 rushing yards on 3.1 yards per carry in Week 1. They are a solid unit. In the air QB Cam Newton was decent but not that good. He had a QB Rating of 69.6 while throwing for 216 passing yards and connecting on 25 of his 38 attempts for 5.7 yards per pass attempt. He was sacked 3 times and threw 1 interception while the Panthers turned the ball over 3 times total. This Bucs defense forced 2 turnovers last week and held QB Jimmy Garoppolo to a QB Rating of 78.9 while allowing only 5.9 yards per pass attempt on 158 passing yards. The Bucs D allowed San Francisco to convert only 38.5% of the time on third downs and I think are one of the more underrated units of all the bottom tier teams in the NFL right now.
I will say it agai, this is a divisional matchup that has somewhat turned into a rivalry over the years. They play each other twice a year and know each other well. For those teams expected to finish in the bottom tier of the NFL I think 7 points is way too much man. Dating back to last season Tampa Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up loss. They are also an impressive 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a double digit loss at home and are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Week 2 games. The reason I'm not going big? Well Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in their last five Thursday Night Football Games. Carolina is 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday Night Football Games. Something has to give. The Panthers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall dating back to 2018 and unlike Tampa Bay they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven coming off a loss. The UNDERDOG is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the ROAD TEAM has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings. 7 points is way too much. Bucs cover and maybe win.
Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a double digit home loss.
Tampa Bay 24, Carolina 21
more to come..
Mistaflava's 2019 NFL *BIG PLAYS*: 3-0 ATS (+75.00 Units)
The NFL Season is back and although I didn't post too much in 2018 I'll be back and posting here every week in 2019. Hopefully we can have some good discussions, banter, info sharing and all that good stuff forums are made for. I can handle the criticism and the praise one in the same so I encourage comments of any kind.
Wishing everyone a profitable and great 2019 NFL Season!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, September 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 (10 Units)
The Tampa Bay Buccanneers were not supposed to be a good team in 2019 and they lived up to those expectations in Week 1 of the season with their loss to the San Francisco 49ers at home as a 1 point home favorite. The scoreline in that game says 31-17 and that's why the Bucs are a touchdown underdog in this game but the actually outyarded the 49ers in that game and probably deserved better on the scoredboard. This Todd Bowles defense was not supposed to be 31 points bad but wait until we discuss stats. Offensively, the last time QB Jameis Winston played here in Carolina he had a very good game and the Buccaneers managed to lose by only 3 points as a 10 point road dog. He threw for 367 passing yards and completed 21 of his 27 pass attempts. WR Mike Evans had a monster 100+ yard game and WR Chris Godwin had 3 receptions for 98 yards. The last time Tampa Bay was here was in November 2018 and they got crushed 42-28 but that was with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Prior to the 2017 game, Winston and the Bucs went to Carolina in 2016 and won 17-14 as a 6 point road underdog. You get my drift. The Buccaneers offense wasn't very good against the Niners totalling only 295 yards of offense on 4.8 yards per play but the Panthers defense allowed 349 total yards on 4.9 yards per play in their opener. The Bucs actually ran the ball well averaging 4.7 yards per carry and that's going to be an issue for a Carolina D that was gashed for 166 rushing yards and 5.2 yards per carry. In the air QB Jameis Winston could not have had a worst game finishing with a QB Rating of 43.1 while passing for 174 yards, 4.8 yards per pass attempt and 3 interceptions. He was also sacked 3 times and made bad decisions. Having said that, he always plays well against the Panthers and Carolina managed only 1 QB sack last week and he should have an opportunity to make plays. The big problem for Carolina was 3rd downs as they allowed the Rams to convert on 52.9% of their chances in Week 1 and the Buccaneers converted 45.5% of the time on offense. I like the Bucs offense tonight.
The Carolina Panthers are no longer in the upper echelon of the NFL when it comes to teams competing for a Super Bowl. That window has somewhat passed and the only thing keeping their dreams of making the playoffs alive is RB Christian McCaffrey and his freakish abilities. Without him who knows where this team would be. I mean they did go toe-to-toe with the 2018 Super Bowl Finalist Rams and defending NFC Champions at home but once again their inability to stop opponents has to be a concern. People tend to forget that this is somewhat of a rivalry and these two teams have played some close games. Let's evaluate the Bucs D versus this powerful Panthers offense. Carolina scored 27 points against one of the top defenses in the league last week and did it on 343 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. Impressive stuff. However, Todd Bowles is a very good defensive coach and the 31 points allowed to San Francisco were a result of the 3 Jameis Winston interceptions and the 4 overall turnovers. This defense allowed only 256 total yards last week on 4.3 yards per play in that game. The Panthers averaged 5.5 yards per carry in that game and ran all over the Rams D-Line but the Buccaneers defensive line allowed only 98 rushing yards on 3.1 yards per carry in Week 1. They are a solid unit. In the air QB Cam Newton was decent but not that good. He had a QB Rating of 69.6 while throwing for 216 passing yards and connecting on 25 of his 38 attempts for 5.7 yards per pass attempt. He was sacked 3 times and threw 1 interception while the Panthers turned the ball over 3 times total. This Bucs defense forced 2 turnovers last week and held QB Jimmy Garoppolo to a QB Rating of 78.9 while allowing only 5.9 yards per pass attempt on 158 passing yards. The Bucs D allowed San Francisco to convert only 38.5% of the time on third downs and I think are one of the more underrated units of all the bottom tier teams in the NFL right now.
I will say it agai, this is a divisional matchup that has somewhat turned into a rivalry over the years. They play each other twice a year and know each other well. For those teams expected to finish in the bottom tier of the NFL I think 7 points is way too much man. Dating back to last season Tampa Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up loss. They are also an impressive 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a double digit loss at home and are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Week 2 games. The reason I'm not going big? Well Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in their last five Thursday Night Football Games. Carolina is 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday Night Football Games. Something has to give. The Panthers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall dating back to 2018 and unlike Tampa Bay they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven coming off a loss. The UNDERDOG is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the ROAD TEAM has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings. 7 points is way too much. Bucs cover and maybe win.
Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a double digit home loss.
Tampa Bay 24, Carolina 21
more to come..