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Nebrask Cornhuskers -13 (10 Units)
Flave wtf are you doing exactly? I know some asked that earlier today when I was on Bowling Green, BYU and probably West Virginia but just hear me out about this Nebraska team. I didn't want to touch them early in the season because I knew it would take some time for Scott Frost to get these guys on the right page but if you follow college football experts you will know that the Cornhuskers were picked as the #1 Most Improved Team in college football for 2019. That never works right away but three weeks in and three games in, it's time to bet on these guys. The Huskers weren't very good against South Alabama or at Colorado to open the season but their 44-8 beatdown of Northern Illinois at home last week was a sign for me. It was the first time all season that Nebraska really outyarded their opponent (175 total yards) and they easily covered the spread. The Huskers come into this game averaging a crazy 36.7 points per game this season on 423.3 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. Jesus. Illinois, who have yet to see a real offense this season, have allowed 20.0 points per game and 319 total yards of offense on 4.7 yards per play. In the Big 10 last season Illinois allowed a crazy 265 rushing yards per game and that's going to be a problem if Nebraska and their 4.2 yards per carry this season start reeling off big runs. I know the Illini have allowed only 2.2 yards per carry this season but Conference play is about to change that. In the air Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez has made some huge plays completing 60.0% of his passes for 9.7 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 153.5 on the year. Illinois has yet to see a real offense this season but have still given up massive plays in the air and are allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt. I'm telling you right now the Huskers are going to score multiple touchdowns of 40+ yards either on the ground or in the air. As long as the Huskers can clean up the turnovers they should be winning this game by 25+. The last time they were here was in 2017 and they outyarded Illinois 411-199 in that game and won 28-6. Expect much of the same.
The Illinois Fighting Illini are not a good football team and unlike their 4-8 counterparts Nebraska from one season ago, they do not have one of the most improved teams in the Country coming into this game. As a matter of fact after giving Akron a beatdown in their opening game of the season, Illinois have looked awful in their last two games barely beating Connecticut on the road as a -21 point road favorite and then losing to Eastern Michigan at home on this field last week as a -7 point favorite. Illinois is only 1-5 SU against Nebraska as Big 10 Conference programs and I don't see that changing tonight. Don't get me wrong this team can put points on the board but they'll struggle to keep up with the Huskers. So far this season Illinois is averaging 34.7 points per game and averaging 408.3 total yards of offense on 5.7 yards per play. Nebraska's defense continues to improve under DC Erik Chinander and they have allowed only 21 points per game coming into this game on 376 total yards of offense and only 4.7 yards per play. Much like Illinois this season the Huskers have not allowed anything on the ground and opponents are averaging 82 rushing yards per game on 2.2 yards per carry this season. We all know Illinois can run the ball and they've averaged 4.3 yards per carry this season but to even come close they will have to have success passing the ball. QB Brandon Peters (former Michigan QB) has been pretty damn good to say the least completing 63.2% of his passes for 7.2 yards per pass attempt this season with 9 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 151.0 on the year. Having said that, he has been sacked 10 times in three games now and the offensive line has really struggled. That's bad news because Nebraska's pass rush is starting to find their footing and they have 9 sacks in three games this season. This defense also has 5 interceptions in three games and have forced 4 fumbles and recovere all four of them to make them one of the best turnovers defenses in the Nation so far this season. Illinois is a team that lacks major discipline and who average 8.3 penalties per game this season which has cost them 84.3 penalty yards per game. Nebraska on the other hand average only 5.3 penalties per game. That's huge.
Okay so looking back at the battle of 4-8 teams last season we all saw Nebraska just demolish Illinois at home 54-35 as a -17 point favorite in that game. Being one of the most improved teams in the Nation has earned them a similar spread on the road heading into this year's game. The Huskers faltered in their first try as a road favorite two weeks ago at Colorado but two weeks later they are much improved and much more experienced. The Huskers come into this game 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games versus Big 10 Conference opponnets under Scott Frost and they are facing an Illinois team that is a pathetic 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Illinois is only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven Big 10 Conference games. This could be a slow start for Nebraska but once they take over on both sides the ball they should be able to score 40 again. I'm going with a big Nebraska win before they host Ohio State next week in what should be a great game. The Buckeyes made a statement today, now it's Nebraska's turn. Huskers big.
Trend of the Game: Nebraska is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven Big 10 Conference games.
Nebraska 42, Illinois 20
more to come...